Market is Softening

[John Doyle]

Originally Posted by Porscheconvert

I just paid 21 for a Pepsi. Shopped it around and really tried hard to get one for less.

Agree economy is bad, but not rolex economy..l

So you basically just lost roughly 8k USD - not the end of the world if you like the watch.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Market Update - Update is 10/1

The price of pre-owned Rolex watches has been falling, with the WatchCharts Rolex index dropping 31% since its peak in March 2022. The Bloomberg Rolex Market Index has also fallen 40%.

It's a start.

[1st amg]

I have a feeling with the next few rounds of interest rate cuts to come, the luxury market including watches and cars will reverse this trend. Money is becoming cheaper and that's what triggered the massive increases in the first place.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by 1st amg

I have a feeling with the next few rounds of interest rate cuts to come, the luxury market including watches and cars will reverse this trend. Money is becoming cheaper and that's what triggered the massive increases in the first place.

I'd agree with the caveat that nothing like ZIRP appears to be on the horizon, so the deeply abnormal days are unlikely to return.

[Manamana]

ChronoTracker app on Apple Store tracks actual Insta action sales/no sale in Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Arabian Gulf. Very interesting results. 3 days trial will give you access to recent results.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by John Doyle

So you basically just lost roughly 8k USD - not the end of the world if you like the watch.

lol you’re crazy if you think Pepsi is going to be retail in the next 5 years. But sure, wishful thinking. And that’s before possible price increases.

Pepsi was trading at $18 BEFORE COVID craze, so now guys like you are of the opinion that it’s going to be BETTER than pre-COVID prices now?

I want some of what you all are smoking please it’s just completely non-sensical


I’m strongly of the opinion that a lot of people who have complained about the high prices, the price is NEVER going to be good enough, even at retail, and you’ll always be on the sidelines. Prices are at a good spot right now in my opinion, some models upwards of 50% off covid highs and stabilized a bit.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

lol you’re crazy if you think Pepsi is going to be retail in the next 5 years. But sure, wishful thinking. And that’s before possible price increases.

Pepsi was trading at $18 BEFORE COVID craze, so now guys like you are of the opinion that it’s going to be BETTER than pre-COVID prices now?

I want some of what you all are smoking please it’s just completely non-sensical


I’m strongly of the opinion that a lot of people who have complained about the high prices, the price is NEVER going to be good enough, even at retail, and you’ll always be on the sidelines. Prices are at a good spot right now in my opinion, some models upwards of 50% off covid highs and stabilized a bit.

yup lol it's basic psychology and applies to everything. everyone always wants a crash then the crash comes and it's either not good enough or they're too afraid

people have been crying for prices to go back to retail since 2020 but at the same time msrp has gone up a lot since then so naturally when retail prices finally come now everyone wants discounts because it's still much higher than pre covid

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by TheVision

Well....its not as simple as that.

Grey market prices are still NOT budging. Gmt, sub, daytona are still holding and fetching premiums....heck, even '23 datejust with smooth bezel are averaging $10k in grey market.

What has changed is private sales. Most models are no longer fetching premiums so people who wanna buy at retail and quickly do private sales are taking heavy losses so flippers are no longer after datejusts, explorer, precious metal anymore.

Grey market resellers (like the ones listed here..lol) are in overstock or '23''24 stock that they OVERPAID and now can't sell for under. Hence grey market prices are firm.

I sold my LV sub to bobswatches back in '22 (lost my job back then) and they overnighted $21k for a used sub!! Now they aren't even accepting trade-ins on LV sub as grey market LV prices is now at $15k.

But AD stock is definitely better ...I've seen a gradual increase of "I got the call" threads over at Reddit and even for people with no spend history.

With Rolex upping production in their new factories next year, the stock is only going to get better at AD. I don't think we'll return to pre Covid but getting sports models at retail won't be like pulling a tooth with rusty pliers.

