126500ln grey vs. OYsterflex Daytona at AD

[sigma089]

Hi,

I would like to get your perspective.

I have been collecting watches for around 15 years and would like to get my hands on a Daytona. I am based in Europe and apart from that model, I have owned practically everything I have ever been interested in within my price range (max <35k EUR; norm. 10-15k EUR).

TLDR:
Should I start looking for a 126500ln (white) despite its absurd premium over an Oysterflex Daytona at retail which I'll probably get allocated in 1-2 years?

LR:
My current Rolex collection consists of a matte 5513 and a 126234 (blue fluted dial). I have other watches (mainly GS), but they are out of the equation for this question. I owned a 5164a for some time, but decided to sell it because I felt it wore too large (6.5 inch wrist), loved it otherwise.

I have a 126610LV on the way (have been waiting for two years and will get it within the next 12 months according to my AD) and I am on the list for a 126710GRNR which shouldn't be too hard to get as far as I can tell from discussion in the forums. I have a reasonably good relationship with two Rolex ADs, nothing special though.

My question:
I would like to get a 1265XXln Daytona. I put my name down for the rose oysterflex (126515ln black) at one AD and for the yellow gold (126518ln Pikachu) at the other. I felt it was "a better deal" at retail than going grey for a 126500ln which I have zero chances getting allocated. But is it really?

I figure with a little haggling in today's market I will be able to get a mint/new 126500ln (white) for 27.500 EUR / 30.000 USD. While that's an enormous premium over retail, it's still cheaper than a RG/WG/YG Oysterflex at around 35.000 EUR / 38.000 USD. If I decide I don't want to keep it, resale should be easier as well. I am afraid that either PM (even Pikachu) will be a harder sale.

I do have the money, but if I buy the Oysterflex, I will have to get rid of or decline at least the LV or GRNR (LV probably, because I like GMTs). Due to it being PM, I expect a wait of around 1-2 years for the Oysterflex and have been told as much. I don't believe Oysterflex Daytonas will be trading over retail in long run, with exception of maybe the Pikachu, though I don't think that'll stabilize more than 5-10 percent over retail.

What do you think? Am I crazy for even considering going grey for the SS Daytona over the Oysterflex at such a high premium?

I figure retail (and grey with it) will be rising like it always has in the long run. So isn't buying it in today's market a more sensible choice, than maybe getting the Oysterflex and potentially eating a 5.000-10.000ish loss on it when the PM market normalizes?

Really appreciate your thoughts.

[Osmin]

Simple question:

What do you want? A steel or a PM Daytona?

[BriansRolex]

Totally different watches it really boils down to which you prefer and will get the most wear and enjoyment out of rather than which will be an easier sell down the road if/when you decide to liquidate it

[PenDelicate]

Right now on Chrono24, Certified and from professional dealer in Europe:

Cheapest 126500: $31,112
Cheapest OF Daytona: $39,408
Cheapest full-gold Daytona: $35,876

Full-gold blows the other two out of the water for value.

[Hollie_Rollie]

AD is the way to go


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dave O]

It's really is a personal decision that you will ultimately have to decide on. That being said, I too was smitten over a SS white dial Daytona. It was THE watch I was after. That is, until my AD suggested going PM. I had never really thought about going PM until he put the bug in my head. The next day I told him let's put me down for a RG Daytona on a Sundust dial in OF. 4 months later the watch arrived and it's just gorgeous. So much so that I no longer have any interest in the SS Daytona. In fact, I now have the PM bug and will be looking towards more PM watches in the future.

Note: I had never even considered going grey for the SS Daytona. Way too much of a markup for it.

[Daytona king]

The pikachu is better than a SS panda. Especially if you are paying about the same price. Who knows what the prices will be in 2 years. I would say this though. The OF pikachu imo is harder to get than a SS panda. I know a lot of collectors who want the pikachu and got the panda and are still waiting for the OF pikachu.

On wearability and comfort on the wrist nothing beats the OF Daytona.

