5711 Hype Dissapearing

[norcalgt3]

The 5711 prices on secondary are dropping significantly even past discontinuation. I have several dial color configurations and am thinking of consolidating my collection (aka selling). Is this something multiple 5711 owners have considered?

I see nothing in the future propping the hype prices up. Happy to be wrong however.

[Gandor]

Yeah they're definitely dropping fast. I see 60k as a very reasonable target within the next year.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Gandor

Yeah they're definitely dropping fast. I see 60k as a very reasonable target within the next year.

That is getting close to what I think FMV should be on this watch. I remember well when they were 20K retail and could be had easily at a discount.

[APhound]

Hmm good question. Nobody knows what the future holds but I feel pretty good about my 5711. I probably paid way too much for it but to me it was always kinda THE watch.. I think if they can’t hold value then I don’t know what can.
But if I had multiple I’d maybe trade some for something else and just keep one, but that’s just for practicality not what’s a better investment. What are you thinking of trading into?


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[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by APhound

Hmm good question. Nobody knows what the future holds but I feel pretty good about my 5711. I probably paid way too much for it but to me it was always kinda THE watch.. I think if they can’t hold value then I don’t know what can.
But if I had multiple I’d maybe trade some for something else and just keep one, but that’s just for practicality not what’s a better investment. What are you thinking of trading into?


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Honestly thinking of selling to buy stocks while i await for future patek releases

[JMac6]

Originally Posted by APhound

Hmm good question. Nobody knows what the future holds but I feel pretty good about my 5711. I probably paid way too much for it but to me it was always kinda THE watch.. I think if they can’t hold value then I don’t know what can.
But if I had multiple I’d maybe trade some for something else and just keep one, but that’s just for practicality not what’s a better investment. What are you thinking of trading into?


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It would be surprising to me if most modern Pateks under $100,000 either held value or meaningfully appreciated in value.

There are a lot of 5711As in circulation. There will be a lot of 5811Gs in circulation. There will ultimately be a lot of 5811As in circulation. And, when the 5811A inevitably comes out, I think it will be hard to choose the 5711A over the improved monobloc 5811A with a quick-adjust bracelet.

[APhound]

Originally Posted by JMac6

It would be surprising to me if most modern Pateks under $100,000 either held value or meaningfully appreciated in value.

There are a lot of 5711As in circulation. There will be a lot of 5811Gs in circulation. There will ultimately be a lot of 5811As in circulation. And, when the 5811A inevitably comes out, I think it will be hard to choose the 5711A over the improved monobloc 5811A with a quick-adjust bracelet.

Ya I’m sure a stainless 5811 would hurt 5711s but I guess I’m under the impression they’re not making stainless 3 handers like that.. maybe that’s wishful thinking I don’t know. I do think there’s something about a 5711 that will always be cool to me. Kinda like a Porsche 993 maybe. The newer cars are all better but there’s just something about a 993 that will always make me want one.


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[JMac6]

Originally Posted by APhound

Ya I’m sure a stainless 5811 would hurt 5711s but I guess I’m under the impression they’re not making stainless 3 handers like that.. maybe that’s wishful thinking I don’t know. I do think there’s something about a 5711 that will always be cool to me. Kinda like a Porsche 993 maybe. The newer cars are all better but there’s just something about a 993 that will always make me want one.


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They will start making stainless 3 handers again when the market dictates that they do so. Which it will. Lest we forget - no one cared about the Nautilus for the vast majority of its life. We will return to those times. I'd bet a Rolex on Patek coming out with a 5811A within 5 years.

I understand the feeling that you will always want a 5711A - and I think that is understandable. It was THE hot watch for a while. I could see myself scooping one up just because I collected during the time period of extreme relevance. But I do not think that such feeling with buoy the price all too much. Patek just made so many of them - I imagine well in excess of 10,000.

I could see the 3700 doing well down the line. I could see a reference like the 3712 doing well. But there are a lot of Nautili and not very much to distinguish them.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by JMac6

They will start making stainless 3 handers again when the market dictates that they do so. Which it will. Lest we forget - no one cared about the Nautilus for the vast majority of its life. We will return to those times. I'd bet a Rolex on Patek coming out with a 5811A within 5 years.

I understand the feeling that you will always want a 5711A - and I think that is understandable. It was THE hot watch for a while. I could see myself scooping one up just because I collected during the time period of extreme relevance. But I do not think that such feeling with buoy the price all too much. Patek just made so many of them - I imagine well in excess of 10,000.

I could see the 3700 doing well down the line. I could see a reference like the 3712 doing well. But there are a lot of Nautili and not very much to distinguish them.

