Rolex demand patterns and the DJ

[colonelpurple]

I have written this ramble simply because I have some time whilst tutoring my son, am a real geek, and genuinely interested in a gentle chat to hear other people experiences. I hope no flame war develops. BTW just to give you a bit of background, I live in London, UK. I work for a Japanese company and in the past have mostly worked for US companies.

I was kind of prompted by someone rudely criticising someone else’s choice of watch on one of the threads here. I guess it wasn’t their taste, but they projected their taste onto the whole market which is of course childish. They also seemed to base in a large part, the suitability of the watch on its demand, but of course demand is an odd thing. There is higher demand for Subs and DJs globally, Rolexes top sellers, however DJs are easier to get hold of as their massive amount of colourway combinations makes them less reserved then a design which has no variation.

The truth is that there is different demand for different Rolex models and colourways. This is true whatever we like personally. The “trend”, either for forum enthusiasts or for the general public (two completely different groups), can go against our own taste. Sometimes this causes upset. Everything can also change over time and fashion.

Generally stainless steel (SS) models are more in demand than bi-metal (TT) and precious metal (PM) due to a number of reasons, and I may have not captured them all here.
1. People generally like nice luxury watches to look and feel like nice luxury watches, but want a bit of subtlety and not too much flash. This can also be combined with worry about theft, getting a colleague jealous or just the perception of tough. Nevertheless although mechanical watches are jewellery, and basically unnecessary, there is always a balance between pretending to be tool and actually thinking you have value for the money spent.
2. Rolex is aspirational and many people stretch themselves to buy them. SS watches are basically the cheapest. I am not saying that most who buy an SS Rolex aren’t totally rich of course, but as the cheapest metal this does cover a proportion of buyers.
3. SS watches are considered to have higher resale value, and this figures in many people’s mind when they buy an expensive watch, however we look down on this motivation in enthusiast forums.

Rolex makes less SS watches then there is demand for, and more TT and PM as their margin is much higher. There is a limit to how many PM watches they can sell, however they can sell more TT watches as many people who can’t get the SS watches will be tempted to buy TT for around 1/3 more. PM is more than 3x the cost.

Diving and sports dominate watches sales in the west. In the east it is dress watches. My Hong Kong contact tell me that a Rolex without diamond pips is considered cheaping out there. Whilst they are definitely not first choice for most buyers in the west.

In fact I have been told that if you want to make money on Rolex, if you are travelling east to west buy a professional model. If you are travelling west to east buy a TT DJ with diamonds. I include this only for your amusement !

This brings us to the DJ. The DJ is Rolex’s best and eternal seller. The DJ comes in so many combinations, and the ADs don’t have any choice in what they get, which are relatively small numbers. This means that it is highly unlikely that an average AD, particular a single shop jewellery business, will have a waiting list for most combinations.

They therefore will call around their faithful clients to see who wants stock as it comes in. If you are a lucky browser before stock is sold, they will offer you. Particularly if they think you are a serious person, collect watches, rich or any other attribute that they determine might mean repeat business.

That is why it has always been relatively easier to pick up DJs if you are open minded about the colourway.

There are some DJ colourways that are in great demand, in particular blue, Wimbledon and green. These ones need reservation and can have surprisingly long waiting times, depending on the location of the AD. Furthermore the TTs with these dials, or the champagne, can also be difficult to get.

I haven’t mentioned PMs since now, as the PM watch customer is a different beast and is generally motivated to get PM from the start. PM watch buyers are paying 4x the cost of SS and 3x the cost of TT. PM watches, apart from a few colourways, will lose at least 1/3 of the value the second the buyer walks out of the door, at for sale or exchange price back to ADs or dealers. This is over £10k in UK money. This is why IMHO PM Rolexes are the ultimate status symbol. Unlike SS professional buyers who will often (not always of course) put themselves through a tortuous process and have in their back of their mind “investment”, PM buyers couldn’t give a fig and it is water off a ducks back. They are the real beasts of Rolex. Some super models turn me on, but all Rolex PM owners turn me on (LOL). If you want a laugh, read Ken Rockwell's description of a Leica man.

In terms of ADs, oh dear oh dear. Anything between submissive and dismissive dominates the chats. I don’t believe in relationships. I believe in service. I have bought loads of watches and from multiple ADs. I would much prefer to have three ADs I have bought 3 watches with then one where I have bought 9. Simply because I have access to 3x the stock and 3x the colourway allocations. But that is just my opinion.

Anyway, this is all taste and personal experience. You may have found something completely different in your neck of the woods. Also, as always, I buy a watch to wear and look at.

I spent years buying designs that dominated forum likes, and therefore was endlessly flipping, including a number of professional Rolexes. Today I have found happiness with a beautiful green Breitling Navitimer, TT DJ, crazy Doxa, nutty omega and continue to love Alexander Shorokhoff, because I want a watch to bring a smile to my face, as well as be comfortable (a more recent requirement LOL).

Note: the above comes with a government health warning. Attempts to take things too seriously for a jewellery item can result in severe happiness deprivation