CODE 11.59 Production Analysis 2019-2024

[Gandor]

The CODE 11.59 launched in 2019 with an initial production run of 2000 watches with the plan for the code to comprise 20-25% of Audemars Piguet's total output. I was curious and wanted to figure out how many CODEs AP has made and how many are available on the open market to get a rough estimate of turnover.

First let us consider total AP production by year as some years code production is listed as a percent of total production.

From 2019-2024 AP produced:

40,000 Watches 2019

https://luxurysociety.com/en/how-aud...models-retail/

~40,000 Watches 2020 (Likely a bit more as they began ramping up here)

45,000 Watches 2021

50,000 watches 2022

~52,250 watches in 2023
https://www.watchpro.com/audemars-pi...ches-per-year/

~55000 watches in 2024




Now let us consider how CODE production falls into the total production. In 2020 AP planned to produce 4000 CODE 11.59s but was only able to produce 3000.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2019/01/aud...code-1159.html


https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/watche...guet-code-1159

We do not have data for CODE 11.59 production between 2021-2022 but we can assume production continued to grow over this period and we can interpolate 2021-2022 production.

In 2023 ~5000 CODE 11.59 watches were produced.

https://swisswatches-magazine.com/au...ovelties-2024/

In 2024 the CODE 11.59 plans to account for 12% of production and AP plans on producing ~55000 watches in 2024 resulting in ~6600 Code 11.59 watches produced.

https://www.businessoffashion.com/ne...-record-sales/

Plotting the known and extrapolated values we can estimate the total number of CODE 11.59 watches produced between 2019 and the end of 2024.


Rolex makes more daytonas in any give year than AP has ever made CODEs

We can see that production has significantly ramped up after 2022 and will continue to ramp up as AP plans to have CODES account for 25% of production capacity.

For analysis of market, we will only consider chrono24 listings as they represent the largest aggregated marketplace.

Currently, as of this posting, there are 654 CODE 11.59s across all references and years available on CHRONO24 representing a meager 2.69% of all codes. Even if we assume there is a distinct liquid market of equal size to chrono24 in the hands of unlisted private dealers that would only account for around 5% of the total code production.

So roughly 95% of codes produced today in the hands of owners and aren't actively being circulated. To me that represents an extremely strong ownership/trade ratio given the rapid growth in production of the line. What's also interesting is how tangibly small the CODE market is for a non-limited watch. From a speculative asset standpoint it really only requires a small hype event to bring the floating supply of codes to zero and beyond that there isn't a great total supply to refill that demand. It gets even more interesting when you consider limited lines within the CODE collection, tourbillons and openworks for example are extremely undervalued imo. While I don't believe there is a hype event coming soon, unless AP starts forcing collaborations and sponsors to wear and promote them, it is still interesting to consider where the CODE market is with respect to its supply.

[Broadbear]

Wow, it seems that there is a small number of codes in circulation. However, they're being sold at approximately 40% discount in the secondary market. Prices are likely to drop even more as the watch market keeps falling and with AP increasing production numbers. I thought there were a lot more codes since a lot of people use it for history building and buying Royal Oaks.


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[Gandor]

Originally Posted by Broadbear

Wow, it seems that there is small number of codes in circulation. However, they’re being sold at approx 40% discount in the secondary market. Prices are likely to drop even more as the watch market keeps falling and with AP increasing production numbers. I thought there were a lot more codes since a lot of people use it for history building and buying royal oaks.


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That's what gets me. The discount rate doesn't match the circulation AT ALL. It's completely disconnected from supply.

[Broadbear]

Originally Posted by Gandor

That's what gets me. The discount rate doesn't match the circulation AT ALL. It's completely disconnected from supply.

So if it’s not a supply issue then demand must be so bad to justify such discounts.


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[Octagon Guy]

Originally Posted by Gandor

The CODE 11.59 launched in 2019 with an initial production run of 2000 watches with the plan for the code to comprise 20-25% of Audemars Piguet's total output. I was curious and wanted to figure out how many CODEs AP has made and how many are available on the open market to get a rough estimate of turnover.

First let us consider total AP production by year as some years code production is listed as a percent of total production.

