ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
Today, 05:18 AM | #1 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2014
Real Name: Ben
Location: Valley of the Sun
Watch: 126331 126610 3861
Posts: 3,245
|
Market is Softening
Market Update - Update is 10/1
The price of pre-owned Rolex watches has been falling, with the WatchCharts Rolex index dropping 31% since its peak in March 2022. The Bloomberg Rolex Market Index has also fallen 40%. Increased inventory The number of new in-box Rolexes for sale on Chrono24 has doubled since mid-2022. This is due to lower sales, as both listed and sold volumes have fallen. Factors contributing to the decline Some factors that may be contributing to the decline include a sluggish economy, rising interest rates, and subdued consumer spending. Buyer-friendly climate The market is currently more buyer-friendly, with some Rolex models available for less than retail price. |
Today, 05:21 AM | #2 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: US
Posts: 4,102
|
Good to know!
|
Today, 05:24 AM | #3 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 77,025
|
I thought interest rates are coming down
|
Today, 05:25 AM | #4 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2014
Real Name: Ben
Location: Valley of the Sun
Watch: 126331 126610 3861
Posts: 3,245
|
Buying time is approaching, gents...pun intended....
|
Today, 05:30 AM | #5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2024
Location: LA
Posts: 25
|
I think the blind-hype days of DJs selling for 40% over list are coming to an end. Even Subs are approaching MSRP though the Daytona and GMT prices are still holding steady. Someone recently posted about how Batgirl premiums are coming down but I'm not seeing a ton of downward movement in the last few months here in the US.
Had a laugh with a friend recently over how he bought a two-tone explorer from an AD in 2022, wore it for 6 months everyday and then sold it at a profit. In a lot of ways, the market peak was better for those looking to establish purchase history as they could buy literally any model and sell it at a profit. Hopefully things get better from here but I don't think the market is much better off than where it's been on average in the last year for the SS sports models (black Sub aside). |
Today, 05:38 AM | #6 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: .
Posts: 374
|
There is also the fact that Rolex produces around 1.2 million watches a year which is quite alot for a luxury brand, production has increased by 25% prior to covid.
In addition flippers have become almost extinct with the market softening, and hot pieces are now offered to vip clients with strong profile and purchase history. What needs to be seen what marketing strategy Rolex will apply as either wait lists will mostly disappear and AD cases will be filled again with most models or Rolex might try to come with something new to reignite hype, the next 12 months will be crucial. There is also the fact that with market softening Rolex CPO will disappear soon |
Today, 05:39 AM | #7 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 23
|
The update highlights a significant correction in the Rolex pre-owned market, showing a decline of up to 40% in the Bloomberg Rolex Market Index since its March 2022 peak. The increased inventory, especially on platforms like Chrono24, where the number of new in-box Rolexes has doubled, reflects slower sales and decreased demand. Contributing factors such as a sluggish economy, rising interest rates, and reduced consumer spending have created a more buyer-friendly environment, where some models are now selling below retail price.
|
Today, 05:53 AM | #8 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2022
Location: Budapest, HU
Watch: 17000B, B+W
Posts: 2,258
|
"The HYPE is gone, the song is over
Thought I'd something more to say" |
Today, 05:57 AM | #9 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Real Name: Carlos.
Location: NNJ - MDE
Watch: = Want them all.
Posts: 3,627
|
Dang! Now I'm going to have to hold on to all these "investment" watches I purchased not long ago. Wife is going to be pissed off. Can't lock in the losses.
__________________
| Breguet | Cartier | Casio | Hublot | Omega | Oris | Rolex | Seiko | |
Today, 06:35 AM | #10 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 11,146
|
I am not seeing much change at the ADs I know. Still nothing for sale with every watch coming in pre-sold. With the used market softening to where a newish complete watch can be bought at list or just even below, that is the way to go to avoid the wait and uncertainty at ADs.
|
Today, 06:47 AM | #11 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: USA
Watch: Lots
Posts: 4,563
|
As we knew it would! The bubble is deflating and the IG crowd and speculators can move on to something else.
