Is the return to normalcy imminent?

[Goldmansockz]

Given the decline in the gray market, is there any anecdotal evidence that it’s becoming easier to get SS models from ADs? I’m in LA County and after 3 years of multiple wait lists I’ve only been offered DJs in random configurations. Really want a Batgirl and OP 36 in silver but not having luck although I did get close a couple months ago in Hawaii when I was offered a scratch watch…

[dmash]

There's a decline but the batgirl for instance is still trending for thousands above MSRP. With that existing, people on 'lists' or getting calls will 100% take to own, or even for immediate flipping, as there's profit to be made. Until this reaches null, these will still be super hard to obtain.

Also, the OP36 is a bit of an anomaly within Rolex. For every other model in the catalog, 40-41 *strongly* outsells 36-37. This goes for Datejust, Day Date, Explorer, Yachtmaster, everything. Multiple ADs have confirmed for me that the OP36 is one of their best sellers for women, due to the price entry point and colors offered. This is also exhibited on the grey market where certain OP41 configuration will sell for 30% less than their OP36 counterparts. So while you think the OP36 is an easy ask, it's actually not. I'm pretty well versed on OP values at the moment as I just bought my wife an OP36 Tiffany and in negotiations for a OP31 silver for the MIL.

Lastly, being in LA, you're contending with big fish. I wouldn't even sweat it and just go grey for the OP36 as the premium isn't that crazy for green and silver dials. You *might* be at 10% after what you'd pay in store after tax. That's pretty negligible to have in hand with zero games. It's not like it's going to help boost you to get a Batgirl, a $6k OP spend is meaningless towards that scenario.

[4reRlxGuy]

Like dmash noted a lot of competition in Socal. I restarted about 2 1/2 years ago after my AD of approx. 25 yrs lost Rolex. I'm on the "list" for a Pepsi and Panda but after $175k in spend history I asked if I could get a Batgirl before the end of the year for either my bday or Xmas this year.

All they said is "they would try." I have gotten Subs (PM and SS) and a Daytona (PM) over the last 2 1/2 yrs.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Like dmash noted a lot of competition in Socal. I restarted about 2 1/2 years ago after my AD of approx. 25 yrs lost Rolex. I'm on the "list" for a Pepsi and Panda but after $175k in spend history I asked if I could get a Batgirl before the end of the year for either my bday or Xmas this year.

All they said is "they would try." I have gotten Subs (PM and SS) and a Daytona (PM) over the last 2 1/2 yrs.

$175k spent... Holy guacamole… Threads like this remind me that I’m either (a) too frugal or (b) a mere guppy in this sea of big fish.

[Halifax Daytona UK]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Like dmash noted a lot of competition in Socal. I restarted about 2 1/2 years ago after my AD of approx. 25 yrs lost Rolex. I'm on the "list" for a Pepsi and Panda but after $175k in spend history I asked if I could get a Batgirl before the end of the year for either my bday or Xmas this year.

All they said is "they would try." I have gotten Subs (PM and SS) and a Daytona (PM) over the last 2 1/2 yrs.

WTF , you’ve spent $175k on other stuff you don’t really want , should have gone grey

[4reRlxGuy]

Originally Posted by Halifax Daytona UK

WTF , you’ve spent $175k on other stuff you don’t really want , should have gone grey

Most of $175k was PM sports models (subs and a daytona). A Starbuck and SS Wimbledon in the mix.

[Little machines]

Agreed !Grey market (trusted sellers) not a bad option . I would always visit an AD ,you never know the connection you will acquire . Just way out the amount of money you would spend and the premium within the grey market! Good luck!

[Roddypeepa]

Originally Posted by Little machines

Agreed !Grey market (trusted sellers) not a bad option . I would always visit an AD ,you never know the connection you will acquire . Just way out the amount of money you would spend and the premium within the grey market! Good luck!

A buddy of mine got a Batman from an AD in Bath, England 18 mo ago as a first purchase for his 50th. He was keen to show his collection, prove he wasn’t a flipper etc. but it was about 9-11 months wait at a higher demand point than we see now. So can be done. YMMV.


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[Goldmansockz]

Originally Posted by Roddypeepa

A buddy of mine got a Batman from an AD in Bath, England 18 mo ago as a first purchase for his 50th. He was keen to show his collection, prove he wasn’t a flipper etc. but it was about 9-11 months wait at a higher demand point than we see now. So can be done. YMMV.


