It appears the Rolex shortage has trickled into the DJ and DD models

[DateMasterII]

Anyone have a good link that explains the reasoning behind the shortage?

[904VT]

Originally Posted by DateMasterII

Anyone have a good link that explains the reasoning behind the shortage?

In summary the Unpegging of CHF from EUR -> BREXIT -> COVID Production -> Monetary driven Inflation = Current secondary pricing and demand

[DonRickles]

Originally Posted by DateMasterII

Anyone have a good link that explains the reasoning behind the shortage?

I suspect, it maybe an inventory related "squeeze"?

Rolex main has no more space in their safe.....it's full of the lessor popular models.....

[zab]

I guess I was lucky to find the steel DJ 36 I was looking for at the AD in April of this year. It had been sitting in the case for 2 weeks according to the salesman.

I personally find my DJ to look more expensive than my Sub and it definitely receives more compliments. Before I fell deep into this rabbit hole I would have thought a DJ would cost more than a Sub.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by DateMasterII

Anyone have a good link that explains the reasoning behind the shortage?

Where have you been?

[JSolution]

Honestly if you just buy on the secondary market you will save you save a lot of headache. Waiting years on end for a watch is mind boggling to me. I’m on a list for a watch or two who knows if it will ever happen. A lot of models are available still with only a 2/3/4 grand premium it’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things. Honestly from my experience the quicker you buy the cheaper you’ll pay.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by DateMasterII

Anyone have a good link that explains the reasoning behind the shortage?

Just common sense

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Honestly if you just buy on the secondary market you will save you save a lot of headache. Waiting years on end for a watch is mind boggling to me. I’m on a list for a watch or two who knows if it will ever happen. A lot of models are available still with only a 2/3/4 grand premium it’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things. Honestly from my experience the quicker you buy the cheaper you’ll pay.

Spot on Jay.

The longer you wait the worse it gets.

If someone is waiting for a massive change or massive shipment to drop at there local A D, as if you could even be selected, you are fooling yourself.

Meanwhile the secondary prices continue to rise rise rise rise. I hate the current situation to. Replied to many posts but I have also said F it and bought Grey to avoid even higher prices.

The ever popular Daytona could be had in December just last year in the 24-25 range and now the cheapest preowned full set is what 29's? Due to my extreme OCD everytime I go Grey I screenshot the ad from the seller among other things, so I always have saved in my iphone what I paid and when. Just what I do.

And like many here on TRF I have noticed it has gotten worse by the month and I see no end in sight. However it is somewhat nice to see that what I did buy has increased by thousands.

I even sent a sell request to some of the big websites like Bobs, Crown and Caliber, and on and on and I was shocked what they offered for my Daytona. Almost 4k more in writing then I paid less then 6 months ago.

[OttawaSteve]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

I don’t see how this is good for the brand long term. Eventually consumers will just give up on Rolex altogether.

That's like the old Yogi Berra line "No one goes there there nowadays, it’s too crowded." How can selling everything you make be bad for the brand? If some give up on Rolex, and many have, there seems to be an endless supply to take their place.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by OttawaSteve

That's like the old Yogi Berra line "No one goes there there nowadays, it’s too crowded." How can selling everything you make be bad for the brand? If some give up on Rolex, and many have, there seems to be an endless supply to take their place.

I'd bet if Rolex did a larger MSRP increase and all those same models started showing up in AD displays again, those same would come running back in a heartbeat. I think Rolex knows this. Today's situation is all about recouping R&D on the 3235s by selling as many as possible of the new DJ36 and 41 imo.

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I'd bet if Rolex did a larger MSRP increase and all those same models started showing up in AD displays again, those same would come running back in a heartbeat. I think Rolex knows this. Today's situation is all about recouping R&D on the 3235s by selling as many as possible of the new DJ36 and 41 imo.

How would Rolex applying a large retail price hike help the situation?

Not every person wants a Sub or Daytona or GMT, and not everyone wants to pay grey market prices, I certainly don’t.

All that a price hike would do is make Rolex even more unobtainable to many thousands of people, not the way Rolex wants to sell its watches.

As for your comment about R&D cost recovery the 3235 is in Sub’s and Sea Dwellers not just DJ’s, you knew that didn’t you?

