5164a - Grey

[zosg]

I currently have a 5711 (blue), 116500 Daytona (white), and Batman. I have purchased all of these at MSRP but these were purchased many years ago. After speaking to a number of AD's recently, it seems basically impossible that I'd be able to get a Patek that I really want.

I've had two kids in the last few years and I want to commemorate that by getting an aquanaut. I've narrowed it down to a 5167a and 5164a (now discontinued). I tried both on and am leaning towards the 64a.

1) I told myself I'd never pay above retail for a watch. Am I crazy for considering to pay ~$70k for the 64a?
2) I know the watch has come down in value from the peak and that no one really knows where values are heading, but do you foresee this watch going much lower than ~$70k moving forward? It wouldn't be a great feeling to make an expensive purchase like this only to know that values then declined sharply.
3) Do you think the 64a fits the "collection" better than the 67a?

All input is appreciated!

[Calatrava r]

I really don't see much further downside unless the whole market softens from tastes moving away from watches to some other stuff. I do not see such a change anytime soon.

[masochistsr]

Ignoring price, I prefer the 5164a to 5164g. Given that it’s discontinued, I don’t see prices dropping below 60k. At 70k, it’s only 30k / 70% more than its last MSRP.

Given you have a three hander Nautilus, I think an Aquanaut with a complication would complement it nicely. I did the reverse. Bought a 5167a at retail in 2016 then added a pre-owned 5711a last year.

[rjohnston713]

I like the 5167 for the simplicity of the dial, if I was aiming to having a Nautilus/Aquanaut combo for me it would be a 5712 and 5167. For your current collection those 3 watches you have pack a powerful combo punch!

[APhound]

I had 67 and traded for 64. Like it way more. It’s worth it. You’re up enough on your other watches to justify it and get it now. Don’t waste your time at the dealer.


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[aa_watch]

5164a is a smart buy since recently discontinued.
The new 5164G retail price will only drive the steel price up, Patek discontinues most steel sports watches.

The grey price of 5164 remains very strong and I do not see it going much lower, price has been stable for over a year.

Regarding 5167, this reference is more "boring" in my point of view.

[KVNNSCHNG]

I know you are leaning towards the 64, but I can speak to the 67 and let you know that it is not a $50K, $60K, or whatever the prices is these days watch (IMO). It's great, but not at those prices. I can't image the 64 at $70K+ would be any different.

[Tachycardia]

Agree with much of the above. 5164a is much more interesting, and useful complication. Probably my favorite aquanaut. Size is good too. Not too big or small.
I would vote for 5164a

[GB-man]

5164A is one of my absolute favorite modern pateks but predicting any watch isn't going down in value is certainly a call against the current trend. I have no crystal ball so I generally advise people a continuation of the current trend is most likely unless something changes.

tl;dr buy it but don't be upset if you see them trading 10k less in a year.

[subtona]

Having owned both I’m a fan of the 5167.

[KBM]

Since you are still in the planning stage of this purchase and this watch is meant to mark a very special occasion in your life, I feel it would be important to add the following consideration to the conversation.

I love the 5164a and owned it for a couple of years. I paid 31k for it bnib and sold it for 28k. Such was the market back then. I mention this, however, to illustrate another point: it's a 30k watch in its conception, meaning it's built as a 30k watch and, as far as intrinsical value goes, its a good proposition for a 30k watch.

If you are worried about the market shifting on this piece, I would suggest you consider this broader question: are you willing to drop 70k (or 60k, no matter) on a 30k watch? It simply doesn't *feel* like 70k. And that's fine, as it wasn't built to compete in that price bracket. As I mentioned, it's a fine timepiece for what it was intended, this isn't an attack on the watch - I like it a lot still.

Having that in mind, there are several other Pateks at that 70k prince range that either feel as special as the required buy in or even more. For someone with your concerns, perhaps that approach is just more reasonable, since if the market moves, you will not be left with the feeling that you wasted money on hype alone.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by KBM

Since you are still in the planning stage of this purchase and this watch is meant to mark a very special occasion in your life, I feel it would be important to add the following consideration to the conversation.

I love the 5164a and owned it for a couple of years. I paid 31k for it bnib and sold it for 28k. Such was the market back then. I mention this, however, to illustrate another point: it's a 30k watch in its conception, meaning it's built as a 30k watch and, as far as intrinsical value goes, its a good proposition for a 30k watch.

If you are worried about the market shifting on this piece, I would suggest you consider this broader question: are you willing to drop 70k (or 60k, no matter) on a 30k watch? It simply doesn't *feel* like 70k. And that's fine, as it wasn't built to compete in that price bracket. As I mentioned, it's a fine timepiece for what it was intended, this isn't an attack on the watch - I like it a lot still.

Having that in mind, there are several other Pateks at that 70k prince range that either feel as special as the required buy in or even more. For someone with your concerns, perhaps that approach is just more reasonable, since if the market moves, you will not be left with the feeling that you wasted money on hype alone.

Interesting and thoughtful points.

I agree there are some Patek’s that have qualities that may portray a more value but if the market doesn’t appreciate them the owner winds up losing monetary value.


The sports line have outpaced many others and i expect will continue to do so.

Being discontinued should help stabilize the higher price.

Full disclosure I had more than 1 occasion to accidentally change the time while adjusting the watch on my wrist on a hot day. I believe that is a meaningful flaw in the design. I would add I believe Patek also realizes this which is why the 5524 has locking buttons and the newer movement on different models has integrated movement of the hour hand away from the pushers and into the crown. (Like the explorer II / GMT)

[aa_watch]

Originally Posted by KBM

Since you are still in the planning stage of this purchase and this watch is meant to mark a very special occasion in your life, I feel it would be important to add the following consideration to the conversation.

