How likely is a price retreat?

[Kyle3130]

Originally Posted by geoffreyis

Lol

Dude, you should tell your AD what you want and then patiently wait for the call like everyone else. Also, how is a Daytona “out of range” for you when it’s only $400USD more than the D-Blue DSSD?

[gerry100]

12 months from now we'll know the impact of interest rates.

When my cash was earning nothing last year, I was inspired to get the Rolex I've always wanted

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

I have been a Rolex owner for over twenty years and a student of all things Rolex for about six. For all of the time the universal truth has been to buy it now. If you wait the price will go up.

Interest rates have been trending down for 40 years, if you extrapolate only based on the past you conclude that interest rates always will trend down.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

Interest rates have been trending down for 40 years, if you extrapolate only based on the past you conclude that interest rates always will trend down.

I don't think increasing interest rates will have any effect whatsoever on this uber-luxury sector.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I don't think increasing interest rates will have any effect whatsoever on this uber-luxury sector.

It's more an illustration of the problems that come with pattern seeking -interest rate trajectories are not predicable up or down.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

It's more an illustration of the problems that come with pattern seeking -interest rate trajectories are not predicable up or down.

It doesn't matter, this market is impervious to interest rates. Buyers aren't borrowers.

[shockdoctrine]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

It doesn't matter, this market is impervious to interest rates. Buyers aren't borrowers.

oops

[DRS Enabled]

The Fed raised interest rates from 2016 until 2020. That was our last tightening cycle. What happened to Rolex prices during that period? They went in one direction.

[Gab27]

IMHO, the JC DSSD is very unlikely to see a decrease in price and it seems very possible that it could be discontinued in the near future. For that matter, and especially if it is discontinued, it could potentially see an increase in demand if the instastars pick it up. It's a very handsome watch, it is a technical marvel, and the story behind it is awesome. (If my wrist wasn't small, I would definitely want one.)

Secondary prices on it do not look to be terribly outrageous at the moment and so getting one from an AD may be more feasible than some other stainless models. FWIW, I think now seems like a reasonable time as any to get this watch if you want it. So go for it. You'll probably fall in love with it and ask yourself why you didn't get one sooner.

[underpar]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

If Rolex prices on the preowned market retreat to MSRP, that would mean the economy (global) got mollywhoped, and getting a Rolex will be the last thing on your mind.

Yes sir.

[enjoythemusic]

Price retreat???? As priced in ????

I think the problem is we need to remove central bank / IMF currencies from the pricing of items with intrinsic value. Perhaps a mix of metals, oil, selected food (rice, etc), and human effort. A 5% annual product price increase is a loss for the manufacturer if they base the price on a currency that devalues 10% annually.

Recently, Rolex did not raise their prices enough to compensate for the 10% loss of currency value. Uk food and energy prices have gone far higher, thus Rolex's UK pricing is very reasonable.

Before the Euro, I loved playing currency arbitrage and got Pateks at a nice ~45% discount :)

The Math: USD to German currency was an 8 to 12% 'discount'. Add in a nice 25% product discount from Frankfurt AD plus you get VAT back too.

[Boaters]

Easy to say only one-way street here and that is up...

[Jojomojo]

I think Rolex is going to increase MSRP in the coming months. LV, Hermes, Chanel has hiked retail prices. Also Hermes is now introducing a global quota for its bags. The last round of price hike for Rolex imo was nothing, an adjustment should b in the horizon.

[Neurogeek]

It is unlikely unless

1. most rolex collectors let go of their watches at 20% off the market price
2. Perhaps 1/4 of the world stop buying rolex.

just my 2c.

[amanbra]

Originally Posted by DRS Enabled

The Fed raised interest rates from 2016 until 2020. That was our last tightening cycle. What happened to Rolex prices during that period? They went in one direction.

Yep but what where the debt levels? How many asset bubbles where there from insane money printing?


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[geoffreyis]

Originally Posted by Jojomojo

I think Rolex is going to increase MSRP in the coming months. LV, Hermes, Chanel has hiked retail prices. Also Hermes is now introducing a global quota for its bags. The last round of price hike for Rolex imo was nothing, an adjustment should b in the horizon.

They just increased prices Jan 1.

[TexEd]

The prices arent' going down and interest rates having nothing to do with the gray market pricing of Rolex's. The watches will continue to appreciate.

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by m j b

Rolex prices were going up before the pandemic, but the past two years have just been nutty.

So yes, prices will drop, eventually, from these stratospheric levels.

Remember, you read it here first.

Wishful thinking ... I hope ...

[ChiefTingle]

I'm going to an AD to see if they will even look at me much less put me on a waitlist.

[Onikage]

Interest rates might alter a few priorities. A lot of people shouldn't have bought stuff in the first place. Lets be honest.

[steveclr]

Originally Posted by H25B

I thought the pandemic would bring things down.

Um yeah, that didn't happen.

Me too. I got a D in Econ 101, my only D in college.