Is the return to normalcy imminent?

[Stan Cooper]

Originally Posted by brandrea

As long as demand is high, they’ll be difficult to get at an AD

It's really quite simple; Brian nails it.

[rgito]

Originally Posted by TheVision

I ended up buying the sub date again last year from a different AD (7 weeks wait and no purchase history). I still own it and just got on the waitlist for batman but my rep said they haven't received much gmt2 this year at all and said this one will take a while. I have my 50th coming up next year so she said she'll try her best

I am in the same situation. I put my name on the list 2 years ago with the AD closest (2hrs away) for a BLNR for me and a "Starbucks" for my son. Just got "the call" on Friday last for the LV. Son has decided to pass. My 60th bday is next week and no dice. Like you, my SA says she has seen 2 BLNR all year. Conversely LV are "no longer a rare occurrence" at her AD these last few months.

[blswan]

Am I the only one that thinks the hype is part of the cool factor? I like the exclusivity and “chase” of an AD sale. Even though I’ve been frustrated that after almost three years I had to go grey. It’s just part of the market with all things coveted. I paid well over for my 911 Targa GTS too, but it’s probably held value more than any of my other pricey cars.

[Goldmansockz]

Originally Posted by blswan

Am I the only one that thinks the hype is part of the cool factor? I like the exclusivity and “chase” of an AD sale. Even though I’ve been frustrated that after almost three years I had to go grey. It’s just part of the market with all things coveted. I paid well over for my 911 Targa GTS too, but it’s probably held value more than any of my other pricey cars.

I’m honestly with you. Probably wouldn’t care for the batgirl if it didn’t hold value well / was hard to get. Same reason why I don’t care for Grand Seikos or Omega as much as I used to.

[Zerouali]

Originally Posted by Goldmansockz

I’m honestly with you. Probably wouldn’t care for the batgirl if it didn’t hold value well / was hard to get. Same reason why I don’t care for Grand Seikos or Omega as much as I used to.

Let’s hope they become easy to get and drop in value then.

Then those of us that actually want the watch to wear and keep will get one and the hype monsters can move onto something else.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by Goldmansockz

I’m honestly with you. Probably wouldn’t care for the batgirl if it didn’t hold value well / was hard to get. Same reason why I don’t care for Grand Seikos or Omega as much as I used to.

Agree. One of the great things about a Rolex is that you can ease yourself into the purchase by reminding yourself that your net worth isn't really shifting. As you say, that can't be said about GS or Omega in general.

Meanwhile, those who treat issues like net worth with disdain have the grey market to fall back on.

[thesultan57]

In the UK, yes 100%. Between my brother and I we have picked up 3 x Submariner ‘Starbucks’ in the last 2 weeks. One of them was with zero spend history and delivered in 2 days.

They’ve got pretty much everything in stock ( maybe this was always the case ) so it’s just a matter of them wanting to make the sale.


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[CH69]

I think new normalcy means watches are available at ADs (most models anyways)….but i think the days over discount at AD won’t come back

Grey market used to exist before the hype where u can save a few bucks (and not pay a premium) for the same watch without the AD experience cos the watch is from overseas or someone wanting to let go for a reason or slightly used. If it goes back to that, new normalcy (my definition) will come.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by thesultan57

In the UK, yes 100%. Between my brother and I we have picked up 3 x Submariner ‘Starbucks’ in the last 2 weeks. One of them was with zero spend history and delivered in 2 days.

They’ve got pretty much everything in stock ( maybe this was always the case ) so it’s just a matter of them wanting to make the sale.


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I wonder if the widely reported millionaire exodus from the UK (pending changes to non-dom status / IH status) is already being reflected in sales of high end luxury goods?

That, of course, and broader economic uncertainty and downward pressure on disposable incomes (combined with the general uncertainty on future taxes)?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by thesultan57

In the UK, yes 100%. Between my brother and I we have picked up 3 x Submariner ‘Starbucks’ in the last 2 weeks. One of them was with zero spend history and delivered in 2 days.

