Big price increase in Europe as of 1st January 2020

[timy]

Originally Posted by unknown

Btw

Tudor also will go up but I don’t know how much yet

And IWC too

Both also January

Tudor rose 5% in November in the UK.

[jrox]

Originally Posted by unknown

Btw

Tudor also will go up but I don’t know how much yet

And IWC too

Both also January

Tudor prices just went up in November. Another increase, really?

[unknown]

Originally Posted by jrox

Tudor prices just went up in November. Another increase, really?

I’m talking about euro prices
Not UK
But knowing Tudor is a lot cheaper in the UK I think they should add at least 15% to be on par with the EU

But the increase is afaik only in europe

[cdubg21]

Originally Posted by Phil t 32

Won’t the ‘flippers’ just increase their prices by said % Rolex increase?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Seems word is spreading...two 116500LN white dials have been posted today in the classifieds for $26,500+........insane

[Fire bloke]

Wow I can hardly believe it average 9% price rise on April 1st ..... Will believe it when I see it oops auto text should have said January 1st

[SS Oyster]

When MSRP goes up, secondary market prices rise the same, the grey market margin doesn’t go down. When has that ever been the case? Never.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[UK_]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

When MSRP goes up, secondary market prices rise the same, the grey market margin doesn’t go down. When has that ever been the case? Never.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So with Rolex watches, demand is completely inelastic to price? Genuine question.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pesto628]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

When MSRP goes up, secondary market prices rise the same, the grey market margin doesn’t go down. When has that ever been the case? Never.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just curious what evidence you can provide that this has "never" happened. From what I can see, prices on the secondary market have no direct correlation to MSRP and fluctuate all the time.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Mperry10

It seems likely this is true. Omega recently put their prices up 5% in the UK.

Apples and Oranges....

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

When MSRP goes up, secondary market prices rise the same, the grey market margin doesn’t go down. When has that ever been the case? Never.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So true.......

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by UK_

So with Rolex watches, demand is completely inelastic to price? Genuine question.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not them all but you could compare their sports line to a number of recreational drugs so I'd guess yes lol

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by UK_

So with Rolex watches, demand is completely inelastic to price? Genuine question.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No for the majority of middle class potential buyers, price does matter . But to some buyers, demand is less elastic than the average Joe's

If Rolex raise prices, greys will follow suite and push prices up by a similar margin as Rolex. Greys already fix prices well above retail price, they stockpile the hot models and create a false scarcity. They count on the fact there'll always be someone prepared to pay well over the odds for a sought after piece, its rarity exacerbated by greys' hoarding these hot models. It's all a big oligopolostic market manipulation. Greys know some buyers will play the game, those relatively less influenced by the higher price. Some ADs act in a similar fashion by selling hot pieces to VIPs only, the big spenders.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Busyboy

It's got to end.... Surely... At some point

If not end then just be less margin

Greys will certainly keep their margins at first and it's doubtful a minor rise in retail and the grey's price will make much difference to either market, esp now the mood here with the majority win is quite optimistic after three years of stalemate, the FTSE and £ are on the rise so even a downturn here looks at least delayed as lots of money will be pumped into infrastructure and austerity is declared over, along with fiscal conservatism.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

No for the majority of middle class potential buyers, price does matter . But to some buyers, demand is less elastic than the average Joe's

If Rolex raise prices, greys will follow suite and push prices up by a similar margin as Rolex. Greys already fix prices well above retail price, they stockpile the hot models and create a false scarcity. They count on the fact there'll always be someone prepared to pay well over the odds for a sought after piece, its rarity exacerbated by greys' hoarding these hot models. It's all a big oligopolostic market manipulation. Greys know some buyers will play the game, those relatively less influenced by the higher price. Some ADs act in a similar fashion by selling hot pieces to VIPs only, the big spenders.

I guess that is what I have been struggling to understand - in a normal market, the grey dealers would be price takers, rather than price makers. So a price increase by the AD, with relatively elastic demand would just eat into their margins.

