ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
17 January 2022, 12:18 AM | #31 |
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Rolex prices were going up before the pandemic, but the past two years have just been nutty.
So yes, prices will drop, eventually, from these stratospheric levels. Remember, you read it here first.
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17 January 2022, 12:44 AM | #32 |
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Next economic crash rolex will go down or quit going up………same answer for last 30 years….in 2008 it slowed down….now it’s crazy…..this should be a sticky
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17 January 2022, 01:00 AM | #33 | |
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Agreed. Like any tangible non-essential item, economic downturns will decrease demand (thus prices). Unfortunately, the next one is peaking around the corner. |
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17 January 2022, 01:26 AM | #34 |
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It cannot come down .Not anymore .
Interest drives the market pricing . Affluence drives the interest . Social media corrupts the balance and drives it to a level of insanity. Restoration of balance may only be a decrease in the rate of increase in pricing. I own quite a few watches . Current market pricing is making me nauseous. It forces you to see them as caches of cash ..and it destroys the fun of wearing the watch . |
17 January 2022, 01:27 AM | #35 |
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+1
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17 January 2022, 01:32 AM | #36 |
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If I could forecast economic events I'd be sitting on my own island in a tropical paradise being served a drink by a beautiful lady.
Prices will be up, down, or unchanged I bet. Personally I wish references to price would be banned from this forum. |
17 January 2022, 01:51 AM | #37 |
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I have been a Rolex owner for over twenty years and a student of all things Rolex for about six. For all of the time the universal truth has been to buy it now. If you wait the price will go up.
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17 January 2022, 02:06 AM | #38 |
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17 January 2022, 02:57 AM | #39 |
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Welcome to the forum
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7 February 2022, 06:54 PM | #40 |
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I've only been reading this forum for a few weeks and in that time some models have gone up 10 or 20 thousand dollars.
Maybe prices will drop on Ferraris and they'll go back to the days when you can get a new one for $70,000... Last edited by Wing No; 7 February 2022 at 06:55 PM.. Reason: Spelling |
7 February 2022, 07:03 PM | #41 |
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Prices will retreat… in higher horizons.
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7 February 2022, 07:47 PM | #42 | |
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Many here are emotionally invested in the bubble. The delusion seems to be reaching new heights. 'Grey prices cannot fall, impossible...' -completely nuts. 'Rolex cannot increase production, impossible...' -crazy. 'This bubble is different, ignore history...' -bonkers. 'What happened the last couple of years will happen forever and never change, ignore history...' - the delusions on here are getting more frenzied and crazy. As we come out of COVID expect things to get a lot a better. You'll be able to buy a DSSD at an AD for the retail price. Not sure exactly when this will happen but it is coming. Don't get caught up in bubble frenzy. |
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7 February 2022, 10:00 PM | #43 | |
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7 February 2022, 10:13 PM | #44 |
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Highly unlikely at this point. The fact that they're shutting down some smaller ADs should tell you all about it.
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7 February 2022, 10:43 PM | #45 |
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I fear the 126660 James Cameron will be loved in a few weeks from now much more than ever before....!
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7 February 2022, 10:49 PM | #46 |
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Been an avid Rolex owner nearly 50 years.
Have had a home in a very wealthy community in the Dominican Republic over 30 years. 5 years ago, none of the folks here wore Rolex. At a recent party I attended, 80% of the men wore coveted, scarcely allocated references. That change, if global, is why prices are what they are. These are men who will pay any price for the status. It will only become more worldwide. |
7 February 2022, 11:11 PM | #47 |
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1% chance
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7 February 2022, 11:19 PM | #48 |
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Also now wealthy collectors don't want one or two Rolex but all of them, like catching pokemons :)
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7 February 2022, 11:31 PM | #49 |
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7 February 2022, 11:44 PM | #50 |
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Been around a while. The only thing I can see sparking something to the downside is grey market becoming so bloated with inventory that they begin slowing down. First it starts with them not buying as much or offering lower quotes. This grinds the intra dealer trading first. But that will be slow and almost unnoticeable as it will find price support all the way down.
