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4 July 2024, 02:46 AM | #1 |
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Why are APs dropping so much faster despite the sale restrictions?
Bunch of sources out there (watch charts) etc have APs falling much faster in secondary value compared to Patek and Rolex. I understand that Watches will never be investments (unless it’s a Tiffany Nautilus at retail :) but I would like some sort of value retention. Curious to know what it is about market dynamics that’s disproportionately affecting the brand?
Is it just not cool? Is it the Travis Scott Fiasco. Is it the Marvel collars? Or just something else Technically, the sales restrictions should prevent supply inflating too much but it doesn’t seem to be working. |
4 July 2024, 02:49 AM | #2 | |
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The obscene/aggressive prices hikes over the last few years is definitely a factor (e.g., continuously raising the price of ROOs despite being able to get them on secondary market for like $15k off MSRP). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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4 July 2024, 03:09 AM | #3 |
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^This, plus let’s not forget you could buy a pre-owned basic RO for $12k from 2010 thru 2018 ish. Bubble has popped and going back to normal.
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4 July 2024, 03:22 AM | #4 |
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I for one welcome a correction, but keep in mind that a watch like Rolex is much more popular to the masses than AP. So you have to assume people are flocking to Rolex before AP. Plus perhaps that really extra disposable income might not be there, so that always leads to price reductions.
AP can do as they please with their MSRP, I can only assume they will keep selling everything they make |
4 July 2024, 03:30 AM | #5 | |
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Last 2yrs Market: -25.8% PP: -31.1% Rolex: -19.4% AP: -31.3% Last 6 months Market: -3.3% PP: -3.5% Rolex: -2.6% AP: -4.2% So, rather than Rolex and PP vs AP, it seems more like Rolex vs PP and AP. Why? Look at the 5yr numbers: Rolex: +22% PP: +80.3% AP: +81.5% So, using the info from that site, AP had the most insane run-up from 2018 on, closely followed by PP, with Rolex trailing far behind. Conversely, with the market returning to some form of sanity, AP and PP are on steeper decline from much higher highs than Rolex (but still maintain a much higher gain over 5 years). No need to invoke false narratives around Travis Scott or Marvel. I personally think that's a rubbish way to look at this hobby, but you brought up the charts.
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AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST // 26715.ST.ZZ || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
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4 July 2024, 03:43 AM | #6 | |
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4 July 2024, 03:57 AM | #7 | |
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Amen 🙏 Thanks for your valuable and succinct reply to the O/P |
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4 July 2024, 04:08 AM | #8 |
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4 July 2024, 04:11 AM | #9 | |
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AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST // 26715.ST.ZZ || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
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4 July 2024, 04:13 AM | #10 |
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so yeah, there's more room to fall for AP as the hype fades and watches aren't purchased as investments or as "inflation hedges" lol
offshore MSRP seems especially over priced beware of grey dealers doing their best to hide true prices and prop up the market |
4 July 2024, 04:25 AM | #11 |
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Watchcharts is bullshit.
Just look at MODA, watch dealer chats, etc. there is a very clear trend. And never forget the best barometer is actually approaching dealers and seeing what price they will buy a particular piece, and you can back into their margin. This tells you all you need to know - ask them what they’d buy a 15500 for. Very unfortunate it has come to this with the investment and speculative culture. Sucks that we even have to have this conversation, but make no mistake the AP prices are sinking like a lead brick
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4 July 2024, 05:20 AM | #12 | |
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I don't think anybody is denying that secondary prices have fallen significantly and may (likely) continue to do so. But if you want to revive OP's specific premise, you should come up with something more quantitative than "Just look...".
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AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST // 26715.ST.ZZ || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
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4 July 2024, 05:24 AM | #13 | |
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AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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4 July 2024, 06:42 AM | #14 |
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The fact that most dealers are buying APs only on consignment vs Rolex and the Patek sports models (which they’re still buying outright) speaks for itself…
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4 July 2024, 06:43 AM | #15 |
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Thank you. This isn’t an intellectually difficult exercise whatsoever. Just apply some common sense as to what that means.
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4 July 2024, 07:04 AM | #16 |
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Yeah, it tells you that now interest rates are up no dealer wants to go out of pocket for any high priced piece. Why don't you shop a rainbow Daytona and see how many takers you get. It's about the cost of capital, and the speed at which inventory turns, and it is true for all brands.
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4 July 2024, 07:08 AM | #17 | |
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Instead, compare a royal oak 3 hander to a comparable SS sports piece (aquanaut or nautilus). In fact, dealers are still buying those despite being higher priced.
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4 July 2024, 07:18 AM | #18 | |
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The caveat is that this is anecdotal experience with a sample size of 3 dealers exhibiting similar behaviour. Perhaps others have seen differently and I would be open to hearing alternate perspectives. It’s a shame since I’ve had a great experience at AP boutiques but I sense a discrepancy on the scarcity they’re artificially creating vs what the market is indicating vs both Patek and Rolex |
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4 July 2024, 07:35 AM | #19 | |
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Anyway, who cares. AP is going to zero. Market is collapsing. It's only AP, PP and Rolex are awesome and totally not dropping at all. Why everyone wants to fight is beyond me. It's tedious and boring. I regret coming back here every time. |
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4 July 2024, 07:40 AM | #20 | |
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No one said AP is going to zero. No one has said the market is collapsing. Stop drawing extremes. Again, comparatively priced (15510st vs 5167a) for example. Ask a dealer and see what they say. No reason to be so bitter bro you’re online talking to strangers lmao
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4 July 2024, 08:28 AM | #21 | |
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4 July 2024, 08:29 AM | #22 | |
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4 July 2024, 08:32 AM | #23 | |
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Please don’t leave here. The reality is that these market pricing threads invariably descend into chaos here……irrespective of the balance that members try to introduce. But the fact this watch collecting passion has become another debatable asset class to be questioned ad nauseam is the real shame as it’s removed the whole point in my view. And it’s also why a number of valued members have stopped posting as TRF becomes a race to the bottom for those obsessing with market value vs. the whole point of buying/enjoying fine timepieces. |
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4 July 2024, 09:05 AM | #24 |
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I do see more of the desirable models from Rolex being listed but not much change in prices yet.
Let me know when you see the AP 16202 dropping LOL. The more common stuff may drop a little but I doubt you will see much movement in the really desirable pieces as people with $ will have $. It's the people who live on credit who are going to have a hard time going forward.
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4 July 2024, 09:13 AM | #25 |
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Well said Gareth. It is a buyer’s market again - collectors are rejoicing, “investors” are running for the hills. That suits me fine!
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4 July 2024, 10:35 AM | #26 |
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APs have been experiencing a more significant drop in secondary market value lately, and there are a few factors at play. The brand's high-profile collaborations, like the Marvel series, and the Travis Scott incident have stirred mixed reactions. Some enthusiasts feel these moves stray from AP’s traditional appeal.
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4 July 2024, 11:02 AM | #27 | |
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4 July 2024, 12:06 PM | #28 |
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Already banned it seems.
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4 July 2024, 08:42 PM | #29 |
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4 July 2024, 09:29 PM | #30 | ||
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__________________
AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST // 26715.ST.ZZ || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
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