Expect even lower supply!

[LAREALTOR]

With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.

[Chaching]

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

This phenomenon of having half a dozen or more new Rolexes, over flowing watch boxes, and double incoming may come to an end. That excess will more than satisfy demand (whatever survives).

[c41006]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

That’s a tad bit extreme

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by c41006

That’s a tad bit extreme

You expect things to get better in a short period of time ?

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[c41006]

Originally Posted by snowvapor

You expect things to get better in a short period of time ?

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

You expect the Dow at 10k and millions of deaths?

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by c41006

You expect the Dow at 10k and millions of deaths?

Yeah that's where I found the statement over the top. He's probably closer with the unemployment numbers.

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by c41006

You expect the Dow at 10k and millions of deaths?

Honestly, I don't see it being far off.

We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people.

The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much.

My own 0.02 cents.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by c41006

That’s a tad bit extreme

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

I would read this from a Professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

Lighten up Francis ...

[Maiden]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

I dont know, H1N1 60 MILLION American's contracted. 300 000 hospitlizations, and over 15k deaths. Not sure about worldwide statistics, and I honestly dont know if this is more deadly or contagious. Just some perspective. There are not even 300k cases worldwide yet I think? Looks like the Malaria drug may be a breakthrough, Dow futures up. Again I don't know or pretend to know squat but based on this I think its a tad early to say the sky is falling.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by c41006

That’s a tad bit extreme

Were the closures to continue into the summer, the Dow will definitely be in the low single digits. Second quarter numbers will already be bleak and how much of that is priced into the current level is unknown. Once guidance is re-instated, the markets will stabilize. Its the unknown that really panics the market. The good news is the move afoot to re-open for business sooner not later.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Were the closures to continue into the summer, the Dow will definitely be in the low single digits. Second quarter numbers will already be bleak and how much of that is priced into the current level is unknown. Once guidance is re-instated, the markets will stabilize. Its the unknown that really panics the market. The good news is the move afoot to re-open for business sooner not later.

A lot of people are underestimating that reality (if it’s not priced in at current level). Once quarter ends and numbers are released this has a LONG way to go if it’s not currently representative of those upcoming numbers. I for one don’t think it is.

[dkg1616]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Millions of deaths? DOW at 10k?

DOW at 10k - theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

Millions of deaths - there has only been 215k total diagnosis across the world....

Yes we are in a serious credit crunch, but being part of a bank - we are all “fine” right now - it’s going to be short and the economy “should” rebound fairly quickly.
Biggest issue is all the short term resume financing that is going to be done by the US gov.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by dkg1616

Millions of deaths? DOW at 10k?

DOW at 10k - theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

Millions of deaths - there has only been 215k total diagnosis across the world....

Yes we are in a serious credit crunch, but being part of a bank - we are all “fine” right now - it’s going to be short and the economy “should” rebound fairly quickly.
Biggest issue is all the short term resume financing that is going to be done by the US gov.

I see Dow at $14k/$15k and 1mil+ infected (but not dead). I definitely think it’s going to get a bit worse and this is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s not a pessimistic outlook, it’s a preparatory mindset. It’s I’ll advised how some people (not you at all) are acting like everything will be on the up and up by May.

Originally Posted by Roy7

It's a business. They'll still make watches and less people will buy or worst case it'll be the same.

Who has money or wants to spend excess on novelty items?

Don't get me wrong I'd love to buy a nice Daytona but really I'd rather invest when the whole world is on sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Agree....this is a horrible situation with deaths/unemployment/businesses possibly going under....but in the end life will go on. I took any watch money to throw at the market. Another watch would be nice, but I’d rather see the money double within (my prediction) 2 years.

I don’t get these guys saying ‘oh if you’re squared away and you have the excess money, you will still buy watches right now’. Quite frankly, every savvy person I know would not spend ANY money on luxury goods right now, and are churning every excess penny into the market. I don’t understand some of these posters who truly believe Rolex sales are unaffected in an economic downturn. I have a feeling most of them bought way above MSRP and don’t want to face the reality of it no longer being worth that price.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by dmash

I took any watch money to throw at the market. Another watch would be nice, but I’d rather see the money double within (my prediction) 2 years.

Agreed, but figuring out WHEN to put that money in the market is stressful. I haven't done it YET!

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Agreed, but figuring out WHEN to put that money in the market is stressful. I haven't done it YET!

Don’t try to catch the falling knife, just buy companies with great balance sheets with a good yield. 2 years is way to far out i predict a V versus U.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Agreed, but figuring out WHEN to put that money in the market is stressful. I haven't done it YET!

I’m tiering buys, started at $20k Dow. I’m by no means a financial genius but this was also what my more savvy friends are doing as well.

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Don’t try to catch the falling knife, just buy companies with great balance sheets with a good yield. 2 years is way to far out i predict a V versus U.

Yeah I agree, I was saying 2 years as an absolute maximum of this progresses for another 6 months or so, then 18 month recovery. I think it will be way quicker than 2007, etc as you mention though.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Depression, mass unemployment, millions of deaths? Hysteria much?

J/k. But my prediction is by this summer people would have got over the Corona, or found another scary thing to justify hoarding tp.

What happens to the stock market is, in my view, a reset. Some will lose a bunch and some will make bigly emerging from this.

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by dtwer

Depression, mass unemployment, millions of deaths? Hysteria much?

J/k. But my prediction is by this summer people would have got over the Corona, or found another scary thing to justify hoarding tp.

What happens to the stock market is, in my view, a reset. Some will lose a bunch and some will make bigly emerging from this.

I try to error on the side of caution

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

No one believed Michael Burry either until it was too late. I think it's just human nature though to anchor to the old economy and philosophy and mistake structural changes for cyclical changes. We'll see how basket products continue to contribute to VIX as well and if we need global programs to purchase these instead of the stat quo QE.

I agree, many have a lot more to worry about than a Rolex right now and I hope health and prosperity in their recovery.

[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

No more CNN for this man

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Roli4life

No more CNN for this man

+1

If I could put out a public service message to the globe it would be to turn off your TV and stop reading any negative piece/opinion out there. Getting news and facts has become an exhausting pursuit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Hulk and Batman are too weak to help


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by Homo Sapien X

Hulk and Batman are too weak to help


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[springer]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Oh my, behave. You're scaring the children!

[newu5er]

I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by newu5er

I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.

Worldwide...... based on the percentages we are seeing it’s not that far fetched.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by newu5er

I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.

+1 Close to 25000 people die from hunger EVERY day and another 25000 tomorrow and every day after that. This virus won't touch those numbers by a long shot.