5711 in a bubble or the new norm?

[pam66]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Everything is quantifiable, and there's nothing in katapatek's analysis which can't be read in a newspaper. But the sad fact remains that nobody can really tell exactly what will happen, and more importantly when it will happen. Meanwhile, there is a big disconnect between the rising Nautilus asking prices and the falling markets.

particularly given that the prices of most nautilus have started to rise seriously in spring 2018. i'd like to see that macroeconomic explanation of this phenomenon.

[karasus]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Any steel nautilus once discontinued will skyrocket. Look at 5980/1a black dial. I used to buy it from AD for just 40k. Regardless of economic issue, 85k is the current asking price.

New 5711 blue (new dial) is selling at 60k here in asian market. 45k is a big bargain. It will go up a lot more. One day sooner or later patek will announce the discontinuation anyway. Good time to buy imo.

For that price your could get a 3700 in good condition, which one would you get a 5711 or an original Genta designed 3700 with two case construction?

[pam66]

Originally Posted by karasus

For that price your could get a 3700 in good condition, which one would you get a 5711 or an original Genta designed 3700 with two case construction?

also, how many 3700 were produced and how many 5711A?

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by karasus

For that price your could get a 3700 in good condition, which one would you get a 5711 or an original Genta designed 3700 with two case construction?

Buying used, at those prices, I'd go 3700. But I'd venture to say people paying current grey market prices for a 5711 could care less about Genta, Patek as a brand, and case construction. The grey dealers selling 5711s at current grey market prices could care less about the watch enthusiast who values Genta, Patek as a brand, and case construction.

I would love to see Patek reissue the 3700 while keeping the 5711 in the catalog.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by pam66

also, how many 3700 were produced and how many 5711A?

Mstanga has estimated the following production numbers.

3700-01A (steel with large bracelet): about 3500
3700-11A (steel with narrow bracelet): about 1300
3700-1AJ (steel and gold with large bracelet): about 600
3700-11AJ (steel and gold with narrow bracelet): about 300
3700-1J and 3700-11J (yellow gold): about 1500 (the diamond versions
are included)
3700-1G and 3700-11G (white gold): about 65
3700-1P(platinum): 1

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

Mstanga has estimated the following production numbers.

3700-01A (steel with large bracelet): about 3500
3700-11A (steel with narrow bracelet): about 1300
3700-1AJ (steel and gold with large bracelet): about 600
3700-11AJ (steel and gold with narrow bracelet): about 300
3700-1J and 3700-11J (yellow gold): about 1500 (the diamond versions
are included)
3700-1G and 3700-11G (white gold): about 65
3700-1P(platinum): 1

cool. and what are the estimates for 5711A? at least a factor of 5 up to now i suppose.

[wulin]

Originally Posted by pam66

cool. and what are the estimates for 5711A? at least a factor of 5 up to now i suppose.

5711 has been in production for over 10 years. There got to be 10000+ of them.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by pam66

particularly given that the prices of most nautilus have started to rise seriously in spring 2018. i'd like to see that macroeconomic explanation of this phenomenon.

irrational exuberance at the bubble top + niche fad of particular style.

here's a little horror show fact that explains some of the Chinese madness (being close to money printing helps and their offspring creating bubbles in luxury baubles like Patek):

"The PBOC released its annual "Financial Stability Report" Friday night....it's a real page turner. The Chinese have "created" US$50.1 Trillion in "Junk Financial Assets" in just four short years"; to wit:

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2019/01/

that's 50 TRILLION USD in 4 years! printed out of thin air! to prop up fraud! and is it any wonder why certain niche luxury brands do well?

ps edit: at the end of all bubbles you get aberrations and last gasps, and it seems like the less expensive (relative to say homes which are crashing) luxury price spikes, this nautilus nonsense being excellent bubblicious case in point.

[Kittayos]

Originally Posted by karasus

For that price your could get a 3700 in good condition, which one would you get a 5711 or an original Genta designed 3700 with two case construction?

Look at 3700/1a price again. If you have one with original box and paper or the whole set in great or mint condition, there are lots of people willing to 100k for it.

https://www.bonhams.com/auctions/24632/lot/98/

Sold for 189k.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

irrational exuberance at the bubble top + niche fad of particular style.

The Nautilus is niche, but it's not a passing fad, it's a well-established iconic watch. Which I'm guessing is why you want one, and also why you want prices to come down.

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

The Nautilus is niche, but it's not a passing fad, it's a well-established iconic watch. Which I'm guessing is why you want one, and also why you want prices to come down.

I believe the current, hyper interest in the 5711 could be aptly described as a fad. Definitely a wave.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

The Nautilus is niche, but it's not a passing fad, it's a well-established iconic watch. Which I'm guessing is why you want one, and also why you want prices to come down.

you are not understanding. it's not either/or.

edit: i want prices to come down precisely because this icon is in its fad phase and the prices will come down. i don't want the specific model because it is an icon or signals anything to anyone. i actually by accident stumbled across the design (for design's sake) and then i saw the ask and was slackjawed at price. so i started doing research vs seeing some IG account and wanting to be a part of the fad.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

I believe the current, hyper interest in the 5711 could be aptly described as a fad. Definitely a wave.

some people really just are not seeing it. nothing anyone can type to help.

