Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Modiferous

Prices are actually going up, I sold two of the watches I had for sale (I am a collector not a dealer) for close to asking.

What watches and what price did they go for?

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Modiferous

Prices are actually going up, I sold two of the watches I had for sale (I am a collector not a dealer) for close to asking.

I have seen the same. People keep quoting "prices are reverting to the mean". What mean? Before all of this a boutique would beg you to buy a 15400 let alone the 37mm ones. The "mean" before all of this was 30% below retail for a 41mm RO. That will never happen again. The business model has fundamentally changed, and demand has fundamentally changed. These will never go that low again because you still can't walk into a boutique and just get one within 6 months even as a brand new customer. Only if we go back to these watches becoming easy to get from the boutiques will it go below.

There was massive over selling and massive paranoid from investors. Now things have stabilized and trading has resumed, and buying has begun to resume again. I said this on page like 2 of this thread. They won't go back to 4x retail but they will go back up ease of access from the boutiques do not change.

[amh]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I have seen the same. People keep quoting "prices are reverting to the mean". What mean? Before all of this a boutique would beg you to buy a 15400 let alone the 37mm ones. The "mean" before all of this was 30% below retail for a 41mm RO. That will never happen again. The business model has fundamentally changed, and demand has fundamentally changed. These will never go that low again because you still can't walk into a boutique and just get one within 6 months even as a brand new customer. Only if we go back to these watches becoming easy to get from the boutiques will it go below.

There was massive over selling and massive paranoid from investors. Now things have stabilized and trading has resumed, and buying has begun to resume again. I said this on page like 2 of this thread. They won't go back to 4x retail but they will go back up ease of access from the boutiques do not change.

This is my observation as well. I suspect people just don't want to believe it.

[psm11]

Care to provide any examples?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I have seen the same. People keep quoting "prices are reverting to the mean". What mean? Before all of this a boutique would beg you to buy a 15400 let alone the 37mm ones. The "mean" before all of this was 30% below retail for a 41mm RO. That will never happen again. The business model has fundamentally changed, and demand has fundamentally changed. These will never go that low again because you still can't walk into a boutique and just get one within 6 months even as a brand new customer. Only if we go back to these watches becoming easy to get from the boutiques will it go below.

There was massive over selling and massive paranoid from investors. Now things have stabilized and trading has resumed, and buying has begun to resume again. I said this on page like 2 of this thread. They won't go back to 4x retail but they will go back up ease of access from the boutiques do not change.

U keep making claims without any data or supporting evidence… so according to your own standard you’re not saying much.

[psm11]

I am again curious why some on here are so passionate about prices going back up? How does that make the hobby enjoyable?

Let's face it, the hobby has been sh** the last 2 years. Why would anyone want it to go back to anything close to that?

[ButtButt]

Originally Posted by psm11

I am again curious why some on here are so passionate about prices going back up? How does that make the hobby enjoyable?

Let's face it, the hobby has been sh** the last 2 years. Why would anyone want it to go back to anything close to that?

Probably because they already have their "in" and don't care how hard it is for new people to get into the hobby. Values going up = their watches are worth more = they're happy if they ever have to sell. That or they're watch dealers.

[fsprow]

It's just one transaction and says nothing about overall trends, but I called a dealer I have done business with before and sold a 15202 Audemars today for what I thought was a very fair price. He said that business was still down significantly but activity was improving.

[amh]

Originally Posted by psm11

Care to provide any examples?

Sure, full list of commonly available grey and private party listings. These are for the lowest 126710BLNR available, new or used. (Full set BNIB with partial stickers will be about 1-2k higher than these.)

High res:
https://i.imgur.com/AavfQr3.jpg

[psm11]

Originally Posted by amh

Sure, full list of commonly available grey and private party listings. These are for the lowest 126710BLNR available, new or used. (Full set BNIB with partial stickers will be about 1-2k higher than these.)

High res:
https://i.imgur.com/AavfQr3.jpg

Is week 21 this week?

And are all these unsold or are these the sold prices?

Awesome chart BTW!

[amh]

Originally Posted by psm11

Is week 21 this week?

And are all these unsold or are these the sold prices?

Awesome chart BTW!

This week is "6"
https://www.epochconverter.com/weeks/2023

Older 2022 data at the top, newest at the bottom.

They're all asking prices, no one posts sold prices (even on Moda.) I suspect one could subtract $500-1k and get pretty close.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by amh

Sure, full list of commonly available grey and private party listings. These are for the lowest 126710BLNR available, new or used. (Full set BNIB with partial stickers will be about 1-2k higher than these.)