My favorite AD is now jam packed with “exhibition” pieces with more to come behind those. Great for us true fans of the brand and of watches. Bad news for the hype sheep
__________________
DSSD is the king of all Rolex |
Today, 06:59 AM | #12 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: The Ice House
Watch: Ingersoll Mickey
Posts: 3,293
|
|
Today, 07:14 AM | #13 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2022
Location: Maryland
Watch: Rolex GMT-MasterII
Posts: 78
|
Thanks for the update! It’s interesting to see the significant decline in pre-owned Rolex prices, especially with the WatchCharts index down 31% and the Bloomberg index dropping 40%. The increase in inventory on Chrono24 suggests that many collectors are feeling the pressure from lower demand.
The current economic factors like rising interest rates and subdued consumer spending certainly play a role. It’s a buyer-friendly climate, which could be a great opportunity for those looking to add to their collections or snag a model below retail. It’ll be intriguing to see how the market evolves in the coming months! |
Today, 07:19 AM | #14 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Miami
Watch: me lose count.
Posts: 5,753
|
What’s that saying again? “All bad things must come to an end”?
Can someone tell the grey dealers to also hammer down the 5980 rose?
__________________
♛ 116689 ♛ 218206 Roman ♛ 116500LN Blk ♛ 116500LN Wht ♛ Sky Dweller 326934-003 ♛ 126710BLRO - ♛ 16520 ♛ 16523 ♛ 16610 ♛ 5513 Birth Year - ✠ Patek Philippe 5980/1A-001 - AP 26331ST Panda - Panerai Bronzo 671 & 111, Ω Speedmaster 1957 Broad Arrow, Daniel Roth Endurer Chronosprint, Cartier Santos XL - Montblanc TimeWalker Chrono 41 |
Today, 08:33 AM | #15 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2019
Real Name: Vic
Location: Spain
Watch: SD43
Posts: 6,161
|
Makes no difference to me, for all intends and purposes. The day I can walk out with any watch (bar the Daytona), then maybe things will have changed.
|
Today, 09:45 AM | #16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Pittsburgh
Watch: 126710BLNR Jubilee
Posts: 7,019
|
It’s over, it has been a great ride! Well done all.
__________________
126710 BLNR Jubilee |
Today, 10:07 AM | #17 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Real Name: Tom
Location: Dfw
Watch: GMT II Pepsi
Posts: 57
|
I just paid 21 for a Pepsi. Shopped it around and really tried hard to get one for less.
Agree economy is bad, but not rolex economy..l |
Today, 10:39 AM | #18 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2022
Location: Cali
Posts: 1,920
|
“What goes up, must come down.”
|
Today, 10:46 AM | #19 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Real Name: Tom
Location: Dfw
Watch: GMT II Pepsi
Posts: 57
|
|
Today, 11:06 AM | #20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: Planet Earth
Posts: 461
|
Well....its not as simple as that.
Grey market prices are still NOT budging. Gmt, sub, daytona are still holding and fetching premiums....heck, even '23 datejust with smooth bezel are averaging $10k in grey market. What has changed is private sales. Most models are no longer fetching premiums so people who wanna buy at retail and quickly do private sales are taking heavy losses so flippers are no longer after datejusts, explorer, precious metal anymore. Grey market resellers (like the ones listed here..lol) are in overstock or '23''24 stock that they OVERPAID and now can't sell for under. Hence grey market prices are firm. I sold my LV sub to bobswatches back in '22 (lost my job back then) and they overnighted $21k for a used sub!! Now they aren't even accepting trade-ins on LV sub as grey market LV prices is now at $15k. But AD stock is definitely better ...I've seen a gradual increase of "I got the call" threads over at Reddit and even for people with no spend history. With Rolex upping production in their new factories next year, the stock is only going to get better at AD. I don't think we'll return to pre Covid but getting sports models at retail won't be like pulling a tooth with rusty pliers.
