Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

U keep making claims without any data or supporting evidence… so according to your own standard you’re not saying much.

Originally Posted by psm11

Care to provide any examples?

Go look even at the video watch Eric just posted on YouTube. He says the same thing. Certain models are going back up again because you can't get them from the boutiques still.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Go look even at the video watch Eric just posted on YouTube. He says the same thing. Certain models are going back up again because you can't get them from the boutiques still.

Saw it. He has a vested interest (though I am a fan - look at how he dismissed AP lol)… still waiting on your data points. If not, then your claims are invalid per your own words

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

I am again curious why some on here are so passionate about prices going back up? How does that make the hobby enjoyable?

Let's face it, the hobby has been sh** the last 2 years. Why would anyone want it to go back to anything close to that?

Why are you so passionate about it going down?

You should get passionate when the hardest to get watches go back to being off everyone's radar. I'll get passionate when a ceramic open work becomes easy to get. 4 years ago if they released that watch no one would have give a sh**. How many regular royal oaks do you want?

[psm11]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Why are you so passionate about it going down?

You should get passionate when the hardest to get watches go back to being off everyone's radar. I'll get passionate when a ceramic open work becomes easy to get. 4 years ago if they released that watch no one would have give a sh**. How many regular royal oaks do you want?

I’m passionate (if that is even the right word) because it means I can finally afford/get the watch that I have been after for 5-6 years. One I told myself I’d get once I hit certain milestones. Except that was ruined by guys like TPG and every other back pack flipper who didn’t even know what a watch was until 2 years ago. Don’t see how wanting any of that or rooting for those ppl to disappear from the hobby is a bad thing. I’d think it’s what all true collectors would want.

I’d settle for just one (the one I have wanted for the last 5-6 years).

[psm11]

Originally Posted by amh

So you were offered 15k for a 4 year old watch that originally sold for $8800. That's a very solid offer and shows that no collapse took place, only a correction.

If that’s how you want to look at it.

I look at it as that watch was getting sold for over 20k last year and some dealers are still trying to sell them for close to that (don’t think they are having much success) so it’s a low ball offer in my mind and also shows that the market price for this watch is way under what some dealers are listing it for.

I mean who cares if it’s a crash or correction? What’s the difference? Take the 26331 at one point it was being listed for over $100k and now going for high 30s-mid 40s. That a 60-70k loss. How is that not a crash? Tell that to the guy who bought one for 100k. Or the sap who bought a panda at 50k because it was only going to go up…

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by psm11

I’m passionate (if that is even the right word) because it means I can finally afford/get the watch that I have been after for 5-6 years. One I told myself I’d get once I hit certain milestones. Except that was ruined by guys like TPG and every other back pack flipper who didn’t even know what a watch was until 2 years ago. Don’t see how wanting any of that or rooting for those ppl to disappear from the hobby is a bad thing. I’d think it’s what all true collectors would want.

I’d settle for just one (the one I have wanted for the last 5-6 years).

Which one is that?

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I have seen the same. People keep quoting "prices are reverting to the mean". What mean? Before all of this a boutique would beg you to buy a 15400 let alone the 37mm ones. The "mean" before all of this was 30% below retail for a 41mm RO. That will never happen again. The business model has fundamentally changed, and demand has fundamentally changed. These will never go that low again because you still can't walk into a boutique and just get one within 6 months even as a brand new customer. Only if we go back to these watches becoming easy to get from the boutiques will it go below.

There was massive over selling and massive paranoid from investors. Now things have stabilized and trading has resumed, and buying has begun to resume again. I said this on page like 2 of this thread. They won't go back to 4x retail but they will go back up ease of access from the boutiques do not change.

….
I agree. The phrase “reversion to the mean” only makes sense when applied to a number like the price to earnings ratio of a security on the stock market. When the price to earnings ratio gets out of historical bounds, some people believe that it will revert to within those bounds. it has no meaning for luxury products at all. My own belief (only that) is that as long as high quality goods remain in demand that longer term prices can be expected to increase.

