Expect even lower supply!

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

If we all do our part, including the government. They need to open up the piggy bank push 2+ trillion into the economy and we as citizens just stay home, do not go out for a couple of weeks we can peak out by April/May and get back to business by 3rd quarter. BOTH need to happen for a quick recovery. China is already in second gear, we can do the same.

Just in:

The plan calls for taxpayers to receive up to $1,200, depending on their income, with married couples eligible to receive as much as $2,400 with an additional $500 for every child. Those who make more than $99,000 and households that earn more than $198,000 won’t be eligible.

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by Chaching

When Tens of Millions of Americans are Unemployed and can’t put food on the table, loose their homes etc..... it isn’t gonna matter. I will also add the record levels of Corporate Debt Zombies out there. This is the straw that will break the Camel’s back.

I don't expect it'll get that bad; our very well capitalized banks, by federal edict, won't be able to foreclose and will be forced to forgive late/non-payments. The feds will do everything from helicopter money to targeted loans to offset the economic hits. Still, a recession is unavoidable but should be very recoverable.
There are already reports of drugs like chloroquine as being effective in slowing the effects, thus flattening the onset curve, and I think a vaccine or other treatment will come sooner than we think.
I think the predictions of doom apocalypse are extreme and not highly probable. Be prepared but stay optimistic.

And....if I got "the" call from my AD tomorrow, I'd jump on it.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

I would read this from a Professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Just in:

The plan calls for taxpayers to receive up to $1,200, depending on their income, with married couples eligible to receive as much as $2,400 with an additional $500 for every child. Those who make more than $99,000 and households that earn more than $198,000 won’t be eligible.

Well that will probably eliminate 99% of the people on this board. I personally don’t need it, I would have thrown it at 3x oil long.

[russ86]

I don't think majority of people who buy Rolex would change buying habits. For example I got a call from my AD literally 2 days ago, a watch that I was on a list for came in finally, obviously I pulled the trigger right away. Markets will stabilize eventually and everything will be back to normal.

[dkg1616]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Millions of deaths? DOW at 10k?

DOW at 10k - theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

Millions of deaths - there has only been 215k total diagnosis across the world....

Yes we are in a serious credit crunch, but being part of a bank - we are all “fine” right now - it’s going to be short and the economy “should” rebound fairly quickly.
Biggest issue is all the short term resume financing that is going to be done by the US gov.

[Roy7]

It's a business. They'll still make watches and less people will buy or worst case it'll be the same.

Who has money or wants to spend excess on novelty items?

Don't get me wrong I'd love to buy a nice Daytona but really I'd rather invest when the whole world is on sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[H25B]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

If we all do our part, including the government. They need to open up the piggy bank push 2+ trillion into the economy and we as citizens just stay home, do not go out for a couple of weeks we can peak out by April/May and get back to business by 3rd quarter. BOTH need to happen for a quick recovery. China is already in second gear, we can do the same.

This..... ^^^^

[dmash]

Originally Posted by dkg1616

Millions of deaths? DOW at 10k?

DOW at 10k - theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

Millions of deaths - there has only been 215k total diagnosis across the world....

Yes we are in a serious credit crunch, but being part of a bank - we are all “fine” right now - it’s going to be short and the economy “should” rebound fairly quickly.
Biggest issue is all the short term resume financing that is going to be done by the US gov.

I see Dow at $14k/$15k and 1mil+ infected (but not dead). I definitely think it’s going to get a bit worse and this is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s not a pessimistic outlook, it’s a preparatory mindset. It’s I’ll advised how some people (not you at all) are acting like everything will be on the up and up by May.

Originally Posted by Roy7

It's a business. They'll still make watches and less people will buy or worst case it'll be the same.

Who has money or wants to spend excess on novelty items?

Don't get me wrong I'd love to buy a nice Daytona but really I'd rather invest when the whole world is on sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Agree....this is a horrible situation with deaths/unemployment/businesses possibly going under....but in the end life will go on. I took any watch money to throw at the market. Another watch would be nice, but I’d rather see the money double within (my prediction) 2 years.

I don’t get these guys saying ‘oh if you’re squared away and you have the excess money, you will still buy watches right now’. Quite frankly, every savvy person I know would not spend ANY money on luxury goods right now, and are churning every excess penny into the market. I don’t understand some of these posters who truly believe Rolex sales are unaffected in an economic downturn. I have a feeling most of them bought way above MSRP and don’t want to face the reality of it no longer being worth that price.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

Depression, mass unemployment, millions of deaths? Hysteria much?

