Is the return to normalcy imminent?

[stevestil]

I think that normalcy is never coming back, to be honest. I don’t think we’ll ever see the days of SS sports watches in the display case and I think every AD will use SS watches as leverage to move other things that otherwise wouldn’t move.


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[Halifax Daytona UK]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Like dmash noted a lot of competition in Socal. I restarted about 2 1/2 years ago after my AD of approx. 25 yrs lost Rolex. I'm on the "list" for a Pepsi and Panda but after $175k in spend history I asked if I could get a Batgirl before the end of the year for either my bday or Xmas this year.

All they said is "they would try." I have gotten Subs (PM and SS) and a Daytona (PM) over the last 2 1/2 yrs.

WTF , you’ve spent $175k on other stuff you don’t really want , should have gone grey

[Rolexatlast]

Plenty of wishful thinking and ongoing hype in this thread. Prices are dropping and stock becoming ever more available.

To those who say the Rolex distribution will keep prices high, I counter that decreasing demand with increased production from the new factory will force prices lower despite whatever tricks Greys and ADs try. The market always wins.

Further reducing prices further reduces demand from those who are only see £££ when they look at Rolex. This in turn pushes down prices further. That million+ production needs to find buyers somewhere.

Luckily for many, mitigation from dealers seems to ensuring we are having a ‘soft’ landing. But there is no evidence that we are at the bottom of the market. Two years of consistent price falls is not outweighed by one month of increases.

No hurry to buy today, as prices will be lower tomorrow

[Bartolo]

Originally Posted by EverCloserUnion

I can only comment directly on my one experience of buying a Rolex DJ 41 (Azzuro blue, roman dial, smooth bezel) at a AD in the south of England recently (it was in the window, I walked in, and left with the watch after 45 minutes).

Looking at the market more broadly, there are a number of factors that point to slacker demand (at least at the lower end of the Rolex and luxury watch market): the Covid ‘shunt’ (increasing demand while decreasing supply) is working its way out. A prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates meant that passion assets in general (and luxury watches in particular) performed very well, but that applies less now: higher rates mean that money is more expensive and the ‘risk free’ rate of return has increased.

We also have country specific factors at play (such as the slow-down in China sending many of their recently emerged upper middle class back to earth with a bump). Anti-corruption drives in a number of markets will be a factor too.

Countering these trends, I’d expect to see sellers restricting supply where able (rather than pouring in to a declined market), but equally many ‘professional’ resellers will have debts to service / repay and will presumably need to focus on cash flow too.

Just my tuppence worth – my experience of watch markets is rather limited. My experience as an economist spans two decades.

I absolutely predict that manufactures will limit production waaaaay before they let the retail outlets get flooded with product.

And yeah many gray market sellers are probably still sitting on inventory . . . but I think that overall that's not THAT many pieces in the entire ecosystem. They'll get moved . . . and those dealers will go back to buying and selling for their std margins. I strongly suspect that most have already burned off their upside-down inventory and are back to buying and selling.

[Bartolo]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

No hurry to buy today, as prices will be lower tomorrow

This is the mentality by which you never end up wearing what you want to wear. "I'll be cheaper in the future."

[eugenetsang]

LOL tricked me thinking DSW was selling this for $8k. Went on his website and saw him selling it for $23k+

[Hkspwrsche]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

From my perspective "normal" was 2018-19. I think we're there or thereabouts now. If you're talking about walking in and buying any model, I don't know when you could do that. I was offered a place on a waitlist for the 16610LV in 2009 so it wasn't possible for me 15 years ago.

In 07 I got 30% off my Omega 2254.50

I remember having to think about it when they offered me 10% off Rolex in 2007. That dealer (Jared in VA) no longer has Rolex of course.

I recall getting a good deal on my M serial 3186 GMT Pepsi in 08. A little under msrp.

In 2018 I sold it intending to go walk in and buy a new ceramic Pepsi. I was perplexed when they said they’d put me on a list. Then that location lost Rolex. Then I moved to a new store. And the games began! 2022 before I got it!

No one had a Stainless Daytona in stock at any point in my shopping. Even in the old days.

I have mostly varied and vintage stuff but I do have all the modern stuff I need.

[SLS]

In my experience it is cyclical. This reminds of of 08/09. A lot of people had to liquidate back then. It is nowhere near as bad, but it's certainly a lot easier to find what you are looking for now. I've been MIA for quite a while at my SD and after chatting with the salesperson, I was offered the left handed GMT, which I passed on.

[SamArj]

Originally Posted by casadecamporolex

China might be a softening market, but India is picking up the slack for Rolex watches.
Recent article stated the exploding economy and desire to own luxury goods.
With the new Rolex template for distribution, things will never return to the good old days of 25% off SS Subs, 30% off PM and 15% off virtually everything else.
Daytonas were never in that realm.
Back in 2004, my wife bought me the original Sub LV for 20% off as no one wanted them.