[whiterabbit66]

Originally Posted by fsprow

….
I agree. The phrase “reversion to the mean” only makes sense when applied to a number like the price to earnings ratio of a security on the stock market. When the price to earnings ratio gets out of historical bounds, some people believe that it will revert to within those bounds. it has no meaning for a luxury products at all. My own belief (only that) is that as long as high quality goods remain in demand the longer term prices can be expected to increase.

Agree: end of the day there are more and more HNW individuals minted everyday and retail prices are climbing an average what 5% a year. Not to mention more countries are talking about wealth taxes. I would encourage a genuine real buyer to buy now on this dip if they are planning to actually own the watch forever. No different to buying into stock market, classic cars or real estate. Longterm you have to stay in the game and odds are stacked in your favor to win if you do. In the real world (not internet bragging) very very few have the skills to buy at lows and sell at highs be it watches, stocks or widgets. I would wager some on here would still not buy at retail or ever in reality.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by APWorldTour

Which one is that?

Panda 26331st

[buknoy]

Originally Posted by psm11

If that’s how you want to look at it.

I look at it as that watch was getting sold for over 20k last year and some dealers are still trying to sell them for close to that (don’t think they are having much success) so it’s a low ball offer in my mind and also shows that the market price for this watch is way under what some dealers are listing it for.

I mean who cares if it’s a crash or correction? What’s the difference? Take the 26331 at one point it was being listed for over $100k and now going for high 30s-mid 40s. That a 60-70k loss. How is that not a crash? Tell that to the guy who bought one for 100k. Or the sap who bought a panda at 50k because it was only going to go up…

It wasnt a low ball offer. 20k batgirl price has sailed. Now they selling bnib 17-18k. Since yours is used then 15k is reasonable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by whiterabbit66

Agree: end of the day there are more and more HNW individuals minted everyday and retail prices are climbing an average what 5% a year. Not to mention more countries are talking about wealth taxes. I would encourage a genuine real buyer to buy now on this dip if they are planning to actually own the watch forever. No different to buying into stock market, classic cars or real estate. Longterm you have to stay in the game and odds are stacked in your favor to win if you do. In the real world (not internet bragging) very very few have the skills to buy at lows and sell at highs be it watches, stocks or widgets. I would wager some on here would still not buy at retail or ever in reality.

Couldn’t agree more. Your last point is probably especially applicable here.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

I’m passionate (if that is even the right word) because it means I can finally afford/get the watch that I have been after for 5-6 years. One I told myself I’d get once I hit certain milestones. Except that was ruined by guys like TPG and every other back pack flipper who didn’t even know what a watch was until 2 years ago. Don’t see how wanting any of that or rooting for those ppl to disappear from the hobby is a bad thing. I’d think it’s what all true collectors would want.

I’d settle for just one (the one I have wanted for the last 5-6 years).

Ok so I'll give you an argument from the other side that still falls within what you are saying. Let's say before all this you bought a 15202 for like 18k. If I remember correctly at one point the retail was like 24k and when no one wanted it you could get it discounted from an AD to around 18-20k.

The market does crazy things and now that watch it worth 180k. You sell it. Then as we saw the market crashed because that kind of run is retarded. It was bound to come down. I am sure no one believed it would come down as hard and as fast but oh well. Assets go up like an escalator down like an elevator. But if you had sold it. Now you have 180k to spend on your hobby. You could repurchase your watch plus whatever else you wanted.

So now your 20k investment due to this insanity could have netted you 2-3 watches you would have never been able to afford otherwise.

Or if you are someone who just gets bored you can sell your watch and buy another every year if you wanted at no loss to your principal investment. This what I used to do before the insanity. Though now at least with AP you cannot because if you want desirable stuff and they see you sold anything, they won't sell you sh**. They'll sell you a code or a ROO. But 3-4 years ago they didn't care. That's honestly the only thing I hate about this insanity, besides how hard it is to get watches is now we are practically married to them. So it makes it so you pick things you really think you'll like forever basically.

