Market is Softening

[John Doyle]

Originally Posted by Porscheconvert

I just paid 21 for a Pepsi. Shopped it around and really tried hard to get one for less.

Agree economy is bad, but not rolex economy..l

So you basically just lost roughly 8k USD - not the end of the world if you like the watch.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Market Update - Update is 10/1

The price of pre-owned Rolex watches has been falling, with the WatchCharts Rolex index dropping 31% since its peak in March 2022. The Bloomberg Rolex Market Index has also fallen 40%.

It's a start.

[1st amg]

I have a feeling with the next few rounds of interest rate cuts to come, the luxury market including watches and cars will reverse this trend. Money is becoming cheaper and that's what triggered the massive increases in the first place.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by 1st amg

I have a feeling with the next few rounds of interest rate cuts to come, the luxury market including watches and cars will reverse this trend. Money is becoming cheaper and that's what triggered the massive increases in the first place.

I'd agree with the caveat that nothing like ZIRP appears to be on the horizon, so the deeply abnormal days are unlikely to return.

[Manamana]

ChronoTracker app on Apple Store tracks actual Insta action sales/no sale in Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Arabian Gulf. Very interesting results. 3 days trial will give you access to recent results.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by John Doyle

So you basically just lost roughly 8k USD - not the end of the world if you like the watch.

lol you’re crazy if you think Pepsi is going to be retail in the next 5 years. But sure, wishful thinking. And that’s before possible price increases.

Pepsi was trading at $18 BEFORE COVID craze, so now guys like you are of the opinion that it’s going to be BETTER than pre-COVID prices now?

I want some of what you all are smoking please it’s just completely non-sensical


I’m strongly of the opinion that a lot of people who have complained about the high prices, the price is NEVER going to be good enough, even at retail, and you’ll always be on the sidelines. Prices are at a good spot right now in my opinion, some models upwards of 50% off covid highs and stabilized a bit.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

lol you’re crazy if you think Pepsi is going to be retail in the next 5 years. But sure, wishful thinking. And that’s before possible price increases.

Pepsi was trading at $18 BEFORE COVID craze, so now guys like you are of the opinion that it’s going to be BETTER than pre-COVID prices now?

I want some of what you all are smoking please it’s just completely non-sensical


I’m strongly of the opinion that a lot of people who have complained about the high prices, the price is NEVER going to be good enough, even at retail, and you’ll always be on the sidelines. Prices are at a good spot right now in my opinion, some models upwards of 50% off covid highs and stabilized a bit.

yup lol it's basic psychology and applies to everything. everyone always wants a crash then the crash comes and it's either not good enough or they're too afraid

people have been crying for prices to go back to retail since 2020 but at the same time msrp has gone up a lot since then so naturally when retail prices finally come now everyone wants discounts because it's still much higher than pre covid

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by TheVision

Well....its not as simple as that.

Grey market prices are still NOT budging. Gmt, sub, daytona are still holding and fetching premiums....heck, even '23 datejust with smooth bezel are averaging $10k in grey market.

What has changed is private sales. Most models are no longer fetching premiums so people who wanna buy at retail and quickly do private sales are taking heavy losses so flippers are no longer after datejusts, explorer, precious metal anymore.

Grey market resellers (like the ones listed here..lol) are in overstock or '23''24 stock that they OVERPAID and now can't sell for under. Hence grey market prices are firm.

I sold my LV sub to bobswatches back in '22 (lost my job back then) and they overnighted $21k for a used sub!! Now they aren't even accepting trade-ins on LV sub as grey market LV prices is now at $15k.

But AD stock is definitely better ...I've seen a gradual increase of "I got the call" threads over at Reddit and even for people with no spend history.

With Rolex upping production in their new factories next year, the stock is only going to get better at AD. I don't think we'll return to pre Covid but getting sports models at retail won't be like pulling a tooth with rusty pliers.

This is a really good post. I will disagree about grey market pricing. While I agree that most grey dealers are currently sitting on a lot of inventory that they are under water on, at some point that “standing firm” comes to an end. Many grey dealers (like many businesses in any industry) have real money tied up in inventory. Maybe it’s private equity, maybe it’s a line of credit, but at some point they need to churn inventory, even if it means a loss (see the used car market).

I think your Bobs watches scenario says A LOT. The ride is over.

Originally Posted by TheVision

Yep. I own 2 rentals in CA and despite prices stalling earlier in the year, they are still at double what I bought them for. I don't think CA real estate is dipping anytime soon...if anything, its only going up as CA is the hub of big income earners (software guys making around $300k with WFH jobs).

Not to make this about RE, but I don’t know how you make money on rentals in many parts of California. Also, $300,000 is certainly not a big income earner in the areas I’m thinking about. If you’re in the tech areas, 300,000 and you’re eating Ramen noodles.

Originally Posted by SLWoodster

Rolex doesn't need to re-ignite hype.

