Is anyone really buying?

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by SDR581

People are making a crap ton of money with crypto and are invest in hard assets. That's why they are pay 3x retail.

They didn't invest much to begin with and instead of taking out the money and paying taxes they buy a watch via crypto that holds its value and will go up.

Face in palm


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[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by rushca01

I’ve actually seen many watches that don’t sell get re-listed for more! Literally the exact same watch. Matter of fact, I have tracked one back to like 8 months. The first listing from 8 months ago was 15,250…didn’t sell. Get’s re-listed at 16,250 doesn’t sell…get’s re-listed for 16,450 and now 16,850. I offered the seller 15,250 when it was 16,450 and his response was “my cost are going up, I’m actually going to re-list it for more”. Talk about creating FOMO.

This. 100.


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[rmwill]

The many "source to order" sellers on C24 do not actually have the watch prior to your order. They keep upping the price because when they go to actually buy the watch to fill your order the price has gone up. C24 is filled with these ghost listings.

Originally Posted by rushca01

I’ve actually seen many watches that don’t sell get re-listed for more! Literally the exact same watch. Matter of fact, I have tracked one back to like 8 months. The first listing from 8 months ago was 15,250…didn’t sell. Get’s re-listed at 16,250 doesn’t sell…get’s re-listed for 16,450 and now 16,850. I offered the seller 15,250 when it was 16,450 and his response was “my cost are going up, I’m actually going to re-list it for more”. Talk about creating FOMO.

[Danny83]

My neighbor paid 27k for a Rootbeer last week.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by daOnlyBG

Sooo just a gentle reminder: watches took a quick plunge after the 2008 crisis- but they also quickly rebounded. A market crash might not exactly slow down the secondary market if the Federal Reserve ends up dropping rates again.

And that's why 2008 is such a poor comparison to what we're going through now. I think a far more appropriate economic situation to analyze would be the inflation rates in the late 70s and the Fed's subsequent response. Of course, watches didn't have the demand that they did in the late 70s like they have now- so the data isn't there to draw anything meaningful.

tl;dr - 2008 isn't exactly what we're going through now, and it's not easy to use macroeconomics to explain what'll happen to watch prices

Dropping rates? I believe you meant hiking rates. There is basically no comparison for this situation. In the 70-80s interest rates were astronomical-like 15-18 percent. The fed now believes a .25 hike is going to move the needle.

The truth is it’s mostly theatre for the masses. In no way possible can rate hikes now control inflation. It’s a runaway train. The interest hike required would devastate the equities market which is already absurdly leveraged and being held up by a few companies.


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[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Agreed. It’s insane. Watch prices seems to be increasing $100 to $500 per week.

Not sure it will last though.

With the current economic situation, prices will stabilize and might even come down if March & April 2020 was an indicator.

Supply and demand will start to even out.

People will start to get hurt w/ investments (many have already began to feel pain). People getting hit w/ margin calls started. Crypto so far has not been the kryptonite to raising inflation like done w/ gold for decades. While 2023 hopefully will not be another 2008, late 2021 & 2022 so far sure feels like late 2006 & 2007 to me.

Plane flying. Smoke in cabin.


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[Eric88]

I realize this data is nearly impossible to acquire, though I'd be really interested to see the customer base for popular grey dealers and how much of it crosses over with watch enthusiast sites like TRF etc. It seems this is a place where people come to share their love of watches, pics, sales, etc. and while we have a pretty healthy % that are getting AD support, there are also a lot buying from grey dealers.

It would be interesting to know if forums like this fuel 50%+ of grey sales or if it's a much smaller number and there are just tons of general people out there just going after the brand/model without a true watch passion, willing to spend whatever?

As for me, I've been buying, selling, collecting Rolex watches for nearly 13 years and have used multiple avenues to acquire them. I have some regular friends from forums where we've done private sales/trades, I've bought regularly from known places like HQ Milton, and have been a customer of DavidSW for over 10 years, buying plenty of watches well before there was any sort of markup over retail, and most deals were discounted below MSRP, based on the history of watch sales.

