Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

Hi everyone
I started a conversation a few days ago about the grey market flooded with ceramic daytonas and batmans.
The overwhelming response was that prices would drop drastically
My personal feeling is that nothing will change, mainly because brands like AP and PP, which are just as hard to get (maybe harder) for years, have also flooded the grey market, but their prices stay high.
My valid question is, do those brands always sell quickly (in the grey market)?

[Nikrnic]

Supply and Demand. The market has been flourishing until recently, now in uncertain times most people are sitting back so prices are dropping somewhat temporarily, the higher the price the higher percentage drop. I don't see any panic situation where prices will plummet.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Podmornica]

I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by dmash

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

Yeah but I’m simply commenting that once the AD has stock, the greys will be forced to drop prices (steeply) or have forever sitting stock. It’s either sell at a loss or never sell.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

I agree with you. There is not a union, but it's in their best interest to work together and this is already happening to control price. A couple greys lowering prices set a precedent which has a trickle effect to the others. At some point, a small-time grey or someone without much working capital has to lower to survive, then it's house of cards from there. The larger players are talking to set prices for the interest of all involved (not customers obviously).

[bay-dweller]

Originally Posted by dmash

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already.

Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by bay-dweller

I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already.

Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive.

I tend to agree with you when thinking of years past, but SS market has been so crazy, I’ve seen most 3rd party watch dealers sell strictly Rolex/Ap/Patek because the margins are so insane compared to other brands. I mean, why would you blame them, and there was no end in sight.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by dmash

I tend to agree with you when thinking of years past, but SS market has been so crazy, I’ve seen most 3rd party watch dealers sell strictly Rolex/Ap/Patek because the margins are so insane compared to other brands. I mean, why would you blame them, and there was no end in sight.

One of the best parts about Greys is they also bring us discounted watches. In fact that was the case most of the time just three years ago. Not on the hot watches like Daytonas, 5711’s and new releases but on most everything else. Heck even AP sold at a discount back then.

We never saw this level of hate for the greys back then. It’s sad to see now.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[WatchNutcase]

Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!

I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!

I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases.

I agree on the AD availability part. However, I am not sure about the prices "dramatically drop" scenario at the grey dealers. If that happen, I expect the stampede effect to take place and the prices in that case might fall bellow the MSRP like they did before 2017. Though, I believe all grays are now holding tight and hoping the situation will clear and return to "normal" (shortage of SS models) in just couple of months. Though, nothing will be the same with such a massive job loss all over the USA.

Nobody knows for sure at this point. All eyes are now on the USA who is fighting with massive number of infected ppl, even more than China as I understood. Trump is promising a great rebound of economy later this year as I understood from the news ..

Hope you guys get through this quickly as that's what's most important now and I hope that if anything good can come up from this mess will be normalization of the watch market for us enthusiast.

[Deppe]

The ting is this: no one knows what will happen! We are in the middle of something that we haven’t experienced before, and no one knows how the end will turn out - not for the society as a whole and not for Rolex specifically.

People look at the markets and make the conclusion that Rolex sales will fluctuate with them. This is in my mind a pre-mature and lazy analysis. They might, and they might not - a much deeper analysis would have to be carried out to say anything conclusive regarding beta-values of the Rolex market, and the market as a whole.

Just remember, you have absolutely no way of knowing who sits behind the screens on the internet, but it is very easy to sound super confident that the prices will drop or the contrary- that they will rise. Just look at this thread already!

My best advice is to educate yourself on the subject and make your own conclusions.

To answer your question: as one other poster already said, it depends on the specific reference. Due to the current uncertainty, one could expect that even the most popular references would go a longer time without being sold.

[Cool watch]

Originally Posted by Deppe

The ting is this: no one knows what will happen! This is in my mind a pre-mature and lazy analysis.
Just remember, you have absolutely no way of knowing who sits behind the screens on the internet.

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Everything you’ve said is reasonable but you are basing it on one thing. You seem convinced that the economy is permanently tanked and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Everything you’ve said is reasonable but you are basing it on one thing. You seem convinced that the economy is permanently tanked and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.

Lol please don’t tell me you think this won’t have lingering effects. He’s simply being rational.

Three MILLION, not hundred thousand, MILLION new unemployment claims, business and cities still on lockdown, the virus growing exponentially. You think even if the virus completely disappeared this week, things would just pop back to normal? Not a chance.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Everything you’ve said is reasonable but you are basing it on one thing. You seem convinced that the economy is permanently tanked and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.

Which is my point exactly in the post that he is quoting - nobody knows if this is long term, and if it is, how long term.

[Michael T]

The point about the GM stops buying when they have to liquidate inventory is well taken.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Rather good analysis, and I always tip my cap to a rational person. I would like to add that the tipping point that will break this market and lead to drastic price decreases will be reached when the collector starts to sell in order to raise cash. Think successful small business owner with 3-4 SS sport models but not a lot of savings and suddenly they're shut down and not generating income. They won't like it, but they'll pick a watch or two and do it. This will bring the average acquisition price down for the GM dealers and then they can start discounting the stock they already had, because they too will need to keep money flowing.

The first wave of job losses was pretty much all retail/service sector. Those people weren't buying Rolexes much anyway, but the job losses will start accelerating from here and bite people higher up the food chain. Many closed businesses have retained management in the hopes they can start back up soon, but how long can that last with no money coming in?

I'm fortunate to know only one person so far that has lost their job, which was in an office that did commercial real estate leasing. 3 of the 5 people managing all the leases and paperwork were let go yesterday, and this is in an area with relatively few cases of the virus. That story will be repeated many times in the coming weeks.

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

[ngypheap]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

+1


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

So, basically, Rolex owners are immune to global recessions and they haven’t been affected by the 30% drop in the markets. At least that’s good to know.

[sousukef]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

That’s a silly assumption that there isn’t a percentage of rolex owners/buyers part of the millions filing for unemployment. You’re sharing anecdotal feedback without any concrete evidence. Heres some anecdotal feedback that counters your above statement: Two of my friends and their spouses work in the service/hospitality industry and they own 5+ rolexes each. Their industry is completely shutdown and they’ve been laid off for two weeks. Guess what they are not buying now?

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

I think the huge demand from the general public is from aspirational owners. Those that may have low to middling salaries, but minimal overheads - eg young people housesharing. These are the people who want to be fashionable and cool, have significant proportion of their salary being disposable income, and content to pay a lot of money for an asset that will only appreciate in value. Add in the kudos or obtaining something that is generally unobtainable, then you have potent demand driver.

But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow

If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset

[DayTona78]

Excellent write up. Very well put.

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Great post though I lol-Ed as champion is back for the kids

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Absolutely spot on. Very well outlined and reasoned.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!

I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases.

No,wishful thinking.Grey prices will not drop on hot models like the ceramic Daytona,blro etc.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Anton911

No,wishful thinking.Grey prices will not drop on hot models like the ceramic Daytona,blro etc.

Daytona already has