I understand the point of the hoarding to constrain supply (look at the UK new build housing market for another example), but surely the level of stock piling must be massive, and given this is really only a 2 year old issue, they are running massive risk sitting on top of these models?

In any normal competitive market there would be grey dealers who don’t care and just undercut the larger ones to move stock quickly, why does that not happen in this market? Network affects (knowing the ADs who are willing to play)?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Highlatitude]

The logical conclusion of larger than inflation annual price increases is that eventually a steel Rolex will cost more than a car, then more than a house.

Clearly this won’t happen because Rolex are not Patek or Lange. They are everyday watches for the middle classes made in large numbers by machine. So I wonder how all this will end.

[winst]

Originally Posted by unknown

Btw

Tudor also will go up but I don’t know how much yet

And IWC too

Both also January

Tudor already went up in November by just under 5% - list price of my Black Bay 41 Blue Diall went from £2150 up to £2250.

I have been less to believe there is another Tudor increase due in first half of next year again.

[little tomato]

Originally Posted by cloudplay

No idea whether the AD indeed knows something or not, but this makes sense. Currently prices incl. VAT in Europe are about the same as pre-tax prices in the US. After VAT refund prices in Europe are >10% lower than in the US, before US sales taxes.

Maybe a 10% increase will improve local supply in Europe, which seems to be even worse than in the US.

I saved 20% off of US price of a DJ36 prior not counting sales tax. However, this was Heathrow, late Sept.

[Bryano1028]

So a YG DD 40 is going to be almost 40k and SKYD almost 50k. I’m not sure how many they’ll move at that price. I could be wrong.

[Harry-57]

Pay day for Rolex, grey dealers and flippers. Shame about the rest of us. Until demand reduces by a considerable margin, Rolex could double their MSRPs and the grey market would just double its profits.

One could argue that Rolex are trying to push the market towards this, so that people will refuse to pay a grey margin over an increased MSRP. But in the short to medium term it will just enable gougers. In the longer term it will push the whole range up a level or two and close the trap door behind them. Great if you've got big money to drop on a watch. But if you did, why buy a Rolex? They're made by the million.

[bazin]

Price increase for Germany starting from 01-01-2020....average approx 6,8 %......
Cpl. price list available from 01-01-2020
Prices in Euro (€ )......€ 1 equivalent with $ 1,114

Some examples:
Sea-Dweller 10900,-
GMT 9000,-
Submariner 7350,-
Submariner Date 8350,-
Daytona 12250,-
Sky 13850,-
Deepsea 126660 mit schwarzem Zifferblatt 11800,-
Yachtmaster 126622 11150,-
Hulk 8750,-
116613 LB 13150,-
116503 16300,-
126300 7150,- (7350,- Jubi)
126334 9000,- (9200,- Jubi)
Explorer 216570 7750,-
126333 BIco / Jubi 12350,-
126711CHNR 13850,-
DJ36 Stahl gelbgold 10300,- Oyster........10900,- Jubilé
228235 36700,-
228238 34100,-
228239 36700,-
Air King 116900 6000,-
Milgauss 116400 7750,-
126719 Meteorit 37350,-

Calculation percentages of a German Rolex forum member....some examples...
Sub no date 6.800 - 7.350 +8,08%
Sub date 7.750 - 8.350 +7,74%
Sub Hulk 8.200 - 8.750 +6,70%
GMT BLNR / BLRO 8.400 - 9.000 +7,14%
See dweller 10.350 - 10.900 +5,31%
Deepsea schwarz 11.200 - 11.800 +5,35%
Deepsea blue Cameron 11.450 - ??
Explorer 5.900 - 6.050 +2,54%
Explorer 2 7.350 - 7.750 +5,44%
Daytona 11.300 - 12.250 +8,40%

[Coolex]

lmao haven't seen a post like this in awhile. Used to be all the rage when you could actually go into a store and see a steel model in a case.

Now the AD gossip is "they're discontinuing X, or the supply of Y is really going to slow down in a month" etc..

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by UK_

I guess that is what I have been struggling to understand - in a normal market, the grey dealers would be price takers, rather than price makers.

