Waitlists - For what its worth

[EdenPark2021]

It's my understanding that Crypto has rocked the watch market. It's created more "millionaires" than ever before resulting in desire to purchase more high end products. The US is the only country that accepts Crypto as a currency to purchase such goods, which has consolidated a global wealth spike to a singular market (should they chose to pay with Crypto).

At the same time, this wealth has created an avenue for those wealthy enough to purchase the most exotic Rolex watches from their AD to have access to the more common watches. In other words, sell 4-5 Bit Coins and buy a Platinum Daytona... then the AD reaches back out with more common pieces since you have a high spend.

So its likely that most of us "average Joes willing to spend $10K on a watch" will continue to wait while the market is gobbled by global big spenders. Like most, I'm not in favor of paying grey market prices but if you weigh tax and time, its currently nearly negligible. $14K for a 126660 with a potential 2 year wait (nearly $16K with tax), or $19K to get it today makes it the inflated cost slightly more palatable.

Just my .02. Good luck to the community who keeps pushing. I'm on wait lists, but it seems like they're deeper than ever and without constant follow up, you'll be forgotten.

[dpt.calvin]

A bit late...but welcome to the party.

[skatamail]

Its not just crypto.. its soaring home values, soaring stock prices (till recently).
And its not just premium watch brands (because you could get any not exclusive brand tomorrow at "retail" if you wanted), but also anything premium. Go look at MSRP prices for 911s for example, and prices at dealers.

[ProCoach]

Originally Posted by skatamail

Its not just crypto.. its soaring home values, soaring stock prices (till recently).
And its not just premium watch brands (because you could get any not exclusive brand tomorrow at "retail" if you wanted), but also anything premium. Go look at MSRP prices for 911s for example, and prices at dealers.

^^This^^

My business is completely discretionary. Always has been. Bought a Daytona last year, never been better.

[georgekart]

The money has been printed and handed out. It goes somewhere. Lower supply, higher demand, sky high prices. Simple as that. As others stated, look at cars as well. The only difference I see in the watch market is the fact not the whole market went up. Whereas with cars everything did. Normal cars went up as well, not just enthusiast cars. Whereas in watches, seems like it is only Rolex, AP, PP, RM and the like, the hyped pieces. Doesn't look like JLC went up for instance. But I guess that is a matter of time too.

[thenewrick]

CARES Act = waitlists

JK but it's mostly true. Instead of food stamps the new welfare is 1% getting windfalls of bonus cash

It's mostly just style/trend/social media and China though. The watch business was booming even before the "stimulus". It just made it much worse in the USA

[Slow Lane]

Lots of other interesting watch brands out there - I love my Rolex watches, have had 3 and have a 114060 but honestly thinking about trading for something less noticeable and harvesting the gain. Worth considering even if you don't do it, this presents some interesting optionality. If you think this trend will go to infinity then good luck but at some point it gets too heavy and collapses.

I don't like that it has come to this, can't get a watch from an AD etc. But my sentimental attachment to anything is limited.

[Polar Bear]

There's also the point that a lot of upper middle class people who would normally eat out once or twice a week and go on a vacation once a year have been largely unable to do that for the last 2 years
Combine that with the fact that people are dying from an unforeseen pandemic and you have a mixture of spare money laying around a a YOLO mentality from the middle class

I mean, look at how many members we have here with single digit post counts who seem to show up to either ask how to get on a list, ask how long they have to wait on the list or moan about the list in general
Its almost like a lot of them woke up one morning and all decided they wanted a rolex and could suddenly pay for it

[EdenPark2021]

All very accurate insight, thank you for that.

It’s such a wild time. With the mass amounts of unemployed, it seems like disposable income would be down. While 1%’s continue to grow their wealth, are they really concerned making $3-7k on a submariner? Who’s buying, the YOLO’s?

I appreciate the discussion, super interesting to me. To date I’ve been able to secure a sub and JC (both grey) after waiting over a year on lists for both.

I’d love to just experience the AD sale. Ha.

[TunaTuna]

I think there are only a small group of crypto millionaires who got in with big positions early. I can almost guarantee you that most crypto holders bought at 60k and are losing their shirts.

(yea yea yea I know YOU made some money, but most have not)

[1665fan]

About 2 years late big dog…..

[RolexSimon]

Stay with Rolex and establish a relationship with your AD, pay grey prices or move to other brands. Most threads will conclude like this but enjoy your Rolexes like we all do :-)

[TheVision]

Just have patience. Take it for granted that u'll be looking at possible 4 months- 12 months wait for popular pieces so during the wait, go and enjoy other pieces whether it be a $50 GShock or a $500 Seiko diver.

When you get that call, you'll be thanking yourself ;).

I did this back in Sep and went on AD waitlist for 41mm DJ white dial or white dial ExpII and just enjoying my Garmin watch and seiko diver. No rush for me...

I stopped by AD last weekend (he had texted me to check out their new exhibition models) and he said he might hook me up before this summer .

[thenewrick]

Originally Posted by EdenPark2021

All very accurate insight, thank you for that.

It’s such a wild time. With the mass amounts of unemployed, it seems like disposable income would be down. While 1%’s continue to grow their wealth, are they really concerned making $3-7k on a submariner? Who’s buying, the YOLO’s?

I appreciate the discussion, super interesting to me. To date I’ve been able to secure a sub and JC (both grey) after waiting over a year on lists for both.

I’d love to just experience the AD sale. Ha.

Unemployment is historically low and the economy is absolutely exploding. Cost of living has gone up some but most folks are doing fantastic in the past year. Part of the reason Rolex is in such high demand in the USA is because the economy is so strong. Who knows what the future holds

[CarlOver]

Let’s not forget that Bitcoin dropped 48.8% in about 10 weeks. Some people made money as we all do with our investments when looking at the proper time period. Huge money was lost though. Matters how you look at it.

[TheVision]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Unemployment is historically low and the economy is absolutely exploding. Cost of living has gone up some but most folks are doing fantastic in the past year. Part of the reason Rolex is in such high demand in the USA is because the economy is so strong. Who knows what the future holds

Can relate. I work in healthcare and I raked in some major OT during pandemic. We had shortage of staff and equipment routinely so 60-70 hour workweeks became the norm. My hospital also revealed 2021 profits and its a all time high over last 3 years due to state funding and other county grants.

I was never intesrted in buying a Rolex 2 years ago but the craploads of overtime and bonuses from work gave me the "disposable" income I was looking for. I'm already invested in 401k and pension from my job so thought of making a Rolex a reality is finally here :)

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by dpt.calvin

A bit late...but welcome to the party.

This