Is the return to normalcy imminent?

[chapmpe]

Originally Posted by EverCloserUnion

Agree. One of the great things about a Rolex is that you can ease yourself into the purchase by reminding yourself that your net worth isn't really shifting. As you say, that can't be said about GS or Omega in general.

Meanwhile, those who treat issues like net worth with disdain have the grey market to fall back on.

I agree with this too. If you can get some good stuff at retail you know your money is pretty safe even wearing them quite a bit down the road and you can find your next purchase. An omega or iwc you are at 40% off pretty easily if you hunt around a bit which makes a retail purchase tougher in my mind

[Tricolore66]

I don't think asking prices tell the story. There are a staggering 958 116500's on Chrono24 right now, most are BNIB. If you want to know where the market really is, call 3 trusted sellers and try to sell your 116500. That will tell you everything you need to know about the market. My guess is dealers probably aren't paying much more than $20k for them. With that many for sale, if you're tying up cash in a watch with 958 comps for sale, you're not buying at what you think you can sell it for today and make money, you're buying at where you think the market will be in six months.

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

I'm still seeing $30K Panda's which is kind of surprising. It's a great watch, just wonder who's paying that right now..

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Is the return to normalcy imminent?

No.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

I don't think asking prices tell the story. There are a staggering 958 116500's on Chrono24 right now, most are BNIB. If you want to know where the market really is, call 3 trusted sellers and try to sell your 116500. That will tell you everything you need to know about the market. My guess is dealers probably aren't paying much more than $20k for them. With that many for sale, if you're tying up cash in a watch with 958 comps for sale, you're not buying at what you think you can sell it for today and make money, you're buying at where you think the market will be in six months.

Panda buy rate is around $25k. Sell rate is around 26-27k

[superpop]

Unfortunately what is happening now is that the unsavory underbelly of society is now hip to Rolex and are targeting people for their watches. I am hearing more and more stories of muggings and home invasions for the purpose of stealing a Rolex. This issue alone will, in my opinion, kill the market. I have personally kind of lost interest in my small collection as I have to worry about it when leaving my house. More and more people are going to move on to something more stealth and that will kill the hype train for most if not all models. It is no fun to drive around in a nice car or wear a nice piece of jewelry if you are constantly watching your 6. Thief's now realize that there are actually people walking around with literally thousands of dollars worth of an easily sellable watch on their wrist, all they have to do is follow them and wait for the right opportunity to strike. No thanks.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

Panda buy rate is around $25k. Sell rate is around 26-27k

This is correct. Add ~3k for 12 series white, or it’s the close to the same as above for 12 series black.

It is pretty accurate to get ‘real’ pricing by seeing legit buy offers. These people claiming it’s all a charade are being silly. People are still buying watches they don’t want if greys offer them $1k cash profit on top for a flip. The ‘normal’ will never return while this exists, and there’s a longggggg way to go before this would happen.

[njlam]

Originally Posted by superpop

Unfortunately what is happening now is that the unsavory underbelly of society is now hip to Rolex and are targeting people for their watches. I am hearing more and more stories of muggings and home invasions for the purpose of stealing a Rolex. This issue alone will, in my opinion, kill the market. I have personally kind of lost interest in my small collection as I have to worry about it when leaving my house. More and more people are going to move on to something more stealth and that will kill the hype train for most if not all models. It is no fun to drive around in a nice car or wear a nice piece of jewelry if you are constantly watching your 6. Thief's now realize that there are actually people walking around with literally thousands of dollars worth of an easily sellable watch on their wrist, all they have to do is follow them and wait for the right opportunity to strike. No thanks.

In addition to the potential crime, it is so hard to get a Rolex these days, I am not liking the message it sends to have one...either a groveling brown noser at an AD or overpaying at a grey....it has driven me to consider other brands/types of watches. Anyone else feel this way?

[garyk]

Just done, holding what I’ve managed to buy and keep…

[omar-rye]

Originally Posted by superpop

Unfortunately what is happening now is that the unsavory underbelly of society is now hip to Rolex and are targeting people for their watches. I am hearing more and more stories of muggings and home invasions for the purpose of stealing a Rolex. This issue alone will, in my opinion, kill the market. I have personally kind of lost interest in my small collection as I have to worry about it when leaving my house. More and more people are going to move on to something more stealth and that will kill the hype train for most if not all models. It is no fun to drive around in a nice car or wear a nice piece of jewelry if you are constantly watching your 6. Thief's now realize that there are actually people walking around with literally thousands of dollars worth of an easily sellable watch on their wrist, all they have to do is follow them and wait for the right opportunity to strike. No thanks.

Yesterday, the news in LA showed a group of people swarming a 7-Eleven. They recorded themselves during the incident, and the footage aired on the news. I was shocked by what they took after a confrontation with the clerk, who tried to fend them off with a wooden stick. One person grabbed a display of lighters, probably totalling no more than $25, another took a bag of chips and two bottles of Sprite, and someone else took a tub of ice cream. My point is, this isn’t just about people targeting luxury watches anymore, but rather a sign that society has completely lost its mind. The absurdity of what was stolen highlights that this isn’t just about theft, but about deeper societal issues. These troubling incidents are reflections of social decline and irrational behaviour.

[ColoradoTime]

Genuinely curious how you guys know what the current “buy” offers are for those Daytonas?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dmash]

Originally Posted by ColoradoTime

Genuinely curious how you guys know what the current “buy” offers are for those Daytonas?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

‘Hey xxxx, I have a 2024 126500ln full set, excellent condition, what would you offer’


………..

[4reRlxGuy]

Originally Posted by njlam

In addition to the potential crime, it is so hard to get a Rolex these days, I am not liking the message it sends to have one...either a groveling brown noser at an AD or overpaying at a grey....it has driven me to consider other brands/types of watches. Anyone else feel this way?

After collecting primarily rolex for 30+ years I'm moving on. Unlike AP that keeps data on your purchases with Rolex you're starting over if your AD loses their account.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

My guess is dealers probably aren't paying much more than $20k for them.

This is 100% not correct, you're at least 20% off.

I'm not even a grey dealer or have a bunch of wholesale connects, but I know plenty of guys who would buy a BNIB '22 or '23 116500 panda for 24k, within minutes. That's an incredibly easy wholesale flip for 25-25.5.

[enjoythemusic]

Of course some here could help the situation by becoming Rolex watchmakers.

My sif file applies.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Yesterday, the news in LA showed a group of people swarming a 7-Eleven. They recorded themselves during the incident, and the footage aired on the news. I was shocked by what they took after a confrontation with the clerk, who tried to fend them off with a wooden stick. One person grabbed a display of lighters, probably totalling no more than $25, another took a bag of chips and two bottles of Sprite, and someone else took a tub of ice cream. My point is, this isn’t just about people targeting luxury watches anymore, but rather a sign that society has completely lost its mind. The absurdity of what was stolen highlights that this isn’t just about theft, but about deeper societal issues. These troubling incidents are reflections of social decline and irrational behaviour.

Well in California it is just a misdemeanor ticket when you shoplift under $950 so it's literally a slap on the wrist.
Oh and you can get an unlimited number of misdemeanor tickets, they will never turn into a felony so the criminals know that and act accordingly.

[gedelix]

i put in an interest list in july 2024 for polar 226570, got a call from AD ready to be picked up in november 2024