From 2019-2024 AP produced:

40,000 Watches 2019

https://luxurysociety.com/en/how-aud...models-retail/

~40,000 Watches 2020 (Likely a bit more as they began ramping up here)

45,000 Watches 2021

50,000 watches 2022

~52,250 watches in 2023
https://www.watchpro.com/audemars-pi...ches-per-year/

~55000 watches in 2024




Now let us consider how CODE production falls into the total production. In 2020 AP planned to produce 4000 CODE 11.59s but was only able to produce 3000.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2019/01/aud...code-1159.html


https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/watche...guet-code-1159

We do not have data for CODE 11.59 production between 2021-2022 but we can assume production continued to grow over this period and we can interpolate 2021-2022 production.

In 2023 ~5000 CODE 11.59 watches were produced.

https://swisswatches-magazine.com/au...ovelties-2024/

In 2024 the CODE 11.59 plans to account for 12% of production and AP plans on producing ~55000 watches in 2024 resulting in ~6600 Code 11.59 watches produced.

https://www.businessoffashion.com/ne...-record-sales/

Plotting the known and extrapolated values we can estimate the total number of CODE 11.59 watches produced between 2019 and the end of 2024.


Rolex makes more daytonas in any give year than AP has ever made CODEs

We can see that production has significantly ramped up after 2022 and will continue to ramp up as AP plans to have CODES account for 25% of production capacity.

For analysis of market, we will only consider chrono24 listings as they represent the largest aggregated marketplace.

Currently, as of this posting, there are 654 CODE 11.59s across all references and years available on CHRONO24 representing a meager 2.69% of all codes. Even if we assume there is a distinct liquid market of equal size to chrono24 in the hands of unlisted private dealers that would only account for around 5% of the total code production.

So roughly 95% of codes produced today in the hands of owners and aren't actively being circulated. To me that represents an extremely strong ownership/trade ratio given the rapid growth in production of the line. What's also interesting is how tangibly small the CODE market is for a non-limited watch. From a speculative asset standpoint it really only requires a small hype event to bring the floating supply of codes to zero and beyond that there isn't a great total supply to refill that demand. It gets even more interesting when you consider limited lines within the CODE collection, tourbillons and openworks for example are extremely undervalued imo. While I don't believe there is a hype event coming soon, unless AP starts forcing collaborations and sponsors to wear and promote them, it is still interesting to consider where the CODE market is with respect to its supply.

Very interesting analysis!

[Verticalforce]

Originally Posted by Broadbear

So if it’s not a supply issue then demand must be so bad to justify such discounts.


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Secondary demand for code 1159 is bad… very bad…

There is a used Code 11.59 QP now that is listed more than 50% below RRP (before nego) on Singapore grey market that has been sitting for months (i’ve been monitoring it)

Production volume for QP is very low so imagine for the rest of Code 11.59 models

As another data point, I bought a used time and date Code 11.59 (fume blue dial) 1.5 years ago at > 50% below retail, and when I traded in the watch early this year, I still lost a fair bit of money.

[Mk2rick]

I once had a SA in Singapore tell me what Code 11.59 means. I have never stepped into that boutique ever again nor reply to his repeated messages that read: "a Code 11.59 has just arrived, would you like to come pick it up?"

'Code' is in fact an acronym. C stands for 'challenge', O for 'own', D for 'dare' and E for 'evolve'. 11:59 is the last minute before midnight, or midday.

The SA said it with such gusto and pride too! I looked at him with a dazed look, like watching a car crash happen before me. With that kind of backstory to support this watch, i have no reason to question why even with a thin supply, the watch is still trading >50% below RRP.

[In-N-Out]

I’m not too optimistic about future resale value of the Code, but I definitely think this lineup will become exponentially more popular in the next 10 years….especially with Gen Z.

Good estimates around production volume by the way. I’m not too sure about your circulation math though, and I wouldn’t put that much emphasis on that anyway. It’s kind of like trying to backsolve for market cap with trading volume, which simply isn’t possible. Looking at the resale value is the best way to really gauge overall sentiment imo.

[PattayaHammerTime]

I bought mine to wear and not to flip as I like it and wanted something a bit dressy that I could still wear in down time.
The market on watches in general is weak wouldn't everyone agree, I mean you can have a piece that should get a certain amount but it's all about trying to find the buyer these days to attain that amount, not easy unless you want to start meeting people off craigslist or facebook market place and we all know how that can work out.
How many people are actually into watches for what they are and the pleasure they bring?
The ratio to those who purchase as an investment and to show off 'hey I paid 20k for this but could sell it for 30k+, look at me aren't I clever' would be quite significant if you were to do a chart on that in comparison to actual watch connoisseurs.

