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#1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?
Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?
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#2 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: El Cerrito, CA
Posts: 2,216
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I think most model already bottomed with a few notable exceptions including the Pepsi. The Daytona, the new one, won't go down for a few years, but the last gen one is probably close if not at the bottom imho.
Sent from my SM-S918U1 using Tapatalk |
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#3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Watch: 16750/16800/126710
Posts: 1,420
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Idk. I think the 116500 has room to fall. With Zenith Daytonas in the low 20s, I think the ceramic have room to go down. Either the 16520 is great value or the 500 is expensive.
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#4 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2022
Location: Milky Way
Posts: 181
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#5 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Watch: 16750/16800/126710
Posts: 1,420
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Quote:
https://www.fogcityvintage.com/produ...ith-daytona-5/ There’s a bunch on Moda in high teens/low 20s as well. |
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#6 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2022
Location: Milky Way
Posts: 181
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Quote:
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#7 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2022
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 587
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As more and more people post less and less photos on Facebook, Instagram, etc... or quitting social media completely, the need to "flex" a luxury lifestyle has drastically diminished.
Since the need is diminishing, the market is adgusting. |
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#8 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 11,045
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In the near term, I think used market prices have bottomed out. If those prices were to soften further, demand will soften cascading everything further down. If there is a real cost to accumulating Rolex watches by their depreciation, people will want to own less of them. Life was a lot simpler where all Rolex lost value on the used markets. Demand for new was a lot more stable and manageable.
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#9 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 76,383
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I didn’t know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
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#10 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 11,045
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Before the hype and demand when nuts, the summer months were traditionally a slow period in watch sales. In the past few years there hasn’t been a slow period for the hot brands and models.
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#11 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Odorious Onion
Watch: yes, it's hipster
Posts: 1,587
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They don't follow a "seasonal" trading range like some equities do, but in fairness, watches' market prices mirror other hobbies' pricing. And those cycles can stretch in the years.
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Here come dat boi Jerry |
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#12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Real Name: RJ
Location: UK Coast
Watch: PP/AP/Rolex
Posts: 1,356
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I personally expect them to fall significantly more over the coming months and years.
The whole market was fuelled by a mad hype to own the latest fashion item, a luxury watch, and to make a quick buck by flipping watches. Fashions and fads pass fast. I expect in a few years to see very few active members on here with ‘20-‘22 registered accounts. Next, the profit of flipping is almost entirely gone on most models as the brands maximise their profit, and greys pay low for watches. As such the demand fuelling everything will disappear, and the watches will start to be available at retail more and more readily. This will force grey dealers to drop their prices or else they just won’t sell. Just my view on your Q. ![]() |
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#13 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 1,140
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Quote:
When I saw prices rocket I knew it wouldn’t last. I don’t actively trade in/out of my collectibles so didn’t sell any watches. Same with other things I collect. I also didn’t add anything that fell into a “hype” category. I didn’t entirely stop buying but added nothing people were speculating on. That speculative sub-segment fell back and is (in my view) fully corrected today. There will be some further easing but would be surprised it anything dramatic. I imagine depleted savings for big swaths of the population here in the US will eventually become a real drag (hasn’t happened) but I think for Rolex that hit has already been felt, along some other aspirational luxury goods. The tricky part is that any further macro erosion will support central bank aggression with rate reductions - restarting the cycle. So while we may not be at absolute bottom today it is likely we’re a) not far off and b) as likely to be in a boom cycle again in 24 months from now. |
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#14 | |
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Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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Quote:
I think you’re forgetting a key part of the analysis - that watches as “investments” was the flavor of the month so to speak during COVID. But things fall out of fashion, and it’s becoming ever more apparent that flippers are getting squeezed out. So the demand is not linear. Once we get to a point where folks realize they’re losing money out the door. And we’re getting closer to that every day.
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#15 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: London
Posts: 609
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Erm is this a genuine question
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#16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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#17 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: London
Posts: 609
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#18 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2022
Real Name: Bazil Brush
Location: Star Gazing
Watch: Any Daytona
Posts: 3,339
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Quote:
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#19 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 1,530
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Model dependent, imo. I think the more "recent" (2000s era) 5 digits have some more room to fall. There were too many people that purchased these during the boom years because they couldn't obtain/afford the 6 digits they really wanted OR thinking they were investment pieces that would only keep going up. As some of these people start getting the call for a 6 digit or the 6 digit comes down to a price they can afford, they will keep dumping the 5 digits, along with those people that realize it's not an investment.
There's also just a ton of them on the market, not exactly rare watches. IMO a 16570 Polar should settle down into the 6k range, the black around 5k (mint with papers). 16610 should probably be in the 7-8k range, and the 16710 should come down to 8-9k. I think that would be about the bottom range for these watches. |
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#20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2024
Location: USA
Posts: 32
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I believe the labor market will continue to soften. Several layoff were announced this week and I believe more are to come. Most F500 are reporting earnings in the next few weeks. The results for those that already reported have been mixed so far which could signal trouble ahead.
I don't believe the price correction will be huge tho, for that to happen Rolex needs to overflow the market with subs, gmt, etc. But heck, what do I know :D |
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#21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: sweden
Posts: 125
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NASDAQ closed at all time high yesterday.
We are nowhere near a bottom, of anything. WoS guidance revision and a 36% drop in share prices yesterday should give you a hint on where things are going to go though... |
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#22 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: USA
Watch: All
Posts: 5,212
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It will drop the day people stop feeding it.
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Rolex 228235 DD40 Olive, 126710BLRO, 116710BLNR, 116613LB, 116500LN White, 126610LN, 116500LN Black, 126610LV, 116610LV, 126334 Blue Diamond Breitling Navitimer 01, Cartier Santos Large |
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#23 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: SLC, Utah USA
Posts: 848
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I don't think we are close to the bottom. The labor market as already intimated is far from really posting what is going on. Seasonal labor and second jobs skewing whats out there. Layoffs are coming and maybe "they" will let us know we are probably in a recession. The bets that the Fed were going to lower short term rates in March are a little muddled last 2 weeks and that will tell a lot. The 10 yr is up over 4% again. So in all that gobblygook there is a lot going on. Yes many YouTubers are quitting after covid and the insta crowd so yes personally I see more mov't down. But thats just me and what i look at. Daily
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#24 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 627
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#25 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: USA
Watch: 5513, 16750, AK
Posts: 273
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Quote:
WoS stock hit $18.85, on February 7, 2022. Currently, at/near 52-week low, in the $4 range. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#26 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,995
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
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#27 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
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#28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2023
Real Name: Nadeem
Location: Chicago
Watch: GMT BLNR
Posts: 957
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Quote:
Subs 3-4 month wait and the rest still exclusive with 1+ year waits. |
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#29 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
Watch: SD43
Posts: 3,222
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#30 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: England
Posts: 251
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Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!
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