Do we like Rolex scarcity?

[peterskinner]

Yes, would members prefer a situation where all .....all.....models were freely available from the local AD? Or is scarcity, and the resulting high residuals, a thing to be desired and welcomed?

[Oliver Mendl]

Personally I don't care. But I get a tremendous kick out of watching the craze, celebrating "record breaking" prices/auction results and see people going crazy and speculating about what all of that means.

Kind regards,
Oliver

[greengold]

Originally Posted by peterskinner

Yes, would members prefer a situation where all .....all.....models were freely available from the local AD? Or is scarcity, and the resulting high residuals, a thing to be desired and welcomed?

Of course we like it. Means our purchase holds its value and long term is an investment.

[Tomas Eriksson]

Originally Posted by greengold

Of course we like it. Means our purchase holds its value and long term is an investment.

agreed

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by greengold

Of course we like it. Means our purchase holds its value and long term is an investment.

Thank you. This.

And it's not hurting dealers. Dealers are selling more than ever. It may be annoying to salespeople who constantly have to turn customers away and answer 50 questions a day, but they're selling just as many or more than ever due to the supremely high demand and hype out there.

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by greengold

Of course we like it. Means our purchase holds its value and long term is an investment.

Sure do.

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by greengold

Of course we like it. Means our purchase holds its value and long term is an investment.

This

[42itus]

I personally don’t like it. But one good thing to come out of it is that it’s opened my eyes to other brands.

[Alex71168]

If they were freely available then you’d be upset paying a lot for a watch and see the value falling!

[Singslinger]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

If they were freely available then you’d be upset paying a lot for a watch and see the value falling!

Very true.

[peterskinner]

Well yes, but then why all the threads complaining about the lack of supply? It can sound as if people want shortages, but not for them.....

[Lemieux66]

Originally Posted by peterskinner

Well yes, but then why all the threads complaining about the lack of supply? It can sound as if people want shortages, but not for them.....

With the grey prices so high, people want to buy at MSRP instead because it’s both easy to flip for profit and a no risk purchase you can enjoy for years, so they decry the ‘shortage’ which they feel is cheating them out of a bargain. Then once/if they manage to buy a SS piece at MSRP they’re, of course, very pleased with the situation! Those who got in the game early and held onto pieces have done well.

Before the shortage/demand issues I was often told it was daft to buy at an AD as it was cheaper at grey dealers and that the ‘AD experience’ wasn’t worth the difference in cost!

Bottom line is, people wants the lowest price at purchase time, and the best chance of residual value once purchased.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by Lemieux66

With the grey prices so high, people want to buy at MSRP instead because it’s both easy to flip for profit and a no risk purchase you can enjoy for years, so they decry the ‘shortage’ which they feel is cheating them out of a bargain. Then once/if they manage to buy a SS piece at MSRP they’re, of course, very pleased with the situation! Those who got in the game early and held onto pieces have done well.



Before the shortage/demand issues I was often told it was daft to buy at an AD as it was cheaper at grey dealers and that the ‘AD experience’ wasn’t worth the difference in cost!



Bottom line is, people wants the lowest price at purchase time, and the best chance of residual value once purchased.

This about sums it up. It wasn’t that long before all this maddened started. Threads were quite different but had the same overtones. People asked about AD discounts, and value of buying from AD vs. gray instead of lack of stock and crazy gray market prices. It’s funny because people used to complain about buying a SS Rolex at msrp. Now they complain that they can’t get one for msrp. It’s all relative and the scarcity has opened a Pandora’s box of new rules and new ways of judging what is value. But I think more people can associate with more chance of equity than a watch that drops 20% after being purchased. So this market is actually helping most people.

[Motik]

Originally Posted by peterskinner

Well yes, but then why all the threads complaining about the lack of supply? It can sound as if people want shortages, but not for them.....

Or they just want to buy a watch.

[42itus]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

If they were freely available then you’d be upset paying a lot for a watch and see the value falling!

And yet I continue to purchase Omega.


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[APPRF]

Yes I like it, even though the only watch I managed to get from my rolex wish list in three months was the Chnr TT Root Beer.

[myusernamez]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

If they were freely available then you’d be upset paying a lot for a watch and see the value falling!

if they were most would not have bought one because it was a bad "investment"

I can't wait for all these watches to come back on the market at half price, in the meanwhile, I am taking my money somewhere else.

And as for scarity -- there can't be scarity when its a mass produced watch which is still in ... production. A fool and his money .. buying an overpriced item which is still being produced which has zero history just begs for a loss of capital down the line. Rolex was known to hold value and slightly increase over time. Best case you lost a few grand but we were all ready for that. Nowadays they doubled in price in 12 months and 90% of the buyers are going to shit their pants once the price goes down 10% .. can't wait to buy it off all of you at MSRP. That's where I'll get my joy. Bring on that Recession, I'll expand my watch, house, car collection buying it off all these people living on credit.

[FATO]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

if they were most would not have bought one because it was a bad "investment"

I can't wait for all these watches to come back on the market at half price, in the meanwhile, I am taking my money somewhere else.

And as for scarity -- there can't be scarity when its a mass produced watch which is still in ... production. A fool and his money .. buying an overpriced item which is still being produced which has zero history just begs for a loss of capital down the line. Rolex was known to hold value and slightly increase over time. Best case you lost a few grand but we were all ready for that. Nowadays they doubled in price in 12 months and 90% of the buyers are going to shit their pants once the price goes down 10% .. can't wait to buy it off all of you at MSRP. That's where I'll get my joy. Bring on that Recession, I'll expand my watch, house, car collection buying it off all these people living on credit.