I love the 5164a and owned it for a couple of years. I paid 31k for it bnib and sold it for 28k. Such was the market back then. I mention this, however, to illustrate another point: it's a 30k watch in its conception, meaning it's built as a 30k watch and, as far as intrinsical value goes, its a good proposition for a 30k watch.

If you are worried about the market shifting on this piece, I would suggest you consider this broader question: are you willing to drop 70k (or 60k, no matter) on a 30k watch? It simply doesn't *feel* like 70k. And that's fine, as it wasn't built to compete in that price bracket. As I mentioned, it's a fine timepiece for what it was intended, this isn't an attack on the watch - I like it a lot still.

Having that in mind, there are several other Pateks at that 70k prince range that either feel as special as the required buy in or even more. For someone with your concerns, perhaps that approach is just more reasonable, since if the market moves, you will not be left with the feeling that you wasted money on hype alone.

I 100% agree with you but I think there's a few things to consider.
I personally think it's more accepted to pay a premium once a watch is discontinued.
For exemple, vintage Daytonas were originally sold in the 4 digits, today it's an other story.

An other thing to consider if you plan to keep the watch for long term, retail prices are increasing every year. It's quite safe to assume the retail price of the Aquanaut would be much closer to grey market in a few years. Retail prices increase 7% on average per years.

[KBM]

Originally Posted by aa_watch

I 100% agree with you but I think there's a few things to consider.
I personally think it's more accepted to pay a premium once a watch is discontinued.
For exemple, vintage Daytonas were originally sold in the 4 digits, today it's an other story.

An other thing to consider if you plan to keep the watch for long term, retail prices are increasing every year. It's quite safe to assume the retail price of the Aquanaut would be much closer to grey market in a few years. Retail prices increase 7% on average per years.

I understand the reasoning related to the premium being more justifiable once a model has been discontinued.

However, my point was more directed at the fact that, for someone concerned with the way the market will behave in the future, regarding such premium, it makes more sense, in my view, to look at a piece's intrinsic value, i.e., complications' complexity, quality of finishing and execution, metal, positioning withing the catalogue, etc. This way, any price variation doesn't affect what is most important, which is the reference's "original merits".

The 5164a was conceived, designed and executed as a great 30k travel time watch. OP is concerned about paying 70k for one. I can understand why.

[salnuaimi]

Originally Posted by KBM

I understand the reasoning related to the premium being more justifiable once a model has been discontinued.

However, my point was more directed at the fact that, for someone concerned with the way the market will behave in the future, regarding such premium, it makes more sense, in my view, to look at a piece's intrinsic value, i.e., complications' complexity, quality of finishing and execution, metal, positioning withing the catalogue, etc. This way, any price variation doesn't affect what is most important, which is the reference's "original merits".

The 5164a was conceived, designed and executed as a great 30k travel time watch. OP is concerned about paying 70k for one. I can understand why.

would you get 5726 strap over it ? almost same price in grey .

[jgottsman11]

my opinion 64 all day. I had the 67a and then 67r and now have the 64r and it's my favorite watch i've ever owned. I don't take it off

[KBM]

Originally Posted by salnuaimi

would you get 5726 strap over it ? almost same price in grey .

Personally, especially taking into account OP's concerns, I'd go for a QP (5140, 3940) or a manual wind chrono (5170, 5172) below msrp before considering an aquanaut or nautilus above msrp. But this is my taste speaking, of course, and doesn't help much with OP's dilemma, hence why I wasn't focusing my comments on specific references before.

[Vince_76]

Not to hijack thread, but I’m somewhat of a patek noob and curious where folks think the 5167a stabilizes at? Right now in Moda I am seeing great condition full sets in the mid to high 40s. Of course it’s an impossible question to answer, but curious what the general sentiment is.

@OP - you only live once, but if you are economically driven, then makes the most sense to hold off as I think there is more downside than potential upside here. That said, Time on the wrist is valuable and if you don’t plan on selling it later, this may be less of a concern. I still think it’s a crazy amount for an entry-level patek on a rubber strap, but that’s where the market is today.

[zosg]

I genuinely appreciate everyone’s comments and perspective. I recognize there are watches with greater complications or finer metals but frankly many of those don’t appeal to me.

I intend to buy a 5164a. Perhaps I should have phrased my questions as follows: 1) For those who have bought a 5164a (or other PP at a premium) via a gray dealer, do you have any regrets in doing so? 2) Prices have come down a bit and the watch has since been discontinued so does now feel like a decent time to buy or do you foresee values coming down even more?

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by zosg

I genuinely appreciate everyone’s comments and perspective. I recognize there are watches with greater complications or finer metals but frankly many of those don’t appeal to me.

I intend to buy a 5164a. Perhaps I should have phrased my questions as follows: 1) For those who have bought a 5164a (or other PP at a premium) via a gray dealer, do you have any regrets in doing so? 2) Prices have come down a bit and the watch has since been discontinued so does now feel like a decent time to buy or do you foresee values coming down even more?

No regrets. Love the watch, especially for travel. No opinion on future prices.

[Mahatma]

Originally Posted by zosg

I genuinely appreciate everyone’s comments and perspective. I recognize there are watches with greater complications or finer metals but frankly many of those don’t appeal to me.

I intend to buy a 5164a. Perhaps I should have phrased my questions as follows: 1) For those who have bought a 5164a (or other PP at a premium) via a gray dealer, do you have any regrets in doing so? 2) Prices have come down a bit and the watch has since been discontinued so does now feel like a decent time to buy or do you foresee values coming down even more?

Did you pull the trigger on the 5164a?