3700 was trading a lot higher than 5711 pre hype - when I missed out on a steel 3700 full set with cork box a little over a decade ago they were sth like 2x the price of a 5711/1A. Not sure that pattern will return as few 3700 remain in nice condition and many collectors simply won't get into a 50y old watch.

As to a future 5811/1A I can very well see a limited edition for the 50th Nautilus birthday in 2026. As a regular production model I am less sure, unless a complete meltdown in demand forced Patek to offer much cheaper watches again. It would be quite the reversal of their recent push towards PM sports watches.

[WatchEater666]

It’s a mass produced watch that is “nice” but not worth anywhere near what it has traded for these last few years. I wouldn’t be surprised if it keeps floating down in value.

IMO it’s a good thing as Patek has WAY more interesting pieces than the Nautilus. I’m glad Patek said they didn’t want turn into AP and the RO.

[Mini2]

Not a bad thing especially if you are in the market for one
less buyers the better and I mean that for all watches

[robertengel]

I have recently purchased a 5712 on grey and can tell you that if something is priced right, even 10% under the average it can move in days. I would get a watch offered wednesday night and by thursday morning it would be sold, so there is definitely movement and it's not a "free fall" at least for that model. I think what will define the bottom will be the new price of comparable models. SO if the only available three hand time only Nautilus is the 5811 and it costs 60k then the bottom will be somewhat above that. Furthermore dont let low prices at face value fool you, some of them are 12 years old and in ROUGH shape. You would think it's easy to find a good watch for a ton of money but it is not. Bad polishing and questionable history made me raise my budget multiple times.

[ts3]

Not sure if other multiple 5711 owners address the issue purely from a financial perspective. It begs the question why you ended up with multiple 5711 and what has changed since. If you fell out of love with the disappearing hype you might still want to rush to the exit despite missing out on much higher prices 2 years ago. No point in hoping for prices to move up again substantially but still some room for further drops I think. Personally I have a clear favorite which I continue to enjoy and haven't thought about selling. Not in 2021 or 2022 and not since.

[cascavel]

Excellent idea! Sell your 5711s and buy stocks. Equities will go up in price between now and when PP issues its new releases thereby reducing your "real cost" when you are allocated those new and desirable watches.
I don't see anything wrong with this. Everyone should do it.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Excellent idea! Sell your 5711s and buy stocks. Equities will go up in price between now and when PP issues its new releases thereby reducing your "real cost" when you are allocated those new and desirable watches.
I don't see anything wrong with this. Everyone should do it.

Another plus is that the stock market will be propelled to new highs if everyone follows your advice.

[bp1000]

Originally Posted by ts3

Another plus is that the stock market will be propelled to new highs if everyone follows your advice.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by ts3

Another plus is that the stock market will be propelled to new highs if everyone follows your advice.

I know, right? The billions coming out of the watch market will crater watch prices and then there will be no need to wait for the stock market to rally (where a few billion or even hundred billion won't move the needle).
This is a great plan, one where nothing can go wrong.

[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by cascavel

excellent idea! Sell your 5711s and buy stocks. Equities will go up in price between now and when pp issues its new releases thereby reducing your "real cost" when you are allocated those new and desirable watches.
I don't see anything wrong with this. Everyone should do it.

+1

[Vasco]

I've been following watches since 2009 (and deep in Patek since 2011). The Nautilus models usually sold on the secondary market around 10-15% under MSRP. Aquanaut as well (even if it wasn't a model people liked back then). The "traditional" models faced, depending on the complication and price level (the higher the price, the higher the loss), between 10 and 40% (very roughly)?

And then came the growth of China during the 2010's that has gone along with western countries performance. It started to be visible I guess progressively but very visible from the 2018-2019 years. With a pick in the post-covid boom.

The Nautilus x2 x3 secondary increase, the Aquanaut's rise (that nobody wanted before) has pushed with a 6-10 months delay the traditional models up as well.

This trend is reversing on the economics side and the watch market as well.

I guess that many new comers will stay in the sense that watches have gained some interest/visibility versus the 2000's and before.

How low will it go, when will it rise again (if it does)? Hard to say. I guess the Nautilus/Aquanaut correspond to today's casual fashion, which means they should remain on the front line. But I remember that people preferred gold vs steel 10 years ago. They also preferred complications vs aesthetics.

Hard to read for the future :)

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Vasco

Hard to read for the future :)

No one has privileged access to the future.

If only I had a crystal ball 😢



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[Vince_76]

Can’t wait to get back to normalcy. When watch collecting was great.