[Vince_76]

26320 fullset I serial - sold for $32.99k.

Royal oaks sinking like cement shoes. Have also heard a lot of folks have been turned off by AP after all their consolidation of PoS just to sell to flippers.

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

26320 fullset I serial - sold for $32.99k.

Royal oaks sinking like cement shoes. Have also heard a lot of folks have been turned off by AP after all their consolidation of PoS just to sell to flippers.

They haven’t turned off enough, yet. Still can’t walk into a boutique and buy from stock or with a reasonable wait.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by bobernet

They haven’t turned off enough, yet. Still can’t walk into a boutique and buy from stock or with a reasonable wait.

Boutiques are busier than ever. Long way to go.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Boutiques are busier than ever. Long way to go.

Busy doing what? Nothing to sell you, little to nothing to try on… busy saying no?

We will never know just how busy or how crazy (or not crazy) demand is. If demand is down why in the world would AP let on to that? They’ll do whatever they have to to keep appearances up.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Ok so I'll give you an argument from the other side that still falls within what you are saying. Let's say before all this you bought a 15202 for like 18k. If I remember correctly at one point the retail was like 24k and when no one wanted it you could get it discounted from an AD to around 18-20k.

The market does crazy things and now that watch it worth 180k. You sell it. Then as we saw the market crashed because that kind of run is retarded. It was bound to come down. I am sure no one believed it would come down as hard and as fast but oh well. Assets go up like an escalator down like an elevator. But if you had sold it. Now you have 180k to spend on your hobby. You could repurchase your watch plus whatever else you wanted.

So now your 20k investment due to this insanity could have netted you 2-3 watches you would have never been able to afford otherwise.

Or if you are someone who just gets bored you can sell your watch and buy another every year if you wanted at no loss to your principal investment. This what I used to do before the insanity. Though now at least with AP you cannot because if you want desirable stuff and they see you sold anything, they won't sell you sh**. They'll sell you a code or a ROO. But 3-4 years ago they didn't care. That's honestly the only thing I hate about this insanity, besides how hard it is to get watches is now we are practically married to them. So it makes it so you pick things you really think you'll like forever basically.

I’m not following… you sell your watch for 180k and you can get 2-3 you wouldn’t normally have been able to afford? Are we assuming they are getting them at retail? If so, that’s the issue you can’t get them at retail.

[psm11]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nting-us-sales



Interesting… watches of Switzerland’s stock is dropping.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

I’m not following… you sell your watch for 180k and you can get 2-3 you wouldn’t normally have been able to afford? Are we assuming they are getting them at retail? If so, that’s the issue you can’t get them at retail.

Nah even at grey prices. But retail even better. Let's say you have 180k now. You could go get another 15202 and a gold RO or ROC too. Now you have 2 awesome watches. Or you could go get a 15500, a ROO, and a gold RO/ROC. Hell you could say forget AP and get a gold nautilus or RM if you wanted.

You following?

You can still get these at retail. It just takes patience and building a relationship. At the end of the day they sell to who they like regardless of what BS they say to any of us. When all the ADs lost their status, I went to a boutique. They claimed to be able to get me what I want etc....all the usual BS. I waited a year and got nothing. But they kept selling the watches I wanted to "VIPs". Who then turned around and flipped them immediately. So I went to another boutique who was more helpful.

This info to me is more useful to help people get watches rather than posting nonsense Moda sales.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Nah even at grey prices. But retail even better. Let's say you have 180k now. You could go get another 15202 and a gold RO or ROC too. Now you have 2 awesome watches. Or you could go get a 15500, a ROO, and a gold RO/ROC. Hell you could say forget AP and get a gold nautilus or RM if you wanted.

You following?