This is a really good post. I will disagree about grey market pricing. While I agree that most grey dealers are currently sitting on a lot of inventory that they are under water on, at some point that “standing firm” comes to an end. Many grey dealers (like many businesses in any industry) have real money tied up in inventory. Maybe it’s private equity, maybe it’s a line of credit, but at some point they need to churn inventory, even if it means a loss (see the used car market).

I think your Bobs watches scenario says A LOT. The ride is over.

Originally Posted by TheVision

Yep. I own 2 rentals in CA and despite prices stalling earlier in the year, they are still at double what I bought them for. I don't think CA real estate is dipping anytime soon...if anything, its only going up as CA is the hub of big income earners (software guys making around $300k with WFH jobs).

Not to make this about RE, but I don’t know how you make money on rentals in many parts of California. Also, $300,000 is certainly not a big income earner in the areas I’m thinking about. If you’re in the tech areas, 300,000 and you’re eating Ramen noodles.

Originally Posted by SLWoodster

Rolex doesn't need to re-ignite hype.

Secondary market demand does not accurately gauge retail market demand. Just because a watch on secondary is selling below retail price doesn't mean anyone can just walk in and grab that one config at anytime. We're pretty far from that. Seems everyone forgot, there were almost no stainless sports watches in the case in 2019 aside from an air king or explorer 2 here and there. We also don't know what Rolex considers a healthy inventory turnover. Is that... 7 days in inventory? 30 days in inventory? 100 days in inventory? Also if anything, it can just discount like it has done for 114 years of it's 119 years of existence. These companies generally think in decades, not like regular consumers thinking about how the next 12 months is crucial for Rolex... lol. Sales have steadily grown over its 115 years of existence before the 2020-2024 hype. To forecast a 119y brand using the last 4y is extremely short sighted.



This is happening in pretty much all collectible markets where the mass market stuff that people were gobbling up during covid have been dropping. This is also the time to re-evaluate what an "investment watch" actually is. Actually rare watches are still breaking records. The upcoming November auctions will show the Rainbow daytona breaking records. In 2023. That milgauss with bezel, platinum yachtmaster, and daytona gemset 6290 were purchased for over $3m. Marlon Brandon's GMT came back up for auction. It quadrupled in price in 4 years.

To the contrary of what you posted, I think the secondary market has a large effect on a company that sells as many widgets as Rolex. On the flipside, you use very specific, one off examples, to support that the market is strong. I don’t think a watch owned by Marlon Brando selling at auction has anything to do With the state of the overall Rolex market. The secondary market dipping will absolutely turn away speculators, investors, and gray market dealers who have been gobbling them up as new. This will allow more of the average consumer who is just looking for “a watch” to walk in and purchase one at retail, thus driving down the secondary demand, and along with it the prices. Rolex has always had a very strong secondary market and has been a safe place to keep your money. I think that will certainly continue, but this ridiculous bubble of selling over retail for mass produced, still in production pieces, is gladly coming to an end in my opinion.

[AAVDB]

Definitely see this happening. Here in Holland, saw a Deep Sea and a date just steel wimbledon for sale. (and TT - Full gold) Aprox 15 pieces, so thats way more than the standard 0.

[rolph]

The combination of a sluggish economy and rising interest rates definitely seems to be impacting consumer spending, leading to a more buyer friendly climate.

[Porscheconvert]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

My condolences


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lol.

[1William]

Data is king but how you read it is also important. When we talk of the highs of the Covid times, how many watches were sold for all time highs? It is apparent that some will continue to use the high numbers of Covid as the point of reference for sales numbers now. Flawed reasoning at best, at worst it is just click bait to drive "The Sky is Falling Crowd" that loves to talk about the economy, interest rates and how we are always close to a recession/depression. What this data also fails to acknowledge is the total number of models available and the variations inside the model lineup. I assume that there are at least 100k Date Just models sold in a year in all types of variations. I would also assume that maybe 1/10th of that number produced are Daytona's/Pepsi's and any other desirable model. Without being able to go deep into actual sales figures from most if not all points of sale and production numbers we are at some point just speculating. Has the market softened since the highs, absolutely. Are less desirable, more high production models selling for less in the secondary market, yes. But you are still not getting the desirable models from AD's on a regular basis and the secondary market supports the prices that they can get. As far as paying 21k for a Pepsi, good for the member who bought it at the best price he was comfortable with. Great watch and value at the market price. Will he lose money on it? Maybe, if he sales right away but give it a few years and he may make money if he sales. If the model is discontinued then he will make more. But he has the watch he wants and can wear and enjoy it now. Good for him.

