Steelman argument for the Cubitus

[EazyE]

Cubitus is getting a lot of hate because it feels like cheap design thinking. I'm interested to get feedback on a different perspective:

We know that nautilus demand far outstrips the supply with no end in sight. That imbalance turns away new customers, makes existing customers unhappy, and distracts from other watches. This is a problem.

The options to solve the problem are:
1. Increasing the supply of the nautilus. TS said he doesn't want to be the nautilus company, so this won't do.
2. Reduce demand directly. I'm not sure how to do this.
3. Substitution: redirect some of the the demand to another watch.

Cubitus is a substitute. If even 20% of customers seeking a nautilus are okay with the cubitus, that will:
– Create space for new customers
– Serve collectors who won't be allocated a nautilus

The cubitus also has the same bracelet as the nautilus. That will make the nautilus less special.

All of these have the effect of reducing demand for the nautilus.

Finally, look at the code 11.59. There are few AP customers purely interested in the code; It is seen as the royal oak stepping stone. AP took a huge design risk, and it seems that is not paying off. Patek is taking the safer route to solve the problem by designing a watch they know at least some customers will be happy with.

The Cubitus makes sense when you start with this problem and work backwards. IMO its a solid business decision made for the benefit of customers


...

Or maybe this is all cognitive dissonance because I've sunk so much money into the brand

[Vasco]

It's an interesting and constructive take :)

I would say that this variation on the Nautilus theme might not solve the problem of overshadowing the traditional models.

But I wonder if Patek didn't have to change their mind because the market has quickly evolved towards metallic, sporty watches now and that he had to rethink the traditional/sporty ratio...

They kept the Gondolo very long until very recently, but it disappeared.

Vacheron's Harmony line was a catastrophy (in terms of sales) and I don't think the 1972 sold well either, or the Toledo, or the Quai de l'isle. Maybe the Santos did.

Aside of round watches, the traditional field doesn't seem to thrive. AP had the opposite, the Jules Audemars didn't sell very well in the 2000's/2010's and it was a RO brand. But they tried bringing back round models next to the RO. Hard to achieve (I find the 11.59 interesting, especially the case).

Patek is still appreciated for the round models (technical mastery and also aesthetically) but the sporty/metallic watches are taking more and more room in the catalogue (read "in the sales figures").

I'm not sure that killing the Nautilus will solve the problem (nor I think that it's Patek's intention) and the Cubitus is more of a niche model than a new main line-up.

They saw the introduction of square watches lately and maybe thought this could be something to explore.

[jgottsman11]

My take is that it's just a huge miss. TS always talked of making something more affordable for the entry level collector of Patek. If this watch was say 38mm, then great that would be a nice size for this square design. but this thing is just a complete mess of a model.

[enthusiast]

Originally Posted by EazyE

Cubitus is getting a lot of hate because it feels like cheap design thinking.

By all means: It is cheap design thinking.

What makes it so much worse is years and years of TS building suspense that something different is in the works and that he does not want PP to be a Nautilus company.

He wanted to introduce an affordable watch for new customers.

What did PP deliver at the end of the day? After a lot of marketing BS, we got a more expensive watch with the dial of the Nautilus, the bracelet of the Nautilus and a case that even resembles the design language of the Nautilus.

Originally Posted by EazyE

Or maybe this is all cognitive dissonance because I've sunk so much money into the brand

Regretfully, I am in the same boat as you are.

In addition, I fell for their marketing promises when it comes to watch repairs and restaurations.

I sincerely believe that this release is a huge reputation loss for PP which will sooner or later be reflected in the market prices of their watches.

[Aboutderntime]

Reading some of the TS interviews, Patek allocates 40% of their collection to sport pieces. This won’t change with the introduction of the Cubitus. Rather, production of the and Aquanaut will decrease to accommodate this new family of watches.

[enthusiast]

Originally Posted by EazyE

The options to solve the problem are:
1. Increasing the supply of the nautilus. TS said he doesn't want to be the nautilus company, so this won't do.
2. Reduce demand directly. I'm not sure how to do this.
3. Substitution: redirect some of the the demand to another watch.

