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#1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Real Name: Andy
Location: Ontario, Canada
Watch: AKA: ANDERL712000
Posts: 4,935
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Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!
Hi everyone
I started a conversation a few days ago about the grey market flooded with ceramic daytonas and batmans. The overwhelming response was that prices would drop drastically My personal feeling is that nothing will change, mainly because brands like AP and PP, which are just as hard to get (maybe harder) for years, have also flooded the grey market, but their prices stay high. My valid question is, do those brands always sell quickly (in the grey market)?
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We want to be the first in the field and Rolex should be seen as the one and only-the best. Hans Wilsdorf, Rolex founder |
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#2 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2017
Real Name: Louis Nick Ric
Location: Michigan, USA
Watch: Blnr, Expll, Subs,
Posts: 10,167
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Supply and Demand. The market has been flourishing until recently, now in uncertain times most people are sitting back so prices are dropping somewhat temporarily, the higher the price the higher percentage drop. I don't see any panic situation where prices will plummet.
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#3 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
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I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..
What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to. The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c |
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#4 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody. Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact. |
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#5 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
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Quote:
It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol .. But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom |
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#6 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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#7 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: USA/Denmark
Posts: 651
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#8 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: CA-USA
Posts: 258
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Quote:
I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already. Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive. |
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#9 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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#10 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Real Name: Brett
Location: Florida
Watch: 5205R
Posts: 5,160
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Quote:
We never saw this level of hate for the greys back then. It’s sad to see now.
__________________
Morality does not derive from consensus. It only comes from one place. Pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall. Often times unbelief is disguised as wisdom Instagram - patton250 |
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#11 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Real Name: Francisco
Location: San Juan, PR
Watch: Is Ticking !
Posts: 24,964
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Quote:
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Francisco ♛ 16610 / 116264 Ω 168.022 / 2535.80.00 / 310.30.42.50.01.002 Zenith 02.480.405 2FA security enabled |
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#12 |
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,349
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Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!
I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases. |
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#13 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
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Quote:
Nobody knows for sure at this point. All eyes are now on the USA who is fighting with massive number of infected ppl, even more than China as I understood. Trump is promising a great rebound of economy later this year as I understood from the news .. Hope you guys get through this quickly as that's what's most important now and I hope that if anything good can come up from this mess will be normalization of the watch market for us enthusiast. |
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#14 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 196
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The ting is this: no one knows what will happen! We are in the middle of something that we haven’t experienced before, and no one knows how the end will turn out - not for the society as a whole and not for Rolex specifically.
People look at the markets and make the conclusion that Rolex sales will fluctuate with them. This is in my mind a pre-mature and lazy analysis. They might, and they might not - a much deeper analysis would have to be carried out to say anything conclusive regarding beta-values of the Rolex market, and the market as a whole. Just remember, you have absolutely no way of knowing who sits behind the screens on the internet, but it is very easy to sound super confident that the prices will drop or the contrary- that they will rise. Just look at this thread already! My best advice is to educate yourself on the subject and make your own conclusions. To answer your question: as one other poster already said, it depends on the specific reference. Due to the current uncertainty, one could expect that even the most popular references would go a longer time without being sold. |
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#15 | |
Banned
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Texas
Posts: 70
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Quote:
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't. Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong... Without further ado, This isn't rocket science. Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing. 1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week. Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether. Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces. 2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold. 3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills. (remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency) This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex. 4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats? Of course not... The A.D. will begin calling clients. Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor. Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in. 5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D. At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards. A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out). BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers. I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine. It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip. The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even. GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value. Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees. Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party. Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks. Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold. There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild? Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion? During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall. Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target. Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again. I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle. A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start. |
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#16 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Real Name: Brett
Location: Florida
Watch: 5205R
Posts: 5,160
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Quote:
__________________
Morality does not derive from consensus. It only comes from one place. Pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall. Often times unbelief is disguised as wisdom Instagram - patton250 |
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#17 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
Three MILLION, not hundred thousand, MILLION new unemployment claims, business and cities still on lockdown, the virus growing exponentially. You think even if the virus completely disappeared this week, things would just pop back to normal? Not a chance. |
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#18 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 196
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Which is my point exactly in the post that he is quoting - nobody knows if this is long term, and if it is, how long term.
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#19 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,201
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The point about the GM stops buying when they have to liquidate inventory is well taken.
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#20 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: The South, USA
Posts: 960
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Quote:
Rather good analysis, and I always tip my cap to a rational person. I would like to add that the tipping point that will break this market and lead to drastic price decreases will be reached when the collector starts to sell in order to raise cash. Think successful small business owner with 3-4 SS sport models but not a lot of savings and suddenly they're shut down and not generating income. They won't like it, but they'll pick a watch or two and do it. This will bring the average acquisition price down for the GM dealers and then they can start discounting the stock they already had, because they too will need to keep money flowing. The first wave of job losses was pretty much all retail/service sector. Those people weren't buying Rolexes much anyway, but the job losses will start accelerating from here and bite people higher up the food chain. Many closed businesses have retained management in the hopes they can start back up soon, but how long can that last with no money coming in? I'm fortunate to know only one person so far that has lost their job, which was in an office that did commercial real estate leasing. 3 of the 5 people managing all the leases and paperwork were let go yesterday, and this is in an area with relatively few cases of the virus. That story will be repeated many times in the coming weeks. |
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#21 | |
Banned
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Uk
Watch: Daytona,hulk
Posts: 302
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Quote:
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially. Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy. |
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#22 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Alabama
Posts: 346
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Quote:
+1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Middle East
Posts: 1,808
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#24 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: East Coast
Posts: 57
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#25 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: UK
Posts: 794
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Quote:
But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset |
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#26 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 34
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future of watch market
Excellent write up. Very well put.
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#27 | |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: usa
Posts: 19,326
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#28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: VA
Watch: GMT Master 16750
Posts: 1,373
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Quote:
Absolutely spot on. Very well outlined and reasoned. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#29 | |
Banned
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Uk
Watch: Daytona,hulk
Posts: 302
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Quote:
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#30 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Middle East
Posts: 1,808
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