Rolex - keep cutting supply of sports models please!! (What say you?)

[HL65]

Originally Posted by VicLeChic

The scarcity of profesional SS watches (due to unexpected high demand) creates frustration and aggravation for buyers with the risk eventually of losing customers to other brands. I don't see how this is good for Rolex. It's only good for owners of the scarce models. I believe this is the reason Rolex are trying to clamp down on greys and flippers to address the long waiting problem.

Then switch to other brands and when you see your watches worth 50% of what you paid you will come back to Rolex as you will not like knowing you bought a watch that has awful resale. Trust me we would have thousands of threads of people whining about poor value retention one of attributes that makes Rolex strong. Again this is the same exact thing PP and AP are doing as well. It's all about supply and demand and tight supply is a very attractive quality of a luxury item for all owners. So to each his own and I am quite sure Breitling, Omega, Panerai, IWC and JLC would love to have strong value retention for their watches but...

[kzm40]

McLaren cars worked out that to hold residual value, there needs to be a wait list, and the optimum length for their cars is around one year.

Rolex's only model with a significant wait list was the SS daytona, with slight delays on the more diserable sports models. Now it apears to have spread to all the sports models, I'm not sure whether its limited supply or the rise again of the chinese consumption, they apparently account for a third of luxury good global sales, and now its reshoring, instead of buying when they're abroad. And maybe Rolex is favouring its newer markets first?

[1William]

I would prefer that Rolex supplies the models that they manufacturer to AD's. The game they are playing will have a negative impact on the brand if it continues. The speculation could be stopped with a statement from Rolex about what they are doing and why. The manner that Rolex and PP have decided to go is a decision which will impact the brands for years. Greed and arrogance at a certain level has always been apart of the watch industry but we seem to be reaching new heights.

[VicLeChic]

Originally Posted by HL65

Then switch to other brands and when you see your watches worth 50% of what you paid you will come back to Rolex as you will not like knowing you bought a watch that has awful resale. Trust me we would have thousands of threads of people whining about poor value retention one of attributes that makes Rolex strong. Again this is the same exact thing PP and AP are doing as well. It's all about supply and demand and tight supply is a very attractive quality of a luxury item for all owners. So to each his own and I am quite sure Breitling, Omega, Panerai, IWC and JLC would love to have strong value retention for their watches but...

Agreed on the depreciation in general but there are many exceptions. I'll mention a couple, both bought new from AD.

- my PO2500C cost me the equivalent of 2,240 euros 15 yrs ago and is now worth 2,700 preowned.

- my Breitling Seawolf cost me 2,200 5 yrs ago and is now worth 2,400.

With regards to Rolex, many not so popular models will take a bath preowned, only the ones in high demand will retain a fair amount of value.

[Syed117]

I'm all for steel Daytonas being hard to get. It's been that way for a long time.

What I don't support is the lack of something as simple as a sub.

It's pretty much your standard Rolex that a lot of people start with. It's not going anywhere, it's always held its value even when they were available everywhere.

There's just no excuse to not have at least one or two steel submariners available at all ADs at any time.

What's the next step for Rolex? Buy 5 datejusts to build a relationship and then you will be able to get a steel sub?

[GarageBMW]

My AD went to meet Rolex last week concerning the 2018 supply, note this meeting was called for more than one AD in the region. I am told the cut in production is real for professional but Rolex will also limit supply on the rest.

Rolex made it clear that 2018 they will receive less watches than 2017. If there is increase in demand, it is creating scarcity.

It was just a friendly conversation, been having a great relation ship with them for 20+ years, I see no reason he would make story.

[Speed]

“We hear a lot from the people who are salty because they can’t find a Daytona or a 116610lv or a blnr. They’re perpetually on the cusp of leaving the brand for Omega or Iwc. But I think that there are folks that think that Rolex’ strategy is a good one.



Any thoughts from that camp?”


I say...oh well.

No desire for any new ceramic Rolex. I have one. That’s enough.

[Canforfair]

I think Rolex past history tells you they have the correct strategy . We all want something we can have , and the harder to get the harder we try. The old saying “ the chase is better than the catch “
I’m more than happy with how supply is. And I’m looking for a SS Sub. Will probably buy second hand. But next year that watch will still be worth what I pay today due to Rolex strategy..
❤️Rolex HQ.....


