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#31 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Shreveport
Posts: 1,261
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#32 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 24
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I think the last 4 years has been an outlier in terms of all assets and luxury items. It was NOT the norm, and there has to be some sort of mean reversion (or else we are living in a fundamentally changed world..).
Pre 2018, and for decades prior, buying a rolex was always that simple. Just walk into an AD and buy. That didn't make it any less special, it was always a grail/milestone/special purchase for people. So even with tons of availability back then, rolex held it's brand and prestige and it's spot as king in the watch world. I think it will continue to and these purchases should be democratized IMO. The price tag alone is enough of a barrier to maintain its scarcity, no need to add even more hurdles by making them unavailable as well. |
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#33 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Sector 001
Posts: 300
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I think that Rolex and the Ad’s will continue this exhibition only BS because it has worked for them. Some of us in different markets with different AD’s will be offered a watch here and there, but even with the safe full watches they will say, oh Rolex is in such high demand we can put in a list? and maybe call you a few days later or not at all.
Unless things really go downhill and sales volume goes way down, then and only then we will see a real change. I’m hoping as others on here that this will end soon because as a long time Rolex enthusiast it is a real turn off when this happens. I have heard every story at the AD’s shortage, not available, never will be , etc…… As others have mentioned on here many times it all depends on your relationship with the AD’s the big ones like WOS don’t care they have plenty of customers and control the markets they are in. Just my $0.02 |
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#34 |
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Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Liverpool UK
Posts: 231
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Here's to hoping it is. It'll get rid of the invester crowd and flippers. More for us enthusiast. I see only good news personally.
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#35 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 1,519
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Quote:
Why in the world would they open new factories just to LIMIT supply? A ton of money goes into building new facilities and hiring new people, money that needs to be recouped, and yet they are going to... limit supply? How? By idling the very factories they just built? The idea that Rolex limits supply is a popular misconception that keeps getting thrown around. And yet their production always goes up, now to an estimated 1.25M watches/year. I would be willing to bet the state of affairs that has gone on since roughly the 2nd half of 2018 caught Rolex by surprise, it wasn't some engineered plan. The idea they all of a sudden want to constrain supply... why? So they can be like a Patek? Their entire infrastructure, product line, brand ethos, brand placement, marketing, etc is designed to be a company that churns out watches at an industrial level. They can't even be a JLC, much less a Patek. |
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#36 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,988
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Thank you. I was going the write the same thing but you stated it perfectly. I too don't understand why there is this belief that the "new factory" will make it rain Rolex upon the parched WIS masses? I agree as well, why would Rolex go back to cases full of Rolexes? If there is an economic slow down, I think Rolex and the AD network will double down on scarcity as that's a huge reason Rolex has been an inferno over the last 8yrs.... |
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#37 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 1,519
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Quote:
If they wanted to go more "upmarket" as some people think, they had a great opportunity the last couple of years. No need to open more factories, instead raise prices aggressively. They could easily raise the price of GMTs to $15k USD and demand would still be higher than supply, for example. Contrast this to what Richemont has been trying to do with their brands like JLC. You can't just snap a finger and suddenly become a company that competes with AP or Patek, Rolex would literally have to rebuild their company from the ground up. |
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#38 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 24
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#39 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: USA
Posts: 7
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#40 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 1,519
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Quote:
![]() Totally ignoring this was a massive demand issue that hit all luxury watches. During the most ridiculous times it wasn't a guarantee you could get a generic Seamaster by walking into Omega. The VC Overseas (non blue) was touching $40k in the secondary market, now it's basically a walk-in piece. |
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#41 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: USA
Posts: 7
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#42 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2020
Real Name: Mitchell
Location: EST, EAT
Watch: Trusty Explorer
Posts: 1,006
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The current state of Rolex is not solely due to sales practices, IMO. It's two parts; Rolex's strategy of going upmarket to cater toward the luxury segment (as opposed to 'tool') and yes, sales practices.
Objectively, Rolex makes shinier, more noticeable watches than they ever have. Consumer luxury segment is gobbling this up. Rolex also has control of their own supply chain. Those that love the new, shinier product, want to show how 'special' they are to own a stainless Rolex. If they were readily available, part of the mystique would disappear. Both product decisions and superior sales practices have led to this frenzy. Personally I'm partial to Rolex of old, but it's fun to watch people swoon over watches that are produced in the hundreds of thousands (even though millions want them). |
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#43 |
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Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: West Coast
Watch: EXP 39, GRNR, SeaQ
Posts: 923
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Slowing sales, will we get back to the past soon?
I don’t think the wait has made me feel it’s any more special. In fact it’s felt more, well, anticlimactic. I love the watch but the journey has been sour.
