Contrarian View

[NYG1121]

I am going to play devils advocate here. Could it be that the further unprecedented supply shock from Rolex actually further boosts their values?

All the recent threads go back to the examples from 3 years ago where these models were easier to get. I would argue Rolex has been tightening the supply ever since in setting of surging demand and this current crisis will further exacerbate the issue.

You can comment on how the prices are dropping and greys are hurting etc. Well you know what? EVERYTHING that is valuable is currently hurting (stocks, real estate..basically horrible time to sell anything). And if you must, you will lose big in any of those markets. Rolex is no different.

And before you all start flaming me... I have no horse in the race. Everything I have ever bought has been at MSRP through my AD.

Anyone agree with me?

[Yess]

If you mean stock won't be available and therefore supply/sales ratio will stay as it is now, I would say this seems likely to me (at ADs!). If Rolex can't ship stock, supply is limited. Even if there are a number of potential buyers dropping out of the MSRP AD market, there are still plenty who aren't.

Low supply will be off-set by any reduction in available purchasers. If I had to bet, purchasers will easily outstrip supply well into the foreseeable future.

I also don't think the grey market will be the feast many predict. They don't have supply coming in either - so once their stock is gone, even at a lower price point than historically, there won't be anything to buy. Pushing prices back up.

[NYG1121]

Right I mean supply/demand imbalance continuing to drive up values.

Lots of portfolios are down right now but so far they are making a faster comeback than I anticipated.

Yes there will be lots of people hurt by the downturn in economy, particularly small business. I am not sure whether that affects Rolex demand though.

[AF_Rob]

Originally Posted by Yess

Low supply will be off-set by any reduction in available purchasers. If I had to bet, purchasers will easily outstrip supply well into the foreseeable future.

Agree. Especially since this "demand" was self induced, or at least self sustained by Rolex. My opinion, of course.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Yes there will be lots of people hurt by the downturn in economy, particularly small business. I am not sure whether that affects Rolex demand though.

I think if Rolex stock was flooding the market there may be a more perceivable impact. But stock wasn't flooding my ADs to begin with, 2 year wait on a Sub 114060 without purchase history etc. It takes a lot of people to drop out of the market, and a lot of stock incoming, to clear that kind of demand even in the current climate.

[faimag]

I think there will be decrease in both supply and demand, so we may not see much decrease in terms of market prices. Some correction, yes, but don't expect to get Daytonas and BLROs etc with a discount!

[Yess]

Originally Posted by faimag

I think there will be decrease in both supply and demand, so we may not see much decrease in terms of market prices. Some correction, yes, but don't expect to get Daytonas and BLROs etc with a discount!

We are in agreement, but I guess I take a more stronger stance; don't expect to see a BLRO in an AD sales case anytime soon - let alone try and get a discount on it.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

I am going to play devils advocate here. Could it be that the further unprecedented supply shock from Rolex actually further boosts their values?

All the recent threads go back to the examples from 3 years ago where these models were easier to get. I would argue Rolex has been tightening the supply ever since in setting of surging demand and this current crisis will further exacerbate the issue.

You can comment on how the prices are dropping and greys are hurting etc. Well you know what? EVERYTHING that is valuable is currently hurting (stocks, real estate..basically horrible time to sell anything). And if you must, you will lose big in any of those markets. Rolex is no different.

And before you all start flaming me... I have no horse in the race. Everything I have ever bought has been at MSRP through my AD.

Anyone agree with me?

Not my view. Any recession, regardless of how severe in depth or duration, will have a negative effect on asset prices, especially on luxury goods. It is both demand induced (less income and wealth effect) plus supply induced with higher supply as financial distress causes asset liquidation.

Rolex likely is paying their workers during the shutdown, so they should not have a reason to constrain supply. We went through this in 2008+ and economic playbooks tend to repeat.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by Michael T

Rolex likely is paying their workers during the shutdown, so they should not have a reason to constrain supply. We went through this in 2008+ and economic playbooks tend to repeat.

Except for the fact that the factory is shut - and while I would agree they would have stock at the factory - it seems they can't even ship this at present. So they can't ship what stock they have, nor can they manufacture more stock. People are still buying Rolex the world over while the factory is shut - just take a look at the pages here on the forum and we are but a tiny, minuscule, fraction of those buying Rolex.

[Hollie_Rollie]

You would need hype and demand. I think those have both seen their heyday for the time being. Buyers market. As another member pointed out, I lose absolutely nothing waiting to buy at this point

[Yess]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

You would need hype and demand. I think those have both seen their heyday for the time being. Buyers market. As another member pointed out, I lose absolutely nothing waiting to buy at this point

Are we talking about at an AD or Grey - because these two are too often conflated on this forum. I guess what I am saying, what are you going to lose buying a Hulk at MSRP from an AD right now - apart from the chance to buy it again?

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Yess

Are we talking about at an AD or Grey - because these two are too often conflated on this forum. I guess what I am saying, what are you going to lose buying a Hulk at MSRP from an AD right now - apart from the chance to buy it again?

100% grey market. Minor softening at an AD. Heck, I was reading a post today about the possibility of Rolex selling directly to consumer online. ADs may be a thing of the past. I’d love to order online and have it shipped to my doorstep or to the nearest Rolex boutique

Edit- I agree you lose absolutely nothing buying at msrp from an AD

[Theoffice]

I’ll take multiple Pepsi’s , which will never happen, all will stay the same