They’ve got pretty much everything in stock ( maybe this was always the case ) so it’s just a matter of them wanting to make the sale.


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I call BS. As London is notorious for all the ADs sharing an internal system and usually one entry of interest at one place and that's it. They're certainly not selling your family with the same last name, 3 of the same watch in 2 weeks. Unless it was a super undesirable lady date just two tone model. Straight up, BS, calling it.

[thesultan57]

Originally Posted by EverCloserUnion

I wonder if the widely reported millionaire exodus from the UK (pending changes to non-dom status / IH status) is already being reflected in sales of high end luxury goods?

That, of course, and broader economic uncertainty and downward pressure on disposable incomes (combined with the general uncertainty on future taxes)?

I cannot comment with certainty on your first point however it certainly makes sense that this will have an impact. Many Rolex buyers, such as myself, are far from ‘millionaires’ however if these people are leaving then this would reduce pressure lower down the purchasing ‘food chain’ so to speak.

The general economic situation has a direct effect without question, however some brands can navigate this better than others, look at Hermes for example.


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[thesultan57]

Originally Posted by dmash

I call BS. As London is notorious for all the ADs sharing an internal system and usually one entry of interest at one place and that's it. They're certainly not selling your family with the same last name, 3 of the same watch in 2 weeks. Unless it was a super undesirable lady date just two tone model. Straight up, BS, calling it.

Unless within the same group (WoS for example) I have never heard, or seen any evidence or reason for ADs to share any information between each other. Why on earth would they? They are competitors who want to see more than the other.

For mine, one was from a large London AD and the other two were from a small local one who delivered 2 precisely because we are brothers and they wanted us to have a matching pair.

I was surprised by this, but they also had a room at the back with pretty much every single model ready for pickup , including the ‘puzzle day date’ which is meant to be one of the rarest watches Rolex produce.




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[Moondoggy]

Just visited 12 different countries, many people lining up waiting forever to buy nothing. It’s a sh*tshow on steroids, the brands class is diminishing imo, people just happy for selfies in the store. I bought a cracking Panerai 8 day manual great experience, love it.

Don’t get me wrong I love my Rolexes but I don’t want to look like a Insta flog.

Also wear what you want through Europe/Nordic countries no one gives a crap.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by thesultan57

Unless within the same group (WoS for example) I have never heard, or seen any evidence or reason for ADs to share any information between each other. Why on earth would they? They are competitors who want to see more than the other.

For mine, one was from a large London AD and the other two were from a small local one who delivered 2 precisely because we are brothers and they wanted us to have a matching pair.

I was surprised by this, but they also had a room at the back with pretty much every single model ready for pickup , including the ‘puzzle day date’ which is meant to be one of the rarest watches Rolex produce.




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You trying on a watch proves absolutely nothing and tons of ADs have watches like that for vvvvvip. I’ve tried on an eye of the tiger Daytona in the back, doesn’t mean I had a chance to get it. And especially not that you got THREE SS Rolex within 14 days in LONDON of all places.

But again, whatever you want to claim on the forum. Carry on

[thesultan57]

Originally Posted by dmash

You trying on a watch proves absolutely nothing and tons of ADs have watches like that for vvvvvip. I’ve tried on an eye of the tiger Daytona in the back, doesn’t mean I had a chance to get it. And especially not that you got THREE SS Rolex within 14 days in LONDON of all places.

But again, whatever you want to claim on the forum. Carry on

That’s interesting, I assumed, perhaps wrongly that the ultra ‘rare’ models such as the puzzle dial / eye of tiger etc were , well, ultra rare, and their total numbers were measured in 2 / low 3 digits. But you say that there are tons of ADs with them so perhaps nothing is as it seems now days….

I spoke to the major London AD and they had never seen a puzzle dial and when I showed them the picture of one at our small out of town AD they were stunned.

Of course this model was not for sale, it was directly approved by Geneva for a high spending local client who hadn’t picked it up yet. In my opinion they shouldn’t be letting people try it on but I’m not going to complain lol

As stated above , ours were not all from London. Only one from a major AD. The other two were an out of town local AD, complete different relationship.

