ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
17 October 2024, 07:16 PM | #31 |
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17 October 2024, 07:47 PM | #32 |
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17 October 2024, 08:23 PM | #33 |
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I have a feeling with the next few rounds of interest rate cuts to come, the luxury market including watches and cars will reverse this trend. Money is becoming cheaper and that's what triggered the massive increases in the first place.
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17 October 2024, 08:34 PM | #34 |
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I'd agree with the caveat that nothing like ZIRP appears to be on the horizon, so the deeply abnormal days are unlikely to return.
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17 October 2024, 09:05 PM | #35 |
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ChronoTracker app on Apple Store tracks actual Insta action sales/no sale in Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Arabian Gulf. Very interesting results. 3 days trial will give you access to recent results.
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17 October 2024, 09:10 PM | #36 | |
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Pepsi was trading at $18 BEFORE COVID craze, so now guys like you are of the opinion that it’s going to be BETTER than pre-COVID prices now? I want some of what you all are smoking please it’s just completely non-sensical I’m strongly of the opinion that a lot of people who have complained about the high prices, the price is NEVER going to be good enough, even at retail, and you’ll always be on the sidelines. Prices are at a good spot right now in my opinion, some models upwards of 50% off covid highs and stabilized a bit. |
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17 October 2024, 09:22 PM | #37 | |
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people have been crying for prices to go back to retail since 2020 but at the same time msrp has gone up a lot since then so naturally when retail prices finally come now everyone wants discounts because it's still much higher than pre covid |
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17 October 2024, 09:30 PM | #38 | |||
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I think your Bobs watches scenario says A LOT. The ride is over. Quote:
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17 October 2024, 09:33 PM | #39 |
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Definitely see this happening. Here in Holland, saw a Deep Sea and a date just steel wimbledon for sale. (and TT - Full gold) Aprox 15 pieces, so thats way more than the standard 0.
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17 October 2024, 09:42 PM | #40 |
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The combination of a sluggish economy and rising interest rates definitely seems to be impacting consumer spending, leading to a more buyer friendly climate.
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17 October 2024, 10:00 PM | #41 |
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17 October 2024, 10:05 PM | #42 |
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Data is king but how you read it is also important. When we talk of the highs of the Covid times, how many watches were sold for all time highs? It is apparent that some will continue to use the high numbers of Covid as the point of reference for sales numbers now. Flawed reasoning at best, at worst it is just click bait to drive "The Sky is Falling Crowd" that loves to talk about the economy, interest rates and how we are always close to a recession/depression. What this data also fails to acknowledge is the total number of models available and the variations inside the model lineup. I assume that there are at least 100k Date Just models sold in a year in all types of variations. I would also assume that maybe 1/10th of that number produced are Daytona's/Pepsi's and any other desirable model. Without being able to go deep into actual sales figures from most if not all points of sale and production numbers we are at some point just speculating. Has the market softened since the highs, absolutely. Are less desirable, more high production models selling for less in the secondary market, yes. But you are still not getting the desirable models from AD's on a regular basis and the secondary market supports the prices that they can get. As far as paying 21k for a Pepsi, good for the member who bought it at the best price he was comfortable with. Great watch and value at the market price. Will he lose money on it? Maybe, if he sales right away but give it a few years and he may make money if he sales. If the model is discontinued then he will make more. But he has the watch he wants and can wear and enjoy it now. Good for him.
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17 October 2024, 10:07 PM | #43 |
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I think it's all going to end in tears for Rolex. I bought a YM white gold 14 months ago, retail. I like the watch (but nowhere near as comfortable as a GMT on jubilee) . I was looking at getting a full gold GMT and asked for a PX price. 17k. 30% drop in a year is unsustainable for any business.
Add to this that in the UK the AD's treat you like sh*t and it all adds up to a big mess. They need to shift big pieces, can't, so where does it all end ? Who knows. I'm just looking to get back to normality. I got a batgirl retail no spend history. Don't be fooled, AD's have LOTS of SS in stock. They have just been able to restrict supply. The party is over... |
17 October 2024, 10:12 PM | #44 |
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I don't think the downward trajectory will continue for long. Inflation here in Canada was 1.6% last month, interest rates are expected to drop again by a half point soon, if interest keeps dropping and people have spare cash again, market prices will probably increase.
Me, personally, I want values to drop. |
17 October 2024, 10:27 PM | #45 | |
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Quote:
I tend to think you’re right to a point. I’ll add … that when I bought a Snoopy, I went gray and paid about $5k over retail. It didn’t fuss me because I figured if I had to wait 5 years to get one, the regular retail price would probably be close to what I had to pay in todays dollars. Bottom line, you either wait to buy at retail or you pay what you’re comfortable with on the secondary market. |
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17 October 2024, 10:35 PM | #46 |
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The current (post covid) grey market pricing where one can make a profit by selling a used watch is abnormal and never meant to be sustainable. My definition of Rolex price dropping is measuring it at ADs when discounts are starting to be offered again…although I am not sure if this will happen anytime soon. My ADs tell me that they still have a lot of backlog orders to be fulfilled.