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Wonder if it hurts that I’m in my late 20s…

[Roddypeepa]

Originally Posted by Goldmansockz

Wonder if it hurts that I’m in my late 20s…

Maybe. Seems unfair but they may well be making assumptions they’ve no right to make. Good luck!


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[EverCloserUnion]

I can only comment directly on my one experience of buying a Rolex DJ 41 (Azzuro blue, roman dial, smooth bezel) at a AD in the south of England recently (it was in the window, I walked in, and left with the watch after 45 minutes).

Looking at the market more broadly, there are a number of factors that point to slacker demand (at least at the lower end of the Rolex and luxury watch market): the Covid ‘shunt’ (increasing demand while decreasing supply) is working its way out. A prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates meant that passion assets in general (and luxury watches in particular) performed very well, but that applies less now: higher rates mean that money is more expensive and the ‘risk free’ rate of return has increased.

We also have country specific factors at play (such as the slow-down in China sending many of their recently emerged upper middle class back to earth with a bump). Anti-corruption drives in a number of markets will be a factor too.

Countering these trends, I’d expect to see sellers restricting supply where able (rather than pouring in to a declined market), but equally many ‘professional’ resellers will have debts to service / repay and will presumably need to focus on cash flow too.

Just my tuppence worth – my experience of watch markets is rather limited. My experience as an economist spans two decades.

[Bartolo]

Originally Posted by EverCloserUnion

I can only comment directly on my one experience of buying a Rolex DJ 41 (Azzuro blue, roman dial, smooth bezel) at a AD in the south of England recently (it was in the window, I walked in, and left with the watch after 45 minutes).

Looking at the market more broadly, there are a number of factors that point to slacker demand (at least at the lower end of the Rolex and luxury watch market): the Covid ‘shunt’ (increasing demand while decreasing supply) is working its way out. A prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates meant that passion assets in general (and luxury watches in particular) performed very well, but that applies less now: higher rates mean that money is more expensive and the ‘risk free’ rate of return has increased.

We also have country specific factors at play (such as the slow-down in China sending many of their recently emerged upper middle class back to earth with a bump). Anti-corruption drives in a number of markets will be a factor too.

Countering these trends, I’d expect to see sellers restricting supply where able (rather than pouring in to a declined market), but equally many ‘professional’ resellers will have debts to service / repay and will presumably need to focus on cash flow too.

Just my tuppence worth – my experience of watch markets is rather limited. My experience as an economist spans two decades.

I absolutely predict that manufactures will limit production waaaaay before they let the retail outlets get flooded with product.

And yeah many gray market sellers are probably still sitting on inventory . . . but I think that overall that's not THAT many pieces in the entire ecosystem. They'll get moved . . . and those dealers will go back to buying and selling for their std margins. I strongly suspect that most have already burned off their upside-down inventory and are back to buying and selling.

[Mystro]

We are at a low point so it would be a good time to buy with one of our trusted sellers. Keep in mind SS GMT are on fire so you won’t get anywhere near msrp.

[1William]

The market has only flattened for watches that are in less demand. Any watch that can be purchased for less and sold for more makes them more difficult to get.

[Harry-57]

From my perspective "normal" was 2018-19. I think we're there or thereabouts now. If you're talking about walking in and buying any model, I don't know when you could do that. I was offered a place on a waitlist for the 16610LV in 2009 so it wasn't possible for me 15 years ago.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

From my perspective "normal" was 2018-19. I think we're there or thereabouts now. If you're talking about walking in and buying any model, I don't know when you could do that. I was offered a place on a waitlist for the 16610LV in 2009 so it wasn't possible for me 15 years ago.

Normal was anything before 2018

[Hkspwrsche]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

From my perspective "normal" was 2018-19. I think we're there or thereabouts now. If you're talking about walking in and buying any model, I don't know when you could do that. I was offered a place on a waitlist for the 16610LV in 2009 so it wasn't possible for me 15 years ago.

In 07 I got 30% off my Omega 2254.50

I remember having to think about it when they offered me 10% off Rolex in 2007. That dealer (Jared in VA) no longer has Rolex of course.

I recall getting a good deal on my M serial 3186 GMT Pepsi in 08. A little under msrp.

In 2018 I sold it intending to go walk in and buy a new ceramic Pepsi. I was perplexed when they said they’d put me on a list. Then that location lost Rolex. Then I moved to a new store. And the games began! 2022 before I got it!

