Rolex Vintage prices and demand

[RFC]

Am I wrong to think that Rolex vintage pricing has been resilient or immune to the downward market correction of 10% or more observed in the secondary market for many newer Rolex SS sports models?

For instance, matte and maxi dial 5513’s in good to excellent condition polished w/o full set are still selling like hot cakes and at prices in the range of $15-17k. Those prices do not seem to be coming down.

The answer could be as simple as that there’s less Rolex vintage floating around for sale and more people like me want them. But it’s odd because many others prefer six digit Subs and GMT’s and even with a strong demand those pieces have declined in price. It may just be that these newer over-hyped pieces were priced too high so there’s a greater correction.

[TuRo]

Funnily enough I'm running research on 20,000 used watches of various databases incl C24 (thanks Tim) and Mondani (thanks Georgia/Mo) amongst others and that observation holds up - so far - The early signs is the cut-off for that 5-20% decline is late 5 digits and of course in the main contemporary hyped 6 digits!

So say a 16760 continues to climb but a early 2000s 16710 has been hit a bit as has the later ceramic green hand slightly more. Same age related outcome on Subs, Explorers, Sea Dwellers etc etc.

It is Supply and Demand.... plus the later pieces were I suspect very often 'substitution purchases' for newbies unable to get new 6 digit ceramics.... and they in this downturn are abandoning the 'overs market' a bit now, whereas wizzened old collectors are in it for the long-haul.

[ExplorerI]

If anything the nicest examples of vintage seem to still be climbing. We are starting to see some of the 16710 and 16610 come off a bit. 16610s in the 7s again which nice to see.

[TuRo]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

If anything the nicest examples of vintage seem to still be climbing. We are starting to see some of the 16710 and 16610 come off a bit. 16610s in the 7s again which nice to see.

Yes agree - 5513/5512/1655/1675/1665 etc etc have climbed in August 0.7% alone.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by pauldavidthorpe

Funnily enough I'm running research on 20,000 used watches of various databases incl C24 (thanks Tim) and Mondani (thanks Georgia/Mo) amongst others and that observation holds up - so far - The early signs is the cut-off for that 5-20% decline is late 5 digits and of course in the main contemporary hyped 6 digits!

How are you calculating the prices? I assume just asking prices, correct, not final prices?

[TuRo]

Sold prices on 4 big aggregator sites, plus only non-negotiable listings sales (about 32% of C24 listings are thus) on C24. Plus 27 major retailers incl Watchmaster and Watchfinder and other major large European, Asian and American sites. I'm going to be asking big retailers eg Paul Altieri (Bob's) and other USA large sites and eg Rakuten (Japan) etc if they will contribute too. It's a mammoth database job but luckily I have IT expertise to help. Some Auction results but not worththe effort as the levels of confidence too low due to small numbers
of sales. Tbh not about absolute values but relative trends and swings. Ps 6263 and 6265 (which I know you have) been in doldrums for yonks alongside the DRSD - Suspect both are undervalued now and will shoot up soon (not that value is of interest I know - I'm only interested as accad' research and big number of corporate investors are plowing money into the vintage market last 3 years big stylee I have unearthed) Rgds Paul

[RFC]

Paul’s statement that big investors have been hoarding vintage over the last few years would explain in part the restricted supply to ordinary buyers and higher prices. What I’ve always wondered is who or what is the source that could have that volume to supply to dealers/investors? Auctions?

[swish77]

Originally Posted by pauldavidthorpe

Sold prices on 4 big aggregator sites, plus only non-negotiable listings sales (about 32% of C24 listings are thus) on C24. Plus 27 major retailers incl Watchmaster and Watchfinder and other major large European, Asian and American sites. I'm going to be asking big retailers eg Paul Altieri (Bob's) and other USA large sites and eg Rakuten (Japan) etc if they will contribute too. It's a mammoth database job but luckily I have IT expertise to help. Some Auction results but not worththe effort as the levels of confidence too low due to small numbers
of sales. Tbh not about absolute values but relative trends and swings. Ps 6263 and 6265 (which I know you have) been in doldrums for yonks alongside the DRSD - Suspect both are undervalued now and will shoot up soon (not that value is of interest I know - I'm only interested as accad' research and big number of corporate investors are plowing money into the vintage market last 3 years big stylee I have unearthed) Rgds Paul

Wow, sounds like a big undertaking! Will be very curious to see the results, assuming they will be available online.

[mountainjogger]

My impression is that for the most part, 4 digit are more immune than 5 digit.