Secondary market demand does not accurately gauge retail market demand. Just because a watch on secondary is selling below retail price doesn't mean anyone can just walk in and grab that one config at anytime. We're pretty far from that. Seems everyone forgot, there were almost no stainless sports watches in the case in 2019 aside from an air king or explorer 2 here and there. We also don't know what Rolex considers a healthy inventory turnover. Is that... 7 days in inventory? 30 days in inventory? 100 days in inventory? Also if anything, it can just discount like it has done for 114 years of it's 119 years of existence. These companies generally think in decades, not like regular consumers thinking about how the next 12 months is crucial for Rolex... lol. Sales have steadily grown over its 115 years of existence before the 2020-2024 hype. To forecast a 119y brand using the last 4y is extremely short sighted.



This is happening in pretty much all collectible markets where the mass market stuff that people were gobbling up during covid have been dropping. This is also the time to re-evaluate what an "investment watch" actually is. Actually rare watches are still breaking records. The upcoming November auctions will show the Rainbow daytona breaking records. In 2023. That milgauss with bezel, platinum yachtmaster, and daytona gemset 6290 were purchased for over $3m. Marlon Brandon's GMT came back up for auction. It quadrupled in price in 4 years.

To the contrary of what you posted, I think the secondary market has a large effect on a company that sells as many widgets as Rolex. On the flipside, you use very specific, one off examples, to support that the market is strong. I don’t think a watch owned by Marlon Brando selling at auction has anything to do With the state of the overall Rolex market. The secondary market dipping will absolutely turn away speculators, investors, and gray market dealers who have been gobbling them up as new. This will allow more of the average consumer who is just looking for “a watch” to walk in and purchase one at retail, thus driving down the secondary demand, and along with it the prices. Rolex has always had a very strong secondary market and has been a safe place to keep your money. I think that will certainly continue, but this ridiculous bubble of selling over retail for mass produced, still in production pieces, is gladly coming to an end in my opinion.

[AAVDB]

Definitely see this happening. Here in Holland, saw a Deep Sea and a date just steel wimbledon for sale. (and TT - Full gold) Aprox 15 pieces, so thats way more than the standard 0.

[rolph]

The combination of a sluggish economy and rising interest rates definitely seems to be impacting consumer spending, leading to a more buyer friendly climate.

[Porscheconvert]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

My condolences


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lol.

[1William]

Data is king but how you read it is also important. When we talk of the highs of the Covid times, how many watches were sold for all time highs? It is apparent that some will continue to use the high numbers of Covid as the point of reference for sales numbers now. Flawed reasoning at best, at worst it is just click bait to drive "The Sky is Falling Crowd" that loves to talk about the economy, interest rates and how we are always close to a recession/depression. What this data also fails to acknowledge is the total number of models available and the variations inside the model lineup. I assume that there are at least 100k Date Just models sold in a year in all types of variations. I would also assume that maybe 1/10th of that number produced are Daytona's/Pepsi's and any other desirable model. Without being able to go deep into actual sales figures from most if not all points of sale and production numbers we are at some point just speculating. Has the market softened since the highs, absolutely. Are less desirable, more high production models selling for less in the secondary market, yes. But you are still not getting the desirable models from AD's on a regular basis and the secondary market supports the prices that they can get. As far as paying 21k for a Pepsi, good for the member who bought it at the best price he was comfortable with. Great watch and value at the market price. Will he lose money on it? Maybe, if he sales right away but give it a few years and he may make money if he sales. If the model is discontinued then he will make more. But he has the watch he wants and can wear and enjoy it now. Good for him.

[Mozzchops]

I think it's all going to end in tears for Rolex. I bought a YM white gold 14 months ago, retail. I like the watch (but nowhere near as comfortable as a GMT on jubilee) . I was looking at getting a full gold GMT and asked for a PX price. 17k. 30% drop in a year is unsustainable for any business.

Add to this that in the UK the AD's treat you like sh*t and it all adds up to a big mess. They need to shift big pieces, can't, so where does it all end ?

Who knows. I'm just looking to get back to normality. I got a batgirl retail no spend history.

Don't be fooled, AD's have LOTS of SS in stock. They have just been able to restrict supply.

The party is over...

[Tim Plains]

I don't think the downward trajectory will continue for long. Inflation here in Canada was 1.6% last month, interest rates are expected to drop again by a half point soon, if interest keeps dropping and people have spare cash again, market prices will probably increase.

Me, personally, I want values to drop.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

I don't think the downward trajectory will continue for long. Inflation here in Canada was 1.6% last month, interest rates are expected to drop again by a half point soon, if interest keeps dropping and people have spare cash again, market prices will probably increase.

Me, personally, I want values to drop.

I didn’t realize you’re Canadian

I tend to think you’re right to a point.

I’ll add … that when I bought a Snoopy, I went gray and paid about $5k over retail. It didn’t fuss me because I figured if I had to wait 5 years to get one, the regular retail price would probably be close to what I had to pay in todays dollars.

Bottom line, you either wait to buy at retail or you pay what you’re comfortable with on the secondary market.

[CH69]

The current (post covid) grey market pricing where one can make a profit by selling a used watch is abnormal and never meant to be sustainable. My definition of Rolex price dropping is measuring it at ADs when discounts are starting to be offered again…although I am not sure if this will happen anytime soon. My ADs tell me that they still have a lot of backlog orders to be fulfilled.