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17 October 2024, 10:48 PM | #47 |
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Definitely at least these scenarios will come back soon. If not even better as this is at minimum in my opinion.
Discount 10-25% on gold or unpopular models. Pepsi, buy two DJs or unpopular dial gold DD or FG model. All other GMTs will either be available without previous spend or minimal spend. Steel Daytona, buy 3 DJs or two Gold DD or other unpopular Gold model or some Tudors, and wait 2-3 years and get one. TT Daytonas in case. Off catalogue popular models will always need high spend, but market prices for these will at least fall a further 30-50%. Le Mans, Rainbow Daytona, etc |
17 October 2024, 11:18 PM | #48 | |
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You grossly underestimate how many new people are into watches for those scenarios to pan out You also underestimate Rolex’s abilities to curtail production to meet demand exactly as they want. Keep dreaming in my opinion guys. I literally think, for at least the foreseeable future, we NEVER see hot models in windows ever again. The game has changed. Period. |
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17 October 2024, 11:18 PM | #49 |
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Most of the time when you buy any hyped watch at used market prices, you will lose a lot of money in the short term. The amount of money you lose is the dealer's margin. What they will sell a watch for less what they will buy it for, at any given time, is the margin amount. The margin increases as the market stabilizes or softens. It shrinks in a rising market as dealers have to bid and compete for scarcer product.
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17 October 2024, 11:25 PM | #50 |
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This is returning to 2018-2019. Platinum Daytona in the case, gold DD all available, 10% to 20% on gold except Daytona, TT Daytona in case, and Batman with minimal spend from personal experience. Also a big percentage are not spending on luxury goods now, flippers out, so many grey dealers are out of business or being bought out. Demand is declining overall. Rolex is increasing production not cutting it, Rolex, Patek, AP were all much under retail for most models. Market prices are further coming back down, and the US is a lagging market vs the rest of the world because the economy is still resilient, it may take longer.
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17 October 2024, 11:34 PM | #51 | |
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But anyways I’m not going to back and forth with you. We can agree to disagree |
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17 October 2024, 11:41 PM | #52 | |
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17 October 2024, 11:58 PM | #53 |
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126610LV//116508 Daytona YG Black/Champagne 116655 YM40 Everose Oysterflex//126622 YM40 Blue//126600 SD43 126710BLNR//126711CHNR 126334 DJ41 Rhodium/Diamonds//126331 DJ41 TT Wimbledon 124300 OP41 Green//126334 DJ41Mint Green |
Yesterday, 12:04 AM | #54 |
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Anyone who wants to see the actual value of an asset needs to try to offload said asset. Asking prices are meaningless benchmarks, call an AD / 2nd hand reseller and ask for a quote for any particular reference to see what it’s actually worth. For the majority of references, you’ll be lucky to get offered MSRP, and more likely to be well under MSRP. Which means, for most resellers they’re banking on moving lower volume at higher margins (inflated asking prices) to slowly ease their way out of their underwater inventory positions. The worst thing about it, is there’s enough idiots out there, so desperate to wrap their wrists in metal and ceramic they decide it’s worth offering a micro bail out to speculators instead of carrying on with their lives. Those that stay out of the racket meanwhile, are in increasing numbers getting calls/texts to purchase what’s also in increasing numbers a product that no longer carries the interest it once held to them, compounding the steady effect of depreciation as evidenced in the links in this thread.
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Yesterday, 12:12 AM | #55 |
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Just ignoring it and scrolling on by is also an option…
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Yesterday, 12:15 AM | #56 | |
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Never place your happiness on something you have or can physically acquire |
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Yesterday, 01:57 AM | #57 |
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Mostly to grey. Grey purchase agreed quantity of not so popular models at discount, and get hot models to sell over retail, but not at these current ridiculous prices. Some ADs grey dealers are actually the biggest VIPs
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Yesterday, 02:02 AM | #58 | |
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Yesterday, 02:04 AM | #59 |
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I see this happening as well, I finally got allocated a OP36 green from an AD with zero spend. In LA/OC area! Sold my OP41 i bought grey in Hong Kong, while im still able to get profit over the retail price. OP's are slow right now according to my AD and what i see in Moda groups. According to my SA Everyone asking for the same Sub/GMT/ daytona.
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Yesterday, 02:08 AM | #60 | |
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Quote:
That is a wild take. Not the perspective I’d subscribe to. He can turn around as a private seller tomorrow and sell it for at least 19k, so not sure how you are getting 8k. Unless you think grey price is falling to 13k for a Pepsi? Which is not very reasonable or likely imo. One thing I have noticed about TRF over the recent years is half the people will say the sky is falling and the other half will say to the moon. Usually neither are correct. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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