Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[HelloMelo]

126610lv just sold for 15.7k on MODA. Timberrr


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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by dmash

Just wait. Absolutely crazy to buy grey right now in my opinion, don’t catch the falling knife. Worst case it stabilizes, not like it’s going to pop back up immediately.

How about ask prices on rose gold VC overseas?

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

126610lv just sold for 15.7k on MODA. Timberrr


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Meanwhile, DavidSW still has two listed for 22k, lol. I bet he wouldn't even offer half of that right now to a flipper

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

Meanwhile, DavidSW still has two listed for 22k, lol. I bet he wouldn't even offer half of that right now to a flipper

Not sure what the hold up with DavidSW is? I guess he’ll rather let them collect dust before he sells at a loss?


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

Meanwhile, DavidSW still has two listed for 22k, lol. I bet he wouldn't even offer half of that right now to a flipper

Which is fantastic. Once big greys can only offer retail (or less) on a watch, the flippability is completely gone, even for the most small fry of flippers who would utilize hours and hours of their time for a mere $500-$1000 profit. We’re getting close to a much bigger fall in my opinion. We’ll see though!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Not sure what the hold up with DavidSW is? I guess he’ll rather let them collect dust before he sells at a loss?


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Because all the big name greys are holding up the entire market. Can you imagine the panic if everybody in the nation sees places like DavidSW, Bobs, Chrono24 all asking $16k for that? It would be a decimation as everybody runs for the doors who isn’t here for the long haul. Which would in turn, further drive down prices as they have to ask less than the greys, then there will be competition amongst private sellers, this can fall way faster than we’ve witnessed thus far.

They’ve got cash on reserve and hoping/praying that this is temporary for a few months. Which it very well could be, however I doubt it. At some point they’ll have to liquidate and minimize losses if it continues. Their current offers on watches (and non-offers on some model period) says all you need though…..they’re preparing for a further downtrend.

Again, my 2c, but it’s pretty obvious

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by EEpro

How about ask prices on rose gold VC overseas?

That’s what I want too.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by CoolCat#7208

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...es-9?locale=en

Worth keeping an eye on some of these if you're interested in real market values. In HKD yes, but indicative nonetheless.

Don’t forget to add the massive 25% buyer’s fees to the final price.

[trojanrolex]

26420IO just sold for under retail.

[ajw45]

Richemont's latest financials showed -37% YOY for China, -12% YOY in June even after the lockdowns ended. No sales surge, no pent up demand, no revenge shopping and they predict China will continue to under perform for the rest of the year. China is not coming back, it is not going to save the market when it "reopens".

Even worse, the US market was the strongest market so even with the price drops we've already seen, demand here is strong relative to global markets. Strong market and strong currency, I expect we'll see more supply come into the US from other markets and more price pressure.

[Incroyable12]

Many hype watches didn't sell at yesterday's Antiquorum auction--things like vintage Royal Oak Jumbos, etc. The Langes and FPJs also seemed weak.

https://catalog.antiquorum.swiss/en/...july_2022/lots

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Richemont's latest financials showed -37% YOY for China, -12% YOY in June even after the lockdowns ended. No sales surge, no pent up demand, no revenge shopping and they predict China will continue to under perform for the rest of the year. China is not coming back, it is not going to save the market when it "reopens".

Even worse, the US market was the strongest market so even with the price drops we've already seen, demand here is strong relative to global markets. Strong market and strong currency, I expect we'll see more supply come into the US from other markets and more price pressure.

Not only that, China is currently experiencing a slow-motion collapse of their housing industry. When people are carrying out mortgage strikes en mass due to developers failing to build housing projects, there are far bigger things on people's minds than a hot new shiny rolex.

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by dmash

Which is fantastic. Once big greys can only offer retail (or less) on a watch, the flippability is completely gone, even for the most small fry of flippers who would utilize hours and hours of their time for a mere $500-$1000 profit. We’re getting close to a much bigger fall in my opinion. We’ll see though!

There's a bit of a tell on his pages when you sort by Date.

Using SS Subs/GMTs as an example, it was as recent as March or April where his site still had lots of watches listed with warranty dates no older than a month or three earlier, presumably because they were bought and flipped in short order.

Now if you look at his selection on current models where a date is provided:

124060: June 2021
126610LN: April 2021
126610LV: September 2021
126710BLNR: October 2021
126710BLNR: December 2021
126710BLRO: June 2018
126710BLRO: March 2022
126710BLRO: July 2021
126710BLRO: September 2018


Notice a pattern here? Besides the one watch from March of this year, when the market was still at an all time high, these models are all from 2021 or before! The sale of new models in that span is conspicuously absent from DavidSW, so he's either not making offers for them or the flipping of them from ADs to him has become unprofitable because of the offers he's putting out there. He doesn't list when he acquired the watches above, but presumably they are from end users as I imagine most flippers aren't holding on to pieces for months/years.

This was not the case as of six months ago! There were plenty of watches with dates that weren't but a month or two old, presumably when there was still much profit to be made in flipping them

[pjaffe]

I just can’t stop laughing at his BLRO for $34k. A BNIB one is about to sell on Moda (auction) for $19k.

