Greys not budging, just tried

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

Just tried to make an offer on a 116500 on chrono24
$19795 listed
Will not go any lower, even when mentioning 800 others listed
I dont know guys, I think everybody is going to hold out

[scottwmitch]

Thanks for the update. If you don't mind me asking, was your offer close or was it significantly lower?

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Just tried to make an offer on a 116500 on chrono24
$19795 listed
Will not go any lower, even when mentioning 800 others listed
I dont know guys, I think everybody is going to hold out

Was it white or black? Thanks.

[Michael V]

The reality of the situation hasn't hit them completely yet. We are still in shock mode.

[AK797]

If they can hold on they will hold on, with severe lockdowns in place this thing could start to turn in a couple of months, esp with public perception as the initial fear over this virus will have dissipated and the economist's voice will start to trump the medic's. With everyone now committed to combating this virus, this looks like a shorter term micro issue than a long term macro issue.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by AK797

If they can hold on they will hold on, with severe lockdowns in place this thing could start to turn in a couple of months, esp with public perception as the initial fear over this virus will have dissipated and the economist's voice will start to trump the medic's. With everyone now committed to combating this virus, this looks like a shorter term micro issue than a long term macro issue.

I hope you are correct but I suspect you are very wrong.

If the OP was in the UK I would snap his hand off for that offer -and would indeed take considerably less.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by andyxxx

I hope you are correct but I suspect you are very wrong.

If the OP was in the UK I would snap his hand off for that offer -and would indeed take considerably less.

I think not, unless this virus mutates to killing people under 60 at a 5% rate then it is politically untenable to cause a massive depression and millions in unemployment with society in chaos and deprivation, at least in the UK; so what will probably follow is in the summer things start to open up but older people will have to stay isolated for many more months, for them this will last a long time.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Just tried to make an offer on a 116500 on chrono24
$19795 listed
Will not go any lower, even when mentioning 800 others listed
I dont know guys, I think everybody is going to hold out

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

I think once the virus has run its course and we’re getting back to normalcy AND there’s still much less interest in the BLROs, Daytona’s, Hulks...then it’ll come crashing down

The greys are holding out bc they think it’s just the virus that’s causing this

[LigerBelair]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I think once the virus has run its course and we’re getting back to normalcy AND there’s still much less interest in the BLROs, Daytona’s, Hulks...then it’ll come crashing down

The greys are holding out bc they think it’s just the virus that’s causing this

I think that's a good call on your part.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

Agree and I don't think the recovery will be an instant bounce back so it will put more pressure on them over the coming months.

Also ALL Greys with inventory would have to hold out. As soon as a couple start lowering prices the rest will have to follow or just sit on stock that no one will buy hoping pricing get back to an all time high.

[Andrew NYC]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

I honestly think it'll take a few more months for prices to materially drop. A lot of the greys have low overhead and operate out of their homes, small office suites, etc. and those who have larger retail spaces likely haven't had more than a month or two of rent, salary, advertising costs since this thing begun here in the US. Also, based on the inflated market prices they have been enjoying over the past few years many greys may have squirreled away acorns so that they are able to ride something like this out, at least in the short term.

There's also the fact that once prices start to fall it can become a race to the bottom. Smart economics says no seller should lower their price but in challenging market conditions some sellers don't have that option. I suspect that while the temptation is there to drop prices to move inventory no one wants to make the first move. I don't remember clearly but I don't believe we saw massive fire sales in 2008 when the financial markets crashed. While this current situation may eclipse that I suspect that it will still take some time before the prices materially change more broadly.

[Craigdwh]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

the US economy is not shut down. Stop spreading fake news. stop speaking in absolutes.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Craigdwh

the US economy is not shut down. Stop spreading fake news. stop speaking in absolutes.

Nope, it's is shut down. The satellite pictures don't lie.

Satellite imagery combined with other photographic evidence and alternative data sources give a stark look at the U.S. situation: Airplanes are parked on unused runways, the busiest highways are empty during rush hour times, resorts have become ghost towns, ports are seeing sharp drops in shipping activity and more.

[Littletommy]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

Nope, it's is shut down. The satellite pictures don't lie.

Satellite imagery combined with other photographic evidence and alternative data sources give a stark look at the U.S. situation: Airplanes are parked on unused runways, the busiest highways are empty during rush hour times, resorts have become ghost towns, ports are seeing sharp drops in shipping activity and more.

Nope..the econony is not 'shut down'. That's a very broad and erroneous statement to make.

The economy has definitely tanked in some venues (particularly with my friends in the hospitality business), but the world/U.S. economy certainly is not 'shut down'. Where do people get these ideas? Too much TV?