[PepsiBezel]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Honestly if you just buy on the secondary market you will save you save a lot of headache. Waiting years on end for a watch is mind boggling to me. I’m on a list for a watch or two who knows if it will ever happen. A lot of models are available still with only a 2/3/4 grand premium it’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things. Honestly from my experience the quicker you buy the cheaper you’ll pay.

Just look for all the posts here circa 2017-18 ridiculing people for paying a premium and buying a 116500LN for 17-18K…

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

How would Rolex applying a large retail price hike help the situation?

Not every person wants a Sub or Daytona or GMT, and not everyone wants to pay grey market prices, I certainly don’t.

All that a price hike would do is make Rolex even more unobtainable to many thousands of people, not the way Rolex wants to sell its watches.

As for your comment about R&D cost recovery the 3235 is in Sub’s and Sea Dwellers not just DJ’s, you knew that didn’t you?

Because an increase in MSRP will decrease demand to a level closer to market equilibrium. Obviously the watches are valued greater than MSRP in most cases. We haven't seen major price increases since the introduction of the 6 digits. Rolex just gave us a de facto price increase by driving consumers up the model ranges to TT and PM.

Which models are historically the best selling? It's the DJs. Also more bejeweled and higher margin. And of course I knew that smart #$@.

[Chinballs]

Haven't been able to get a stainless DJ41 for ages here in Australia and the ADs can't even order them in. I've been waiting for a white dial, classic hour markers, smooth bezel, oyster bracelet since mid January.

The stories you see on here of people getting a SS sports model as a first watch just do not happen in the land Down Under. You're more likely to get struck by lightning while having sex with the Queen.

[sp5702]

Originally Posted by Chinballs

Haven't been able to get a stainless DJ41 for ages here in Australia and the ADs can't even order them in. I've been waiting for a white dial, classic hour markers, smooth bezel, oyster bracelet since mid January.

The stories you see on here of people getting a SS sports model as a first watch just do not happen in the land Down Under. You're more likely to get struck by lightning while having sex with the Queen.

Have you considered going grey for one? 126300s don’t attract crazy premiums, particularly when you factor in tax. Seeing a few on Moda right now for around 9k US.

Food for thought.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by HarryFlashman

Just look for all the posts here circa 2017-18 ridiculing people for paying a premium and buying a 116500LN for 17-18K…

Da** right

Those "crazy" people are laughing right now. TBH I am thrilled with the offer I got for mine from just 6 little months ago. As I stated almost 4k to the good.

Now if I could get one via my A D

No I wouldnt sell it however I would be inclined to sell the one I bought Grey

[Michael T]

I inquired about a new YG Sub and it is now an allocation item at my AD. They also had no idea about timing.

[t65tampa]

Pent up demand and folks flush with cash lead to our local ADs in the west coast of Florida sell every watch they get before it even hits the store. Sales volumes are back to maximum levels (from what I've been told), but just no dead inventory as everything finds a buyer easily.

I'm not thinking it's a bad thing nor do I think it is a permanent situation. No point in being fussy about something that is global and will surely work itself out.

[Chinballs]

Originally Posted by sp5702

Have you considered going grey for one? 126300s don’t attract crazy premiums, particularly when you factor in tax. Seeing a few on Moda right now for around 9k US.

Food for thought.

Yeah I have, but to be honest, my desire for Rolex is waning. I've bought a couple of Omegas (Speedy 1861, SMP) and a Tudor BB58 blue and am going to grab a Blancpain next instead. I'm not worried about resale or anything, I just buy what I like.

I would like the DJ but it's not a watch I'm dying to buy so I'll just wait until my AD comes through instead of paying the premium. There's just so many other great watches out there.

I just find the current situation with Rolex so disheartening for people new to the brand. I can't see it changing any time soon though.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

I don’t see how this is good for the brand long term. Eventually consumers will just give up on Rolex altogether.

people want what they can't have. it's much more cool to have a rolex when it's impossible to get one versus an omega where you walk in and it has every model available

[Calatrava r]

Does anybody really believe TT DateJusts are flying out the door so fast that Rolex cannot keep up the supply?