No one had a Stainless Daytona in stock at any point in my shopping. Even in the old days.

I have mostly varied and vintage stuff but I do have all the modern stuff I need.

[bp1000]

What was normal was 20-25% off most PM DDs, 5-10% of some steel professional, 10-25% off most DJs and even discount on TT and some PM Daytonas.

The only models that were above retail were steel subs, GMT’s, Daytonas.

There is still some way to go to get to “normal”.

Normal was the above for probably 2000-2017.

The new normal will probably never get back there because we have too many grey dealers pumping the market with their BS.

Most hyped models are still 10-25% above the last tracker avg in 2018. A lot of the slower moving pieces by Patek for example are really dragging on the decline.

[Phlippe]

The watch market is never going back to it old pre-pandemic normal as to much has changed in the watch industry. For a market to bottom dealers need to exit the market place, currently there’s still to much inventory at grey dealers and most of it was bought at to high of a cost. Rolex is getting into the used market which says their long term strategy is to support the products both new and old which says they care about what the older watches sell for used. To much demand crates bubbles, to little demand or to much supply devalues the brand. It’s no accident the Submariner book is coming out with production numbers by model and there are additional books coming on other series as well. A market place needs as much information as possible to properly value a widget. If Rolex squeezes the grey market to hard to fast they will implode the prices of used watches. What do I mean by this, say they come out and say watches without province of ownership are no longer serviceable. That would kill the grey dealers overnight. Currently Rolex won’t services watch with after market parts in it. Take this one step further and not service watch’s that don’t have authorized dealer records and you devalue a hole bunch of product. Of course if they service it, the watch comes back as certified preowned with a fancy cream box and warranty. I could see them making the warranty not transferable unless it goes through an AD. in the short term certain models are going to show up for same day purchased, and people might even be able to get Daytona and GMT if the AD needs to make their monthly numbers. The long term trend it the one to watch and until we see 80% of the grey dealers go away we won’t see the new normal. Just my two cents, I hope you find a watch your looking for soon, Cheers!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Phlippe

The watch market is never going back to it old pre-pandemic normal as to much has changed in the watch industry.

I denied this and wanted it to not be true so badly, as somebody who's been 'into' watches for almost 2 decades and kind of hate the current scene.....

but I'm finally starting to just admit, this is correct. At least for another decade. LOTS has changed, from the ground up, things aren't going back for a while. It is what it is, better to just accept it than constantly fight it.


However in the USA, for others perusing this thread, 100% almost every steel model could get a small discount as recent as 2015. Stuff like hulk were horrendous sellers that some ADs couldn't give away. SD4k sat in cases for years. Daytona has been 'not easy' for a while, but nothing like it was during COVID times and even now. The intro of the 116500LN is what really set that hype bomb off. But even before, some ADs had trouble getting Daytonas for everybody who wanted one.

also around 2014-2015, AP RO Jumbo was 20% under MSRP all day. Nautilus was considered an ugly retro '70s' watch by the masses and traded well below MSRP. The 'hype' watches that peaked as hard as some of those, are the ones bound to crash the hardest in my opinion. Do I think we ever return to discounts on NIB Steel Sports models from the big 3? No. but the insane levels still have some cooling to do. I think there will be some happy medium in the grey market such as:

Sub/Explorers= ~MSRP
GMTs= ~25% above
Daytona= ~30-50% above, this is really undecided and a big question mark. I don't see them dropping much lower than $25k to be honest, as that's the competitor?
RO/Nautilus/Aquanaut= 10-20% above


People gotta understand a lot of these brands did a ton of price increases too (looking at you AP) so this also plays into the picture.

[MILGAUSS88]

Originally Posted by Phlippe

The watch market is never going back to it old pre-pandemic normal as to much has changed in the watch industry. For a market to bottom dealers need to exit the market place, currently there’s still to much inventory at grey dealers and most of it was bought at to high of a cost.

Never say never.
I have been in the antique market for 50 years.
What I knew for the first 25 years was completely turned on its head for the last 25 years.

What I experienced the first 25 years was half of my sales going to other dealers who thought they could get more money, for the items I sold to them.
The other half was to end buyers. Sounds a lot like what we had in the watch market the last 5 years.

Today, in the antique market, it is more like 10% to other dealers and 90% to end buyers. And prices have dropped dramatically.

