Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Michael T

This vastly overstates average USA appreciation. Case Shiller’s model of same home median price sales, shows an increase of 60% from the July 2006 previous high to March of this year. If you you fortunate to purchase at the February 2012 low, your appreciation is 120%. When you calculate it on an annual IRR, it is 3.1% and 8.0% per annum, respectively.

The press loves to tell you all the success stories. My wife has been a Realtor for many years and these rates of average growth are certainly more accurate. Some areas do better, other worse.

What’s alarming are these ‘real estate will double your investment in no time!’ investment gurus on TikTok/IG now. A lot of new home buyers have absurd expectations for what their property should be worth in 10 years, because they bought in the last few and saw one of the hottest markets in I don’t know how many years. There’s most definitely a population of people who have purchased a home for 300k-$400k and 100% believe they can cash out for a million in 10 years and retire.

Don’t even get me started on what some of my coworkers and friends think their stock portfolios will look like in that same timeframe. It’s ridiculous.

Everybody has become so disillusioned, think 10% annual gain is chump change and not excellent.

[MiloDiThernan]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Milo, my friend, last time I checked this was not a political party or a sports team so the pride analogy is not really getting it for me.

But if you are truly concerned about the health of this form, you might try:

• Contributing membership dues.
  
• Writing a watch review.
  
• Or, maybe answering even a tiny percentage of the questions about the history and workings of Rolex watches that Padi has for many, many years and continues to do so.

As far as adding "colour" to the forum, I have reviewed Padi's post which you ask us to believe offends you so much you feel compelled to pontificate so passionately as to how it will be the downfall of this forum. Seriously? I must ask you, if Padi's post is is not the very definition of "colour" then what is? And if anyone is so offended by the post as to swear off the forum, well they must have led a pretty sheltered and pampered life. But I digress.

Again, if you are serious about the health of the forum there are more constructive things you can do than throw stones at those who continue to add to its value.

If not, then by all means feel free to keep quasi-lurking and bless us with your wisdom. But you might be more persuasive if you had a tad thicker skin and a just a wee bit more perspective. And were a might bit more respectful to the people who add so much to this forum.

It’s not a watch review, quite, but it’s about Rolex watches and the way Rolex cares, rather than what they’re worth. You’re right about the need to talk about Rolex without money in mind, most of the time. (And you’re right about the need for all of us to pay our membership fees. I’ve done so.)

About two years’ ago, a friend gave me a 24mm or 28mm Oyster Perpetual which had been stuck in her mother’s bedside drawer for years, ignored, asking if it was worth refurbishing. I took it to London’s WoS and asked them their opinion. They embraced the idea of making it good when I explained that the daughter wanted her mother’s watch in her life, and three months later it was returned to us and her in pristine condition, with a beautiful slate grey dial.

That was two years ago. This evening, the same daughter turned up for curry and wine, this time, by chance, with her father’s watch, with the same refurbishment request. Her Mum is still with us, but her Dad passed about 25 years ago. Because the jubilee bracelet is the old tuna fish tinny one, she thought it was a fake, but I think it’s legitimate. I will be taking it to WoS tomorrow, in the hope that they can send it to Rolex for the same exemplary refurbishment treatment. It’s a beautiful watch.

Rolex can breath new life into old friends.

Three weeks ago I saw a beautiful rose gold Moser Mayu. I tested out after sales by going to the only H. Moser retailer in London, H-Rods. I went to their empty desk, waited for someone to attend to me, but every sales assistant nearby ignored me. I did not buy the watch, because I worried about the watchmaker’s regard for its future.

At another prestige maker, who are wonderful when they greet you, but mostly don’t bother replying to requests for a meeting, I’m still waiting for an appointment. This is the second most prestigious watch maker in the world, with many houses.

My point is this. My experience of Rolex is that it regards its watches as children, who must be attended to for their entire life, regardless of ownership and age. I have many Rolex watches and many children. After my experience with my friend and her parents’ watches, I now feel confident that my watches will live longer lives than me and always be taken care of. That makes Rolex virtually unique.

And valuable (couldn’t resist that!) in so many ways. So if anyone reading this is on the fence, rest assured that any buying decision you make today will echo through the decades. MSRP plus or minus conversations cease to matter if your time horizon is long enough. As Baz Luhrmann said: “throw away your old bank statements; keep your love letters.” Rolex takes care of its love letters in a way that almost no watchmaker I’ve experienced does.