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[Syed117]

Originally Posted by Canforfair

I’m more than happy with how supply is. And I’m looking for a SS Sub.

This is ridiculous.

Supply should not be like this for a steel sub.

Daytona, SD, whatever else. Fine.

Steel sub? No.

[GarageBMW]

Whenever you walk in and can get your hands on the product you want is not good, the product does not get desired enough and soon become ubiquitous.
Lawrence Stroll sold a massive part of his shares in Michael Kors when it became ubiquitous and selling like hot dogs, why ? because once you reach this level, it can only goes down. He did that with Tommy Hilfiger among many, he built his fortune with this model. He does not care going term as Rolex does so well.

Look at the craziness around Supreme, supply and demand. 1000$ for a cotton hoodie on the secondary market, really ? Rolex is a bargain when I look at Supreme.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Bobby T

Building a relationship with an AD comes at the expense of purchasing multiple watches per year, for years.

This is not necessarily true, although dropping a lot of cash doesn't hurt.

[MinMay]

Rolex is successful because of the current environment....AD, grey market, etc... without them, there is no Rolex :)

[AK797]

Originally Posted by GarageBMW

Whenever you walk in and can get your hands on the product you want is not good, the product does not get desired enough and soon become ubiquitous.

Originally Posted by MinMay

Rolex is successful because of the current environment....AD, grey market, etc... without them, there is no Rolex :)

But this has not been Rolex's problem, they have been far and away the best seller of mid-luxury watches for years and have clearly the strongest brand name as well, so that's why this change in market conditions, rather than strategy imho, is getting so much coverage here. It would be more understandable if Omega or Breitling did this to try and cut in on Rolex's dominance of the market, and no doubt this must be giving them some serious ideas.

[Jimbogigolo]

GIMME MY DAMN WATCH ROLEX GODS! Its so frustrating.

[Bigblu10]

They want to shove DateJust models down everyone's throat. Losing proposition.
Also the myriad of empty display cases at AD's. Losing proposition.
Imagine going to your local Chevy dealership to buy a 100K Corvette and all there is on the lot are Malibu's? Jeez.

[thomaswentworth]

I believe that the powers behind Rolex have seen what happens with scarce vintage pieces and the prices they achieve. I believe Rolex will be doing relatively short runs of slightly different models moving forward rather than decades long runs of exactly the same thing.

[thomaswentworth]

Originally Posted by HL65

Then switch to other brands and when you see your watches worth 50% of what you paid you will come back to Rolex as you will not like knowing you bought a watch that has awful resale. Trust me we would have thousands of threads of people whining about poor value retention one of attributes that makes Rolex strong. Again this is the same exact thing PP and AP are doing as well. It's all about supply and demand and tight supply is a very attractive quality of a luxury item for all owners. So to each his own and I am quite sure Breitling, Omega, Panerai, IWC and JLC would love to have strong value retention for their watches but...

I agree 100%!

[Pickle_02]

What an interesting read. Makes me realize how lucky I am to own a blnr lol I’m giving it a disservice by not wearing it today.

[Enicarman]

Originally Posted by HL65

Then switch to other brands and when you see your watches worth 50% of what you paid you will come back to Rolex as you will not like knowing you bought a watch that has awful resale. Trust me we would have thousands of threads of people whining about poor value retention one of attributes that makes Rolex strong. Again this is the same exact thing PP and AP are doing as well. It's all about supply and demand and tight supply is a very attractive quality of a luxury item for all owners. So to each his own and I am quite sure Breitling, Omega, Panerai, IWC and JLC would love to have strong value retention for their watches but...

Are you buying for an investment, or to have a good watch? For someone who just wants a good watch, rather than spend 20G on a Rolex, he will spend $2000 on a different brand, and invest the extra $18000. No maintenance costs on his investment either.

[ian6988]

Rolex is probably scratching their heads as to why there is a shortage of SS Modern references.

Wake up people! just go online and see how many there are available at a premium. The only reason why you don’t have the watch you’re looking for is because others are more resourceful in finding one. Just in one website alone there’s 300+ SS Daytona C available and another 200+ SS Skydwellers available as well. If ADs stops feeding the grey market sellers and opportunistic resellers then there shouldn’t be any shortage.