Greys are price makers in the sense that their behaviour can influence the market price. Essentially they test waters by fixing their price at the highest possible level they think they can sell, they'll keep it there for as long as they can sit on unsold stock. Since there's such high demand, there's likely someone willing to pay the price although these buyers are in a minority. To some extent, Rolex sports steel watches don't have perfect substitutes which allows greys to keep their prices high in an oligopolistic competition. Also, they make the trade-in price at which they'll buy pieces from the general public. That gives them extra flexibility when deciding on their sell price.
.

Originally Posted by UK_

I understand the point of the hoarding to constrain supply (look at the UK new build housing market for another example), but surely the level of stock piling must be massive, and given this is really only a 2 year old issue, they are running massive risk sitting on top of these models?

The stock piling is massive if you add up all the resellers. Some YouTubers mentioned figures in the order of more than 50 SS Pepsis, Hulks or SS Daytona's sitting in some greys inventories.
It's a controlled risk, they have margin of manoeuvre to adjust the price down if stock stays unsold longer than they're comfortable with, bearing in mind these products are in high demand.

Originally Posted by UK_

In any normal competitive market there would be grey dealers who don’t care and just undercut the larger ones to move stock quickly, why does that not happen in this market?

This already happens, the grey dealers with the highest reputation command the highest prices (e.g. Watchfinder). The smaller dealers with a less prominent status will offer the same pieces at a lower price or will accept lower offers from buyers.

[glamorama]

That's quite an increase on MSRP but long overdue I suppose.

It's more than likely that a price increase like this will increase price from Rolex to AD and then AD to consumer. So far the AD's have probably enjoyed all the benefits of Rolex popularity since net effect is they could charge MSRP for almost all watches during last 1-2 years (by bundling etc.). Rolex charged ADs what they always did strictly to price list, or do ADs get kickback from Rolex according to volume?



For sensitive readers that do not like speculation stop reading here.

I believe 2020 will be a veeery interesting year for new Rolex releases. I'm definitely reading to much into this but here it goes, Explorer was only increased 2,54% whereas Exp II 5,44%. I was expecting an Explorer update 2020, this seems unlikely now. Explorer II is supposedly 50 year 2021 but maybe Rolex is doing it a little early by releasing a PM Exp II and the SS 2021.

[ratty]

Until there are watches available for me to buy at the ADs, does it really matter?

[WatchLurv]

Great. My collection goes up in value!

[RailBird17]

Affecting PM as well? Waiting for a 116519ln

[joli160]

Nothing is going to change. A buyer willing to spent 10K will also pay 11K.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Greys are price makers in the sense that their behaviour can influence the market price. Essentially they test waters by fixing their price at the highest possible level they think they can sell, they'll keep it there for as long as they can sit on unsold stock. Since there's such high demand, there's likely someone willing to pay the price although these buyers are in a minority. To some extent, Rolex sports steel watches don't have perfect substitutes which allows greys to keep their prices high in an oligopolistic competition. Also, they make the trade-in price at which they'll buy pieces from the general public. That gives them extra flexibility when deciding on their sell price.
.

The stock piling is massive if you add up all the resellers. Some YouTubers mentioned figures in the order of more than 50 SS Pepsis, Hulks or SS Daytona's sitting in some greys inventories.
It's a controlled risk, they have margin of manoeuvre to adjust the price down if stock stays unsold longer than they're comfortable with, bearing in mind these products are in high demand.



This already happens, the grey dealers with the highest reputation command the highest prices (e.g. Watchfinder). The smaller dealers with a less prominent status will offer the same pieces at a lower price or will accept lower offers from buyers.

Thanks.

The most sound and sensible reasons I have seen yet for what is going on in this strange market.

What’s your prediction on prices next year?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rwatcher]

Seems a few people are confident with a UK rise come Jan 2020.

Mite force my hand here to purchase the DJ36 I want from another AD that his it in stock. A gamble of 5-10% not willing to take for a DJ.

[crazymcmichael]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I didn’t think Rolex shares this info with the Ads until the morning of? Per my AD they are set to increase the price every time I walk in. He’s been telling me that since 2017