High res:
https://i.imgur.com/AavfQr3.jpg

Thanks. You are just tracking asking prices though right? To make a conclusion on market price, you’d need to understand the price at which pieces actually trade hands. Particularly since the secondary market is ripe for manipulation (as we’ve seen in pricing power).

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by psm11

Is week 21 this week?

And are all these unsold or are these the sold prices?

Awesome chart BTW!

We are in week 6/52 for 2023.

Good data indeed.

[walds11]

Originally Posted by Modiferous

Prices are actually going up, I sold two of the watches I had for sale (I am a collector not a dealer) for close to asking.

It’s happening

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It's just one transaction and says nothing about overall trends, but I called a dealer I have done business with before and sold a 15202 Audemars today for what I thought was a very fair price. He said that business was still down significantly but activity was improving.

Well mine is still unsold and it’s been the cheapest on the market (UK) for over three months so go figure.


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[psm11]

I'd add that last week (when I was considering picking up a 26331) when I brought in my 2019 full set batgirl to sell/trade the grey (brick and mortar in bev hills) would only offer me $15k for it. I then tried another jeweler who offered $14.5.

This was a week ago and it is one of the ones that is supposedly creeping up.

Just offering my recent experience.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by amh

Sure, full list of commonly available grey and private party listings. These are for the lowest 126710BLNR available, new or used. (Full set BNIB with partial stickers will be about 1-2k higher than these.)

High res:
https://i.imgur.com/AavfQr3.jpg

Do you keep a running list of all references? Just curious

[amh]

Originally Posted by psm11

I'd add that last week (when I was considering picking up a 26331) when I brought in my 2019 full set batgirl to sell/trade the grey (brick and mortar in bev hills) would only offer me $15k for it. I then tried another jeweler who offered $14.5.

This was a week ago and it is one of the ones that is supposedly creeping up.

Just offering my recent experience.

Don't you think that's a great offer? That's on a 10k watch.

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Do you keep a running list of all references? Just curious

I wish

[psm11]

Originally Posted by amh

Don't you think that's a great offer? That's on a 10k watch.



I wish

I was citing this because that's a huge delta from what some dealers are listing these for and certainly not reflective of these going back up.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by amh

I wish

Have you verified all this data is correct then or simply taking it at face value?

Not sure where you found this, but whoever had the time to create a running list monitoring prices would appear to have a vested interest (i.e. a dealer) and thus be biased. Just saying

[amh]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Have you verified all this data is correct then or simply taking it at face value?

Not sure where you found this, but whoever had the time to create a running list monitoring prices would appear to have a vested interest (i.e. a dealer) and thus be biased. Just saying

It's my own list. They're verified to the extent that you may visit the websites yourself and check. (Bob's is not really updated diligently because I don't care for their listing format and I'd never buy from Bob's anyway) Every Monday I load a set of bookmarks and scan the latest prices. During the week watches come & go but I don't put those in the sheet unless it's something extraordinary. Moda doesn't have much history since I was only recently admitted to the platform. (Moda is a fun place to lurk, it's much more of a feeding frenzy than anywhere else - well priced watches are sold in a matter of hours.)

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by amh

It's my own list. They're verified to the extent that you may visit the websites yourself and check. (Bob's is not really updated diligently because I don't care for their listing format and I'd never buy from Bob's anyway) Every Monday I load a set of bookmarks and scan the latest prices. During the week watches come & go but I don't put those in the sheet unless it's something extraordinary. Moda doesn't have much history since I was only recently admitted to the platform. (Moda is a fun place to lurk, it's much more of a feeding frenzy than anywhere else - well priced watches are sold in a matter of hours.)

I’m sorry to come across so forward, but who in their right mind (as a consumer) has the time to track these prices so closely? Many of your posts on TRF consistently talk about your terrible experience at ADs, no availability, etc., etc. If you are truly a consumer that wants a collection of a few watches why would you make this spreadsheet, and why didn’t you buy when you started seeing prices tick back up?

Your posts espousing the lack of availability at ADs and this list come off as suspect, and frankly, as a dealer who has a vested interest in all of this. Why care so deeply about secondary prices? Why not enjoy what you have and spend more time with family and friends? My guess is all the time you've spent running around to ADs and creating this list could have been allocated towards more productive use of your time (either leisurely with loved ones or working/making money so you can buy the watches you clearly follow so dearly). You probably would be far happier, but then again, everyone has the right to choose how they allocate their time.

Regardless of my thoughts, you've created a detailed list - perhaps you'd like to make one for the 5740 too ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Swiftneck]

In my area, grey prices have stabilised a bit, if you can call 2 weeks with little to no fall a stabilisation. At the same time the private listening is still dropping without any sales.