[Ocog]

Originally Posted by Littletommy

Nope..the econony is not 'shut down'. That's a very broad and erroneous statement to make.

The economy has definitely tanked in some venues (particularly with my friends in the hospitality business), but the world/U.S. economy certainly is not 'shut down'. Where do people get these ideas? Too much TV?

I'm just as perplexed as you. I think a lot of the individuals on this forum aren't the brightest of lights.

Hoping for the market to drop so that they can finally buy a piece they cannot truly afford. I'm not saying all of the people on this forum but majority.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by Littletommy

Nope..the econony is not 'shut down'. That's a very broad and erroneous statement to make.

The economy has definitely tanked in some venues (particularly with my friends in the hospitality business), but the world/U.S. economy certainly is not 'shut down'. Where do people get these ideas? Too much TV?

Well it pretty much has shut down in the UK.
'Where do people get these ideas?' Are you kidding?

The building industry, large and small - virtually all shut down
Builders merchants largely shut
Schools shut
Estate agents, hair salons, all retail (apart from food), most manufacturing – shut.
Call centres – skeleton staff
Leisure, Tourism, Hospitality, bars, restaurants shut
Sports events shut
Hotels largely shut

[jlovda]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

The country may be shut down until May but the Market seems to think we have hit and passed the bottom. It's looking six months out. Wall Street may be feeling better.

[garyk]

They can probably hold steady for months. Supply on a global scale isn't huge IMHO...This might all be over by the time they would have to sacrifice inventory...Just my two cents...

[djyolky]

Originally Posted by garyk

They can probably hold steady for months. Supply on a global scale isn't huge IMHO...This might all be over by the time they would have to sacrifice inventory...Just my two cents...

They can't hold out for months because ADs are now/will be selling to first time customers at MSRP.

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[Calatrava r]

Supply chains are down right now so no new product. I see the prices softening at some point but only because owners will be selling creating abundant supply of used watches. Plus. I see the overall watch market softening from here. This cycle is running its course. It was overhyped and when that happens it eventually burns its self out. But their will always be a market for the used stuff so re-sellers will do fine if they buy right to maintain a sufficient margin to stay in business.

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

It was a black
I just asked what his lowest would be

[hark]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

It was a black
I just asked what his lowest would be

Dealer probably doesn’t want to negotiate against himself. Many dealers simply won’t respond to ‘what’s your lowest prices’ inquiries. You’d need to offer him a number that you’re willing to pay, and if he says yes you really should buy..

[schoolboy]

Originally Posted by hark

Dealer probably doesn’t want to negotiate against himself. Many dealers simply won’t respond to ‘what’s your lowest prices’ inquiries. You’d need to offer him a number that you’re willing to pay, and if he says yes you really should buy..

Agree


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[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by hark

Dealer probably doesn’t want to negotiate against himself. Many dealers simply won’t respond to ‘what’s your lowest prices’ inquiries. You’d need to offer him a number that you’re willing to pay, and if he says yes you really should buy..

Same. When I've sold a few watches in the past a "what's your lowest price" is given no response. If you really want it YOU need to make an offer.

[lastshotkid]

Originally Posted by hark

Dealer probably doesn’t want to negotiate against himself. Many dealers simply won’t respond to ‘what’s your lowest prices’ inquiries. You’d need to offer him a number that you’re willing to pay, and if he says yes you really should buy..

This is true. Maybe get back to them with a number. Most of the sellers are very reasonable.


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[c41006]

Originally Posted by hark

Dealer probably doesn’t want to negotiate against himself. Many dealers simply won’t respond to ‘what’s your lowest prices’ inquiries. You’d need to offer him a number that you’re willing to pay, and if he says yes you really should buy..

This! When I'm selling something and someone asks "what is your lowest price?" I always respond with the price I listed. If you want to make me an offer, make me an offer but don't ask what my best price is.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by c41006

This! When I'm selling something and someone asks "what is your lowest price?" I always respond with the price I listed. If you want to make me an offer, make me an offer but don't ask what my best price is.

Right, and it practically never ends in a completed sale. It’s a poor way to negotiate

[Muxi]

Originally Posted by c41006

This! When I'm selling something and someone asks "what is your lowest price?" I always respond with the price I listed. If you want to make me an offer, make me an offer but don't ask what my best price is.

Agree. If you give a lower amount he will just haggle from that lower amount. I do that. But I’m also ready to throw a specific number when asked.

[schoolboy]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

It was a black
I just asked what his lowest would be

Asking what the lowest will be doesn’t usually work

Maybe you can message him/her and say “hey I can offer $19,000”

Something like that might work