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16 January 2022, 09:25 AM | #61 |
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I don’t think if we have problems to pay our bills we want Rolex.
But like a TRF say I think this year we will not see but from next year that bills will affect many people and maybe the waiting list will reduce considerably. Also we need to not forget if price on grey market will come dawn maybe another % from buyers from the waiting list will disappear. Because let’s say the truth on that list are many buyers who want to earn some easy money. Of course this come down on price will not be from day to next day. Price will come back slowly like they are growing up. I don’t see this watches craziness keep more then one year from now but I’m not Nostradamus. We will see but for what I observed this days on many country the recession will come and many of us will be affected. Truly speaking let’s be honest and look back, a Daytona was selling in 2018-2019 with few thousand more then MRSP, same with Patek or AP. And now on grey market they ask double or triple MRSP price. I think it’s too much. Also I read some articles where they talk about Organized Crime who use watches to clean money. If financial control will start to verify watch market we don’t know what they will found. Speaking one day with a friend who are watches lover too and he have a theory who I fiund interesting. His words are”how can a drugs seller to pass the border with a million? They cannot do it. But with a Richard Mille or a Patek on hands and other watch on baggage it’s very easy”. Just my opinion… |
16 January 2022, 09:38 AM | #62 | |
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Geez. Sounds like you are screwed, however, good news is that your local Rolex AD will have plenty of watches for you to purchase so you can tell the time while the island goes to hell-in a-hand basket. |
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16 January 2022, 09:43 AM | #63 |
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You guys pay $22k a year in energy?
What kind of house you live in there and what kind of rubbish system is the UK running? That is unsustainable amount of money to pay for power. Imagine all the ppl on average or below average incomes. UK government need to fix that ASAP> I'm currently in a massive house, 4 ppl and use aircon and heating all the time. Max will be about $7k at per MAX. |
16 January 2022, 10:06 AM | #64 | |
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16 January 2022, 10:13 AM | #65 | |
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It's understandable that some who desperately want a grail Rolex and can't get one might think this practice is rife. I don't think any of us can get our heads around just how high demand actually is. |
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16 January 2022, 10:25 AM | #66 |
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16 January 2022, 10:31 AM | #67 |
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rising energy prices will dent disposable income but will only effect those on the margins of this game
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16 January 2022, 10:32 AM | #68 |
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Thank you. I should have searched. In Wikipedia this caught my eye....
"This would indicate that the smallest traditional two-oven gas AGA providing simple cooking functions (i.e. no water heating or central heating) consumes thirty-eight times as much as a standard gas oven and hob, almost as much gas in a week as a standard gas oven and hob in nine months." They are probably outlawed in the US. |
16 January 2022, 10:36 AM | #69 | |
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It looks cool and has an eon of high status but is about as energy efficient as a V16 Cadillac from the 30's compared with a Toyota Prius of today You do not cook on an AGA nor do you own one unless you have money. If you attempt to heat your home with it today youre a purist to the core and have more money then you know what to do with. This whole thread is a troll-thread but it takes someone familiar with what OP is talking about to understand it from the getgo. |
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16 January 2022, 02:44 PM | #70 |
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I’m not sure why so many think the recent MSRP rises and inflation overall has no effect at all on Rolex demand.
Sure a lot of Rolex buyers / wannabe buyers have absolutely no problem absorbing these price rises, but this is a very broad group that comprises a segment that would absolutely find these price rises problematic enough to put them off a Rolex purchase. Whether the impact is large enough to actually move the needle in terms of AD demand, or grey prices is uncertain, but what this definitely does is chip away at the willingness and ability to purchase a Rolex for some people. And before anyone comes up with teh tired verblen goods line, absolutely nobody has become more interested in buying a sub simply because it now costs 10% more. The desirability of verblen good is not just about price, or every verblen good producer would simply increase prices to the moon. As someone has said, there’s definitely more people now who will get the call, and decide to pass. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
16 January 2022, 04:58 PM | #71 | |
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Someone who can get the house really hot, but it's not a problem as they don't sweat. And have an AGA instead of a Pizza oven, meaning trips out to have pizza? |
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16 January 2022, 04:59 PM | #72 |
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I was just about to ask the same question
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16 January 2022, 05:19 PM | #73 |
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16 January 2022, 06:35 PM | #74 | |
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Whilst this will be the case for some, I still personally think that the “average” buyer is more likely from the middle classes with bills to pay, mortgaged houses, and financed cars. I’ve got nothing to back that up with, but we’re not talking Patek complications here. I’m the £5-8k range Rolex is the king of the hill and is still aspirational / somewhat affordable luxury. |
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16 January 2022, 07:44 PM | #75 | |
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Yes, it's an 8 bed house, in Kent not London - that's the countryside. I just say London sometimes as it's the closest big place that is globally known. It is a large early 1900s house. Not badly insulated but over 5000 sq ft, so a big space to heat. I would say it's fairly typical round here where there are a lot of large houses. This house in London would be maybe 10-20 times the price. We were on a fixed rate energy deal paying £5k a year - the QUOTE for a new fixed rate is £16k. But we won't do that as we can go variable for less - say £7.5k a year rising to £10k per year in April (due to UK price cap). A lot of the bill is due to an inefficient gas AGA that we liike, but we should probably get rid of for the good of the planet. We did't put it in, it was here when we bought the house. A decent new cooker with installatoin etc. would be around £7K here. We can't put in some cheap crappy one as it would devalue the house and getting the AGA out will be expensive. I hope that explains the energy bills. My POINT was that I was shocked at how much energy had increased whilst I was on a fixed rate .... which I understand is likely to push inflation to 7% in the UK. I never said I cannot afford it. I was simply thinking .. hmmm .. this might be a tipping point for some waiting for a Rolex in the UK. To correct the errors - someone on this thread took what I said was a two year increase of £22K (if we took the new fixed deal) and mistakenly said that as 1 year's bill, which is incorrect. Yes we have two elelectic cars, there're pretty damn awesome and I thoroughly recommmend them - we don't have solar so yes they charge from the UK grid. As I say, without being a d^ck about it, I can perfectly afford the the energy bill, I never said I couldn't. It won't in any way impact on my ability to purcahse a Rolex. It was more an observation about the UK and what is around the corner, i.e. some big cost increases. Supposedly 50% of the UK won't be able to afford the energy price increases coming in April. But those 50% are clearly NOT the ones buying Rolexes. I do think there will be some middle earners however that will rethink that Rolex purchase though, what I don't know is how many are on the "waitlists". Hope that clarifies. |
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16 January 2022, 07:49 PM | #76 |
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Because someone has to buy the flipped watches. But of course they could just go abroad.