J/k. But my prediction is by this summer people would have got over the Corona, or found another scary thing to justify hoarding tp.

What happens to the stock market is, in my view, a reset. Some will lose a bunch and some will make bigly emerging from this.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by newu5er

I haven't been following the news to closely, but are you positive we are at 100k deaths from COVID-19?

Please get your facts straight. It’s around 10k deaths worldwide, nowhere near 100k.

FYI:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by dtwer

Depression, mass unemployment, millions of deaths? Hysteria much?

J/k. But my prediction is by this summer people would have got over the Corona, or found another scary thing to justify hoarding tp.

What happens to the stock market is, in my view, a reset. Some will lose a bunch and some will make bigly emerging from this.

I try to error on the side of caution

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Please get your facts straight. It’s around 8,000 deaths worldwide, nowhere near 100k.

FYI:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don't know why you're quoting me...I didn't come up with that figure.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by newu5er

Don't know why you're quoting me...I didn't come up with that figure.

Don’t know how that happened, apologies


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Please get your facts straight. It’s around 10k deaths worldwide, nowhere near 100k.

FYI:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, it was my mistake, I put en extra zero.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Don’t know how that happened, apologies


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No problem. Just making sure other people didn't think I was crazy and came up with it!

[sousukef]

If anyone is interested in infographics with a detailed breakdown by country, check out Tracking the spread of the Corona Virus

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Just in:

The plan calls for taxpayers to receive up to $1,200, depending on their income, with married couples eligible to receive as much as $2,400 with an additional $500 for every child. Those who make more than $99,000 and households that earn more than $198,000 won’t be eligible.

I just reread this......is that plan serious that if you made under $40,000 you won’t see a dime? that’s absurd. Yes, let’s not help out the single parent making minimum wage, no way this is what’s passed.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by snowvapor

Honestly, I don't see it being far off.

We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people.

The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much.

My own 0.02 cents.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by c41006

Where on earth are you getting that 100,000 deaths number from?

Originally Posted by c41006

It’s more like 10,000

As of this moment , current coronavirus stats....
Let’s take a deep breath and say a prayer or two ...

[gxd905]

Totally agree. Keep vigilant as we always should CV or not, but for the love, stop with this incessant hysteria. Let's keep our wits about us and keep looking for those long awaited Rolex deals.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Well that will probably eliminate 99% of the people on this board. I personally don’t need it, I would have thrown it at 3x oil long.

What's the ticker on that? Today was the day for that! I hope you did it!

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by dmash

I took any watch money to throw at the market. Another watch would be nice, but I’d rather see the money double within (my prediction) 2 years.

Agreed, but figuring out WHEN to put that money in the market is stressful. I haven't done it YET!

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

What's the ticker on that? Today was the day for that! I hope you did it!

USOU follows the actual price of crude
WTIU follows futures

[Uppersouth]

Originally Posted by jerseyb

People act like Rolex doesn't have stock ready to ship. They're not shipping units directly after they're completed. They probably have a vault filled with completed watches.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Exactly, one can store lots of those coffin boxes in a small space.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Agreed, but figuring out WHEN to put that money in the market is stressful. I haven't done it YET!

Don’t try to catch the falling knife, just buy companies with great balance sheets with a good yield. 2 years is way to far out i predict a V versus U.

[Jona]

So someone won't be able to buy another Ferrari.

[iTreelex]

Selling my sub for $50,000 plus 2 packs of TP. Firm.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Agreed, but figuring out WHEN to put that money in the market is stressful. I haven't done it YET!

I’m tiering buys, started at $20k Dow. I’m by no means a financial genius but this was also what my more savvy friends are doing as well.

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Don’t try to catch the falling knife, just buy companies with great balance sheets with a good yield. 2 years is way to far out i predict a V versus U.

Yeah I agree, I was saying 2 years as an absolute maximum of this progresses for another 6 months or so, then 18 month recovery. I think it will be way quicker than 2007, etc as you mention though.

[Smarties]

Only shut down for 10 days.....

[Jona]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Well that will probably eliminate 99% of the people on this board. I personally don’t need it, I would have thrown it at 3x oil long.

What makes you think 99% of the people here have that kind of income? I don't and I daresay many others don't either.