[sparksgmt]

I've been over it for a while. Not to many years ago the cases where always full, and it wasnt very rare to see a daytona in the case (pre ceramic). I'm playing the waiting game. Not the "add me to this list" waiting game, but rather waiting for the rolex popularity to fade which seems to come in about 10 year cycles. I suspect in a couple years well see supply/prices rising/falling to something more sustainable

[sp5702]

Originally Posted by Chinballs

Yeah I have, but to be honest, my desire for Rolex is waning. I've bought a couple of Omegas (Speedy 1861, SMP) and a Tudor BB58 blue and am going to grab a Blancpain next instead. I'm not worried about resale or anything, I just buy what I like.

I would like the DJ but it's not a watch I'm dying to buy so I'll just wait until my AD comes through instead of paying the premium. There's just so many other great watches out there.

I just find the current situation with Rolex so disheartening for people new to the brand. I can't see it changing any time soon though.

Trust me, I get it. I was just saying in another thread that for the first time ever, my watch box only has a single Rolex (BLRO GMT). My last purchases have been a Pelagos, a vintage Mk II Speedmaster and a 3861 Speedmaster (and a large Cartier Santos I didn’t hold on to).

Bought my first Rolex six years ago and the supply non-sense took the fun out of collecting the brand for me. Focusing on other watchmakers has made it more fun and enjoyable for me again.

[rtalk]

at least for 36MM, you can order DJ and DD watches (which guarantees delivery). that's a plus, I wish I could do that for other references.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

I don’t see how this is good for the brand long term. Eventually consumers will just give up on Rolex altogether.

I’ve had a number of friends inquire with me about their interest in purchasing g their first timepiece lately. Knowing of my collection and interest in horology, they ask me questions about various models—most ask about a sub. I hate having to tell them they have no chance for a model which was once synonymous with ones first luxury timepiece. The majority of these friends have opted to go with another obtainable brand rather than pay the grey market prices.

It’ll be interesting to see how this unravels in the years to come. While Rolex is hot right now, they are shutting the door on many what would be first time customers (who’s purchasing power will increase over time).

[sportsfan0704]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Does anybody really believe TT DateJusts are flying out the door so fast that Rolex cannot keep up the supply?

As someone looking for one, I can confirm this is indeed the case sadly. A year ago they were going for -1000 under retail here from trusted sellers. Now they can’t even be bought in store, and they’re not in high supply from the trusted sellers either.

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by m j b

I went to my AD for another purpose this week, and they had zip, nada, nothing in the cases, not even diamond-encrusted ladies' models.

They had recently received two shipments, but everything had been presold. I didn't bother to ask if I was still #5 on the Pepsi list (I'm not a whale, so I stay at 5 regardless of how many watches they get).

"5" is not your position on a list,; its your customer code.
1 = Grey dealer. Top access
2 = blood relatives & close friends of the owner
3 = exploitable & wealthy. A pigeon.
4 = Annoyance customer. Desperate and persistent
5 = Persona non grata

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

I don’t see how this is good for the brand long term. Eventually consumers will just give up on Rolex altogether.

If they stop buying, then stock will appear in the AD windows

[waynorth]

I think the bubble will burst eventually, but it will be many years. I'm glad I've collected a few Rolexes before this madness started. I'd pay a thousand or two over retail on the gray market if a model spoke to me, but no more than that.

It's this way with many products. I'm originally from Kentucky and used to drink Pappy Van Winkle's bourbon for $50-60 bucks a bottle. Now it's $250 a pour in some bars if they have it. Bottles of it are $3000 on ebay and the like. Rolex and certain other products just build up this hype. I blame social media.

I contacted Vacheron for perhaps buying an Overseas, but the SP told me they were all sold out, and put me on a waiting list. I can always use a new mountain bike!

[ciandro]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Its been like this already for the last 6+ months.

The only thing at ADs these days are 36mm ones IF your lucky. Mostly 31mm/28mm ladies DJs and a few Cellini's around.

Thats pretty much it.

The demand is way way too high even for pieces that cost someone's entire yearly wage. I just checked DavidSW site - YG DD40s now asking $41k!!!!!!!

Interesting though... DavidSW's prices are going up but he is buying the pieces at the same price he would months ago..