[thekman]

Some TRF trusted sellers have to be holding out for people who have never heard of any dealers but them, hoping they will just buy at their price without checking elsewhere. The delta between them and what even big dealers like EWC are asking is laughable at this point.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I just can’t stop laughing at his BLRO for $34k. A BNIB one is about to sell on Moda (auction) for $19k.

Maybe it's a 2 pack

[Incroyable12]

Someone got a great deal on that WG Patek 5146 for only $27k.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by dmash

Because all the big name greys are holding up the entire market. Can you imagine the panic if everybody in the nation sees places like DavidSW, Bobs, Chrono24 all asking $16k for that? It would be a decimation as everybody runs for the doors who isn’t here for the long haul. Which would in turn, further drive down prices as they have to ask less than the greys, then there will be competition amongst private sellers, this can fall way faster than we’ve witnessed thus far.

They’ve got cash on reserve and hoping/praying that this is temporary for a few months. Which it very well could be, however I doubt it. At some point they’ll have to liquidate and minimize losses if it continues. Their current offers on watches (and non-offers on some model period) says all you need though…..they’re preparing for a further downtrend.

Again, my 2c, but it’s pretty obvious

I wish there was a like button on this forum. This statement make 100% sense to me.

[Incroyable12]

Moda is also a wholesale group so most buyers don't have access to that kind of pricing.

[honuswagner13]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

Moda is also a wholesale group so most buyers don't have access to that kind of pricing.

Can anyone purchase these watches on MODA, or do you need to be a dealer?

[JRedford]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

Can anyone purchase these watches on MODA, or do you need to be a dealer?

Anyone.

[pursang_]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

Can anyone purchase these watches on MODA, or do you need to be a dealer?

Yes, you see enthusiast buyers routinely.

[dmash]

SD43, watch only, $13.3k

Cheaper than MSRP + tax

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

There's a bit of a tell on his pages when you sort by Date.

Using SS Subs/GMTs as an example, it was as recent as March or April where his site still had lots of watches listed with warranty dates no older than a month or three earlier, presumably because they were bought and flipped in short order.

Now if you look at his selection on current models where a date is provided:

124060: June 2021
126610LN: April 2021
126610LV: September 2021
126710BLNR: October 2021
126710BLNR: December 2021
126710BLRO: June 2018
126710BLRO: March 2022
126710BLRO: July 2021
126710BLRO: September 2018


Notice a pattern here? Besides the one watch from March of this year, when the market was still at an all time high, these models are all from 2021 or before! The sale of new models in that span is conspicuously absent from DavidSW, so he's either not making offers for them or the flipping of them from ADs to him has become unprofitable because of the offers he's putting out there. He doesn't list when he acquired the watches above, but presumably they are from end users as I imagine most flippers aren't holding on to pieces for months/years.

This was not the case as of six months ago! There were plenty of watches with dates that weren't but a month or two old, presumably when there was still much profit to be made in flipping them

Wow great work. That’s pretty telling to me… I mean it’s already pretty obvious


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[SBR]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I just can’t stop laughing at his BLRO for $34k. A BNIB one is about to sell on Moda (auction) for $19k.

Too funny, I also get a good laugh when sellers put "priced at only" and it's at least 25% above market. Lot's of people born at night but not last night lol.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by dmash

Because all the big name greys are holding up the entire market. Can you imagine the panic if everybody in the nation sees places like DavidSW, Bobs, Chrono24 all asking $16k for that? It would be a decimation as everybody runs for the doors who isn’t here for the long haul. Which would in turn, further drive down prices as they have to ask less than the greys, then there will be competition amongst private sellers, this can fall way faster than we’ve witnessed thus far.

They’ve got cash on reserve and hoping/praying that this is temporary for a few months. Which it very well could be, however I doubt it. At some point they’ll have to liquidate and minimize losses if it continues. Their current offers on watches (and non-offers on some model period) says all you need though…..they’re preparing for a further downtrend.

Again, my 2c, but it’s pretty obvious

I've seen a few anomalies on David's site where an "identical" watch is listed significantly lower than others. My guess is that when they've got multiple duplicates, they will drop one & let it get snatched away, wait a few days/weeks, then drop another; this will help keep their prices propped up in the short term. There's really no good way to manage the downturn with so much inventory, but holding it all until people rush the exits is worse in the long run.

I like David & the staff I've met & expect they will survive just fine, even if they're forced to take some losses in the near term. They did fine before everything went nuts & should have a decent cash hoard from the increased margins.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Price drop on panda from 34500 to 33900. We finally reached 33k

do you realize how crazy that sounds? That's a $11K retail watch .. We are still talking massive demand vs supply..

[dmash]

Originally Posted by HAL330

do you realize how crazy that sounds? That's a $11K retail watch .. We are still talking massive demand vs supply..

Well, it’s a $14550 watch, but I get your point

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by HAL330

do you realize how crazy that sounds? That's a $11K retail watch .. We are still talking massive demand vs supply..

It was knocking on $50k a couple months ago
Daytona has historically always sold over retail
The price is less telling that the drop

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by dmash

SD43, watch only, $13.3k

Cheaper than MSRP + tax

it comes with card but no box and tags though. 2019