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Look at 3700/1a price again. If you have one with original box and paper or the whole set in great or mint condition, there are lots of people willing to 100k for it.

https://www.bonhams.com/auctions/24632/lot/98/

Sold for 189k.

To be fair, this example has a signed dialed, but yeah, $80,000 to $100,000 more often than not.

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

some people really just are not seeing it. nothing anyone can type to help.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

we wrote "fad" at exact same time. lol.

some people really just are not seeing it. nothing anyone can type to help.

I think you are seeing what you want to see, but it doesn't add up.

Markets down, Nautilus up. Is Nautilus the new gold?

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I think you are seeing what you want to see, but it doesn't add up.

Markets down, Nautilus up. Is Nautilus the new gold?

you don't understand econ 101. it's not as linear as you think it might be. re-read what i wrote above and think about it. you can find many examples.

and re: gold - it is incredibly manipulated. the paper to physical ratio is OVER 200:1. that is extreme hypothecation. some estimate 1000:1.

here's another fact for you re: gold: Annual gold trading between LBMA banks is OVER 70x all the gold ever mined!

so careful how you equate fraud manipulation w/ mini-bubbles.

ps: "markets" are not down on a QE/buyback/fraud adjusted basis. LOL and inflation adjusted, we are still at ZIRP or if you look at real inflation we are still in NIRP!

[rolexpatek363]

Economics cannot be understood: there are different economic models, and it's not a science.

What I do know is that anybody claiming that they know which way things are heading is merely speculating.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Economics cannot be understood: there are different economic models, and it's not a science.

What I do know is that anybody claiming that they know which way things are heading is speculating.

maybe not understood by someone that doesn't understand, and that's accounting for much of econ being bs. we're talking psychology/herd mentality (in ultra niche) + math + a smidgen of finance and econ. you can believe and comprehend what you want. you can even ignore the watch price corrections from the last troughs of the last few crashes. it's all good.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

much of econ being bs.

One thing we can agree on, apart from the Nautilus being an extremely desirable watch.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

One thing we can agree on, apart from the Nautilus being an extremely desirable watch.

the problem is that sadly Keynesian econ is the religion of the current central planning order and crazies like Krugman. not all econ is bs. not all models are consistently wrong. etc.

someone in this forum wrote that a couple of years ago nautilus were not being sold much...

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

you don't understand econ 101.

As John Wayne was fond of saying, "those are tall words." I frequently wonder why some TRF members feel the need to display a lack of civility towards other members. Do you know what Rolexpatek363 does for a living, where he went to univerity/grad school, details of his life experience? If not, then your words are poorly chosen. Simply agree to disagree.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

As John Wayne was fond of saying, "those are tall words." I frequently wonder why some TRF members feel the need to display a lack of civility towards other members. Do you know what Rolexpatek363 does for a living, where he went to univerity/grad school, details of his life experience? If not, then your words are poorly chosen. Simply agree to disagree.

i disagree with your above statement. heh. & it wasn't meant as a slight on his overall intellect or knowledge, but was specific to how he was responding to certain points. no offense intended.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

i disagree with your above statement. heh. & it wasn't meant as a slight on his overall intellect or knowledge, but was specific to how he was responding to certain points. no offense intended.

No worries. And now back to our scheduled 5711 discussion...

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

i disagree with your above statement. heh. & it wasn't meant as a slight on his overall intellect or knowledge, but was specific to how he was responding to certain points. no offense intended.

None taken. I have a quant trader in the family.

[The Argonaut]

It occurs to me that the PP part of TRF is like reading the comments section of the Financial Times (which I read as part of work, amongst others). Whilst there are always wild and wacky points made by the inevitable trolls, in the main, the quality of commentary is pretty high.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by pam66

particularly given that the prices of most nautilus have started to rise seriously in spring 2018. i'd like to see that macroeconomic explanation of this phenomenon.

Depends where you are, in the UK 2017 saw large gains as did SS Rolexes off the back of the Brexit bump in 16. This bull market for PP and Rolex is now nearly 2.5 years old, and it is anyone's guess how long watch cycles last and how econ factors really affect it or can stop its momentum.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

irrational exuberance at the bubble top + niche fad of particular style.

ps edit: at the end of all bubbles you get aberrations and last gasps, and it seems like the less expensive (relative to say homes which are crashing) luxury price spikes, this nautilus nonsense being excellent bubblicious case in point.

You are trying to say this is the top, but you are new here and we were saying the market was toppy this time last year after large rises during 16 and 17 so no one can predict what is the top or indeed how long a plateau at the top will last or what will cause the bubble to burst or rather balloon to deflate. This is a watch market and it quite unlike any other in terms of efficiency and liquidity, and thus we are just all really watching and learning.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by AK797

You are trying to say this is the top, but you are new here and we were saying the market was toppy this time last year after large rises during 16 and 17 so no one can predict what is the top or indeed how long a plateau at the top will last or what will cause the bubble to burst or rather balloon to deflate. This is a watch market and it quite unlike any other in terms of efficiency and liquidity, and thus we are just all really watching and learning.

I agree 100%.

A year ago 50k was utterly unthinkable. I am sort-of jesting with my 100k prediction, but anything can seemingly happen in this market, and I don't see any loss of momentum yet.

[mazizata]

It seems that an "invisible" hand pushing up the auction prices for 5711. I have seen quiet a few being sale around 50k +/- 2k, but a few auctions ended up higher than 55k.