So I doubt the grey are moving many. Maybe sale is just that slow at the moment here in January, That greys choose to keep or raise their prices, which don't cost anything if you are not selling anyhow..

Sendt fra min SM-F711B med Tapatalk

[Conway]

I hope the market will rocket to the moon, I have watches to sell.
But I believe that prices will fall even more after these very minor dead cat bounces.

Like many on here I trade in various markets (as an amateur) and I like predictions and then seeing what happens. I hope everything I hold goes up, including my watches, but like I said, I don't see it happening for a couple of years.

I sold a few big ticket watches in 2022 because I suspected the market would crash, I'm so glad I did, I sold my Nautilus and Jumbo at the peak, if anyone is still holding them then I suspect it will take min 3+ years to reach that price again.

[Mathematoxic]

Have been monitoring MODA over the last month. Saw some price increases , and the last week or so has been the dumping season. Now, the sellers are seeing some resistance and prices have dropped a tiny bit from the peak of the pumping phase.
Over at the MODA WTB group, you will see multiple replies to wtb posts offering their watches.
Not going to conclude anything. Go think for yourself.
Cheers!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Conway

I hope the market will rocket to the moon, I have watches to sell.
But I believe that prices will fall even more after these very minor dead cat bounces.

Like many on here I trade in various markets (as an amateur) and I like predictions and then seeing what happens. I hope everything I hold goes up, including my watches, but like I said, I don't see it happening for a couple of years.

I sold a few big ticket watches in 2022 because I suspected the market would crash, I'm so glad I did, I sold my Nautilus and Jumbo at the peak, if anyone is still holding them then I suspect it will take min 3+ years to reach that price again.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by amh

Sure, full list of commonly available grey and private party listings. These are for the lowest 126710BLNR available, new or used. (Full set BNIB with partial stickers will be about 1-2k higher than these.)

High res:
https://i.imgur.com/AavfQr3.jpg

That's actually a very cool chart. If you look on the For Sale section (or on watch recon etc) there are tons of those models with multiple bumps. People aren't actually buying at those asking prices. It's a buyers market. These sellers can ask these prices until hey are blue in the face and it isn't going to matter.

[amh]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

I’m sorry to come across so forward, but who in their right mind (as a consumer) has the time to track these prices so closely? Many of your posts on TRF consistently talk about your terrible experience at ADs, no availability, etc., etc. If you are truly a consumer that wants a collection of a few watches why would you make this spreadsheet, and why didn’t you buy when you started seeing prices tick back up?

Your posts espousing the lack of availability at ADs and this list come off as suspect, and frankly, as a dealer who has a vested interest in all of this. Why care so deeply about secondary prices? Why not enjoy what you have and spend more time with family and friends? My guess is all the time you've spent running around to ADs and creating this list could have been allocated towards more productive use of your time (either leisurely with loved ones or working/making money so you can buy the watches you clearly follow so dearly). You probably would be far happier, but then again, everyone has the right to choose how they allocate their time.

Regardless of my thoughts, you've created a detailed list - perhaps you'd like to make one for the 5740 too ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I "Work from Home" post-covid and I'm on a computer for ~9 hours a day. I'm still making money even if I'm reading TRF
As an experiment, look at this link. Does it take much effort? Instant snapshot of the Market.
https://www.watchrecon.com/?query=12...31&brand=rolex

As for the local ADs, it's easy to see see their empty shelves over a lunch break if I happen to visit the local brick & mortar office. Believe me, no time is taken away from "friends & family."

As for buying grey, that's probably the end game. But after spending $30k on Rolex watches last year I'm biding my time. (Note: That 30k is nowhere near enough to reach "the list" for a SS sports model in this town. If it had been marked up diamonds then the safe would have opened.)

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ronricks

that's actually a very cool chart. If you look on the for sale section (or on watch recon etc) there are tons of those models with multiple bumps. People aren't actually buying at those asking prices. It's a buyers market. These sellers can ask these prices until hey are blue in the face and it isn't going to matter.

100%

[amh]

Originally Posted by psm11

I'd add that last week (when I was considering picking up a 26331) when I brought in my 2019 full set batgirl to sell/trade the grey (brick and mortar in bev hills) would only offer me $15k for it. I then tried another jeweler who offered $14.5.

This was a week ago and it is one of the ones that is supposedly creeping up.

Just offering my recent experience.

So you were offered 15k for a 4 year old watch that originally sold for $8800. That's a very solid offer and shows that no collapse took place, only a correction.