Generally, it would start with harder to move, lower demand models first (DJ 36, YM, SD43, TT stuff, Full PM)) if it did happen. You'd see wider spreads on unworn vs worn copies too. That would hit small greys harder than big ones initially; some would fold their tents. Could be exacerbated if the greys also stop buying and the individual, casual profiteer finds out they cant liquate for profit as quikcly or cleanly as they used to could make a small dent. Short of a fire sale from a couple of large greys, I don't see any imminent trigger to the downside in any large way, outside of a 2008/2009 type credit event. All bull markets run out of steam eventually but that doesn't mean it has to have a crash landing.
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8 February 2022, 12:03 AM | #51 |
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Is it possible to just make all “value” threads it’s own sub forum?
The only thing more annoying than these speculation threads is people posting in them how much they bought a watch for and when. It’s getting old, and no one cares how much you paid. It’s a sad attempt at making others think you are somehow special. |
8 February 2022, 12:08 AM | #52 |
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8 February 2022, 12:12 AM | #53 |
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Price retreat ....
Flattening of the upward trend ..sure Drop in prices ...forget it . The hordes with no actual interest in horology ,smelled money ..and there we go !! Pure commodity There are a few daily wearer old school's left .Like myself .Wearing a 116610LN today .One of the workhorses in my collection. |
8 February 2022, 12:17 AM | #54 | |
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8 February 2022, 12:18 AM | #55 |
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Speculation is of course always interesting, but of course no one can predict. Does it seem likely that the price on certain stainless steel models will continue to always rise at the same rate? That seems unlikely. Does it seem likely that you’ll get that SS Daytona in a year or two at an AD at MSRP? That also seems unlikely. Does it seem likely that a few years from now you’ll see ADs populated with actual “less” desirable models you can buy, including some SS date justs? That seems likely to me.
I think the short of it is that if you want the BLRO or SS Daytona at MSRP, it’s going to be difficult for awhile. If you want a date just, it’s probably going to get better. And if we all see fire sales of Rolex models on the secondary market, that probably means lots of us have far worse things to worry about than what we’re putting on our wrists every morning. |
8 February 2022, 12:27 AM | #56 | |
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Like the process you have outlined. Just some thoughts: 1. Demand continues to outstrip supply from new and pre owned Rolex’s by a huge margin - prices will stay firm or rise further 2. Demand moderates a little and supply of new and pre owned catches up - prices will start to consolidate and curve flattens 3. Demand and supply start to mix and match - prices flatten and dip a little, grey market inventory goes down in value, margin calls, etc and some amount of ‘fire sale’ starts with large ones 4. Prices are now firmed, not rising. One model still sell at huge premium - Daytona but that also for the collectible ones. Sanity returns and now people are not using AD purchases to only flip, they are now keeping the watches 5. The ‘deflation’ has happened and slowly the retail prices will catch up with the ‘new normal’ - prices will continue to be 1.5-2.0 times current retail. The whole process might take 4-5 years, economic realities - interest rates, inflation, asset bubbles all will add to these. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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8 February 2022, 12:29 AM | #57 |
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Maybe a market crash? This 10% correction didn't do much, so it would have to be pretty big something like >50%?
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8 February 2022, 12:36 AM | #58 |
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8 February 2022, 12:41 AM | #59 |
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Price will only retreat the day investors quit buying Rolex as another asset class in their portfolio. Problem is grey dealers are artificially keeping prices high by passing the hot watches between one another. Also, they get allocations from ADs for being top clients. The average customer is taken for a ride.
My suggestion is we should all quit buying those models from grey dealers for some time, until they can no longer afford to keep them in stock and must liquidate. |
8 February 2022, 12:57 AM | #60 |
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In truth I always thought the global demand and hence the supply of Rolexes was on the low side considering they were not that expensive at £4/5K for the SS models, and also that apart from cars this was a leading wealth or success signifier or reward, but the world seemed quite closed off to luxury watches or felt they were just too extravagant as an idea in general - well the last few years has exploded watches onto the gen pop, both as an affordable luxury and as an asset class, and so I doubt things will go back to before, there has been a new realignment of demand and accessibility with Rolexes and Pateks and APs etc.
We should mostly be just glad alot of us got in on horology and the watch game when it was largely unheralded and undervalued. |
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