Funnily enough I popped into a Rolex store in India recently...because you never know right? Lol
Really really friendly staff so I got chatting to one of the senior SA. I mentioned I was from the UK and that we were now seeing models for immediate sale in the stores. He looked genuinely shocked, he said they are still in a position where every piece is sold to either the first or second person on their register. Absolutely nothing for walk ins.
He was encouraging me to try stuff on and register but I explained that I'm only passing through.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Bartolo

This is the mentality by which you never end up wearing what you want to wear. "I'll be cheaper in the future."

I was a hold out in 2018 for a white SS Daytona thinking this and it ended up costing me another $10k to land a ss Daytona 5 years later.

[SamArj]

Originally Posted by casadecamporolex

China might be a softening market, but India is picking up the slack for Rolex watches.
Recent article stated the exploding economy and desire to own luxury goods.
With the new Rolex template for distribution, things will never return to the good old days of 25% off SS Subs, 30% off PM and 15% off virtually everything else.
Daytonas were never in that realm.
Back in 2004, my wife bought me the original Sub LV for 20% off as no one wanted them.

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Plenty of wishful thinking and ongoing hype in this thread. Prices are dropping and stock becoming ever more available.

To those who say the Rolex distribution will keep prices high, I counter that decreasing demand with increased production from the new factory will force prices lower despite whatever tricks Greys and ADs try. The market always wins.

Further reducing prices further reduces demand from those who are only see £££ when they look at Rolex. This in turn pushes down prices further. That million+ production needs to find buyers somewhere.

Luckily for many, mitigation from dealers seems to ensuring we are having a ‘soft’ landing. But there is no evidence that we are at the bottom of the market. Two years of consistent price falls is not outweighed by one month of increases.

No hurry to buy today, as prices will be lower tomorrow

No hype from me but I'm not sure Rolex want that to happen.
There is a balance point where a luxury manufacturer sells enough pieces to make good profit but doesn't kill the exclusivity/hype.
Rolex have really tasted the hype now and though at it's peak it was counterproductive they know that a certain amount is necessary for a luxury product.

[Calatrava r]

What is normal. What happened a decade ago may have seemed crazy at the time.

[4reRlxGuy]

Originally Posted by Halifax Daytona UK

WTF , you’ve spent $175k on other stuff you don’t really want , should have gone grey

Most of $175k was PM sports models (subs and a daytona). A Starbuck and SS Wimbledon in the mix.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by SamArj

No hype from me but I'm not sure Rolex want that to happen.
There is a balance point where a luxury manufacturer sells enough pieces to make good profit but doesn't kill the exclusivity/hype.
Rolex have really tasted the hype now and though at it's peak it was counterproductive they know that a certain amount is necessary for a luxury product.

This

Post Covid the ENTIRE luxury segment has changed. Not just watches.

[4reRlxGuy]

It is what it is - "hobbies" are expensive be it luxury watches, exotic cars, champion Koi, ...

[Goldmansockz]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It’s a matter of if you actually want to own a SS Daytona or not. Maybe you can play the waiting game for a black Sub but the SS Daytona is the top of the mountain in the Rolex game. Obviously no one wants to pay up for a hot model and talk is cheap so only voting with our wallets separates the bench warmers from the players.

I was gifted a Daytona and sold it, (albeit two-tone) and realized it's not my cup of tea. Only watches I'm after are a 36 OP Silver and Batgirl and then I can die a happy man...

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by eugenetsang

LOL tricked me thinking DSW was selling this for $8k. Went on his website and saw him selling it for $23k+

Probably couldn’t get your Visa card out fast enough as you opened David’s site.

This hobby is a sickness that always has you looking regardless if need another watch or not.

Here is another lost art of the incoming we don’t get to do from days not so long ago:

[Wingman244]

According to the US gov inflation calculator that $8900 is worth about 12,000 today. I don’t believe the government. I think it’s probably closer to 14 grand so current prices are not so bad based on all the additional crazy demand.

[Roddypeepa]

Originally Posted by Little machines

Agreed !Grey market (trusted sellers) not a bad option . I would always visit an AD ,you never know the connection you will acquire . Just way out the amount of money you would spend and the premium within the grey market! Good luck!

A buddy of mine got a Batman from an AD in Bath, England 18 mo ago as a first purchase for his 50th. He was keen to show his collection, prove he wasn’t a flipper etc. but it was about 9-11 months wait at a higher demand point than we see now. So can be done. YMMV.


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[seezur]

I’ve been waiting nearly a year and have yet to receive anything (though unrelated, I did buy a two tone santos a few days ago, so excited for that).