[Mozzchops]

I think it's all going to end in tears for Rolex. I bought a YM white gold 14 months ago, retail. I like the watch (but nowhere near as comfortable as a GMT on jubilee) . I was looking at getting a full gold GMT and asked for a PX price. 17k. 30% drop in a year is unsustainable for any business.

Add to this that in the UK the AD's treat you like sh*t and it all adds up to a big mess. They need to shift big pieces, can't, so where does it all end ?

Who knows. I'm just looking to get back to normality. I got a batgirl retail no spend history.

Don't be fooled, AD's have LOTS of SS in stock. They have just been able to restrict supply.

The party is over...

[Tim Plains]

I don't think the downward trajectory will continue for long. Inflation here in Canada was 1.6% last month, interest rates are expected to drop again by a half point soon, if interest keeps dropping and people have spare cash again, market prices will probably increase.

Me, personally, I want values to drop.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

I don't think the downward trajectory will continue for long. Inflation here in Canada was 1.6% last month, interest rates are expected to drop again by a half point soon, if interest keeps dropping and people have spare cash again, market prices will probably increase.

Me, personally, I want values to drop.

I didn’t realize you’re Canadian

I tend to think you’re right to a point.

I’ll add … that when I bought a Snoopy, I went gray and paid about $5k over retail. It didn’t fuss me because I figured if I had to wait 5 years to get one, the regular retail price would probably be close to what I had to pay in todays dollars.

Bottom line, you either wait to buy at retail or you pay what you’re comfortable with on the secondary market.

[CH69]

The current (post covid) grey market pricing where one can make a profit by selling a used watch is abnormal and never meant to be sustainable. My definition of Rolex price dropping is measuring it at ADs when discounts are starting to be offered again…although I am not sure if this will happen anytime soon. My ADs tell me that they still have a lot of backlog orders to be fulfilled.

[Manamana]

Definitely at least these scenarios will come back soon. If not even better as this is at minimum in my opinion.

Discount 10-25% on gold or unpopular models.

Pepsi, buy two DJs or unpopular dial gold DD or FG model. All other GMTs will either be available without previous spend or minimal spend.

Steel Daytona, buy 3 DJs or two Gold DD or other unpopular Gold model or some Tudors, and wait 2-3 years and get one. TT Daytonas in case.

Off catalogue popular models will always need high spend, but market prices for these will at least fall a further 30-50%. Le Mans, Rainbow Daytona, etc

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Manamana

Definitely at least these scenarios will come back soon. If not even better as this is at minimum in my opinion.

Discount 10-25% on gold or unpopular models.

Pepsi, buy two DJs or unpopular dial gold DD or FG model. All other GMTs will either be available without previous spend or minimal spend.

Steel Daytona, buy 3 DJs or two Gold DD or other unpopular Gold model or some Tudors, and wait 2-3 years and get one. TT Daytonas in case.

Off catalogue popular models will always need high spend, but market prices for these will at least fall a further 30-50%. Le Mans, Rainbow Daytona, etc

You grossly underestimate how many new people are into watches for those scenarios to pan out

You also underestimate Rolex’s abilities to curtail production to meet demand exactly as they want.

Keep dreaming in my opinion guys. I literally think, for at least the foreseeable future, we NEVER see hot models in windows ever again. The game has changed. Period.

[Calatrava r]

Most of the time when you buy any hyped watch at used market prices, you will lose a lot of money in the short term. The amount of money you lose is the dealer's margin. What they will sell a watch for less what they will buy it for, at any given time, is the margin amount. The margin increases as the market stabilizes or softens. It shrinks in a rising market as dealers have to bid and compete for scarcer product.