[L.K Johnson]

My portfolio that consists mainly of vintage pieces has risen by 7% over the last couple of months…(tracking it by the tracker on C24, might not be the most reliable source but anyway)

[MrChamfers]

I’ve seen sold prices for 1675 and 5513 dropping quite a bit over the past year. A couple thousand less now, give or take.

This is on c24 and eBay though, not where collectors do their buying.

[springer]

Vintage Rolex models are doing just fine. They might have corrected downward by 5% or 10% but nice examples still move fairly well and have held up very nice. The higher end vintage models have corrected more - such as the high dollar pieces like Daytonas, DRSDs and a few other pieces.

[Tools]

Originally Posted by RFC

Am I wrong to think that Rolex vintage pricing has been resilient or immune to the downward market correction of 10% or more observed in the secondary market for many newer Rolex SS sports models?

. . .

Vintage luxury collectibles have their own "market".

They are not caught up in the frenzy of FOMO and readily flipped new production models.

[Incroyable12]

I've seen a number of vintage Rolex references go down in price and sit unsold.

For example the WG Barked DD 18079 was selling for $40k plus but I've seen some that appear for $30k that haven't sold.

[RFC]

Originally Posted by Tools

Vintage luxury collectibles have their own "market".

They are not caught up in the frenzy of FOMO and readily flipped new production models.

Spot on. I’d say there are separate sub-markets for Rolex vintage, the collectibles, that are almost price inelastic.

[indianmachine]

I believe zenith daytonas steel and gold are down quite a bit too.

[INC]

Let me add my thought to this.

The US market is huge and it's prices are more or less dominate world market. So if the EUR/USD exchange rate changes from ~1.2 to 1, this in itself means a huge price increase for the rest of the world in their own currencies. Accordingly, for example, a 10% USD-denominated price reduction still means a huge price increase in EUR.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Tools

Vintage luxury collectibles have their own "market".

They are not caught up in the frenzy of FOMO and readily flipped new production models.

[MILGAUSS88]

I think the difference is due more to dealer inventory.
I think 2010 to 2016, the vintage market was red hot.
But dealers would have a hard time scaling with vintage inventory.
And I think that was half the reason modern Rolex took off. It was so much easier to scale.

Based on my knowledge of the antique/collectables market, in a healthy market 30% of your sales will go to other dealers.
In a hot market, 50% of your sales will got to other dealers.
In a poor market, typically 10% of your sales are to another dealer.

And in this current market that resembles a game of hot potato, there are a lot of dealers with large inventories of the "hot" watches.

The vintage watches, again the dealers didn't have a stack of the same model, 50 deep.
That don't need to liquidate to create enough cash flow.

[RFC]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

I think the difference is due more to dealer inventory.
I think 2010 to 2016, the vintage market was red hot.
But dealers would have a hard time scaling with vintage inventory.
And I think that was half the reason modern Rolex took off. It was so much easier to scale.

Based on my knowledge of the antique/collectables market, in a healthy market 30% of your sales will go to other dealers.
In a hot market, 50% of your sales will got to other dealers.
In a poor market, typically 10% of your sales are to another dealer.

And in this current market that resembles a game of hot potato, there are a lot of dealers with large inventories of the "hot" watches.

The vintage watches, again the dealers didn't have a stack of the same model, 50 deep.
That don't need to liquidate to create enough cash flow.

Let me see if I get it. Are you saying that vintage Rolex is hot right now and dealers are simply not having to sell their inventories of collectible watches? What I found interesting too from your response is that there’s a substantial chunk of dealer to dealer sales. This would explain supra normal current prices to ordinary enthusiasts of popular models like the 5513 and 1675. What this teaches me as an an ordinary enthusiast is to be patient, very patient for Rolex vintage and be ready to buy….

[swaini3]

I agree with springer. Thank God Vintage weren't hyped as much as the newer models. I have noticed the same on vintage Daytona's and DRSD.

[Lalaji]

Just to share my observation in other part of the world, Hong Kong .The price at shops probably more immune, but when you take your watch to sell or trade in. The shops are quite conservative and ask for a rather large spreads due to the generally softer market demand. If the piece is not too unique and nice in condition, they may not even give an offer at all.

So IMHO unlike modern models which prices are trading almost like commodity (also with larger spread now of course), there are more subjectivity in pricing a vintage Rolex.

So in short, my observation is yes, the store price for vintage Rolex is probably more immune, but resale value also had a hard hit. So it depends on how to see OP's question.