[gates]

It's coming brother, it's coming...give it 6 months or so maybe less.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Can’t wait to get back to normalcy. When watch collecting was great.

not to pick a fight but i am not sure if collecting has ever been better than today... the spectrum of availability and creativity in so wide that one can have an excellent and complete collection without ever touching any of the big 3: PP, AP and Rolex. That was never a possibility before.....

Price of Nautilus is a reflection on the fact that it is the single best model ever produced by PP, full stop. Minimal and very powerful design that was way ahead of its time and still is. Congrats to all these who bought, price be damned.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by vliberman

not to pick a fight but i am not sure if collecting has ever been better than today... the spectrum of availability and creativity in so wide that one can have an excellent and complete collection without ever touching any of the big 3: PP, AP and Rolex. That was never a possibility before.....

Price of Nautilus is a reflection on the fact that it is the single best model ever produced by PP, full stop. Minimal and very powerful design that was way ahead of its time and still is. Congrats to all these who bought, price be damned.

I get (and agree with) your premise regarding diversity/quality of options. However I disagree with your conclusion that this is the best time. Specifically, viability/availability/cost of options are relatively poor given where the hobby has been over the past 15 years. Also, I’m sure most folks on here have at least one of the big 3, and many do not have interest outside of that in general.

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I get (and agree with) your premise regarding diversity/quality of options. However I disagree with your conclusion that this is the best time. Specifically, viability/availability/cost of options are relatively poor given where the hobby has been over the past 15 years. Also, I’m sure most folks on here have at least one of the big 3, and many do not have interest outside of that in general.

Yes 100% agreed with you.

I was offered a Resonance for ~$40k or $50k or something like that from WatchBox for example in 2018 or 2019.

You could definitely have built an AMAZING collecting for under ~$250k in 2019 even.

There are more options now, but your dollar does not take you nearly as far.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by WatchEater666

Yes 100% agreed with you.

I was offered a Resonance for ~$40k or $50k or something like that from WatchBox for example in 2018 or 2019.

You could definitely have built an AMAZING collecting for under ~$250k in 2019 even.

There are more options now, but your dollar does not take you nearly as far.

I could have bought a Philippe Dufour Simplicity at $35k some time ago. Let's move on.

[JMac6]

Originally Posted by vliberman

not to pick a fight but i am not sure if collecting has ever been better than today... the spectrum of availability and creativity in so wide that one can have an excellent and complete collection without ever touching any of the big 3: PP, AP and Rolex. That was never a possibility before.....

Price of Nautilus is a reflection on the fact that it is the single best model ever produced by PP, full stop. Minimal and very powerful design that was way ahead of its time and still is. Congrats to all these who bought, price be damned.

That statement is pure insanity!

Nautilus is a great model, no doubt. But it sits behind the RO in terms of historical importance.

I am not sure it is even among the top 5 models produced by PP.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by JMac6

That statement is pure insanity!

Nautilus is a great model, no doubt. But it sits behind the RO in terms of historical importance.

I am not sure it is even among the top 5 models produced by PP.

Nautilus is the model that defines PP whether you like it or not. Ask randomly 10 people which model of PP they would like to get if offered and 9/10 would say Nautilus. The other person already has one! It is akin to Sub for Rolex, first thing that comes to mind.

Further, I don’t think Nautilus is a hype piece. It is the most desired piece that is produced at lower quantity than demand. However, the demand is significant enough, to make it one of the highest produced models by PP. The reason it is demanded is design. Pure perfection. No other watch by PP comes close.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Nautilus is the model that defines PP whether you like it or not. Ask randomly 10 people which model of PP they would like to get if offered and 9/10 would say Nautilus. The other person already has one! It is akin to Sub for Rolex, first thing that comes to mind.

Further, I don’t think Nautilus is a hype piece. It is the most desired piece that is produced at lower quantity than demand. However, the demand is significant enough, to make it one of the highest produced models by PP. The reason it is demanded is design. Pure perfection. No other watch by PP comes close.

First thing that comes to my mind is a 3940. The nautlitus hype is a relatively recent phenomenon over the past decade. Royal oak is the first steel integrated sports watch that comes to my mind not the nautilus

[aa_watch]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

The 5711 prices on secondary are dropping significantly even past discontinuation. I have several dial color configurations and am thinking of consolidating my collection (aka selling). Is this something multiple 5711 owners have considered?

I see nothing in the future propping the hype prices up. Happy to be wrong however.

I assume 5711 price will get closer to current market for Aquanaut Travel Time as it used to be.
Both are considered "hype watches", Travel time retail price was around 10K more than 5711.