Having a longer-standing relationship does lead to some negotiation and better deals, though the days of buying a ceramic Rolex in the $6k range are long gone, LOL.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

... OR ppl buy these hot pieces as investments since they know they’ll either break even or profit. Putting $35k into a tiffany op41 is better than $35k just sitting in the bank.

Until it isn't.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by rushca01

I’ve actually seen many watches that don’t sell get re-listed for more! Literally the exact same watch. Matter of fact, I have tracked one back to like 8 months. The first listing from 8 months ago was 15,250…didn’t sell. Get’s re-listed at 16,250 doesn’t sell…get’s re-listed for 16,450 and now 16,850. I offered the seller 15,250 when it was 16,450 and his response was “my cost are going up, I’m actually going to re-list it for more”. Talk about creating FOMO.

Yup, and I am happy to add a few more extreme examples...

1) Local preowned dealer listed a mint Patek 5711/1A white from 2019 at EUR 60k around 18 months ago. Didn't sell. Then upped it to 100k, before raising his price to 240k. Same watch. Wait, just checked again, 240k was last week. Now he wants a cool EUR 250k / USD 285k. Nice watch, but most want the blue dial.

2) Same dealer, different watch. Listed a Patek 3800/1P blue somewhere north of EUR 100k maybe 6 months ago (forgot where exactly). Then quickly up to just above 200k and now at a cool EUR 450k. Sure, a very rare watch (unlike the 5711 white above), but also too small for most.

In reality, this dealer has changed his business model and has become an investor who isn't interested in turning his inventory at this point in time.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by tedo

So I see across numerous websites hundreds of the Rolex model I want, both new and preowned, at 3x the retail price at the AD — where of course nothing is available.

But really — 3x the price, people are paying this? Or not so much given I see there are so many listings for sale? Are they simply just sitting there? I see the same listings week after week, same watch, no change in the price.

Well, easy answer to your question. Call any grey reputable dealer and offer to sell your watch see what they pay you. You’ll find they make about 3-4K or less on average. So, do they sell ?

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by rmwill

The many "source to order" sellers on C24 do not actually have the watch prior to your order. They keep upping the price because when they go to actually buy the watch to fill your order the price has gone up. C24 is filled with these ghost listings.

This is a watch this has been listed on TRF, not chrono 24. Exact same pictures of the exact same watch.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by gerry100

Does price negotiation occur?

Yes. About 8 percent in my experience


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[westbeach]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

New Pandas cost $17k CDN. One was listed up here for sale this past week for $75k. I don't know what the final price was but it sold within an hour. BLROs list for triple retail and they also usually sell quickly.

Ever think the FB groups are colluding to drive the prices up. All are sold quickly yet the ones that follow often go unsold at substantially less.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Danny83

My neighbor paid 27k for a Rootbeer last week.

I would’ve sold him mine for &24!


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[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by tedo

So I see across numerous websites hundreds of the Rolex model I want, both new and preowned, at 3x the retail price at the AD — where of course nothing is available.

But really — 3x the price, people are paying this? Or not so much given I see there are so many listings for sale? Are they simply just sitting there? I see the same listings week after week, same watch, no change in the price.

Yes. Rolex makes about 1mm watches per year, and guess what, they’re all getting sold so fast they don’t even get into display case. Every single one of those watches sells.


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by tymonster

Rolex makes roughly one million watches a year across all model lines to supply the entire globe. Shave off the popular models and the numbers are a small proportion of that. Now look at the number of millionaires just in the top 15 countries (not even including billionaires or people even making over $500k a year) and consider maybe $30,000 for a BLRO or $50,000 for a Daytona as disposable income.

The US alone added 2,251,000 NEW millionaires between 2019-2020.

If just the millionaires in South Korea wanted a Daytona, good luck getting one.

The amount of money people have to spend on things they want now vs the amount of inventory available even if Rolex upped their production by 200% the supply would not meet the demand.