My experience is, as long as you don’t bother them regularly, when you actually seriously ask, then they deliver within 10days. That was the case for my Pepsi, Batman, Black sub etc

However I was very surprised at my brothers 2 day turnaround with zero relationship, however I guess it’s just down to timing and luck


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[ClintonM3]

Not sure what happened or if anything happened at all. A lot of YouTubers released videos on this exact topic of how prices "plummeted" "market collapsing" demand is decreasing, etc, in the last few days. Maybe they all had their own chat and decided to talk about the same thing.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by ClintonM3

Not sure what happened or if anything happened at all. A lot of YouTubers released videos on this exact topic of how prices "plummeted" "market collapsing" demand is decreasing, etc, in the last few days. Maybe they all had their own chat and decided to talk about the same thing.

I noticed that too. Knowing it’s all about getting views and not necessarily accuracy, I assume they each saw metrics that this topic was generating a high click rate.


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[IS2000]

I just talked to fellow enthusiast who is working at a large watch dealer in Bangkok (which happens to be a Rolex AD). I was just asking for a Tag Heuer Monaco green panda and a salmon GP Laureato. We had a good chat and he admired my watch. Then I asked how Rolex is doing since the business is quite slow nowadays. He said his dealer is getting way less watches from Rolex than before. So I think Rolex won’t make it too easy to get hot watches even as demand is shrinking.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by IS2000

I just talked to fellow enthusiast who is working at a large watch dealer in Bangkok (which happens to be a Rolex AD). I was just asking for a Tag Heuer Monaco green panda and a salmon GP Laureato. We had a good chat and he admired my watch. Then I asked how Rolex is doing since the business is quite slow nowadays. He said his dealer is getting way less watches from Rolex than before. So I think Rolex won’t make it too easy to get hot watches even as demand is shrinking.

That line is really interesting.
I assumed that Rolex would have a contracted obligation to provide ADs with a given number of watches (given that investing in the development of a Rolex centre can't be cheap, and the dealers will want some idea of likely return on investment).
Is it seriously a case of 'take what comes and hope for the best'?

[fsprow]

As long as demand significantly exceeds supply, market prices (reseller) will exceed MSRP. If demand is lower than supply, market prices will be less than MSRP. Sometimes there are short term dislocations but they cannot be sustained.

Pretty simple. Been a commodities trader for many years.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by fsprow

As long as demand significantly exceeds supply, market prices (reseller) will exceed MSRP. If demand is lower than supply, market prices will be less than MSRP. Sometimes there are short term dislocations but they cannot be sustained.

Pretty simple. Been a commodities trader for many years.

I know nothing about kommodittys but makes sense to me. Demand is still high!


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by fsprow

As long as demand significantly exceeds supply, market prices (reseller) will exceed MSRP. If demand is lower than supply, market prices will be less than MSRP. Sometimes there are short term dislocations but they cannot be sustained.

Pretty simple. Been a commodities trader for many years.

Yes, I don’t think anyone is arguing this point, and anyone who took an introductory economics class understands demand/supply curves.

I think this thread is more so a discourse on where demand (and to a lesser degree, supply) will be

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Yes, I don’t think anyone is arguing this point, and anyone who took an introductory economics class understands demand/supply curves.

I think this thread is more so a discourse on where demand (and to a lesser degree, supply) will be

Quite true and I've also learned that trying to predict either is a fools errand. Money is made by commodity traders by looking for temporary dislocations in supply or demand - often lasting a fraction of a day. Not by attempting to predict the future.

[MILGAUSS88]

Originally Posted by Phlippe

The watch market is never going back to it old pre-pandemic normal as to much has changed in the watch industry. For a market to bottom dealers need to exit the market place, currently there’s still to much inventory at grey dealers and most of it was bought at to high of a cost.

Never say never.
I have been in the antique market for 50 years.
What I knew for the first 25 years was completely turned on its head for the last 25 years.