This is just a 126xxx panda vs pikachu discussion on my side. The other OF are not as strong in the market if you value that aspect. For me I don’t care about that because I wear my watches. Is it nice to know my money is safe? Yes. If I wear for a few years and If im hard up lose a few grand, I’m ok with that. I doubt that will happen but if it did it would be ok. Who knows the SS panda might go down to 20k in 2 years. Watches are meant to be worn. Not investments unless you have a meteorite Daytona or a Lemans/ vintage.

You also state you think you are getting other watches in the next few years. Nothing is given. If you have a strong relationship those watches should be wait listed in months not years. Don’t count on a watch promised to you in 2 years to fund a Daytona in 2 years. That’s not really how the watch market works. 1 in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.
Good luck.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mrngrz46]

Once you go gold you don’t look back to steel. If you can go full yellow gold instead of OF.

[nachopc]

SS Daytona is an ICON, not and oysterflex
Daytona, that’s a Rolex. I was lucky to get it at retail after spending 12k in jewelry only.
I would have paid the premium to have it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[MarioB83]

AD way for me

[Daytona king]

Originally Posted by Mrngrz46

Once you go gold you don’t look back to steel. If you can go full yellow gold instead of OF.

Full gold is nice but I prefer the wearability of the OF. I would choose the panda over this but I am allergic to paying grey prices. So if I could pay retail for all gold I would go that route over paying double retail for steel. But That’s just me. Retail or nothing


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[edyu]

Beautiful watch and great picture.

Originally Posted by Dave O

It's really is a personal decision that you will ultimately have to decide on. That being said, I too was smitten over a SS white dial Daytona. It was THE watch I was after. That is, until my AD suggested going PM. I had never really thought about going PM until he put the bug in my head. The next day I told him let's put me down for a RG Daytona on a Sundust dial in OF. 4 months later the watch arrived and it's just gorgeous. So much so that I no longer have any interest in the SS Daytona. In fact, I now have the PM bug and will be looking towards more PM watches in the future.

Note: I had never even considered going grey for the SS Daytona. Way too much of a markup for it.

[dmash]

I was just in this same predicament. Decided to skip the waiting and just go grey. Compared grey prices and the delta between them. It pretty much boiled down to:

$27k black 126500ln
$32k white 126500ln
$37k Oysterflex 126519ln
$42k full pm 126508/09

About $5k for each step. the black dial SS daytona is the best of the bunch in my opinion, the new dial sets it off and coincidentally was the ‘cheapest’. It’s just so perfect on the new model. I had originally thought white too, with all the hype, but the black is just superior on this model. Need to see in person to fully appreciate

Honestly the best two to me were the SS black and the WG ‘baby lemans’ but it was more high 40s, not $42k. I couldn’t justify $20k more. That practically paid for my SkyD

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Daytona king

The pikachu is better than a SS panda. Especially if you are paying about the same price. Who knows what the prices will be in 2 years. I would say this though. The OF pikachu imo is harder to get than a SS panda. I know a lot of collectors who want the pikachu and got the panda and are still waiting for the OF pikachu.

On wearability and comfort on the wrist nothing beats the OF Daytona.

This is just a 126xxx panda vs pikachu discussion on my side. The other OF are not as strong in the market if you value that aspect. For me I don’t care about that because I wear my watches. Is it nice to know my money is safe? Yes. If I wear for a few years and If im hard up lose a few grand, I’m ok with that. I doubt that will happen but if it did it would be ok. Who knows the SS panda might go down to 20k in 2 years. Watches are meant to be worn. Not investments unless you have a meteorite Daytona or a Lemans/ vintage.

You also state you think you are getting other watches in the next few years. Nothing is given. If you have a strong relationship those watches should be wait listed in months not years. Don’t count on a watch promised to you in 2 years to fund a Daytona in 2 years. That’s not really how the watch market works. 1 in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.
Good luck.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A couple of counterpoints. I got a Pikachu way before a Panda.

I think SS Daytona wears better than OF PM Daytonas based on direct experience. And SS Daytona goes with far more things.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Daytona king]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

A couple of counterpoints. I got a Pikachu way before a Panda.

