When will the market settle?

[blargle]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.

at this point i no longer feel comfortable wearing a watch that is 3-4 times retail. started selling down my collection quite some time ago and going for something more discrete

[blargle]

Originally Posted by David007Kim

Never,…it will NEVER settle. Rolex has been planning and planning to be very strategic about their Brand for years! They are becoming like the “Holy 3”, also ever since the evolution of Ceramic Bezels they’ve been “in demand”! Nowadays with young wealth and Instagram, the world of watches has changed. If your lucky enough to “afford one”,…not only get one from an AD,…your lucky! The term “afford”,…buy what you want and “whenever” you want and from who ever you want is the REAL FLEX!!! Rolex has always been about STATUS. Things have changed and you should accept it. Being able to wear and own a HOT MODEL is the REAL FLEX. Looking to buy one at retail,…AD’s are no longer designed to sell you one unless you have spent $100k plus. Most Professional Models will be well above $50k ina matter of years as distributions and allocations are at a standstill. Steel Daytona’s are now a part of history after what Paul Newman’s watch sold for at auction a few years back. Instagram and YouTube along with Young Wealth is now and the future. You will NEVER be able to get the HOT MODELS unless you spend over $100K, so go GREY to acquire what you want. I know many people that work at AD’s and it’ll NEVER HAPPEN for the average person. Only HEAVY HITTERS and Celebrities will get the “old AD Service”!,…go GREY because “yesterday’s prices are NOT today’s prices and it will NEVER be!!!

why are such obvious shills/grey sellers allowed to post this propaganda unchecked?

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by David007Kim

Never,…it will NEVER settle. Rolex has been planning and planning to be very strategic about their Brand for years! They are becoming like the “Holy 3”, also ever since the evolution of Ceramic Bezels they’ve been “in demand”! Nowadays with young wealth and Instagram, the world of watches has changed. If your lucky enough to “afford one”,…not only get one from an AD,…your lucky! The term “afford”,…buy what you want and “whenever” you want and from who ever you want is the REAL FLEX!!! Rolex has always been about STATUS. Things have changed and you should accept it. Being able to wear and own a HOT MODEL is the REAL FLEX. Looking to buy one at retail,…AD’s are no longer designed to sell you one unless you have spent $100k plus. Most Professional Models will be well above $50k ina matter of years as distributions and allocations are at a standstill. Steel Daytona’s are now a part of history after what Paul Newman’s watch sold for at auction a few years back. Instagram and YouTube along with Young Wealth is now and the future. You will NEVER be able to get the HOT MODELS unless you spend over $100K, so go GREY to acquire what you want. I know many people that work at AD’s and it’ll NEVER HAPPEN for the average person. Only HEAVY HITTERS and Celebrities will get the “old AD Service”!,…go GREY because “yesterday’s prices are NOT today’s prices and it will NEVER be!!!

Unfortunately or fortunately this will be the start of it.

Lay low bro if that’s take.

[TswaneNguni]

I think the steep incline in the curve may have been reached,from now on a very flatter trajectory in increase in market value .

I dont see it coming down .

[alphadweller]

It's here to stay as long as investors keep pouring money into watches.

[georgekart]

Nobody can predict that, Maybe over the course of the year MSRP will become 2x current MSRP (unlikely) and the market will settle. Maybe there will be a huge economical crisis and the market will settle. Maybe neither happens for a long time and market doesn't settle. If I could predict when and how the market would settle, I'd make a lot of money off that.

[Aztro]

IMO almost all the pure hype buyers only care about current or very recent (and not replaced, like Hulk) watches. My guess is references that have been discontinued but replaced with objectively better watches (particularly movements) will soften quite a bit. We are probably in a weird phase where being discontinued isn’t always upwards pressure.

But take the caveat that the above is probably all wrong. I’ve repeatedly assumed the market could bear no more, and it’s probably doubled since then!

[travisb]

No one knows but I see no end in sight. Prices rising daily as long as people are willing to pay.

[thenewrick]

I think my point can be made more simply. It agrees with almost all the other posters.

Rolex is currently a flex. The flex is that you have the newest and best. When a reference is no longer a flex due to it being the old one that people have seen for years, it will crash in value.

Too many people are just looking at prices and not understanding why the prices are high. Kim explained it correctly but incorrectly predicted that the 2015-2021 references would be a forever flex.

In 2024 when the GMT Sprite and Daytona red bezel Blood are the flex it will be corny to show off a 2016 Pepsi or White dial Daytona.

It isn’t any more complex than that. No need to look at economics or china really.