I totally agree that waiting for that first luxury watch / Rolex, and then finally getting it IS a big deal. But a large part of that is the years, savings, goal setting, someday I’m gonna get one of those, journey. Having to then wait once you’re ready isn’t a good part of that journey, especially to then have the pressure of AD games added on top of that. After that first one the wait is simply annoying. I look forward to Rolex effectively flooding the market (in a calculated way) and having the hope that in a few months the reference I’m interested in is available and that I can plan for its arrival, relatively speaking. I don’t care so much that the possible value of my new watch could be worth more than I paid as I walk out of the AD with it on my wrist. Hopefully those days will end soon. I’m okay that it may lose some value and maybe, maybe sometime down the road, after it’s been discontinued, and my eye catches another watch, I can sell or trade it for a certain value that may be more or less than I paid, but likely cover a good chunk of the cost for the next watch. Bring it on Rolex, be the brand we admire. We’re all tired of watching untrained, unprofessional, scammers, that try to make us believe they care about us on YouTube. Let’s see something different this time from you Rolex. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#44 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2015
Real Name: Mike
Location: Socal
Watch: AP/PP/Rolex
Posts: 1,958
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Personally, I see the Rolex watch market going back to 2018-2019 levels. Daytona's and certain sport models will still be hard to get, but most other lines can be had at a discount. This is probably going to be true for AP and PP as well. Other brands will be discounting to move inventory like in the past. Even though the demand and awareness of watches has grown significantly in the past 4 years, you can't avoid less discretionary spend during an economic downturn.
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#45 | |
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Real Name: Eddie
Location: Australia
Watch: A few.
Posts: 37,230
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Is the CPO program having an affect on the second hand market? Or is the CPO program pushing up the prices of second hand watches?
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#46 | |
Banned
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: The Doghouse
Watch: Ingersoll Mickey
Posts: 3,128
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Quote:
In my observation the CPO program has created a hierarchy between pre-owned watches sold by greys and ADs because greys can’t compete with the RSC service and two-year Rolex warranty. This is reflected in CPO pricing. The money buying CPO watches is coming from somewhere, it’s not new money, it’s money that would’ve been spent on watches elsewhere had CPO not been an option. Grey watches are still cheaper than CPO equivalents in my observation, at least the few I’ve compared. Are they more expensive than they used to be? I’ll leave that question for you. |
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#47 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Real Name: Martin
Location: England
Watch: Sea Dweller
Posts: 3,061
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Will buying a Rolex be as special if there is stock on the shelves?
That depends on you, what is often forgotten is that the majority of Rolex watches are bought by people who have no interest in building a collection or reselling it, they actually just want a really nice watch or watches to celebrate an occasion. For some just being able to walk into a store and buy a DJ or Submariner or GMT or whatever it is they want will be welcome, it won't make the watch any less special as they won't know about previous issues. I still believe that some watches PM, BLRO and Daytona might have a bit of a waiting list but not what it used to be. Owning a Rolex will still be special, unless its the chase that inspires you.
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Martin Small Rolex, Omega, Seiko and Oris Collection |
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#48 | |
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Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Pittsburgh
Watch: 126710BLNR Jubilee
Posts: 6,953
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Quote:
Walk-in datejust now, yes. Walk-in GMT, Sub or Daytona, no unless that person just walked into a lottery ticket. Not as long of a wait, but still no normal walk-ins for Rolex SS Sports watches. Many PMs are easier to get.
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#49 |
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Join Date: Apr 2015
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Posts: 332
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There are many aspects and many probabilities to consider, i think one should take into consideration that Rolex is very rich and in a much stonger financial position than it ever has been, the Rolex mania started in 2017 (prior to Covid) and peaked in 2021 until early 2022. The prices in 2024 have somewhat stabilized and avilablity of certain pieces have improved.
However, Rolex is a master in marketing tactics, the brand status has elevated and reached a point that require different strategy. This new strategy is mainly focused on improving the sales of precious metal in order to 1- Maintian the brand image in the upper luxury market and make it more exclusive 2- Increase profit While majority of stainless models will be limited and not easy to get to ensure that the market is not flooded and brand status is not devalued while keeping customers happy. Rolex is now more interested in selling to repetitive clients or ones that are looking to own more than one piece rather than a client who only wants one piece. Production is controlled even with the new manufacturing faciltities and will always be so (at least this is the plan), models like datejusts might be avilable again in few quatinities , but the ADs will have to follow Rolex strategy. Nowadays, all exhibition pieces that are displayed are actually pieces that are for sale, it is the AD/ Rolex who decides on how / when to sell. Making long story short, Rolex will not shoot it self in the foot |
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#50 |
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Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
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Depends on the hype. As long as the hype is there SS Rolex will be hard to get.
On a lighter note, PM pieces are plummeting Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#51 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Real Name: Martin
Location: England
Watch: Sea Dweller
Posts: 3,061
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Quote:
I am fully aware that popular stuff is still unobtainable, I know that I’m waiting.
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Martin Small Rolex, Omega, Seiko and Oris Collection |
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#52 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Pittsburgh
Watch: 126710BLNR Jubilee
Posts: 6,953
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