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today..

What goes up must come down, and what comes down always goes up...

ignore the laws of economics if you want, but for me.. I see now as a buying opportunity for Rolex watches.. if you think we'll get back to a time when you get 20% off from an AD, wait it out.... but if I were a betting man, I'd say inside of a year or two, you'll be wishing you paid that 10% above MSRP for that watch you've been wanting for a while.

I did my due diligence and felt buying now makes sense... maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I might lose 10-20% in value... who cares? I buy to wear, not to flip.

Is the US Federal Reserve going to bankroll the purchase of two trillion worth of Rolex-Backed-securities, a financial instrument that doesn't even exist? Because otherwise any comparison to the housing market is impossible to make

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by MiloDiThernan

It’s not a watch review, quite, but it’s about Rolex watches and the way Rolex cares, rather than what they’re worth. You’re right about the need to talk about Rolex without money in mind, most of the time. (And you’re right about the need for all of us to pay our membership fees. I’ve done so.)

About two years’ ago, a friend gave me a 24mm or 28mm Oyster Perpetual which had been stuck in her mother’s bedside drawer for years, ignored, asking if it was worth refurbishing. I took it to London’s WoS and asked them their opinion. They embraced the idea of making it good when I explained that the daughter wanted her mother’s watch in her life, and three months later it was returned to us and her in pristine condition, with a beautiful slate grey dial.

That was two years ago. This evening, the same daughter turned up for curry and wine, this time, by chance, with her father’s watch, with the same refurbishment request. Her Mum is still with us, but her Dad passed about 25 years ago. Because the jubilee bracelet is the old tuna fish tinny one, she thought it was a fake, but I think it’s legitimate. I will be taking it to WoS tomorrow, in the hope that they can send it to Rolex for the same exemplary refurbishment treatment. It’s a beautiful watch.

Rolex can breath new life into old friends.

Three weeks ago I saw a beautiful rose gold Moser Mayu. I tested out after sales by going to the only H. Moser retailer in London, H-Rods. I went to their empty desk, waited for someone to attend to me, but every sales assistant nearby ignored me. I did not buy the watch, because I worried about the watchmaker’s regard for its future.

At another prestige maker, who are wonderful when they greet you, but mostly don’t bother replying to requests for a meeting, I’m still waiting for an appointment. This is the second most prestigious watch maker in the world, with many houses.

My point is this. My experience of Rolex is that it regards its watches as children, who must be attended to for their entire life, regardless of ownership and age. I have many Rolex watches and many children. After my experience with my friend and her parents’ watches, I now feel confident that my watches will live longer lives than me and always be taken care of. That makes Rolex virtually unique.

And valuable (couldn’t resist that!) in so many ways. So if anyone reading this is on the fence, rest assured that any buying decision you make today will echo through the decades. MSRP plus or minus conversations cease to matter if your time horizon is long enough. As Baz Luhrmann said: “throw away your old bank statements; keep your love letters.” Rolex takes care of its love letters in a way that almost no watchmaker I’ve experienced does.

Maybe you need to experience more watch manufacturers?

Not unique at all, many brands will service and restore watches made before Rolex even existed.

[dmash]

MODA:

126610LV- slider, $17k

Believe we’re about to hit 16’s on these

EDIT- one is now listed for $16.95

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by MiloDiThernan

It’s not a watch review, quite, but it’s about Rolex watches and the way Rolex cares, rather than what they’re worth. You’re right about the need to talk about Rolex without money in mind, most of the time. (And you’re right about the need for all of us to pay our membership fees. I’ve done so.)

About two years’ ago, a friend gave me a 24mm or 28mm Oyster Perpetual which had been stuck in her mother’s bedside drawer for years, ignored, asking if it was worth refurbishing. I took it to London’s WoS and asked them their opinion. They embraced the idea of making it good when I explained that the daughter wanted her mother’s watch in her life, and three months later it was returned to us and her in pristine condition, with a beautiful slate grey dial.

