Time to separate the men from the boys..

[Pateks]

Originally Posted by AHG

There is no watch I have to have right now (in my budget range). Maybe there will be when new 2020 models arrive. If there was a watch I wanted badly, I'd pay MSRP if that's as good as it gets, but the idea of not negotiating if one has the opportunity seems silly. But your point is well taken: don't buy a watch just because it's a good value but because you want it even if it's at MSRP. Hopefully, I interpreted that correctly.

Yes. you understood exactly what I was trying to convey. Ty.

[iLLGT2]

Originally Posted by Pateks

So if a watch you wanted is now available more easily, but its at MSRP - do you want it or not?

How about from a diff perspective, you have other pateks that have spent tons of time breaking and at stern agency, and the one you want (minus hype) comes up are you still a buyer?

For true watch guys it’s not about rarity/availability, but I’m speaking as a collector and buyer from 5-10-15 years ago pre hype

IMO and as I’ve expressed tons of times, Patek quality has declined and been such a let down for me and others that even if it’s avail who wants to deal with it going back and forth to be serviced

For those that see dollar signs it’s a no brainer for them

For me economic hardship doesn’t matter in writing checks it’s whether not I wanna deal with the bs of my new platinum pateks power reserve not working or 5712 date getting stuck etc lol

[Pateks]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With respect: The men are buying stock right now; not watches.

As they should be.

This is more of a rhetorical exercise. People have been complaining of grays and inflated prices and lack of availability. Well, maybe that problem goes away for the short term.

Are people going to complain about something else now or actually take advantage of the fact that they can now have their supposed coveted time pieces.

[Calatrava r]

I see this and cannot help but believe this could be very bad for everyone. It needs to stop soon before supply, demand and consumer confidence are so devastated that there is no quick road back. A falling tide will eventually have all the ships stuck in the mud. Luxury anything will not be on anyone's mind when the once prosperous company they built over a lifetime is bankrupt.

[Pateks]

Originally Posted by iLLGT2

How about from a diff perspective, you have other pateks that have spent tons of time breaking and at stern agency, and the one you want (minus hype) comes up are you still a buyer?

For true watch guys it’s not about rarity/availability, but I’m speaking as a collector and buyer from 5-10-15 years ago pre hype

IMO and as I’ve expressed tons of times, Patek quality has declined and been such a let down for me and others that even if it’s avail who wants to deal with it going back and forth to be serviced

For those that see dollar signs it’s a no brainer for them

For me economic hardship doesn’t matter in writing checks it’s whether not I wanna deal with the bs of my new platinum pateks power reserve not working or 5712 date getting stuck etc lol

That is a separate issue independent of any financial correction.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Pateks

Global economic meltdown is in effect. Oil dropped 31% overnight. Dow futures down about 1200 points as I write this. We are headed for an economic correction which long term is healthy, short term, there will be pain.

I have a feeling that all those hard to get pieces that people have been craving for all these years will suddenly magically become available. Now we will see who actually enjoys these pieces and buys them and those that just love to whine about the greys, and flippers.

So whip out your checkbook boys- that nautilus you wanted for the past few years, you just might be able to get it. But will you actually buy it?

Somebody offers me a 5711 or 5712 for MSRP, I’m buying.

[iLLGT2]

Originally Posted by Pateks

That is a separate issue independent of any financial correction.

You said whip out your checkbook boys, that Patek you want may be avail will you actually buy it?
So for me it was NO
And I stated my reason

So it was in response to what you asked

Not everyone will think in hype logic

[Pateks]

Originally Posted by iLLGT2

You said whip out your checkbook boys, that Patek you want may be avail will you actually buy it?
So for me it was NO
And I stated my reason

So it was in response to what you asked

But from your post, your aren't buying it because its not available, you aren't buying cause you aren't a fan of the brand.

That is certainly your right as you have a legit reason in your mind but not relevant to the topic. You are not a buyer in any economic environment.

