Market is Softening

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Are AD’s display cases full of DJ models yet?? Until that happens we didn’t even start to return to 2017 days.

I would suggest that ADs display cases are beginning to fill up with DJs. Just that they are labelled as ‘Exhibition’ models. Maybe not available today, but will magically become available very soon, if you show serious interest.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Anyone who wants to see the actual value of an asset needs to try to offload said asset. Asking prices are meaningless benchmarks, call an AD / 2nd hand reseller and ask for a quote for any particular reference to see what it’s actually worth. For the majority of references, you’ll be lucky to get offered MSRP, and more likely to be well under MSRP.

You are cherry picking the lowest possible number. Do you solely value a car based on what you can trade it in for at an auto dealership? I hope not.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by jb335

You are cherry picking the lowest possible number. Do you solely value a car based on what you can trade it in for at an auto dealership? I hope not.


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This is in addition to grey offerings fluctuating wildly. People like that guy will get a lowball of $12.5k on a new Batgirl and try to claim the charade is over, it’s back to normal. Meanwhile 5 other greys will pay $15k same day lol.

[SLWoodster]

If you use the last 4-5 years as the norm in the Rolex world, that would be prisoner-of-the-moment mentality. I don't think you make your opinions with that in mind. However, the hype-chasing-modern-Rolex fans keep updating everyone regarding certain segments of the secondary market for the last 2 years like it's some kind of new news or doom and gloom situation for Rolex.

Rolex's own retail market remains strong, at least for now. But what "strong" means to you seems like it would also differ between you and I. I think of the last 4-5 years as an anomaly, not the norm or some measure of what a typical set of good years at Rolex looks like. I accept that type of demand as astronomical and out of the ordinary. This whole 2022-2024 is a correction. We've yet to find out what the new normal actually is. But it's not like between 2009 and 2019, Rolex was a failure even though everything sold below retail except for like 1% of the SKUs.

I used the Marlon Brando example because secondary market in certain segments are performing strong, against what is being reported here about the market. Vintage Piaget, Cartier, Patek, stone dial vintage Rolex are also all performing at all time highs. Multiple gray dealers I've done business with are hitting all time highs in revenue this year but with different product types than 2020-2021. The market of consumers and awareness in watches today is undeniably bigger than in 2019.

Originally Posted by Sublovin

To the contrary of what you posted, I think the secondary market has a large effect on a company that sells as many widgets as Rolex. On the flipside, you use very specific, one off examples, to support that the market is strong. I don’t think a watch owned by Marlon Brando selling at auction has anything to do With the state of the overall Rolex market. The secondary market dipping will absolutely turn away speculators, investors, and gray market dealers who have been gobbling them up as new. This will allow more of the average consumer who is just looking for “a watch” to walk in and purchase one at retail, thus driving down the secondary demand, and along with it the prices. Rolex has always had a very strong secondary market and has been a safe place to keep your money. I think that will certainly continue, but this ridiculous bubble of selling over retail for mass produced, still in production pieces, is gladly coming to an end in my opinion.

[sudo_root]

Originally Posted by jb335

You are cherry picking the lowest possible number. Do you solely value a car based on what you can trade it in for at an auto dealership? I hope not.


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Do you seriously believe as a private seller you’re going to offload a used car at an equivalent dealer price? Good luck, you may have a better chance going the auction route but that will still be under the dealer retail price (exotics, rarified vehicles apply as an exception)

So in essence you just argued in favor of my point, the average individual cannot offload a car or a watch at an equivalent price as an established retailer (used or AD). Meaning you can’t measure the value of a privately owned asset against those asking price benchmarks, unless you enjoy being delusional.

[Bizcut1]

Originally Posted by Starhutch

Mods, please move this to that dark hole of a sub forum “watch out” where people that care can discuss.

Apparently, it's of interest to some...why the blindfold?

I think the costs and market conditions of our hobby are relevant, kind of like always.

JMHO -

[jb335]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Do you seriously believe as a private seller you’re going to offload a used car at an equivalent dealer price? Good luck, you may have a better chance going the auction route but that will still be under the dealer retail price (exotics, rarified vehicles apply as an exception)

So in essence you just argued in favor of my point, the average individual cannot offload a car or a watch at an equivalent price as an established retailer (used or AD). Meaning you can’t measure the value of a privately owned asset against those asking price benchmarks, unless you enjoy being delusional.

Come on now. You’re ignoring the middle space. I never said the same price as an auto dealer or an established grey in the watch world (DavidSW, Takuya etc) but I can sell a watch or a car for significantly more than what the auto dealer or grey will offer, and I have done so with both watches and cars many times. It’s not that hard.

Your reply is ignoring there is something in-between wholesale and retail pricing…and somewhat disingenuous.


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[eman]

Is Rolex watches taking the same route as cryptocurrency?