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#1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Watch: SeaDweller 43, YM2
Posts: 84
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Expect even lower supply!
With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.
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#2 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: None of ya #@!
Location: Somewhere
Watch: Many! 116718 GOLD
Posts: 2,137
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Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.
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#3 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: America
Posts: 713
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Quote:
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#4 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Real Name: Joshua
Location: Atlanta
Watch: Pelagos
Posts: 7,933
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Quote:
That’s a tad bit extreme |
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#5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Montreal
Watch: 16610lv
Posts: 148
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#6 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Real Name: Joshua
Location: Atlanta
Watch: Pelagos
Posts: 7,933
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#7 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: USA/Denmark
Posts: 651
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#8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Montreal
Watch: 16610lv
Posts: 148
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Honestly, I don't see it being far off.
We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people. The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much. My own 0.02 cents. Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk |
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#9 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: None of ya #@!
Location: Somewhere
Watch: Many! 116718 GOLD
Posts: 2,137
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I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.
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#10 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,201
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Quote:
I would read this from a Professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/ |
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#11 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 9,034
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Quote:
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#12 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Canada
Posts: 3,650
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Quote:
__________________
Rolex 116613LN Rolex 16610LN Omega Seamaster Aqua Terra 41mm Omega Geneve Tag Heuer Aquaracer WAY2112 Orient Ray 2 |
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#13 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,984
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Were the closures to continue into the summer, the Dow will definitely be in the low single digits. Second quarter numbers will already be bleak and how much of that is priced into the current level is unknown. Once guidance is re-instated, the markets will stabilize. Its the unknown that really panics the market. The good news is the move afoot to re-open for business sooner not later.
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#14 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
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#15 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,607
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Quote:
DOW at 10k - theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. Millions of deaths - there has only been 215k total diagnosis across the world.... Yes we are in a serious credit crunch, but being part of a bank - we are all “fine” right now - it’s going to be short and the economy “should” rebound fairly quickly. Biggest issue is all the short term resume financing that is going to be done by the US gov. |
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#16 | ||
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
Quote:
I don’t get these guys saying ‘oh if you’re squared away and you have the excess money, you will still buy watches right now’. Quite frankly, every savvy person I know would not spend ANY money on luxury goods right now, and are churning every excess penny into the market. I don’t understand some of these posters who truly believe Rolex sales are unaffected in an economic downturn. I have a feeling most of them bought way above MSRP and don’t want to face the reality of it no longer being worth that price. |
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#17 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: USA
Posts: 2,799
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#18 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: new york
Watch: PAM111, BLNR
Posts: 242
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Don’t try to catch the falling knife, just buy companies with great balance sheets with a good yield. 2 years is way to far out i predict a V versus U.
__________________
PAM 111 GMT II - 116710 BLNR |
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#19 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
Yeah I agree, I was saying 2 years as an absolute maximum of this progresses for another 6 months or so, then 18 month recovery. I think it will be way quicker than 2007, etc as you mention though. |
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#20 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: midwest
Watch: DJ 41
Posts: 1,496
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Quote:
![]() J/k. But my prediction is by this summer people would have got over the Corona, or found another scary thing to justify hoarding tp. What happens to the stock market is, in my view, a reset. Some will lose a bunch and some will make bigly emerging from this. |
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#21 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: None of ya #@!
Location: Somewhere
Watch: Many! 116718 GOLD
Posts: 2,137
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Quote:
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#22 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Watch: All Rolex
Posts: 7,019
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Quote:
I agree, many have a lot more to worry about than a Rolex right now and I hope health and prosperity in their recovery. |
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#23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,079
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Quote:
No more CNN for this man ![]() |
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#24 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2020
Real Name: KP Jimmy
Location: Singapore
Watch: R/AP/FPJ/Hermès/et
Posts: 6,597
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+1 ![]() ![]() ![]() If I could put out a public service message to the globe it would be to turn off your TV and stop reading any negative piece/opinion out there. Getting news and facts has become an exhausting pursuit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
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#25 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Planet Earth
Posts: 237
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Expect even lower supply!
Quote:
Hulk and Batman are too weak to help Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: None of ya #@!
Location: Somewhere
Watch: Many! 116718 GOLD
Posts: 2,137
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#27 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Real Name: jP
Location: Texas
Watch: GMT-MASTER
Posts: 17,186
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Quote:
__________________
Member of NAWCC since 1990. INSTAGRAM USER NAME: SPRINGERJFP Visit my Instagram page to view some of the finest vintage GMTs anywhere - as well as other vintage classics. |
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#28 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: USA/Denmark
Posts: 651
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I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.
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#29 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: None of ya #@!
Location: Somewhere
Watch: Many! 116718 GOLD
Posts: 2,137
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#30 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Real Name: John
Location: newport beach
Watch: Pateks Plural
Posts: 1,620
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+1 Close to 25000 people die from hunger EVERY day and another 25000 tomorrow and every day after that. This virus won't touch those numbers by a long shot.
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