[iLLGT2]

Originally Posted by Pateks

But from your post, your aren't buying it because its not available, you aren't buying cause you aren't a fan of the brand.

That is certainly your right as you have a legit reason in your mind but not relevant to the topic. You are not a buyer in any economic environment.

I guess we are derailing
I’m a fan of Patek just a bit disappointed

I am actually waiting for a 5168

So this is my current logic and situation

I guess I should’ve been more clear

Yea I will buy 5168 as I’ve wanted it since it was announced and loved my 5167 however prefer blue, gold and larger case

So it’s a go for me

But def second guess it considering past experiences

[italiafan]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With respect: The men are buying stock right now; not watches.

Correct.
Over last 3 weeks and today I have put several “grey 5711s” into broad equities....plan to continue slowly same plan for next few months.
It is nerve wracking though.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With respect: The men are buying stock right now; not watches.

.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by conkers

Lots of bargains to be had from over levered stressed sellers. Perfect!

Let’s hope


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[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With respect: The men are buying stock right now; not watches.

Touché!


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[timepieceluvr]

Call me Nero, I’ll be here playing my fiddle


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[dimag333]

If all these watches suddenly become available there are few stores I will be getting called by that I have been getting the cold shoulder, I will be whipping something out for them, won’t be my wallet

steve

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by dimag333

If all these watches suddenly become available there are few stores I will be getting called by that I have been getting the cold shoulder, I will be whipping something out for them, won’t be my wallet



steve

I'm a sucker so I'll still buy but I will ask that they have my Starbucks waiting for me.

[rayshipley]

Invest in your health and business, not watches. A watch is what you enjoy when you’ve adequately invested in those 2.

[Ichiran]

The men have already left the chatgroup because they already have all the watches they want, recession or not.

[vtsyrlin]

Totally agree with superdog.
The demand for steel patek and rolex is several orders of magnitude bigger than supply. I can see few dealers potentially reducing prices but far few in between and only marginally. I don't think your doomsday scenario will realise anytime soon

Originally Posted by superdog

All I’m seeing right now is huge gray prices for any watch I want.

I suppose if the market sell off continues I’ll wish I waited. But Im not planning to sell anyway. So, so be it.

[BaselWorld]

I expect retail prices in the US, UK, EUR zone to rise. The only stable asset in the world was - as always in such times - the CHF.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I see this and cannot help but believe this could be very bad for everyone. It needs to stop soon before supply, demand and consumer confidence are so devastated that there is no quick road back. A falling tide will eventually have all the ships stuck in the mud. Luxury anything will not be on anyone's mind when the once prosperous company they built over a lifetime is bankrupt.

World economies come to a sudden halt due to epidemic, U.S. equities markets correct 20% in two weeks, Central Banks in U.S. and Europe out of ammunition, 10 years of rampant corporate leveraging because of ultra low interest rates; with this strong economic foundation, how could anything go wrong?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by cascavel

World economies come to a sudden halt due to epidemic, U.S. equities markets correct 20% in two weeks, Central Banks in U.S. and Europe out of ammunition, 10 years of rampant corporate leveraging because of ultra low interest rates; with this strong economic foundation, how could anything go wrong?

Exactly. The debt can was kicked, the stocks were bought on leverage, in large part by corporate buybacks. There is something brewing in the repo market that requires billions a night in cash but "isn't a liquidity problem". I see nothing to invest in here until it's down to more reasonable P/E ratios.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With respect: The men are buying stock right now; not watches.

not yet...:::)))) but soon:::)))

[SpicyMikey]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

Was listening to El Erian this morning referring to pockets of illiquidity (I think)... and I was thinking;

WHERE? Where are they?

Who's struggling?





Equity correction because it's pricey? Sure I get that. It can come off - a BIT.



But there's far fewer corporate and financial balance sheets built on dog-crap-CDO's, so this absurd panic looks to me like typical overshooting.

