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3 January 2020, 08:39 AM | #31 |
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I have noticed that the prices for BLRO and BLNR are dropping in Hong Kong lately, especially for the cash payments. BLNR can now be had for 12K EUR all day long, while the BLRO is now sub 15K EUR, and we had the official price increase yesterday. So, something is definitely going on on the market, it's just that we, the regular buyers will probably find out last about it. Still, that could be the indication that the 2020 will not be an 2018/2019!
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3 January 2020, 08:41 AM | #32 |
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I gotta believe that DavidSW gets a jolt out of reading these posts about his business modus operandi!
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3 January 2020, 08:43 AM | #33 | |
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3 January 2020, 08:44 AM | #34 | |
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3 January 2020, 08:45 AM | #35 |
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Not a chance.
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3 January 2020, 08:54 AM | #36 |
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3 January 2020, 09:00 AM | #37 |
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Back then, ADs were giving discounts to walk-ins and those walk-in sold to greys which then flipped for below msrp. Back then and now are two different era’s. The business model changed.
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3 January 2020, 09:02 AM | #38 |
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the model has changed but subs are pretty easy to get. i was just referring to subs
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3 January 2020, 09:05 AM | #39 |
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Easy to get in my book means sitting in a case. There is still a wait list for a black sub, even if it is only a couple of weeks.
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3 January 2020, 09:08 AM | #40 |
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In what world are subs of any kind easy to get for the average Joe these days? Not round these parts...
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3 January 2020, 09:42 AM | #41 |
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Waited around 4 mos in the Midwest US for a Sub Date. I don’t call that “easy to get..”
Easy to get is walk-in and it’s in the case. |
3 January 2020, 11:20 AM | #42 |
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Grey dealers basically make a few dollars per watch running marathons to get stock and to unload crap. It is a hard business where they kill themselves to make a profit selling one Daytona and ten two-tone ladies Datejusts. The AD has an easy life selling all at retail while the grey dealer finds small brick and mortar shops that are happy to buy whatever Rolex slightly under retail. The grey makes a loss on the crap to stores and other dealers and hopes to make a big enough profit on the hot stuff to eager buyers that can’t get allocation.
I guarantee that the big price raise from Rolex hurt a lot. Suddenly the small profit the grey dealer made on that Daytona is gone when they absorb the loss on all the Datejusts. I think a lot of grey dealers will shift focus from Rolex to easier stuff. Availability will get better at ADs when the big margin goes to Rolex instead of to the grey market.
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3 January 2020, 11:32 AM | #43 |
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DavidSW is advertising unworn 116610s for $11,275. That’s 25% over new MSRP. So margins still very healthy
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3 January 2020, 11:43 AM | #44 |
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Yes for walk-ins it has been sparse. More about relationship building now. Most of the watches are obtainable with patience and honest communication.
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3 January 2020, 11:51 AM | #45 |
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3 January 2020, 11:59 AM | #46 |
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Grey dealers basically get all their inventory from ADs and other dealers directly. The occassional flippers are just bonus for them. Their pricing is based on the market. Meaning they charge as much as possible depending on how desperate they are to sell. Unlike you and me they make money on turnover so max price is not necessarily always the best option. It all comes down to how liquid they are and what opportunities there are around.
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3 January 2020, 12:03 PM | #47 |
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I would imagine AD and grey help each other. Everyone thinks ad can just unload at will and profit. Sure in the TRF world where everyone want a sub and BLRO and Daytona... Because AD can move those all day long. But think of all the DJ, YM, and PM (1 month ago my AD had YG daytona on oysterflex been there forever , YG Smurf for awhile,etc). They have all that inventory sitting that they paid for, sure they sold the few SS but that doesn't keep them open.
I would guess Mr grey and AD have an arrangement like this... Grey gets a few SS at MSRP (which clearly the case as all the for sale ads here with warranty card from previous month). In order to get those SS get the less desirable stuff at discount. AD make money on SS and a little on other stuff. Grey make money doubling price of Daytona and then can sell other stuff 15 percent less than MSRP and make a few bucks. AD gets sales numbers and grey can keep paying for bandwidth. |
3 January 2020, 12:06 PM | #48 | |
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Anyone know roughy the margins grays look to make on buying from an everyday person? (I should add... I have not been and will not be a flipper. I am simply curious.) |
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3 January 2020, 12:13 PM | #49 | |
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Some dealers are happy to make little and some need more. Just as any other business. Most of the grey market are people selling dealer to dealer for literally no margin. It is not DavidSW calling every dealer in the world to get a Daytona to mark up 50%.
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3 January 2020, 12:17 PM | #50 |
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3 January 2020, 12:46 PM | #51 |
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I think the AD has all the power, there are a ton of grey dealers out there and the AD gets to decide who they sell too. If one grey dealer says I won’t pay msrp on a DJ but I’ll take 10 but another says I’ll take 7 at msrp you better believe I’m selling 7 at msrp. I’ll move the other 3 sooner or later.
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3 January 2020, 12:59 PM | #52 | |
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3 January 2020, 01:08 PM | #53 | |
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3 January 2020, 04:28 PM | #54 | |
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3 January 2020, 04:34 PM | #55 |
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Why would an AD sell any sought after sports watch to a grey for a good amount under retail?
At retail with a bundle of slow sellers perhaps?
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3 January 2020, 04:38 PM | #56 |
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The grey dealer I attended school with and have been friends with for 30 years plus told me the only way they pay MSRP for the hot pieces , via their AD contacts is by buying other ‘slow sellers’ at MSRP or just below MSRP.
I’m currently wanting a piece ( a slow seller) for my others half’s significant birthday, currently £10,500 on the Rolex site , via my grey I can get it for £8500. |
3 January 2020, 04:41 PM | #57 | |
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I laughed into my tea when I read that Sub Dates are only a few bucks over MSRP. Please let me know where.
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3 January 2020, 05:00 PM | #58 | |||
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Not as of the last few years.
Not even remotely accurate. Quote:
Quote:
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Because Rolex uses the allocation business model, your stainless steel sports watch will always maintain some relatively high level of value. Sure, you might not make as much as you would have hoped if you go to "cash it in" to a dealer- but you'll retain far, far more than just about any other watch brand, save maybe for certain Patek Philippes. Stop and appreciate what this means for a moment: if you bought a Seamaster brand new, and then after a few years wanted to evolve your collection, you've just about lost 40-50% when you go back to sell to a dealer. With a Hulk Submariner, you could have even paid grey market and only taken a 15% hit. If you bought at MSRP, you'd not only break even, but probably make a little bit, too. I was literally where you were once on this very forum. I argued that Rolex is pissing off its base by embracing the allocation model. But really, it isn't: at the end of the day, when anyone here gets the call from their AD that their Daytona or GMT is in, they'll literally forget every petulant comment they've hurled toward Rolex SA and rush over to the AD with money in their hands, a smile on their face bigger than just about any time in their life. We can lie to ourselves and pretend because we love the Daytona, and maybe we do, but in reality it's because the minute you purchase that Daytona the net worth of your collection has gone up $10-$12K. Now, you want to complain about the ADs being super shady, dishonest, vague, etc., be my guest- I'm guessing everyone here has had their grievances with particular ones. But Rolex is doing just fine by its customers.
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3 January 2020, 06:56 PM | #59 | |
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3 January 2020, 06:59 PM | #60 |
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The black sub is easier to get now, even in UK. Still a waiting list piece, but some people can get it now without purchase history or not a significant one. They just need patience.
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