This reminds me of the housing bubble. 2005 is when the feeding frenzy started. Everyone and anyone with some kind of a job can get large loans even multimillion dollar loans to compete in bidding wars for limited houses. Some of these people could only afford to pay interest only on their loans. I bought my house from the bank. It was bank owned because the guy who bought this house has an office cleaning business lost his contract and couldn’t afford the interest payment. He bought it for 1.6 million, i got it for $970,000. There are those who lost their house who is humble and know their financial limits but by pure bad luck they lost their job and then their home. These are the people who don’t deserve it. However there are the greedy people whose want to make a quick buck by flipping houses when they don’t have the financial means to do so deserve to lose everything. I feel the same way about the rolex flippers. I also welcome the recession. It will separate the enthusiast from the flippers.

[JePro]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

If they were freely available then you’d be upset paying a lot for a watch and see the value falling!

good point

[Alex71168]

Yes they don’t seem to hold their value ��

[subboi]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

Yes they don’t seem to hold their value ��

Which model do u have ? OP ?

[peterpl]

No I'd rather we as a community and hobby focus less on maintaining value and on the hobby itself. All this is also adding to very very shady deals happening everywhere along with big money laundering activities.

Horology is a hobby and it should remain as one. Turning into a tradable commodity takes the fun out of it as there are now 90% flippers and 10% true watch nuts that are on TRF for the love of watches.

As evident by the threads its all about how much will my $10k watch be worth in 3-4 years. I hope it reaches $20k blah blah blah. Its the same shit over and over and over again by people who just want to make a quick buck.

As soon as the watch game cools all these guys will be long gone and onto the next "hot" commodity trying to make a buck again.

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by peterpl

No I'd rather we as a community and hobby focus less on maintaining value and on the hobby itself.

Couldn't agree more.

Cheers,
Joe

[Monte Cristo]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Turning into a tradable commodity takes the fun out of it as there are now 90% flippers and 10% true watch nuts that are on TRF for the love of watches.

This.

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by Monte Cristo

This.

This, this (is that right?). I admittedly like being considered a VIP in situations like this, but the environment brings an element and a mindset that is unsavory. So, all in I do not like it


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[HappyFish]

Originally Posted by peterpl

No I'd rather we as a community and hobby focus less on maintaining value and on the hobby itself. All this is also adding to very very shady deals happening everywhere along with big money laundering activities.

Horology is a hobby and it should remain as one. Turning into a tradable commodity takes the fun out of it as there are now 90% flippers and 10% true watch nuts that are on TRF for the love of watches.

As evident by the threads its all about how much will my $10k watch be worth in 3-4 years. I hope it reaches $20k blah blah blah. Its the same shit over and over and over again by people who just want to make a quick buck.

As soon as the watch game cools all these guys will be long gone and onto the next "hot" commodity trying to make a buck again.

So you think Rolex cares more for the 10 % Hobby-buyers or for the 90% collectors, investors, flippers, free riders?!

Get real man!

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by HappyFish

So you think Rolex cares more for the 10 % Hobby-buyers or for the 90% collectors, investors, flippers, free riders?!

Get real man!

Who said anything regarding what Rolex cares about? Was that part of OP's question?

"Get real man" - Nice...

I've been a member on this forum for 10 years. The change here is massive compared to how it used to be. Facts.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by HappyFish

So you think Rolex cares more for the 10 % Hobby-buyers or for the 90% collectors, investors, flippers, free riders?!
Get real man!

I never said that. All I'm saying is the community and the hobby is crap now because of people flipping and ONLY being round here for that reason only.

They don't contribute anything substantial to the forum or to the knowledge, they just continue to create threads on how much their Hulk or BLRO will be worth in another 12 months time. Then create another thread saying the gray dealer just offered them lower than MSRP and how they didnt make any money....lol

Stuff like that which is everywhere. Just search the last 1 month and see how many threads are along these lines. I seriously cant wait for this bubble to burst. I really hope it does soon actually and we get back to the REAL reason why we are here and thats the hobby of watches, their movements and the intricate details of their workings and discussing the technical marvels behind them.

I seriously dont care how much my LV or BLNR or whatever is worth and I hope everyone in this game purely for flipping gets left holding the bag when things start going south.

[HappyFish]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I never said that. All I'm saying is the community and the hobby is crap now because of people flipping and ONLY being round here for that reason only.

They don't contribute anything substantial to the forum or to the knowledge, they just continue to create threads on how much their Hulk or BLRO will be worth in another 12 months time. Then create another thread saying the gray dealer just offered them lower than MSRP and how they didnt make any money....lol

Stuff like that which is everywhere. Just search the last 1 month and see how many threads are along these lines.

With this i agree 100%!

[dtwer]

The answer is an unequivocal yes to me.

I don't flip watches, but I thoroughly enjoy the knowledge that I own things that are exquisite, durable, and highly sought-after.

As in all things in life, the ability to maximize up-side risks and to minimize down-side risks is an innate human quality. Pursuing things that hold long-term value, therefore, reflects the quality of one's decision-making in managing future risks.

That's why I understand the tremendous following of Rolex watches these days; people are seeking things that have the lowest down-side risk and that's great. This is what rational human beings do.

The problem comes when people are so hyped by the pursuit that they start to pay the irrational grey prices, the long-term value of those watches evaporates at that point.