If AP were to get code presence on celebs and sports stars then things could pick up, till then keep hating and waiting for the RO you dream about!

[Akacoke]

Code is the yatch master of Rolex.

[Halothane]

Originally Posted by Akacoke

Code is the yatch master of Rolex.

Fair comparison- I do like the Starwheel and the RG yachty on OF. So each family produced one good looking offspring

Originally Posted by Mk2rick

I once had a SA in Singapore tell me what Code 11.59 means. I have never stepped into that boutique ever again nor reply to his repeated messages that read: "a Code 11.59 has just arrived, would you like to come pick it up?"

'Code' is in fact an acronym. C stands for 'challenge', O for 'own', D for 'dare' and E for 'evolve'. 11:59 is the last minute before midnight, or midday.

The SA said it with such gusto and pride too! I looked at him with a dazed look, like watching a car crash happen before me. With that kind of backstory to support this watch, i have no reason to question why even with a thin supply, the watch is still trading >50% below RRP.

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[Gandor]

Originally Posted by Mk2rick

I once had a SA in Singapore tell me what Code 11.59 means. I have never stepped into that boutique ever again nor reply to his repeated messages that read: "a Code 11.59 has just arrived, would you like to come pick it up?"

'Code' is in fact an acronym. C stands for 'challenge', O for 'own', D for 'dare' and E for 'evolve'. 11:59 is the last minute before midnight, or midday.

The SA said it with such gusto and pride too! I looked at him with a dazed look, like watching a car crash happen before me. With that kind of backstory to support this watch, i have no reason to question why even with a thin supply, the watch is still trading >50% below RRP.

I'd honestly be 100% ok with AP retconing the name. In fairness AP keeping the line going for 5 years and doubling down each year on it really exemplifies what C.O.D.E. means haha.

[Palex]

Nice work, interesting to see the production of the years together. Have a few RO’s, but get the best reactions from people on my code!










We’ll see in a few years where the code stands. For me, happy to have one in my “collection”

[Econdon]

I think they just need to throw in a non-tourbillon openworked movement into the CODE lineup as well as make some smaller case sizes geared towards both men/women and it'll generate some hype

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Gandor

The CODE 11.59 launched in 2019 with an initial production run of 2000 watches with the plan for the code to comprise 20-25% of Audemars Piguet's total output. I was curious and wanted to figure out how many CODEs AP has made and how many are available on the open market to get a rough estimate of turnover.

First let us consider total AP production by year as some years code production is listed as a percent of total production.

From 2019-2024 AP produced:

40,000 Watches 2019

https://luxurysociety.com/en/how-aud...models-retail/

~40,000 Watches 2020 (Likely a bit more as they began ramping up here)

45,000 Watches 2021

50,000 watches 2022

~52,250 watches in 2023
https://www.watchpro.com/audemars-pi...ches-per-year/

~55000 watches in 2024




Now let us consider how CODE production falls into the total production. In 2020 AP planned to produce 4000 CODE 11.59s but was only able to produce 3000.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2019/01/aud...code-1159.html


https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/watche...guet-code-1159

We do not have data for CODE 11.59 production between 2021-2022 but we can assume production continued to grow over this period and we can interpolate 2021-2022 production.

In 2023 ~5000 CODE 11.59 watches were produced.

https://swisswatches-magazine.com/au...ovelties-2024/

In 2024 the CODE 11.59 plans to account for 12% of production and AP plans on producing ~55000 watches in 2024 resulting in ~6600 Code 11.59 watches produced.

https://www.businessoffashion.com/ne...-record-sales/

Plotting the known and extrapolated values we can estimate the total number of CODE 11.59 watches produced between 2019 and the end of 2024.


Rolex makes more daytonas in any give year than AP has ever made CODEs

We can see that production has significantly ramped up after 2022 and will continue to ramp up as AP plans to have CODES account for 25% of production capacity.

For analysis of market, we will only consider chrono24 listings as they represent the largest aggregated marketplace.

Currently, as of this posting, there are 654 CODE 11.59s across all references and years available on CHRONO24 representing a meager 2.69% of all codes. Even if we assume there is a distinct liquid market of equal size to chrono24 in the hands of unlisted private dealers that would only account for around 5% of the total code production.

