Is now really the time to buy?

[fiosity]

With all the great incomings recently, I called a local AD asking if it may be easier now to obtain some of the pieces I’ve been wanting. He said to the contrary, Rolex has been closed for a bit and they haven’t received any pieces in weeks. I take it that the I comings are from ADs who have been keeping hot pieces in their safes and releasing them now that they need the sales. Thoughts?

[bobabreath]

The time to buy is when new watches can be bargained below MSRP. Be prepared to spend more if you can't wait that long.

[Calatrava r]

I think supply of new watches will be very slow through year end. Rolex will lose 6 weeks of production or more and cannot make that up and I think they will moderate supply until they can gauge market demand to prevent brand devaluation and discounting.

[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I think supply of new watches will be very slow through year end. Rolex will lose 6 weeks of production or more and cannot make that up and I think they will moderate supply until they can gauge market demand to prevent brand devaluation and discounting.

I'm not sure I agree Bob.

Whether or not they can make up for 6 weeks of lost production is irrelevant to my mind. The demand simply won't be there in 6 weeks time going forward.

Also, even though they may moderate supply to prevent devaluation, MSRP is all they can realistically control. The market will determine the price and thus discounts that may be forthcoming.

Obviously I could be completely wrong on both counts.

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

I'm not sure I agree Bob.

Whether or not they can make up for 6 weeks of lost production is irrelevant to my mind. The demand simply won't be there in 6 weeks time going forward.

Also, even though they may moderate supply to prevent devaluation, MSRP is all they can realistically control. The market will determine the price and thus discounts that may be forthcoming.

Obviously I could be completely wrong on both counts.

I agree with you but on the other hand I do wonder if people will look to buy things that they’ve wanted because they now feel life is too short, things they’ve felt deprived of whilst in lockdown, new cars and other luxuries etc and also perhaps spend on items to substitute things that they still can’t have like their annual holiday abroad. Who knows?

[SeaDuba]

Originally Posted by 3sheets86

I agree with you but on the other hand I do wonder if people will look to buy things that they’ve wanted because they now feel life is too short, things they’ve felt deprived of whilst in lockdown, new cars and other luxuries etc and also perhaps spend on items to substitute things that they still can’t have like their annual holiday abroad. Who knows?

This pretty much sums up my feelings on this. If I get a call from my local AD that the Explorer 1 I want is in, I'll be right over.

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by SeaDuba

This pretty much sums up my feelings on this. If I get a call from my local AD that the Explorer 1 I want is in, I'll be right over.

I’m down for BLRO in June for my birthday, I doubt it will arrive now but if it does I’ll be having it. I want it because I want to wear it as I wear my old 16710 quite often and I’d like it’s younger brother but also I have no worries about paying MRSP for it because I don’t think it will ever lose a lot if anything at all if I had to sell it for whatever reason.

[Rado63]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I think supply of new watches will be very slow through year end. Rolex will lose 6 weeks of production or more and cannot make that up and I think they will moderate supply until they can gauge market demand to prevent brand devaluation and discounting.

I would tend to agree with this.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I think supply of new watches will be very slow through year end. Rolex will lose 6 weeks of production or more and cannot make that up and I think they will moderate supply until they can gauge market demand to prevent brand devaluation and discounting.

If the number of 800k watches per year is correct (I think it’s more) then we’re talking less than 100k pieces during the shutdown. In my mind that is nothing.

Have you seen Rolex’s automated stocking facility? It looks like this. There are 14 aisles like this. I don’t think there will be a problem with production.

[faimag]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

If the number of 800k watches per year is correct (I think it’s more) then we’re talking less than 100k pieces during the shutdown. In my mind that is nothing.

Have you seen Rolex’s automated stocking facility? It looks like this. There are 14 aisles like this. I don’t think there will be a problem with production.
[/IMG]

What's your point? There are also ample of diamonds in the world but supply is tightly controlled and limited to maintain the allure of rarity and exclusivity.

Plus, the number you quoted refers to ALL models Rolex makes. Divide it by the number of models and you will see it's not that much after all.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by faimag

What's your point? There are also ample of diamonds in the world but supply is tightly controlled and limited to maintain the allure of rarity and exclusivity.

Plus, the number you quoted refers to ALL models Rolex makes. Divide it by the number of models and you will see it's not that much after all.

The point is that I don’t think there’s any question as to whether Rolex can produce sufficient pieces. If there’s any type of shortage in all this it’s going to be a demand shortage.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by faimag

What's your point? There are also ample of diamonds in the world but supply is tightly controlled and limited to maintain the allure of rarity and exclusivity.

