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Today, 12:52 AM | #31 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2024
Location: United Kingdom
Watch: Rolex DateJust 41
Posts: 58
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Quote:
My assumptions were based on 'minimum standing'... so a profile that should be sufficient to get on a list in some way ceteris paribus. Such a forecast can only ever be indicative. Obviously there will be those who for whatever reason never receive a call for a watch that shouldn't be too difficult to get, and perhaps one person in a million landing something desirable as a zero spend walk-in, but those should be extreme outliers. |
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Today, 01:28 AM | #32 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2023
Location: Stockholm
Watch: Just a Daytona
Posts: 1,323
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Quote:
Your initial model could be really simple: average wait-list time. Just adding-up all the time people have spent waiting and taking the average, then taking a one-sided normal statistical distribution about that average. This would be a much better model than random guessing. And every variable you add to your model will conceivably improve its accuracy. The model might be terrible at predicting one specific person's wait-time, yet be excellent at predicting statistical trends. |
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Today, 03:20 AM | #33 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: NOVA
Posts: 15
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What's astonishing to me is how much money Rolex is leaving on the table. They surely have great manufacturing and delivery data at their disposal - imagine how much they could charge for a subscription to that! I'm betting tens of thousands of watch influencers would pay $149/month for access to a live dashboard of stats that might help them juice the ADs and better draw clicks telling us "How to get a new GMT today!"
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Today, 03:40 AM | #34 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Michigan, US
Posts: 381
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