So roughly 95% of codes produced today in the hands of owners and aren't actively being circulated. To me that represents an extremely strong ownership/trade ratio given the rapid growth in production of the line. What's also interesting is how tangibly small the CODE market is for a non-limited watch. From a speculative asset standpoint it really only requires a small hype event to bring the floating supply of codes to zero and beyond that there isn't a great total supply to refill that demand. It gets even more interesting when you consider limited lines within the CODE collection, tourbillons and openworks for example are extremely undervalued imo. While I don't believe there is a hype event coming soon, unless AP starts forcing collaborations and sponsors to wear and promote them, it is still interesting to consider where the CODE market is with respect to its supply.

Supply side analysis is flawed. You have estimated lower bound, not the available float. Many ways supply can be significantly higher: 1. Not all new watches are sold and could be retained by the dealers 2. Grey dealers have multiple of watches and only list one unit vs many 2. Investors await better pricing environment and look for any potential increase in price to unload 4. Watch enthusiasts are unwilling to take a loss today and many more scenarios. Don’t forget, more watches are produced every year. 6,000 watches a year is a big number.

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by Econdon

I think they just need to throw in a non-tourbillon openworked movement into the CODE lineup as well as make some smaller case sizes geared towards both men/women and it'll generate some hype

I would love to see them put the double balance in a CODE case and watch the reaction/demand. Would be pretty interesting!

[PattayaHammerTime]

Originally Posted by Akacoke

Code is the yatch master of Rolex.

I LOVE my Yachtmaster

[In-N-Out]

Just did a quick crop of the 15407st dial & pasted on the code 11…looks kind of nice especially if it’s priced at less than RO version

[In-N-Out]

Here’s a crappy RG edit that lost some detail on the bottom of the dial from the crop…

[John Doyle]

Thanks for your analysis OP, this indeed proves that the code is quite the failure - expected and anticipated though, no surprises here.

[Palex]

Originally Posted by In-N-Out

Just did a quick crop of the 15407st dial & pasted on the code 11…looks kind of nice especially if it’s priced at less than RO version

[2000-NJDEVILS]

Originally Posted by john doyle

thanks for your analysis op, this indeed proves that the code is quite the failure - expected and anticipated though, no surprises here.

spot on!

[lucasalce]

openworked code looks insane.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Supply side analysis is flawed. You have estimated lower bound, not the available float. Many ways supply can be significantly higher: 1. Not all new watches are sold and could be retained by the dealers 2. Grey dealers have multiple of watches and only list one unit vs many 2. Investors await better pricing environment and look for any potential increase in price to unload 4. Watch enthusiasts are unwilling to take a loss today and many more scenarios. Don’t forget, more watches are produced every year. 6,000 watches a year is a big number.

Tend to agree. Clearly against almost any Rolex model (exl TT) a code is a recipe for taking a big bath.

I'd venture to say the lack of available codes on C24 is as much an indication of low volume as it is of the relative unattractiveness to sell. Perhaps only try code lovers buy the watch and are ok owning it for a long time since there's incentive to have a liquid market / sell it knowing you're taking a multi-$$k or $10-40k loss instantly when you sell it so people are ok holding it.

Funny how Daytonas or BLNRs etc have been produced in quantities of what must be 50x and they're still holding way stronger than this model

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by In-N-Out

Just did a quick crop of the 15407st dial & pasted on the code 11…looks kind of nice especially if it’s priced at less than RO version

Thanks for this. Man that would be great, no brainer release IMO

[Gandor]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Thanks for this. Man that would be great, no brainer release IMO

AP has released codes of this caliber, openwork chronograph for example. Still nothing but haters.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Gandor

AP has released codes of this caliber, openwork chronograph for example. Still nothing but haters.

That’s cool but nothing beats the 15407 OW architecture.

[In-N-Out]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Thanks for this. Man that would be great, no brainer release IMO

Haha no problem! Yea I was surprised at how good this looked, especially the aventurine in the background

[Mighty_Kraken]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Thanks for this. Man that would be great, no brainer release IMO

Quite telling when a member of an internet watch forum creates better looking watches via photoshop (through recycling existing RO designs) than the AP staff.
To be fair the dial of the Code perpetual and the dials made by Anita Porchet are really nice.

[boa2]

An open-worked would be amazing, and the Starwheel is a stunner. Unfortunately, I think the Code line is AP's Quai de l'Ile, and won't have a long lifespan. Hope I'm wrong.