Yeah that strategy hasn’t worked out too well

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...-for-some-time

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

If the number of 800k watches per year is correct (I think it’s more) then we’re talking less than 100k pieces during the shutdown. In my mind that is nothing.

Have you seen Rolex’s automated stocking facility? It looks like this. There are 14 aisles like this. I don’t think there will be a problem with production.

A months production and supply lost is massive, no matter who you are.


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[Jona]

For me, I am not planning to make any large luxury purchases until things settle down. Being retired, my income stream is secure, but of course the economy affects everyone.

[Rowlf]

From a Private Seller? Yes! Deals are abundant.
From a Grey? Not yet. They’re not dealing. Yet.
From an AD? Maybe. Depends on your location and region’s long term plan.

[Pim]

Originally Posted by Rowlf

From a Private Seller? Yes! Deals are abundant.
From a Grey? Not yet. They’re not dealing. Yet.
From an AD? Maybe. Depends on your location and region’s long term plan.

+1
This

[fsprow]

Just like any market, one never knows.

Personally, if something I want is for sale, and the price "seems reasonable" - I buy it if funds are available. And I don't look back to see if my timing could have been better (it always could have been). Over the years, I've bought at MSRP, below it and above it. From AD's, resellers and private parties.

[campfire]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Just like any market, one never knows.

Personally, if something I want is for sale, and the price "seems reasonable" - I buy it if funds are available. And I don't look back to see if my timing could have been better (it always could have been). Over the years, I've bought at MSRP, below it and above it. From AD's, resellers and private parties.

Interesting. A bit same with me. When I get into the joy of the hunt, price/value is certainly something I focus on.

But years later (after continually enjoying the watch, trip or whatever), I can't even tell you how much I paid. And when I look at the receipt, I'm often surprised. (Sometimes because I paid lower. Other times because I paid higher.)

So within reason/responsibility, I share your general approach. Cheers.

[NYG1121]

yes

[drrd]

The time to buy is clearly not now because everything's shut.

When all the shops re-open and Rolex flood them with a ton of product then we will see if the public have the cash and the nerve to buy like before.

If sales are poor because everyone's either broke or sitting on their money then that's the time to buy.

As far as greys go, who knows. Depends how they run their ship so you'll only find out one-to-one when you speak to them.

[Harry-57]

The time to buy is when you want to buy it and are able to do so. It could be at the low point of a price dip, assuming you are buying the watch and not the dip.

If I'm hanging out for a bargain, I have to ask myself what I actually want - a bargain or the watch? There may be better bargains available, and not necessarily on watches.

[campfire]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

The time to buy is when you want to buy it and are able to do so. It could be at the low point of a price dip, assuming you are buying the watch and not the dip.

If I'm hanging out for a bargain, I have to ask myself what I actually want - a bargain or the watch? There may be better bargains available, and not necessarily on watches.

Nicely said.

[Amazing Lady]

Originally Posted by fiosity

With all the great incomings recently, I called a local AD asking if it may be easier now to obtain some of the pieces I’ve been wanting. He said to the contrary, Rolex has been closed for a bit and they haven’t received any pieces in weeks. I take it that the I comings are from ADs who have been keeping hot pieces in their safes and releasing them now that they need the sales. Thoughts?

Your last statement is correct. An AD called me with several for sale right before the dealer had to close. It was my thought that they wanted to very quickly sell the hot models that were being held in the back.

[Frank McKay]

Depends on your budget

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by fiosity

He said to the contrary, Rolex has been closed for a bit and they haven’t received any pieces in weeks.

In other words “Get away from me, kid, ‘ya bother me!” lol

[locutus49]

I have put out the word that I am a buyer of new Daytonas for 10K. So far not a sound. But I am patient.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I have put out the word that I am a buyer of new Daytonas for 10K. So far not a sound. But I am patient.

That's bold, but then again you are a Borg.

So just to confirm, you would turn an AD down that called and offered a Daytona for list price? ($13,150)

[garbanzo]

The craziness we have witnessed over the last 3 years is not coming back anytime soon - if in short term Rolex is not producing new watches, there will be abundance of pre-loved ones at the greys.
The recovery will be slow for luxury items, obviously there will be more important things to spend one’s money on for a year or two.
For a watch enthusiast, next couple of years will be happy hunting time !
(I know I won’t be in a hurry to buy the next one)

[casavova]

Daytona ! That sweet Daytona everyone’s wanted and how cheap it will go to $10k
Remember , everything is driven by demand
This one is at above mentioned price will be so lucky in 100years to find that broken down person who will let it go to a pawn shop for $15k and they’ll discounted to $10k for lack of buyers??? Just a thought !
Good luck with your search!


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[brandrea]

Yes, ADs have stock in their safes ... who knew