How likely is a price retreat?

[macrowatch]

If women en masse decide to start wearing SS sports watches, then 0%.

If Zuckerberg is right and we go to to Matrix metaverse, then 100%.

If it's a zombie apocalypse but the zombies are more like Walkind Dead slow ones, think the DD will do just fine. But if the Zombies are fast running, then only Daytona's will be attractive to time your speed relative to the zombie.

[Tensai]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

Is it possible to just make all “value” threads it’s own sub forum?

The only thing more annoying than these speculation threads is people posting in them how much they bought a watch for and when.

It’s getting old, and no one cares how much you paid. It’s a sad attempt at making others think you are somehow special.

+100! So many incredibly boring self-important people on this watch forum!

[gerry100]

the market will fluctuate

[Stranger]

I suspect a large portion of the market for SS Rolexes is highly sensitive to the economy. If the economy takes a big hit, demands for those timepieces with slow down materially. I don't think it will result in price drops at ADs but it might result in shorter waits and a blood bath among grey dealers.

[TheVTCGuy]

The odds are about the same as Jesus opening up an AD.


Hey! Who’s the guy with the beard?

[fsprow]

Perhaps in the metaverse we will be able to wear the watch of our choice that doesn't exist in physical form. If I want a Daytona, there it is on my wrist !

[GGGMT]

Price retreat happen yet?


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[m j b]

I agree with everything that has been suggested in this thread. Everyone is correct.

Except those who are wrong, and you guys know who you are. Knock it off!

So, the answer is yes. No, wait, no. The answer is no.

Wait, what was the question?

[Daytonaboy1977]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Well said and I have to agree too. I can't see this reverting anytime soon. The demands simply outweigh any attempt to supply a higher volume of watches to the market. Unless they open further manufacturing facilities etc but then then would need to train specialist technician etc. I work in recruitment within the engineering sector and the raw trainable manpower to increase volumes simply isn't there and it's a European problem. Throwing money at facilities simply won't help. I can't see any quick fix to this problem and therefore don't see a change in the current market conditions unless a drastic worldwide problem occurs.

[Laostuh]

If you want it buy it, don't think about it. The Hulk at $14k seemed expensive I was hoping it would go back down, it never did. In fact, it kept going up. So I bought in at $20.8k and its still going up..

[MountEverest]

It is my belief that these exorbitant prices can't continue to climb. There is always a reason that brings markets back down to earth. My watch portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 the past two years. There is no doubt (in my opinion) that the Rolex market will retreat. The problem is nobody knows when this will happen.

I think you have to just play the game until the music stops, this is all about money. If you have the money, buy the watch and enjoy it and building genuine relationships at your local AD won't hurt either.

[RolexSimon]

No retreat would be my prediction.

[Db7566]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

If Rolex prices on the preowned market retreat to MSRP, that would mean the economy (global) got mollywhoped, and getting a Rolex will be the last thing on your mind.

This. So yes it will happen. Hopefully not soon.


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[omx5o]

I think it's more likely the price of everything else will rise to catch up with luxury goods. It's the only solution to a global debt problem.

[Ensign]

I think there is a chance. The new warranty cards could slow the flow of watches from ADs to greys. Also, Rolex does seem to have increased production. Could the market ever be saturated? Like a point where all the collectors have full watch boxes? Maybe.

[Jsol]

Rolex would need significant growth and investment In the highly skilled and technical training of watchmakers. Or Instagram has to ban any flex content and kill demand. My local chipotle can't even hire entry level and Instagram has 400 million stories posting a day and growing.


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[hambone1983]

remember when Apple watches were in the process of destroying the Swiss watch industry? Those were the days.

[amanbra]

The current economy is a house of cards on the back of ridiculously low interest rates and money printing. I’m a firm believer it will collapse at some point. No idea when. There will be a time when watches aren’t all that important to most.


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[fwhawk]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Or we have a bubble like the Ferrari bubble of about 30 years ago, in which case prices suddenly fall.

Right now the "prevailing wisdom" is you had better buy now because you'll have to pay more next week. If prices falter, that assessment will reverse and the prevailing thought will be why would I buy now when the price will be lower next week. When buyers dry up, you'd be surprised how fast prices can drop..