I think SS Daytona wears better than OF PM Daytonas based on direct experience. And SS Daytona goes with far more things.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

When did you get your OF Daytona? Is it a 126518? I personally love the full black sub dials and the black rubber bracelet and the glide lock. From my experience and speaking with others the OF pikachu is a unicorn. There just isn’t many that come out. Case in point look at the incomings. Way more SS panda incomings compared to the pikachu OF.

So would you rather the panda at $32k then the pikachu OF at $32k?

I paid $32k for my pikachu. If I had to pay 32k for a panda that day wouldn’t happen. As the OPs question, he said get a OF Daytona at retail or panda at grey market prices. No way would I pay $32k for a panda. I wouldn’t pay $50k for a pikachu either. But if I had 32k to spend and I could get the pikachu at retail for me that’s the choice. Everyone has their own favorites. The OF is the sweet spot in the Daytona range imo. I used to be in the never OF camp too. But with the price difference being now 10k beteeen the OF and the full gold it makes more sense. You are basically paying 10k for 10 links. And I personally like the look of the OF with the ceramic bezel to the full gold.

If be curious what the other members would say was the harder watch to get at retail that own both. The panda or the pikachu. I think the sampling may be small though as in who specifically owns both in the exact configurations we are talking about.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Halifax Daytona UK]

The Panda is iconic , yes the grey prices are high but we’re significantly higher a couple of years ago. This watch is the harder than the picachu at the AD. You would get the picachu with “additional spend” of less than €30k , the panda you would need ‘additional spend’ in excess of €100k.
The panda is iconic , although I prefer the black dial but I’m biased

[sigma089]

Thanks guys, some really helpful insights. Please keep your insights coming.

[Daytona king]

Originally Posted by Halifax Daytona UK

The Panda is iconic , yes the grey prices are high but we’re significantly higher a couple of years ago. This watch is the harder than the picachu at the AD. You would get the picachu with “additional spend” of less than €30k , the panda you would need ‘additional spend’ in excess of €100k.
The panda is iconic , although I prefer the black dial but I’m biased

I know the full gold is easier but the OF is more difficult. If you look at the second hand market the OF is about the same price sometimes even more then the full gold version. My experience has been different. But I’m sure the demand for the 126518 pikachu is a lot lower than a SS panda. To me the best value at the moment if we are talking grey market is the black 116500. I’ve seen some nice examples around 7k over retail. Good deals can be had on the 116500 panda too.

The retail for a pikachu is 32k the secondary market is over 50k. So safe to say $18k over retail. If all it took was $30k spend to get one that would be a heck of a value proposition considering the panda is $15k retail and 32k secondary so about $17k over retail and you would need over “100k spend” but less then “30k spend for the pikachu.

It really comes down to this. If you have $32k to spend on a watch get what you like. At that price point you could even get other brands like a AP15500 or add a little more and get a used DD40.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bmwsubmariner]

I’m in a similar position on what to get.

I’ve wanted the SS model to start with, the jump between SS gray market pricing and AD Oyster Flex is still big and I prefer a bracelet over a rubber strap. Due to that, I plan to pay the Gray premium to get a SS Daytona.

[brandrea]

If it were me, I’d wait to get all those other watches first and enjoy them a while

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by edyu

Beautiful watch and great picture.

Thanks!

[ryanbush]

I had the same predicament, ended up selling a Panda 116 that I bought grey to fund a WG OF from an AD.

They are two different watches, but I have no regrets at all.

Personally I would go with WG, I think it will hold it's value while the Panda will go as low as $24-25k once more of them get out there, and you build a relationship with an AD that might possibly get you one at retail down the road.

[Bambooshoot]

Originally Posted by PenDelicate

Right now on Chrono24, Certified and from professional dealer in Europe:

Cheapest 126500: $31,112
Cheapest OF Daytona: $39,408
Cheapest full-gold Daytona: $35,876

Full-gold blows the other two out of the water for value.

Couldn't agree more. Try on a full gold one and I think your mind will be made up! Whatever you choose, good luck and enjoy!

[edyu]

If I were to get WG Daytona I'd get the full bracelet one because I think it just has the classic look that the OF one lacks. I'd know as I turned down the OF one twice. But of course the OF is a beautiful too. I just found the weight distribution of OF ones to be too head heavy on my wrist if it makes sense.