What I experienced the first 25 years was half of my sales going to other dealers who thought they could get more money, for the items I sold to them.
The other half was to end buyers. Sounds a lot like what we had in the watch market the last 5 years.

Today, in the antique market, it is more like 10% to other dealers and 90% to end buyers. And prices have dropped dramatically.

With prices dropping in watches, dramatically in some cases, I am betting there is less dealer to dealer sales. I know, I saw less at the last NAWCC national. This could cause dealers to drop out, and see lower prices in the future.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

Never say never.
I have been in the antique market for 50 years.
What I knew for the first 25 years was completely turned on its head for the last 25 years.

What I experienced the first 25 years was half of my sales going to other dealers who thought they could get more money, for the items I sold to them.
The other half was to end buyers. Sounds a lot like what we had in the watch market the last 5 years.

Today, in the antique market, it is more like 10% to other dealers and 90% to end buyers. And prices have dropped dramatically.

With prices dropping in watches, dramatically in some cases, I am betting there is less dealer to dealer sales. I know, I saw less at the last NAWCC national. This could cause dealers to drop out, and see lower prices in the future.

Reminds me of my Dads favorite quote:

“It’s amazing how much you will learn after you know it all”


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[BNA/LION]

Everything goes in "Cycles" including watches. Demand Vs. Supply in anything is the key to prices. Unfortunately, when manufacturers create shortages and increase in demand goes up the prices get crazy high and it seems to create more demand.

Personally I think Rolex wants it this way. They have been making a move on the secondary market and resellers to slow them down but not releasing more product. Will they get to the point where they release more product, level out prices and make watches easier to get and more cost accessible? I doubt it.

[MILGAUSS88]

I certainly hope the market doesn't come crashing down. Few would hurt more than me.
But I know the reality of what can happen to a market from past experience.

I believe if the market did crash all the "collectors" that had been cheering for it would suddenly turn on their whining mode, and start complaining about watches being a depreciating asset again.

[blswan]

Originally Posted by Zerouali

Let’s hope they become easy to get and drop in value then.

Then those of us that actually want the watch to wear and keep will get one and the hype monsters can move onto something else.

On top of being a crappy thing to say it has nothing to do with my honesty about the novelty of rare items. I bought mine to keep and wear too.

As far as your second comment goes, nobody “needs” a Rolex. Perhaps instead of whining about price you look for something that’s more comfortable in your price point without the hype rather than wishing ill on others.

[Zerouali]

Originally Posted by blswan

On top of being a crappy thing to say it has nothing to do with my honesty about the novelty of rare items. I bought mine to keep and wear too.

As far as your second comment goes, nobody “needs” a Rolex. Perhaps instead of whining about price you look for something that’s more comfortable in your price point without the hype rather than wishing ill on others.

What are you talking about?

First of all, my reply was not to you but to the next poster who specifically stated they would no longer be interested in the batgirl if it didn’t hold it’s value or was easy to get. As someone who just wants the watch to wear that would be music to my ears as that’s exactly the watch I want.

I never mentioned anything about needing a Rolex, I said people that want them to wear.

Lastly, I have the money in my account waiting to buy the watch but other than cars I’m not keen on buying anything second hand. Even my last three homes have been new builds.

I just want to buy my watch brand new from Rolex, is that really asking so much?

[Zach69SS]

Op, here is what you will need to accomplish a Rolex from the AD, 1) a spend history. 2) a model that is not in high demand. 3) luck with all of the above.

I’ve seen some ridiculous things at Ads in the past 2 years and it’s very frustrating but this is the game we have chosen. Some Ads I have visited you will never get a piece , not even an Air king or even a date just.

Also based on some of the treads on TRF some people don’t have these issues. So I have learned that, it depends on where you live, the market and the AD you choose, most Ads have so many people walking in on a daily basis, asking for this piece or that one they can afford to be rude and not care. I have noticed this on my ADs visits, they just blow them off or send them somewhere else.

This is why so many people go grey and pay a premium and not deal with the BS or the AD dance.

Find the right AD first, this will be the hardest thing to do but not impossible.