In my view, there is no sustainable reason these mass produced watches (as nice as they are) should be going for several times their MSRP. The problem with bubbles though, is that you never know when they are going to burst.

This is just my opinion, but I rode the Ferrari bubble up...and then all the way back down so I've seen what can happen.

[donas]

Originally Posted by amanbra

The current economy is a house of cards on the back of ridiculously low interest rates and money printing. I’m a firm believer it will collapse at some point. No idea when. There will be a time when watches aren’t all that important to most.
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In all honesty, I'd say watches aren't important to most now. Every now and again, when pursuing TRF, I forget I'm not amongst "normal" people...(not an insult, I'm here with everyone)

[Uhtred59]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Hope is a method

[Moondoggy]

Interest rates, when I do not know.

[amanbra]

Originally Posted by donas

In all honesty, I'd say watches aren't important to most now. Every now and again, when pursuing TRF, I forget I'm not amongst "normal" people...(not an insult, I'm here with everyone)

What I mean by that is for people currently into watches collectors with free cash will reduce and “investors” will get realise money costs a lot.


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[s7horton]

The social media craze plays a role in the current state of affairs. For them, it’s a trend. When it stops being a trend for them (it will), it’ll be interesting to see how the market shifts.

[Satykush]

Originally Posted by fwhawk

Or we have a bubble like the Ferrari bubble of about 30 years ago, in which case prices suddenly fall.

Right now the "prevailing wisdom" is you had better buy now because you'll have to pay more next week. If prices falter, that assessment will reverse and the prevailing thought will be why would I buy now when the price will be lower next week. When buyers dry up, you'd be surprised how fast prices can drop..

In my view, there is no sustainable reason these mass produced watches (as nice as they are) should be going for several times their MSRP. The problem with bubbles though, is that you never know when they are going to burst.

This is just my opinion, but I rode the Ferrari bubble up...and then all the way back down so I've seen what can happen.

Very good insight. My only submission is that the nouveau rich while lapping up any and every exotic model of Rolex will at some point stop. And they have no real love for watches or horology. And with other asset classes becoming as desirable, the current rise will inevitably slow down. Once the prices start to taper off, the crazy demand (from status buyers and not watch lovers) will drop. It’s going to happen in 2-3 years. In economic terms, while a luxury good, there are still high horology status oriented watches (and a very large number) that are still out there. Therefore substitutes do exist.


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[teck21]

I started a thread like this for fun, but I’m not sure why it’s such a big thing for many.

Anyone too clever to be making more money now so as to be able to comfortably afford a Rolex at ‘today’s ridiculous prices’ will likely also be too clever to buy one when prices really tank (too clever to buy at anything other than the bottom) and eventually end up paying more long after the market has recovered.


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[telesquire]

I don't think they will 'tank' just slow down. One other thing to consider is that your new 2021/2 shiny Rolex will age and not be the latest most desirable model. If Rolex carries on refreshing models yours will get left behind to a certain extent.
For example look at the Yacht Master. A early 2000's full set in clean condition is £8000....and new Rhodium dial YM is £20k. A 15 yr old SS Daytona is £22k whilst a new desirable SS Panda is £40k+.An old Air King is £4k a new one £10k. Today's Panda's and Rhodium dial watches etc have the ability to be left behind when they become the older model in town. The market is more fashion orientated than it was in the past, so we can't really look backwards. The young wealthy Instagram brigade only want the latest thing....the FOMO crowd. You'd have to wait till the older models become 'retro' and desirable again maybe like a 1016 or a 6536 and then hope real watch collectors want them, of course numbers produced will have a hand in that market too.

[Greglaw]

Definitelyyesnomaybeunlikelylikelyyupnopeabsolupos itivelynotyes

[Greglaw]

Originally Posted by teck21

I started a thread like this for fun, but I’m not sure why it’s such a big thing for many.

Anyone too clever to be making more money now so as to be able to comfortably afford a Rolex at ‘today’s ridiculous prices’ will likely also be too clever to buy one when prices really tank (too clever to buy at anything other than the bottom) and eventually end up paying more long after the market has recovered.


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posts over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over. Your post wasn't clever, so why should you get clever responses? As we say in the law, asked and answered. In this case, a ridiculous number of times over and over and over and over.

[Roli4life]

I think the prices will go up and down slightly but by next year they will be significantly higher than they are now.