It’s very frustrating, and I know some people say the market won’t return to normal, but it will. When the new factory opens in 2029, and with the social media hype going away, it will get back to normal. Rolex is losing a lot of money by not having any inventory and I’m sure they are looking to remedy that.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by seezur

I’ve been waiting nearly a year and have yet to receive anything (though unrelated, I did buy a two tone santos a few days ago, so excited for that).

It’s very frustrating, and I know some people say the market won’t return to normal, but it will. When the new factory opens in 2029, and with the social media hype going away, it will get back to normal. Rolex is losing a lot of money by not having any inventory and I’m sure they are looking to remedy that.

‘Social media hype going away’

When I see people post this, I kind of chuckle. You think we’re going back to radio advertisements and black and white tv? SM is here to stay, for free advertising, flaunting purchases, everything. That aspect of life has changed for good for the foreseeable future until the next advertising platform arrives (AI? A type of personal hologram in house catered to your thoughts/search? Who knows).

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by dmash

‘Social media hype going away’

When I see people post this, I kind of chuckle. You think we’re going back to radio advertisements and black and white tv? SM is here to stay, for free advertising, flaunting purchases, everything. That aspect of life has changed for good for the foreseeable future until the next advertising platform arrives (AI? A type of personal hologram in house catered to your thoughts/search? Who knows).

SM existed in 2015 when BLNRs and LVs were collecting dust in an AD case. Hype as it’s related to watches is over. It’s just smoke and mirrors now. ADs trying to squeeze any monetary gain they can from the scarcity perception and Used Watch dealers trying to not go out of business from buying inventory too high.


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[codecow]

Someone on the Patek forum here just got a 5712 as their second watch after a 5205. That’s pretty 2014.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

SM existed in 2015 when BLNRs and LVs were collecting dust in an AD case. Hype as it’s related to watches is over. It’s just smoke and mirrors now. ADs trying to squeeze any monetary gain they can from the scarcity perception and Used Watch dealers trying to not go out of business from buying inventory too high.


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SM in 2015 is laughable compared to 2024. I say this as my wife has millions of followers and makes her living as an ‘influencer’. The entire landscape has wildly changed. I don’t say that as some humble brag, it’s to reiterate I have direct experience with this and it’s not my opinion, it’s statistically just a fact.

For example, in 2015 IG has 315 million users, predominantly in the USA. Now there’s over 2 billion, a ~7 fold increase AND spanning worldwide. And it’s still getting pumped up in other developing countries. AND this is just one platform, also have TikTok, YouTube, etc.

Again, I just chuckle at guys stating SM influence on watches is ‘over’ or SM is dying down. Not even close, sorry. Sure some hype has wore down, but there’s MILLIONS of new people who are ‘into’ watches and new money still growing every day.

Also, smoke and mirrors may be the case on some stuff, but a GMT? A Daytona? A RO? A Nautilus? An aquanaut? how is that smoke and mirrors when somebody can buy that piece, immediately contact a grey dealer and get cashed out for thousands same day. That’s not smoke and mirrors, that’s factually the current market.

[Goldmansockz]

Originally Posted by Roddypeepa

A buddy of mine got a Batman from an AD in Bath, England 18 mo ago as a first purchase for his 50th. He was keen to show his collection, prove he wasn’t a flipper etc. but it was about 9-11 months wait at a higher demand point than we see now. So can be done. YMMV.


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Wonder if it hurts that I’m in my late 20s…

[Zach69SS]

In my opinion it’s to hard to tell with 100% accuracy what will happen especially with all the AD games. Surely it will never go back to the co-vid craziness 2x, 3X, or even 4X on some models. Also as long as people are paying $30K for a Panda or $22K for Pepsi they will never go down.

So we will all have to wait and see, demand is everything and some markets are easier than others to get what you really want.

I think, some models will continue to get close to retail or below, some? will Not, Subs, GMT or the Daytona. Some dials and PM models will also continue a downwards trend.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by dmash

SM in 2015 is laughable compared to 2024. I say this as my wife has millions of followers and makes her living as an ‘influencer’. The entire landscape has wildly changed. I don’t say that as some humble brag

This is not even close to a humble brag so the clarification wasn’t warranted. Good luck


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

This is not even close to a humble brag so the clarification wasn’t warranted. Good luck


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Just clarifying as people try to throw out the ‘influencer’ moniker and try to make themselves to be something special. It’s obnoxious and my wife and I both can’t stand it

[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Here is another lost art of the incoming we don’t get to do from days not so long ago:

Funny you say that--on the Sub that I just bought from an AD, I asked them if I could be the one to remove the stickers. I told them otherwise, it's like giving someone a birthday gift already unwrapped! I had a lot of fun pulling them all off. They said that they will need to check it to make sure I got them all. Sure enough, I did!
Sadly, they threw them away (a nice souvenir for my inner hoarder), but I didn't ask to keep them either.