This is not a real crisis from what I see. I am stunned how much of an overreaction this latest pandemic has generated by the public. Of course the market is reacting accordingly to the potential economic impact from this overreaction. I dont have a crystal ball of course, but I put the odds on this panic being behind us by April. At that point the govts will abandon trying to contain and prevent the spread of COVID19 and just go into managing it like the flu. The scary images of people wearing hazmat suits and quarantining ships will end, and it wont be on the news every 10 minutes. People will go back to living and life will return to normal. I've made adjustments to my portfolio but not much. Luckily I shifted away from Asian markets last year, so that is helping. But for the average guy with a few hundred thousand in an IRA/401K with 20+ years till retirement, this should not be something to worry about. In fact I think good chances are those IRA balances will be back by the end of the year. My 2 cents.

Mike

[goog53]

I dont think we are going to see 5711A-5712A-5167A-15202ST-116500-126710BLRO readily available at ADs. Models that crept up in value like 5712G/R, 5167R, 5726 on strap, 5164R I can see possibly becoming more available. IMO these pieces only became hot because clients couldnt get the first tier of sought after pieces.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by goog53

I dont think we are going to see 5711A-5712A-5167A-15202ST-116500-126710BLRO readily available at ADs. Models that crept up in value like 5712G/R, 5167R, 5726 on strap, 5164R I can see possibly becoming more available. IMO these pieces only became hot because clients couldnt get the first tier of sought after pieces.

I would pick up a 5164R in a hot second if my AD called. I hope he is watching this thread.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by goog53

I dont think we are going to see 5711A-5712A-5167A-15202ST-116500-126710BLRO readily available at ADs. Models that crept up in value like 5712G/R, 5167R, 5726 on strap, 5164R I can see possibly becoming more available. IMO these pieces only became hot because clients couldnt get the first tier of sought after pieces.

Exactly this.

[HauteHorlogerie]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With respect: The men are buying stock right now; not watches.

exactly!

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by SpicyMikey

This is not a real crisis from what I see. I am stunned how much of an overreaction this latest pandemic has generated by the public. Of course the market is reacting accordingly to the potential economic impact from this overreaction. I dont have a crystal ball of course, but I put the odds on this panic being behind us by April. At that point the govts will abandon trying to contain and prevent the spread of COVID19 and just go into managing it like the flu. The scary images of people wearing hazmat suits and quarantining ships will end, and it wont be on the news every 10 minutes. People will go back to living and life will return to normal. I've made adjustments to my portfolio but not much. Luckily I shifted away from Asian markets last year, so that is helping. But for the average guy with a few hundred thousand in an IRA/401K with 20+ years till retirement, this should not be something to worry about. In fact I think good chances are those IRA balances will be back by the end of the year. My 2 cents.

Mike

The issue is more how long this lasts, how it affects supply-chains, and how difficult it is for massively indebted corporates (and even consumers) to service debts. In isolation, Corona isn't necessarily an economically big deal - I'd argue the oil war is more dangerous, especially to many many rentier states - but if it puts pressure on the debt bubble, this could quickly spiral out of control.

And all those saying they're 'buying stocks' like it's some macho aphorism, patience is often the most under-sung virtue.

But yeah... anyone want to sell me a 5711 for list? ;)

[superdog]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

The issue is more how long this lasts, how it affects supply-chains, and how difficult it is for massively indebted corporates (and even consumers) to service debts. In isolation, Corona isn't necessarily an economically big deal - I'd argue the oil war is more dangerous, especially to many many rentier states - but if it puts pressure on the debt bubble, this could quickly spiral out of control.

And all those saying they're 'buying stocks' like it's some macho aphorism, patience is often the most under-sung virtue.

But yeah... anyone want to sell me a 5711 for list? ;)

I must agree with this statement.

No chance I am buying at this point. I would prefer some stabilization before I buy. I am more than happy to lose a little bit by buying later on the way up, than lose money by buying early on the way down. It is far less stressful.

I only buy watches as they are going down in price. No investments.