Presumably prices should start to move

[Paddydog52]

back up moving forward you would imagine:

https://www.cityam.com/watches-of-sw...-watch-market/

[Vetracer]

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns when people were trapped in their houses with nothing but food, mortgage/ rent and household bills to spend their salaries or stimulus checks on.

Eventually with time, inflation will cause prices to go back to those dizzy heights, but by then a loaf of bread will cost £4 or $4.

[Apdl]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns when people were trapped in their houses with nothing but food, mortgage/ rent and household bills to spend their salaries or stimulus checks on.

Eventually with time, inflation will cause prices to go back to those dizzy heights, but by then a loaf of bread will cost £4 or $4.

Bread does cost $4

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns...

Give it 10 years. :)

Look at home prices, food prices, cars, etc. over time. An SS white face Daytona went for $40k / €35k / £32k in March 2022 could simply mean a decade from today's global currency valuations... it is not a mathematical stretch to think it'll once again be priced at $40k / €35k / £32k in about 10 years.

i do agree we might not see as massive a bubble during the next decade... but hyperinflation tends to happen '''''''slowly''''' at first, then very suddenly. Some mismanaged currencies in 2024 are at ''''the slowly part'''', and so.......


The sum of an imbalanced debt / re-payment / solution equation... is mathematically impossible to solve given the current formula / regime / system. Simply said, inevitability.

[belutak]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns when people were trapped in their houses with nothing but food, mortgage/ rent and household bills to spend their salaries or stimulus checks on.

Eventually with time, inflation will cause prices to go back to those dizzy heights, but by then a loaf of bread will cost £4 or $4.

LoL! in Australia it already costs twice that!


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[BillA]

I would like to see a few quarters of sales results before saying things are ticking back up.

[Calatrava r]

My sense of it is used/secondhand prices have fallen as much as they are going to and will drift up into year-end and the new year. There is some uncertainty now which will go away once the interest rate trends are better known. The only certainty is Rolex will raise the MSRP at some point soon.

[007_Omega]

I still think the used market is on a downward trend. I’m not talking about nosedive or anything like that but it’s trickling down.

The watch market is in a tricky situation. I genuinely think the brands raised their prices too much.


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[4reRlxGuy]

I have 2 ADs I work with. One SA whom I've work with longer has told me this summer's sales have been very slow. Only the desirable pieces sell.

The other tells me everything is fine and has only offered precious metal pieces this year.

[PaulMiami]

https://subdial.com/market

Not a great looking chart …. Grey market is full of inventory and ADs are also beginning to fill up. That little blip up in the chart in the last few weeks is not very meaningful

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by PaulMiami

https://subdial.com/market

Not a great looking chart …. Grey market is full of inventory and ADs are also beginning to fill up. That little blip up in the chart in the last few weeks is not very meaningful

Agreed. Bundling isn’t as sexy as it once was for those looking to make a quick buck on a flip.

I’m also wondering how the lab created diamond market is affecting bundling at all. Before if you bought the higher margin overpriced diamonds you’d get the hot model in a few a months. Now the young kids seem to be buying lab grown


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[NigeG]

Put a positive spin on it whenever possible WoS. More and more pre owned dealers are cutting prices. AD’s have shorter waitlists for some models, definitely anything two tone is much easier to obtain.


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[jb335]

Market seems stable to me. I doubt any large movement in any direction.

Just a slight uptick through the last quarter and early next year…like always.

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[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Paddydog52

back up moving forward you would imagine:

https://www.cityam.com/watches-of-sw...-watch-market/

So, a business that sells watches and has a vested interest says ‘nothing to see here, sales will be on the rise’…..huh

Pre owned market is still dropping, not by a crazy amount, but its not bottomed yet

https://watchcharts.com/

[train-time]

I visited my local AD's new flagship store for the first time over the Labor Day weekend. The last time I stopped in was at their old location and a year and a half ago. The new store has a "store within the store" for Rolex with the small cube like cases that sit on counters and some cases in the walls. I was absolutely amazed at the stock! Nearly every model and variations of a model was on display, but all with "Exhibition Only" signs inside of the cases. I recall thinking about how much $$$$ they are sitting on for display only pieces!

[Hemdog]

Originally Posted by train-time

I visited my local AD's new flagship store for the first time over the Labor Day weekend. The last time I stopped in was at their old location and a year and a half ago. The new store has a "store within the store" for Rolex with the small cube like cases that sit on counters and some cases in the walls. I was absolutely amazed at the stock! Nearly every model and variations of a model was on display, but all with "Exhibition Only" signs inside of the cases. I recall thinking about how much $$$$ they are sitting on for display only pieces!