[Manamana]

Originally Posted by dmash

You grossly underestimate how many new people are into watches for those scenarios to pan out

This is returning to 2018-2019. Platinum Daytona in the case, gold DD all available, 10% to 20% on gold except Daytona, TT Daytona in case, and Batman with minimal spend from personal experience. Also a big percentage are not spending on luxury goods now, flippers out, so many grey dealers are out of business or being bought out. Demand is declining overall. Rolex is increasing production not cutting it, Rolex, Patek, AP were all much under retail for most models. Market prices are further coming back down, and the US is a lagging market vs the rest of the world because the economy is still resilient, it may take longer.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Manamana

This is returning to 2018-2019. Platinum Daytona in the case, gold DD all available, 10% to 20% on gold except Daytona, TT Daytona in case, and Batman with minimal spend from personal experience. Also a big percentage are not spending on luxury goods now, flippers out, so many grey dealers are out of business or being bought out. Demand is declining overall. Rolex is increasing production not cutting it, Rolex, Patek, AP were all much under retail for most models. Market prices are further coming back down, and the US is a lagging market vs the rest of the world, it may take longer.

LOL some of you guys just talk to talk, I swear. I’m sorry but that’s just fantasy. There’s many DD configs trading above retail at the moment, especially ombré. Platinum Daytona in the case? lol where, I’ll buy 5

But anyways I’m not going to back and forth with you. We can agree to disagree

[Manamana]

Originally Posted by dmash

LOL some of you guys just talk to talk, I swear. I’m sorry but that’s just fantasy. There’s many DD configs trading above retail at the moment, especially ombré. Platinum Daytona in the case? lol where, I’ll buy 5

But anyways I’m not going to back and forth with you. We can agree to disagree

Yes Platona in the case in 2018-2019 not now, read before you comment. Most DD are under retail, Green, ombre dial, etc will come further close to retail, 2018 there was no green or ombre dial DD hence I said all DD under. Rolex will bump production and sell more like it always does especially on precious metal models. Take a look at the production numbers of hyped models in the Submariner book and the same high numbers will be in the Daytona and the GMT book.

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by cdmorenot

Dang! Now I'm going to have to hold on to all these "investment" watches I purchased not long ago. Wife is going to be pissed off. Can't lock in the losses.

[sudo_root]

Anyone who wants to see the actual value of an asset needs to try to offload said asset. Asking prices are meaningless benchmarks, call an AD / 2nd hand reseller and ask for a quote for any particular reference to see what it’s actually worth. For the majority of references, you’ll be lucky to get offered MSRP, and more likely to be well under MSRP. Which means, for most resellers they’re banking on moving lower volume at higher margins (inflated asking prices) to slowly ease their way out of their underwater inventory positions. The worst thing about it, is there’s enough idiots out there, so desperate to wrap their wrists in metal and ceramic they decide it’s worth offering a micro bail out to speculators instead of carrying on with their lives. Those that stay out of the racket meanwhile, are in increasing numbers getting calls/texts to purchase what’s also in increasing numbers a product that no longer carries the interest it once held to them, compounding the steady effect of depreciation as evidenced in the links in this thread.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Starhutch

Mods, please move this to that dark hole of a sub forum “watch out” where people that care can discuss.

Just ignoring it and scrolling on by is also an option…

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by majidessa

There is also the fact that Rolex produces around 1.2 million watches a year which is quite alot for a luxury brand, production has increased by 25% prior to covid.

In addition flippers have become almost extinct with the market softening, and hot pieces are now offered to vip clients with strong profile and purchase history.

What needs to be seen what marketing strategy Rolex will apply as either wait lists will mostly disappear and AD cases will be filled again with most models or Rolex might try to come with something new to reignite hype, the next 12 months will be crucial.

There is also the fact that with market softening Rolex CPO will disappear soon

Curious to hear how hot pieces were moved by ADs in the past if selling to VIPs is the new plan?