You can still get these at retail. It just takes patience and building a relationship. At the end of the day they sell to who they like regardless of what BS they say to any of us. When all the ADs lost their status, I went to a boutique. They claimed to be able to get me what I want etc....all the usual BS. I waited a year and got nothing. But they kept selling the watches I wanted to "VIPs". Who then turned around and flipped them immediately. So I went to another boutique who was more helpful.

This info to me is more useful to help people get watches rather than posting nonsense Moda sales.

Gotcha. Yeah I mean if I was in the position I’d be a happy guy.

Did you ever end up getting a watch from them? I’ve been at it over a year and two SAs and I’m lucky if I even get a response to a check in text.

[fatcows7]

https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-...ak-selfwinding

Went for £28,250 excluding fees. including fees around £30.3k

and this is an auction.

[fatcows7]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Nah even at grey prices. But retail even better. Let's say you have 180k now. You could go get another 15202 and a gold RO or ROC too. Now you have 2 awesome watches. Or you could go get a 15500, a ROO, and a gold RO/ROC. Hell you could say forget AP and get a gold nautilus or RM if you wanted.

You following?

You can still get these at retail. It just takes patience and building a relationship. At the end of the day they sell to who they like regardless of what BS they say to any of us. When all the ADs lost their status, I went to a boutique. They claimed to be able to get me what I want etc....all the usual BS. I waited a year and got nothing. But they kept selling the watches I wanted to "VIPs". Who then turned around and flipped them immediately. So I went to another boutique who was more helpful.

This info to me is more useful to help people get watches rather than posting nonsense Moda sales.

Did your boutique sell you an RO with no purchase history? Or did you have to buy an ROO / Code first? They keep telling us that you don't have to do that but it seems "encouraged" that you do so.

[amh]

Enlightening video on the current Rolex situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pQPiPVVRpo

Tips:
- Play at 1.25x speed
- He's trying to sell something at the end. Stop at that point.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by amh

Enlightening video on the current Rolex situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pQPiPVVRpo

Tips:
- Play at 1.25x speed
- He's trying to sell something at the end. Stop at that point.

Guys a known cornball. Just peddles his watch flipper manual

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Guys a known cornball. Just peddles his watch flipper manual

That guy is such a tool

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Guys a known cornball. Just peddles his watch flipper manual

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

That guy is such a tool

Exactly

Especially his douchebag commercials on how to get rich selling watches. He’s just another example of what’s wrong with our hobby.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by psm11

Gotcha. Yeah I mean if I was in the position I’d be a happy guy.

Did you ever end up getting a watch from them? I’ve been at it over a year and two SAs and I’m lucky if I even get a response to a check in text.

Yea. I also got one for a relative as well.

Originally Posted by fatcows7

Did your boutique sell you an RO with no purchase history? Or did you have to buy an ROO / Code first? They keep telling us that you don't have to do that but it seems "encouraged" that you do so.

When I switched from the AD to the boutique they wanted me to buy a ROO or Code as my purchase history was irrelevant to them. So I went to another boutique and talked to the manager and explained what happened. They said that is completely wrong and they made it right and got me what I needed.

If the boutique you are working with isn't working, talk to the manager. If the manager can't be bothered call up another boutique and talk to their manager.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by psm11

Busy doing what? Nothing to sell you, little to nothing to try on… busy saying no?

Busy with people coming in, asking about watches, getting a free water or coffee, while the SAs explain to them what the process is and get their info for setting up a profile. Also busy with customers picking up all the watches produced in APs highest output year ever.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by psm11

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nting-us-sales



Interesting… watches of Switzerland’s stock is dropping.

Their Q3 '22 net income increased by 25% YoY. A bit of a stretch to include that in the sky-is-falling narrative.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by psm11

Panda 26331st

I assume you saw the one that sold on Moda almost instantly w/ $37.5k asking (missing box, booklets and 1 link, well-worn and running +50s/day...).