That was two years ago. This evening, the same daughter turned up for curry and wine, this time, by chance, with her father’s watch, with the same refurbishment request. Her Mum is still with us, but her Dad passed about 25 years ago. Because the jubilee bracelet is the old tuna fish tinny one, she thought it was a fake, but I think it’s legitimate. I will be taking it to WoS tomorrow, in the hope that they can send it to Rolex for the same exemplary refurbishment treatment. It’s a beautiful watch.

Rolex can breath new life into old friends.

Three weeks ago I saw a beautiful rose gold Moser Mayu. I tested out after sales by going to the only H. Moser retailer in London, H-Rods. I went to their empty desk, waited for someone to attend to me, but every sales assistant nearby ignored me. I did not buy the watch, because I worried about the watchmaker’s regard for its future.

At another prestige maker, who are wonderful when they greet you, but mostly don’t bother replying to requests for a meeting, I’m still waiting for an appointment. This is the second most prestigious watch maker in the world, with many houses.

My point is this. My experience of Rolex is that it regards its watches as children, who must be attended to for their entire life, regardless of ownership and age. I have many Rolex watches and many children. After my experience with my friend and her parents’ watches, I now feel confident that my watches will live longer lives than me and always be taken care of. That makes Rolex virtually unique.

And valuable (couldn’t resist that!) in so many ways. So if anyone reading this is on the fence, rest assured that any buying decision you make today will echo through the decades. MSRP plus or minus conversations cease to matter if your time horizon is long enough. As Baz Luhrmann said: “throw away your old bank statements; keep your love letters.” Rolex takes care of its love letters in a way that almost no watchmaker I’ve experienced does.

[NeoDough]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

Is the US Federal Reserve going to bankroll the purchase of two trillion worth of Rolex-Backed-securities, a financial instrument that doesn't even exist? Because otherwise any comparison to the housing market is impossible to make

In fairness I think most of us realize they are very, very different markets and essentially incomparable in the macro sense. But a big part of our jabbering in this thread (my own included) centers on human psychology, something that plays a very big role in moving both markets.

[amh]

Originally Posted by MiloDiThernan

<snip>
My point is this. My experience of Rolex is that it regards its watches as children, who must be attended to for their entire life, regardless of ownership and age. I have many Rolex watches and many children. After my experience with my friend and her parents’ watches, I now feel confident that my watches will live longer lives than me and always be taken care of. That makes Rolex virtually unique.

And valuable (couldn’t resist that!) in so many ways. So if anyone reading this is on the fence, rest assured that any buying decision you make today will echo through the decades. MSRP plus or minus conversations cease to matter if your time horizon is long enough. As Baz Luhrmann said: “throw away your old bank statements; keep your love letters.” Rolex takes care of its love letters in a way that almost no watchmaker I’ve experienced does.

That's also part of the reason I keep coming back. Thank you

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

What’s alarming are these ‘real estate will double your investment in no time!’ investment gurus on TikTok/IG now. A lot of new home buyers have absurd expectations for what their property should be worth in 10 years, because they bought in the last few and saw one of the hottest markets in I don’t know how many years. There’s most definitely a population of people who have purchased a home for 300k-$400k and 100% believe they can cash out for a million in 10 years and retire.

Don’t even get me started on what some of my coworkers and friends think their stock portfolios will look like in that same timeframe. It’s ridiculous.

Everybody has become so disillusioned, think 10% annual gain is chump change and not excellent.

+ a primary residence isn't necessarily an investment. yeah the price will go up over time but then what, you sell it and downgrade? you can't cash out for a profit without downgrading because cost of living will always move up, unless you move somewhere with a completely different market

a house that went for 250k in the mid 90s in nyc is now around 1 million. people only focus on the number going up but never think about what you can get with that profit, which is nothing worth noting, and that doesn't even account for taxes. imo the only investment in real estate involves rental properties. i hate when everyone says you should buy a house as an investment as soon as you can versus actually investing it into various markets, especially when these same people are taking out 30 year mortgages lol

[temporarychicken]

At least the estate agents in the UK (equivalent to realtors in the US) don't take all the adverts for houses out of the shop window and hide them in the safe.

It's been a seller's market here for the longest time but it hasn't come to that....yet.

They have tried other techniques akin to 'jewellery'' and 'relationship', such as prioritising repeat customers (developers) and applicants who get their mortgages through the agent.