Nobody is flexing Tridor daydates and Serti dial subs and 5 digit references. They’re just rising slowly due to rising tide mechanics and inflation. That’s where most of the 2015-2021 references will be in 10 years.

Trends and flex are finicky things. Young people who haven’t lived through trends and ups and downs only see the past 2-3 years as what will always be.

A good example was a youtuber who was showing a graph on how prices will never go down and how many new customers there were and his graph went back 3 or 5 years or something. That’s just how people think now.

Wise folks know there’s more to this hobby than the 2015 era introductions of ceramic bezels.

But there will always be the folks who bought the $50k pair of bell bottoms or JNCO and adamantly argue that they will be in style forever and a great investment.

Time will time!

[edisonstar23]

Thank you all for the responses. I think the overall sentiment by most is that this will never end or at least not for a very long time.

On that note, I better start looking for another hobby- Instagram influencers and “watch investors” have ruined a nice hobby we all grew to love and appreciate. It’s no longer about the movements, the horology of the time piece, dials, proportions, etc. Now it like a pair of Kanye West shoes “ Yeezys”.

I’m sure there will be a segment of people who will still collect but at a lower pace due to availability and cost. But my impressions is that this Hobby will loose it’s appeal if it continues- and will be nothing more than a status symbol. No better than a Hermes bag-


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[brandrea]

Personally, I think a comparison can be drawn with Rolex owners and today’s Carbartt wearers

If PaulG sees this, please fix the link so the picture thingy shows, (thank you).

https://youtu.be/dRKToAInW2w

[watchwatcher]

Who says it's not fun anymore?

[thenewrick]

When I was a little kid I was into X-men trading cards. I’d get a pack or two on the weekends and hope to get some new cards for my collection and maybe a bonus rare card that was shiny or hologram. I would trade with kids at school and kept a Wizard magazine to reference prices and what constituted a fair trade. It was a lot of fun and my friends all had fun trading and looking at each other’s collections. We’d enjoy putting them in folders with stickers on them and enjoyed taking them in and out and the feeling of putting a new card into an empty slot in the collection.

Then there was the kid who’s dad bought him a complete set with all the bonus cards already in a folder all sleeved up. He’d come show everyone. We’d all go wow that must have been expensive. Then we quickly went back to our usual trading and pretty much ignored the rich kid because he had nothing to trade and had no interest in the hobby. He was just buying it to look cool and fit in. When it didn’t work he went onto the next thing.

I still have all my cards buried away somewhere and might look at them a bit when I move every 5-10 years sort of thing. Fond memories.

Maybe an allegory for this current hobby of watches. Saw it with cars. Saw it with computers. Don’t let the rich kid flex diminish the fun. They’re always temporary.

Enjoy the watches you have. Branch out to other brands and vintage. There’s always affordable alternatives. You don’t need the new hologram bonus card from the 2021 set to enjoy the hobby. It never mattered to me.

I’ve said it before, but I think people need to have a come to Jesus moment with themself and ask why they are only interested in maybe 5 watches out of thousands of references.

If you can’t get a hype watch and only want a hype watch. You’re gonna be hurtin for certain. But you’re probably not really a watch enthusiast you’re just a trend enthusiast.

[khalifam]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

My theory is all the new collectors will see the new references come out. Realize that with the new Pepsi, new Daytona, new whatever that this hobby is a marathon and not a sprint. They will realize there is always a new and better thing and that their obsession over 2015-2021 references was silly and how much effort they spent sprinting towards these references that are going to be old news tomorrow. That’s when all the new sprint hype folks are going to calm way the hell down.

Then we’ll see people trying to unload their 2015-2021 references and prices will plummet and things will return to normal.

All new references will always be popular to some extent. But as soon as that new Daytona with the new movement case and bracelet drops.. yea the old ones are gonna go down

Unsure about this - like when the 126710 BLRO was introduced the 16710 saw a massive uprise and prices went from £4,000 to £12,000 in the space of two years.

Similarly, old Daytona went up massively with the introduction of the new one.

The new Cermit allowed the old Kermit to boost it's way into the market too ...

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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.

Then look at brands and watches that are worth what you want to pay. I have bought more watches this year than in many years past

[paxjedi]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I know many of your are probably going to be again another thread about valuation, market predictions, etc. However, will watches like the Daytona will really hit 100k and stay there for few years?

And the hulk which is now hitting 30k will it reach $50k or higher and sustain it?

I mean come on guys- is this our new reality and our hobby will no longer be sustainable or even fun? At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.

Please chime in?

OMG, another thread about valuation, market predictions, etc.



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