[harvey]

Spoke to my AD yesterday who said the shortage is going to continue. He suspects it's an attempt by Rolex to move customers to gold and platinum references.

Since Basel last year, he received four SD43. 3 steel Skydwellers (2 white, 1 blue and 0 black).

[seand442]

Originally Posted by harvey

Spoke to my AD yesterday who said the shortage is going to continue. He suspects it's an attempt by Rolex to move customers to gold and platinum references.

Since Basel last year, he received four SD43. 3 steel Skydwellers (2 white, 1 blue and 0 black).

If that is their thinking, I want whatever they are smoking. The MSRP difference between a 116610 and 116619 is almost $30K. That is not a reasonable substitution for 99.9% of people.

[Speed]

Originally Posted by wmcjhi

I certainly understand and agree, although I think it's also possible to build a relationship before making a purchase. Just going in, asking for what you want, having a nice chat about their business and the watches you're looking for, others they carry, etc goes a long way. A lot of people are pretty rude these days, it's amazing what being a nice, normal person can do. And, I'd guess the majority of ADs are also jewelry stores, so if they're also nice people, you'll have a hookup and relationship builder on that too!

This might work in a small town at a Mom and Pop owned AD. If you live in a big city with a lot of international travelers passing through...no way. Sales people come and go...as do managers. None of these people want to let you try on Watch after Watch and BS with you. Most of them don’t know a thing about Watches - or even care for them from what I can see...so unless you’re buying Watch after Watch at MSRP fugheddabout it!!!

[jrs146]

I think having some level of scarcity is a good thing. It helps keep prices up on used models. However I think it’s gone a little too far and done nothing but fuel the gray market like never before. However, I think the extremity we are seeing is temporary.


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[Cato]

Originally Posted by Ra_88

I absolutely agree with you 100 percent on Rolex’s current strategy. Long may it continue. I’m just not personally a fan of AD’s.

I bought my first Rolex about ten years ago and was really disappointed with my AD. I thought spending thousands of dollars would have been a nicer experience. I thought I’d get a private room and talk to a first class salesperson. Instead I got a dude in an ill fitting Mens Warehouse suit and a bottle of Stater Bros. Water.

Going grey was a much nicer experience. I bought online and within a couple days it was delivered to my door.

[polaris72]

Originally Posted by Thatguy

Paying over msrp is only a problem if Rolex increases supply and market value drops. If they continue to be scarce market value will stay the same and you won’t get hurt on resale.


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Sure, that logic applies when you have extended Rolex collection and you are unloading some pieces. However, if I am trying to get few new watches, which I intend to keep, I am out of luck.

I am not a flipper, I buy and I keep. It’s not a focused investment as I invest my money elsewhere. But those, and there are many on TRF, who buy to resell, will be also hurt as they will be buying like us at premiums. At some point, this game will stop, and some will be caught up in a deep hole.

[asiparks]

Originally Posted by HL65

Then switch to other brands and when you see your watches worth 50% of what you paid you will come back to Rolex as you will not like knowing you bought a watch that has awful resale. Trust me we would have thousands of threads of people whining about poor value retention one of attributes that makes Rolex strong. Again this is the same exact thing PP and AP are doing as well. It's all about supply and demand and tight supply is a very attractive quality of a luxury item for all owners. So to each his own and I am quite sure Breitling, Omega, Panerai, IWC and JLC would love to have strong value retention for their watches but...

1)Not all Rolex hold value well on the secondary market.
2)IWC, Omega, Breitling, Blancpain can be bought new at well under MRP. If you are a savvy buyer, the % lost on resale is closer to 25%. Which puts it ballpark to DJ’s, Explorers, Airkings, most PM models and, until the recent madness, Subs.
3)talking of resale, savvier buyers buy used. Thus, often don’t lose any money, usually break even, and, very occasionally might make some.
4)When i buy a watch, it’s with the intention of hanging onto it, wearing it and enjoying it. Resale doesn’t usually figure into it, so I don’t have kittens if it gets scratched, worn in the shower, worn in the pool, with a formal suit or with a mismatched metal wedding ring.