People are buying.






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I’m always curious by these numbers.

Not disputing them just more the definition of millionaire

[rmwill]

I am sure some sellers here do it also.

Originally Posted by rushca01

This is a watch this has been listed on TRF, not chrono 24. Exact same pictures of the exact same watch.

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by rmwill

I am sure some sellers here do it also.

Well, it would be pretty crappy to use the same pictures and listing language and supply a different watch than the one listed. They add is very specific, on what the watch is, not “generic” photos. The shows pictures of the warranty card etc. If I’m buying a watch from a trusted seller here I expect to get the watch in the pictures.

[rmwill]

Agree.

Originally Posted by rushca01

Well, it would be pretty crappy to use the same pictures and listing language and supply a different watch than the one listed. They add is very specific, on what the watch is, not “generic” photos. The shows pictures of the warranty card etc. If I’m buying a watch from a trusted seller here I expect to get the watch in the pictures.

[Parapraxis]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

New Pandas cost $17k CDN. One was listed up here for sale this past week for $75k. I don't know what the final price was but it sold within an hour. BLROs list for triple retail and they also usually sell quickly.

My AD told me they sold a Daytona to a loyal customer and he went and flipped it the next day for 65k CAD. People definitely are buying

[harvey]

…there’s more money about than ever before!

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by Parapraxis

My AD told me they sold a Daytona to a loyal customer and he went and flipped it the next day for 65k CAD. People definitely are buying

Was the AD happy/mad about that? Do you think they will still sell to that customer or did he “burn the bridge”?

[noshake]

Chrono24 needs actual sale price data. Would be nice to filter out actual customer sells vs dealer to dealer as well.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by noshake

Chrono24 needs actual sale price data. Would be nice to filter out actual customer sells vs dealer to dealer as well.

I think they prefer everybody to think they are selling for some of those crazy prices……which creates more FOMO and more sales

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Dropping rates? I believe you meant hiking rates. There is basically no comparison for this situation. In the 70-80s interest rates were astronomical-like 15-18 percent. The fed now believes a .25 hike is going to move the needle.

The truth is it’s mostly theatre for the masses. In no way possible can rate hikes now control inflation. It’s a runaway train. The interest hike required would devastate the equities market which is already absurdly leveraged and being held up by a few companies.


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Yup.
Bullseye of the month post right there.

[AtlasMaximus]

Yesterday I saw a post on FB where a guy bought his wife a DJ but the next day she "realized" the watch wasn't for her. In the post, he even shows the receipt. So he bought it for $16500 and had it listed at $20k.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I’m always curious by these numbers.

Not disputing them just more the definition of millionaire

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-...th-report.html page 21. Their definition includes everything, "dwellings, land, savings, investments,...market value of pension funds".

These "millionaires" are not the ones spending $50k for a Daytona.

[Xerxes77]

I think yes…. And it’s not to blame….. some people are enough to talk to SA who told them how hard it is…. And need to buy jewelry who don’t want …. Some people have dignity in the end and don’t ask nothing….. just buy from grey and enjoy life
Congratulations to all!

[tropicwatches]

All my recent purchases of Rolex were from trusted grey market dealers.

[RolexSimon]

Originally Posted by daOnlyBG

Sooo just a gentle reminder: watches took a quick plunge after the 2008 crisis- but they also quickly rebounded. A market crash might not exactly slow down the secondary market if the Federal Reserve ends up dropping rates again.

And that's why 2008 is such a poor comparison to what we're going through now. I think a far more appropriate economic situation to analyze would be the inflation rates in the late 70s and the Fed's subsequent response. Of course, watches didn't have the demand that they did in the late 70s like they have now- so the data isn't there to draw anything meaningful.

tl;dr - 2008 isn't exactly what we're going through now, and it's not easy to use macroeconomics to explain what'll happen to watch prices

Availability increased as the stockbrokers lost their bonuses and I jumped up in the queue for my 5712 and got it early 2010 :-)