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16 January 2022, 07:54 PM | #77 | |
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Yes, many thanks for the tips, you're spot on re: the house heating and I was aware of a lot of what you said. I was also thinking of getting someone in to asses the house in total as there are so many options; heat pumps, condensing boilers, extra insulation etc. but to be clear we're going to just got variable rate as no fixed rate is below the energy cap. |
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16 January 2022, 08:08 PM | #78 |
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I'm not a troll, yes AGAs I do think are status symbols (somewhat ironic on a Rolex forum), but not one we bought, it came with the house. In retrospect I should have just skipped on all my personal circumstances as they are not typical; I was just trying to provide an example. That said, it is true that a lot of my friends and family are getting shocks with their new x3 energy bills so it IS a UK wide issue and it is a big one and I was just thinking out loud how will that affect Rolex demand (or maybe it won't).
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16 January 2022, 08:11 PM | #79 |
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16 January 2022, 08:38 PM | #80 |
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16 January 2022, 09:33 PM | #81 |
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I worked in the oil&gas industry for 30 years. Offshore worldwide. Energy has been a major influence in my life. 2016 I had an 'aha' moment as SSE put our per kWh unit up massively. Since then we has installed 9kW of PV and 14.4kWh of home battery storage. We also have an EV with another being delivered next month. For anyone who doesn't fancy ongoing long term price hikes, have a look at Ripple energy and WT2. I am in WT1 and it is going live 1st week March.
I like my Rolex(s) and could see there being more in the market as people pass on what they thought they could afford. |
16 January 2022, 09:47 PM | #82 |
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16 January 2022, 09:51 PM | #83 |
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16 January 2022, 09:59 PM | #84 |
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17 January 2022, 02:29 AM | #85 | |
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Still...youre in your 8br house thats over 5000sqft. Built 100yrs ago or so. Running your AGA and enjoying your electric cars. Nowhere you say youll move,downsize,sell a car or two and ride your bike or take public transportation. Nah. Beause you still can afford it,and whats another 750quid/month anyway when your brokerage account is quadrupeling that sum each month? Just like when petrol goes from one quid to a quid fifty. Oh the horror. Fill er up mate... And the few potential Rolex buyers that no longer cannot afford to buy one are replaced with five new guys that are making more money then ever before because of the above.... |
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17 January 2022, 03:19 AM | #86 |
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Plenty money in the world for the annual Rolex manufacture ,no matter what the electricity bill ...anywhere.
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17 January 2022, 04:33 AM | #87 |
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The margins are where a lot of the growth in demand has come from in the last few years. If these watches lost 20% of their MSRP when you walked out of the store, like in the good old days, those on the margin would be out of the game.
I had no idea that energy costs were that high in the UK. That’s literally 10x what I pay in the states. |
17 January 2022, 07:35 AM | #88 | |
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Got to compare apples to apples. But otherwise I agree with you. Who says no to free money? |
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17 January 2022, 11:56 AM | #89 |
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Clearly there are a lot of Americans who now think we lay £22k a year for energy, which is nonsense! My 5 bed modern detached is about £1,600 per year in gas and electricity.
OP - where are you getting these crazy numbers from? Even the kWHs you quote won’t cost that much, a 2 year fix for that MASSIVE useage is about £10k per year without looking hard, but why would you fix right now? As to the question - I don’t think it will impact demand too much, only a full blown recession will, and even then the sheer size of stimulus that has been pumped in has changed the rules. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
17 January 2022, 01:04 PM | #90 | |
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insulation insulation insulation ! you should consider this irrespective of current or proposed energy prices or before any changes. UK housing stock is generally poorly made and badly insulated. I would invest in a Flir IR app for your phone and wander around outside and see where your heat is escaping. or get a energy guy in to do a survey.. heatpumps are massively overhyped and generally under perform. even after insulation you're looking at 30k+ to install something big enough to cope with your energy demand. ROI is not achievable on most installations when whole life cost is factored in I'd at least remove the hot water side of the AGA by adding a gas boiler as that would reduce the gas bill by 50% minimum. you also alluded to the UK being somehow unique in its current position regarding energy . it's not. I'm in Spain and the government here has stepped in to try to cap rising prices as electric has more than doubled in the last 6 months. as regards your general point here in Tenerife during the crisis there were a lot of Rolexes in the AD window even the odd SS one. however since the return of the tourists we are now the same as every AD, empty shelves. but I do believe the world is in for a monetary shock and luxury goods could well be hit. interestingly Rolex is more of an asperational luxury good rather than a genuine high end luxury good and it's quite possible that's exactly the area likely to be hit hardest in an economic downturn or crash.. high end real luxury goods don't suffer quite so much as the rich ride out recessions easier... IMHO oh and I really do recommend moving out of the UK. I always intended to move to the sun as retirement approached and it's the best thing I ever did. |
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