The parallels are actually quite scary between ADs and Estate Agents now I come to think of it.

Limited supply... Make more on each unit.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by MiloDiThernan

My point is this. My experience of Rolex is that it regards its watches as children, who must be attended to for their entire life, regardless of ownership and age. I have many Rolex watches and many children. After my experience with my friend and her parents’ watches, I now feel confident that my watches will live longer lives than me and always be taken care of. That makes Rolex virtually unique.

And valuable (couldn’t resist that!) in so many ways. So if anyone reading this is on the fence, rest assured that any buying decision you make today will echo through the decades. MSRP plus or minus conversations cease to matter if your time horizon is long enough. As Baz Luhrmann said: “throw away your old bank statements; keep your love letters.” Rolex takes care of its love letters in a way that almost no watchmaker I’ve experienced does.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

At least the estate agents in the UK (equivalent to realtors in the US) don't take all the adverts for houses out of the shop window and hide them in the safe.

It's been a seller's market here for the longest time but it hasn't come to that....yet.

They have tried other techniques akin to 'jewellery'' and 'relationship', such as prioritising repeat customers (developers) and applicants who get their mortgages through the agent.

The parallels are actually quite scary between ADs and Estate Agents now I come to think of it.

Limited supply... Make more on each unit.

i can't speak for the UK but over here they were screwing people with offers over by having auctions and pushing prices to 50%+ over ask. they screwed over people in worse ways than rolex did because a house is a necessity so i don't know if that's a good example to use here. at least a rolex is a luxury item and it makes sense to have a "privilege" to buy them given the direction they're taking the brand. with the real estate market though, people were legitimately paying 1.5m for 1m houses in the middle of nowhere just for a place to live

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by huncho

i can't speak for the UK but over here they were screwing people with offers over by having auctions and pushing prices to 50%+ over ask. they screwed over people in worse ways than rolex did because a house is a necessity so i don't know if that's a good example to use here. at least a rolex is a luxury item and it makes sense to have a "privilege" to buy them given the direction they're taking the brand. with the real estate market though, people were legitimately paying 1.5m for 1m houses in the middle of nowhere just for a place to live

I don’t see an auction as “screwing over” anyone. It takes a willing buyer and a willing seller to make a deal. Who would not want to get the most for the sale of their property?

[MoStuff]

I had the fomo hard. Lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[huncho]

Originally Posted by fsprow

I don’t see an auction as “screwing over” anyone. It takes a willing buyer and a willing seller to make a deal. Who would not want to get the most for the sale of their property?

i mean i get why they did it but creating auctions to massively inflate the value of houses is the same kind of exploitation except it's not a luxury good. there were willing buyers only because people were taken advantage of

[eijiboy]

15500 blue ap sold auction for 49k.

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by fsprow

I don’t see an auction as “screwing over” anyone. It takes a willing buyer and a willing seller to make a deal. Who would not want to get the most for the sale of their property?

If you're creating an environment where people are, seemingly, forced to pay more for a property that they can afford, or it is realistically worth, then you are screwing people over
I'm all for maximizing your return, but there's a fine line between selling at the right time and creating an environment where people feel they have to string themselves out finically in order to have a roof over their head
Housing is not a game you can choose not to play if you're unable to afford it (unlike Watches)
Everyone needs somewhere to live and when the market climbs so high so fast, people get desperate and make stupid decisions as they feel like its now or never

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

If you're creating an environment where people are, seemingly, forced to pay more for a property that they can afford, or it is realistically worth, then you are screwing people over
I'm all for maximizing your return, but there's a fine line between selling at the right time and creating an environment where people feel they have to string themselves out finically in order to have a roof over their head
Housing is not a game you can choose not to play if you're unable to afford it (unlike Watches)
Everyone needs somewhere to live and when the market climbs so high so fast, people get desperate and make stupid decisions as they feel like its now or never

yeah well said. a guy who spends 40k on a daytona is probably in a good position financially to be able to stomach that. a family that pays 500k over ask for a house worth less than 1m in the middle of nowhere in New Jersey because agents are propping up the market with auctions might not be. these are essentially places no one was even contemplating before, or maybe just had vacation homes in, but because it was a pandemic and a "new world" agents took advantage of people. i get it if it was somewhere like nyc/miami/la/any other big metro area because the demand to live in a big metro area is always high but places with 2 hour commutes are not, and now with the push back to offices and areas like that obviously falling in value, these people are effectively screwed

for reference, here's a thread from last year. OP offered 50k over ask and the house sold for 450k over ask (1.25m)