__________________
[Rolex Sub Date, Panerai GMT, Garmin Fenix 5, GShock GBD200] |
Today, 11:10 AM | #21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: Planet Earth
Posts: 461
|
Yep. I own 2 rentals in CA and despite prices stalling earlier in the year, they are still at double what I bought them for. I don't think CA real estate is dipping anytime soon...if anything, its only going up as CA is the hub of big income earners (software guys making around $300k with WFH jobs).
__________________
[Rolex Sub Date, Panerai GMT, Garmin Fenix 5, GShock GBD200] |
Today, 11:26 AM | #22 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Real Name: The Mystro ;)
Location: Central Pa.
Posts: 15,340
|
Are AD’s display cases full of DJ models yet?? Until that happens we didn’t even start to return to 2017 days. Forget what selling a Rolex fetches, it’s all about if you can walk in and actually buy a Rolex.
As enthusiast we are about buying and wearing watches and not the dump value as low end investments.
__________________
|
Today, 11:31 AM | #23 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 20,668
|
They mostly come out at night, mostly.
__________________
__________________ Love timepieces and want to become a Watchmaker? Rolex has a sensational school. www.RolexWatchmakingTrainingCenter.com/ Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
Today, 11:45 AM | #24 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Real Name: Gary
Location: USA
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 11,598
|
__________________
|
Today, 11:59 AM | #25 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2019
Real Name: Vincent
Location: 215
Watch: SS Sub
Posts: 2,282
|
The datejust shouldn't trading above msrp
|
Today, 12:09 PM | #26 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: HUTCH
Location: USA
Watch: PROBLEM
Posts: 1,355
|
Mods, please move this to that dark hole of a sub forum “watch out” where people that care can discuss.
|
Today, 12:21 PM | #27 | ||
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: California
Watch: GMT BLNR
Posts: 1,470
|
Rolex doesn't need to re-ignite hype.
Secondary market demand does not accurately gauge retail market demand. Just because a watch on secondary is selling below retail price doesn't mean anyone can just walk in and grab that one config at anytime. We're pretty far from that. Seems everyone forgot, there were almost no stainless sports watches in the case in 2019 aside from an air king or explorer 2 here and there. We also don't know what Rolex considers a healthy inventory turnover. Is that... 7 days in inventory? 30 days in inventory? 100 days in inventory? Also if anything, it can just discount like it has done for 114 years of it's 119 years of existence. These companies generally think in decades, not like regular consumers thinking about how the next 12 months is crucial for Rolex... lol. Sales have steadily grown over its 115 years of existence before the 2020-2024 hype. To forecast a 119y brand using the last 4y is extremely short sighted. Rolex CPO is not going away. Maybe they'll lower prices, offer additional warranty, there's a lot of incentives that preowned car dealers can use and Rolex has yet to market and use any of those additional incentives. When ADs sell preowned Rolexes before CPO, they have pretty much always sold for higher than gray dealers, citing brick and mortar costs. Quote:
Quote:
|
||
Today, 06:36 PM | #28 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2024
Location: Bahrain
Posts: 67
|
I still believe that the new watches (directly from ADs and boutiques) will remain low and Rolex will push customers to buy their CPO pieces else go for a brand new Tudor.
Rolex is going up in terms of branding, pricing and customer target. |
Today, 06:49 PM | #29 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
Watch: SD43
Posts: 3,271
|
|
Today, 06:55 PM | #30 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2024
Location: United Kingdom
Watch: Rolex DateJust 41
Posts: 69
|
Quote:
There's an obvious positive correlation between MSRP/Grey spread and AD availability. Luxury watches that are available on a 'click-to-buy' or routine 'walk-in' basis have a resale value that is typically 30% or more below new. |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 12 (8 members and 4 guests) | |
chris007 , Will866 , stijn , miska , Frog , MechMovement , MangoTree1 , Reinhard in SA |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.