I think the exhibition only watches have already been sold

[NigeG]

Originally Posted by train-time

I visited my local AD's new flagship store for the first time over the Labor Day weekend. The last time I stopped in was at their old location and a year and a half ago. The new store has a "store within the store" for Rolex with the small cube like cases that sit on counters and some cases in the walls. I was absolutely amazed at the stock! Nearly every model and variations of a model was on display, but all with "Exhibition Only" signs inside of the cases. I recall thinking about how much $$$$ they are sitting on for display only pieces!

And pretty much all of those “Exhibition only” pieces are already sold. The AD keeps them on display for 90 days or so until the next sold unit arrives and becomes an exhibition piece.


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[MRBolton]

They said it's within expectations, but perhaps those expectations are lowered.

[Barada7]

Sounds like a luxury watch seller with shareholders to please.

[Kingcobb]

lol...its september, the stock market is red, people are drumming up recession fears again, coming out of a very slow summer, and WoS is trying to claim prices are on the rise....like clockwork.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

lol...its september, the stock market is red, people are drumming up recession fears again, coming out of a very slow summer, and WoS is trying to claim prices are on the rise....like clockwork.

Nope. People feeling better about economy.

[Kingcobb]

Originally Posted by BillA

Nope. People feeling better about economy.

Depends on the people.

Democrats are positive on economy since Harris replaced Biden, Republicans are negative, and independents have stayed flat.

Job market is weakening, stock market is red, and people are freaked out about a recession...necessarily I think, but the worry is there.

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

Depends on the people.

Democrats are positive on economy since Harris replaced Biden, Republicans are negative, and independents have stayed flat.

Job market is weakening, stock market is red, and people are freaked out about a recession...necessarily I think, but the worry is there.

Stock market is red? Can you clarify what you mean by this?

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by BillA

Nope. People feeling better about economy.

In America...maybe?

Germanys Manufacturing base is pretty horrible right now
Frances economy is shakey
China hasnt opened back up or bounced back like people expected
Japans economy is a dumpster fire
Here in the UK we have massive debt both in the publics purse and on the government side which will lead to tax rises and public spending cuts, all while around 2 million people are coming off fixed term mortgages which will see their rates jump from 2% to 5% this year

The shock has gone from high inflation and interest rates, but i suspect the aftershocks are going through us right now. I for one am trying to stay liquid and not spending £££ on wrist trinkets at the moment.

[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by Talon84

In America...maybe?

Germanys Manufacturing base is pretty horrible right now
Frances economy is shakey
China hasnt opened back up or bounced back like people expected
Japans economy is a dumpster fire
Here in the UK we have massive debt both in the publics purse and on the government side which will lead to tax rises and public spending cuts, all while around 2 million people are coming off fixed term mortgages which will see their rates jump from 2% to 5% this year

The shock has gone from high inflation and interest rates, but i suspect the aftershocks are going through us right now. I for one am trying to stay liquid and not spending £££ on wrist trinkets at the moment.

This about sums it up this side of the pond.

[~JJ]

No, my magic eight ball says hyped items never return to their glory days.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

No, my magic eight ball says hyped items never return to their glory days.

I agree, on an inflation-adjusted basis. Unless we have economic conditions similar to what happened to Covid.

And tastes change

[pepemaui]

Hello….

Finance is cyclical…..

It took years for this watch market to peak. It will take years to get to the true bottom. In my estimation we’re just not there, maybe not even close to the bottom yet.

[ColoradoTime]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Hello….

Finance is cyclical…..

It took years for this watch market to peak. It will take years to get to the true bottom. In my estimation we’re just not there, maybe not even close to the bottom yet.

I agree with this 100%. I think we are still on a steady, slow decline.


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[bp1000]

I'd ignore these articles.

Their stock took a battering, PR is just a tool they use to try and give confidence.

In reality, buyer behaviour is quite similar to pre c19 now (so normal) but secondary prices are still above the point of expectation, not that far above, but still more than a typical dealer margin - so It will take some time, mainly on the trade in values to further correct.

You can see this because stock is sitting longer than it was, people want a better deal but there isn't margin to do it. To test this I had a few trade in values for a variety of watches from Tudor to Patek and they were all conservative, even the Rolex.

In summary, who knows, people will be greedy in future too, but watches have always traded around retail +/- 25% and this is the expectation you should have on most models. Its not profitable, its a hobby, only rare pieces have exponential value, Nautilus and Aquanaut were not always double retail, they were 20% under.