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...9#post11350899

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah well said. a guy who spends 40k on a daytona is probably in a good position financially to be able to stomach that. a family that pays 500k over ask for a house worth less than 1m in the middle of nowhere in New Jersey because agents are propping up the market with auctions might not be. these are essentially places no one was even contemplating before, or maybe just had vacation homes in, but because it was a pandemic and a "new world" agents took advantage of people. i get it if it was somewhere like nyc/miami/la/any other big metro area because the demand to live in a big metro area is always high but places with 2 hour commutes are not, and now with the push back to offices and areas like that obviously falling in value, these people are effectively screwed

for reference, here's a thread from last year. OP offered 50k over ask and the house sold for 450k over ask (1.25m)

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...9#post11350899

Do you think house price will go down soon?

[JWillard]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Do you think house price will go down soon?

House prices are already going down depending which region of the US

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by JWillard

House prices are already going down depending which region of the US

Thanks. So no more bidding. I was not exactly looking at the market thats why i asked. I am more busy looking at the watch market lately.

[anodyne13]

I've been waiting for a slate yachtmaster for 2-3 years now because I didn't want to pay markup on what I know used to not be a terribly popular watch (I love it!). I suspect I'll probably be able to buy sometime in next 6 months as the "profit margin" for flippers on the watch becomes not worth the risk.

To be fair I did pay up for a 39MM Exp.1 about a year ago, but I figured no change of getting MSRP on that.

[anodyne13]

On house prices. The market will continue trending down for a while at least, there was such a huge increase in home prices due to low rates, there is no choice but for prices to come down to adjust for increased rates over such a short period of time.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah well said. a guy who spends 40k on a daytona is probably in a good position financially to be able to stomach that. a family that pays 500k over ask for a house worth less than 1m in the middle of nowhere in New Jersey because agents are propping up the market with auctions might not be. these are essentially places no one was even contemplating before, or maybe just had vacation homes in, but because it was a pandemic and a "new world" agents took advantage of people. i get it if it was somewhere like nyc/miami/la/any other big metro area because the demand to live in a big metro area is always high but places with 2 hour commutes are not, and now with the push back to offices and areas like that obviously falling in value, these people are effectively screwed

for reference, here's a thread from last year. OP offered 50k over ask and the house sold for 450k over ask (1.25m)

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...9#post11350899

Yes I remember all the articles about prices rising in places like Lake Tahoe or some random town in Iowa.

It was all fun and games during the height of COVID but I bet many of those people regret buying their primary homes in those places now.

[eijiboy]

New dd rg olive dial just dated rcently for 56k
New panda 34.4


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[agsstructures]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

15500 blue ap sold auction for 49k.

Thats pretty wild for a blue!

[Turbo Racer]

^indeed!

[JWillard]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Thanks. So no more bidding. I was not exactly looking at the market thats why i asked. I am more busy looking at the watch market lately.

There are free websites you can look at current listing, will tell you how long it’s on the market, if price increase or decrease, other key data points.

[1259]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

I meant that as prices go down when people get that call from the AD they will pass. Many don’t want the watches if they lose $ once they walk out the door (that is if prices get as low as people are hoping for)

Ok I misunderstood your original statement. What you said above makes sense and I agree.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by dmash

Current grey prices aren’t even at parity with MSRP + tax on a lot of models though. I don’t consider it a ‘buying opportunity’ until that point is reached.

well considering I live in Norther CA where sales tax is just south of 10% ... the price I paid for the 126619LB is $2000 less than if I'd walked into an AD and bought it there... so I'm good with that price.. frankly, I'd have been good with paying a bit more... because I WANT the watch, but if it's it's $50-$60K in 2-3 years or not is not even on my mind..

I don't think we're going to get to where you can walk into an AD and buy most popular models again anytime soon... before this happens, I can see Rolex taking their sales model to a pure on-line model .. the corruption among so many AD's is beyond repair.