4. Increase the price of the Nautilus line.
5. Make the Nautilus an item that is only allocated to buyers that have spent x amount with the brand.
6. Make the Nautilus an item that is only sold by PP itself (which would have allowed to conceal a price increase or a minimum spend to some extent).

I would approach this problem differently. I would try to figure out why is the Nautilus so coveted?

Is it for its design? For its (lack of) availability? For the brand that produces it? For the fact that people regard it as a status symbol or an investment?

My humble take is that it is a combination of all of the above, but the most appealing aspect is most likely not its design.

Watches were a solid investment during a time of low (or non-existing) interest rates. Also, a group of people were happy to spend the money they accumulated with enormous crypto gains on watches.

This market situation changed drastically overnight with the beginning of the war in Ukraine and I am curious how supply and demand for watches will continue to develop.

[EazyE]

Originally Posted by Vasco

It's an interesting and constructive take :)

I would say that this variation on the Nautilus theme might not solve the problem of overshadowing the traditional models.

But I wonder if Patek didn't have to change their mind because the market has quickly evolved towards metallic, sporty watches now and that he had to rethink the traditional/sporty ratio...

They kept the Gondolo very long until very recently, but it disappeared.

Vacheron's Harmony line was a catastrophy (in terms of sales) and I don't think the 1972 sold well either, or the Toledo, or the Quai de l'isle. Maybe the Santos did.

Aside of round watches, the traditional field doesn't seem to thrive. AP had the opposite, the Jules Audemars didn't sell very well in the 2000's/2010's and it was a RO brand. But they tried bringing back round models next to the RO. Hard to achieve (I find the 11.59 interesting, especially the case).

Patek is still appreciated for the round models (technical mastery and also aesthetically) but the sporty/metallic watches are taking more and more room in the catalogue (read "in the sales figures").

I'm not sure that killing the Nautilus will solve the problem (nor I think that it's Patek's intention) and the Cubitus is more of a niche model than a new main line-up.

They saw the introduction of square watches lately and maybe thought this could be something to explore.



This is an interesting history. Another reasonable take is that Patek wanted to experiment with square watches, saw all the bodies from other brand design explorations, and decided not to venture far off the farm. If that’s the case, they deserve the hate



Originally Posted by jgottsman11

If this watch was say 38mm, then great that would be a nice size for this square design. but this thing is just a complete mess of a model.

+100 to this. I'm still struggling to understand the size

Originally Posted by Aboutderntime

Reading some of the TS interviews, Patek allocates 40% of their collection to sport pieces. This won’t change with the introduction of the Cubitus. Rather, production of the and Aquanaut will decrease to accommodate this new family of watches.

I hadn’t read that. Certainly throws a wrench in my theory if they’ll keep sports watch production the same

Originally Posted by enthusiast

4. Increase the price of the Nautilus line.
5. Make the Nautilus an item that is only allocated to buyers that have spent x amount with the brand.
6. Make the Nautilus an item that is only sold by PP itself (which would have allowed to conceal a price increase or a minimum spend to some extent).

I would approach this problem differently. I would try to figure out why is the Nautilus so coveted?

Is it for its design? For its (lack of) availability? For the brand that produces it? For the fact that people regard it as a status symbol or an investment?

My humble take is that it is a combination of all of the above, but the most appealing aspect is most likely not its design.

Watches were a solid investment during a time of low (or non-existing) interest rates. Also, a group of people were happy to spend the money they accumulated with enormous crypto gains on watches.

This market situation changed drastically overnight with the beginning of the war in Ukraine and I am curious how supply and demand for watches will continue to develop.

I guess (4) is how you directly reduce demand. Does the 5811 have less demand than the 5711 did?

Agree the hype makes the design desirable and not the other way around.

[enjoythemusic]

Whatever the case, the amount of PR and exposure this release is receiving is far more than ANY other as best i can recall. VERY well played! Seriously, this is quite an accomplishment. Bravo PP!

Good. Bad. What matters is **they are** being talked about.
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No one is really talking about Ulysses Nardin.