With prices dropping in watches, dramatically in some cases, I am betting there is less dealer to dealer sales. I know, I saw less at the last NAWCC national. This could cause dealers to drop out, and see lower prices in the future.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

Never say never.
I have been in the antique market for 50 years.
What I knew for the first 25 years was completely turned on its head for the last 25 years.

What I experienced the first 25 years was half of my sales going to other dealers who thought they could get more money, for the items I sold to them.
The other half was to end buyers. Sounds a lot like what we had in the watch market the last 5 years.

Today, in the antique market, it is more like 10% to other dealers and 90% to end buyers. And prices have dropped dramatically.

With prices dropping in watches, dramatically in some cases, I am betting there is less dealer to dealer sales. I know, I saw less at the last NAWCC national. This could cause dealers to drop out, and see lower prices in the future.

Reminds me of my Dads favorite quote:

“It’s amazing how much you will learn after you know it all”


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[rgito]

FWIW, I have been "on the list" for a BLNR and Cermit for two years. Just received "the call" yesterday for the sub. Leaning towards declining for now.

My SA said that her AD is seeing many more of the 126610lv arriving these days. BLNR still tough to acquire. I asked about a 226570 Polar and she said that is possible in a "reasonable" amount of time.

[Tricolore66]

As demand for the hot SS pieces (Daytona and BLNR were the only ones that were hard to find) people bought what they could get, the next best option. Those next best option pieces will be the first to fill the cases again, starting with DJ’s and OP’s.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

As demand for the hot SS pieces (Daytona and BLNR were the only ones that were hard to find) people bought what they could get, the next best option. Those next best option pieces will be the first to fill the cases again, starting with DJ’s and OP’s.

Honestly, a Datejust41 trading above retail was almost as wild to me as the Daytona prices. It's absolutely bonkers to me that people who had ZERO interest in those watches before, drove up pricing because they 'settled' for what they could get.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by dmash

Honestly, a Datejust41 trading above retail was almost as wild to me as the Daytona prices. It's absolutely bonkers to me that people who had ZERO interest in those watches before, drove up pricing because they 'settled' for what they could get.

This is what we always used to say….watch the DJ41 as it is the “canary in the coal mine” of Rolex market direction. If the highest volume a un-hyped model isn’t overflowing the display cases at the AD, then forget the idea the market will ever get close to 2016 times.
I made peace with this at the start of Covid as prices only went up and AD’s got a new strategy of bundling, junk jewelry to get a common Rolex model. You can’t unring a bell. Right now is about as stable as the market gets and a good time of the year to buy if you are in the market.


I even got a discount in 2017 so you might as well put this under the caption:….”These days gone forever.”

[fly4food84]

Originally Posted by Mystro

This is what we always used to say….watch the DJ41 as it is the “canary in the coal mine” of Rolex market direction. If the highest volume a un-hyped model isn’t overflowing the display cases at the AD, then forget the idea the market will ever get close to 2016 times.
I made peace with this at the start of Covid as prices only went up and AD’s got a new strategy of bundling, junk jewelry to get a common Rolex model. You can’t unring a bell. Right now is about as stable as the market gets and a good time of the year to buy if you are in the market.


I even got a discount in 2017 so you might as well put this under the caption:….”These days gone forever.”

This is the way - well said with great screen shot. I wish we could go back to that period.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Mystro

This is what we always used to say….watch the DJ41 as it is the “canary in the coal mine” of Rolex market direction. If the highest volume a un-hyped model isn’t overflowing the display cases at the AD, then forget the idea the market will ever get close to 2016 times.
I made peace with this at the start of Covid as prices only went up and AD’s got a new strategy of bundling, junk jewelry to get a common Rolex model. You can’t unring a bell. Right now is about as stable as the market gets and a good time of the year to buy if you are in the market.
]

This is another reason I went ahead and made my recent grey purchases. Honestly I think we might get another spike in a couple months rolling into holidays. Prices seemed fair enough right now, at least for what I’ve seen

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by dmash

This is another reason I went ahead and made my recent grey purchases. Honestly I think we might get another spike in a couple months rolling into holidays. Prices seemed fair enough right now, at least for what I’ve seen

It’s a matter of if you actually want to own a SS Daytona or not. Maybe you can play the waiting game for a black Sub but the SS Daytona is the top of the mountain in the Rolex game. Obviously no one wants to pay up for a hot model and talk is cheap so only voting with our wallets separates the bench warmers from the players.

[eugenetsang]

LOL tricked me thinking DSW was selling this for $8k. Went on his website and saw him selling it for $23k+