If I worried about losing money on a watch, I’d buy a Seiko Turtle and wisely invest the leftover $9k. These are frivolous status symbols, not smart investments.
Rolex may have aspiration to move upmarket, and they will still sell every ‘sports’ watch they can make to people that can’t see past the name on the dial, but AP, ALS, VC or Patek they are not.

[HL65]

Originally Posted by Enicarman

Are you buying for an investment, or to have a good watch? For someone who just wants a good watch, rather than spend 20G on a Rolex, he will spend $2000 on a different brand, and invest the extra $18000. No maintenance costs on his investment either.

I am not saying Rolex is an investment nor do I buy watches for that purpose which you would know if you knew me like many here do for many years. I am stating a fact that value retention is a good attribute and people here have loved that about SS sports Rolex watches for years and spoken about it openly on our forum.

Originally Posted by asiparks

1)Not all Rolex hold value well on the secondary market. No kidding...I am speaking solely to SS sports watches.
2)IWC, Omega, Breitling, Blancpain can be bought new at well under MRP. If you are a savvy buyer, the % lost on resale is closer to 25%. Which puts it ballpark to DJ’s, Explorers, Airkings, most PM models and, until the recent madness, Subs.
The market for most of those you mention in the collector community is thin and demand is quite low thus poor resale just like the market for soft Rolex pieces as well. So yes you should clearly buy them right.
3)talking of resale, savvier buyers buy used. Thus, often don’t lose any money, usually break even, and, very occasionally might make some.
4)When i buy a watch, it’s with the intention of hanging onto it, wearing it and enjoying it. Resale doesn’t usually figure into it, so I don’t have kittens if it gets scratched, worn in the shower, worn in the pool, with a formal suit or with a mismatched metal wedding ring.

If I worried about losing money on a watch, I’d buy a Seiko Turtle and wisely invest the leftover $9k. These are frivolous status symbols, not smart investments.
Rolex may have aspiration to move upmarket, and they will still sell every ‘sports’ watch they can make to people that can’t see past the name on the dial, but AP, ALS, VC or Patek they are not.

Not saying Rolex is any of those brands nor are they designed to really compete with them. All I said was that Rolex is deploying the same strategy that Patek and AP are right now with their SS sports watches and guess what it is working. Look at prices and demand as the market tells the story. If value retention doesn't matter to you no worries. Clearly it matters to many and all you have to do is go back and look at the all the numerous threads over the years and you shall see. Again my point is that if the market was flooded with watches and they were easy to get the market would be much softer period. I buy my watches to enjoy - all of them from Rolex to Patek to AP to Lange etc. and have enjoyed them for the last 30 years and will continue to do so. I applaud all of the top houses for their strategy over the last year and my guess is it will continue going forward but who knows we shall see. I will continue to buy watches to enjoy and wear like I have for many years. I hope everyone gets whatever watches they desire and enjoy them as well...Cheers,

[dmash]

Originally Posted by NKflyer

I think the idea that Rolex is winding down production because the supercase subs & gmt's are going to be phased out at Basel is really plausible. Might we all be overanalyzing what is simply some logistical maneuvering?

This was actually my thought. Everybody is saying stock is being cut to protect brand integrity, but I believe you may of hit the nail on the head. Would make sense to cut back on supply prior to a revamp.

[yoast]

This... Panerai is the perfect example... I used to love this brand but now....

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

i posted a thread a few years ago that Rolex was far too available...

It was ridiculous, for a luxury item, how full the cases were with everything except Daytona's....BUT they were in the back if you asked nicely...I mean every AD was absolutely overflowing with watches.

This is much much better. Sales on some references have INCREASED since the allocation. Hulks were kinda "meh" in terms of sales..

Now, since you "can't get one".....4 -5x the sales! Might even see the lowly EXP 2 (which I like) go up in demand if they aren't in your face..

Panerai did this in their early days. Limited production. Hunting for a 000 or 112 at a dealer was part of the fun...People used to post lists of AD availability on forums to assist in finding pieces. Resale was strong. All was good.

Then Panerai went haywire. Made a bunch of watches. Increased availability, number of models, and store fronts. What happened? Well...Panerai isn't so hot anymore...in fact it's pretty COLD.

Look at that stupid "Supreme" brand. Super limited production of whatever it is they do. People can't get enough and spend insane money on the stuff, because you just can't get it.

So...Yep I'm good with ROLEX hitting the brakes.