Russia War Scare, Stock Market Correction... which models will be the first to fall?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by daveswordfish

Rolex is an alternative to other watches. It’s not an asset class. Really, it’s not.


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it is today. whether or not it stays as one remains to be seen but there's no denying it is one today, and it's more liquid than most

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by huncho

it is today. whether or not it stays as one remains to be seen but there's no denying it is one today, and it's more liquid than most

Genuinely curious, were Beanie Babies and Tulips an asset class of it's own? I know comparing the Rolex bubble to those two bubbles is apples/oranges but I'm sure at the time, people were defining it as a liquid asset class of its own as well.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Genuinely curious, were Beanie Babies and Tulips an asset class of it's own? I know comparing the Rolex bubble to those two bubbles is apples/oranges but I'm sure at the time, people were defining it as a liquid asset class of its own as well.

no clue, i can't imagine beanie babies were as liquid as a rolex is but i didn't live through that. having a rolex is basically the same as holding cash today though because you're one text message away from selling it to a grey and having cash tomorrow

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

... economic downturns do not affect the kind of people who can afford to buy these watches.

Not forseeing this point is what caused almost everyone to incorrectly predict the post covid run up. I heard how white Daytona would be below MSRP and I would lose my butt after paying $21.5K or whatever for mine at the time.

[AF_Rob]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Relax and don't be so dramatic. This is more of a cold war than an actual war.

I wish I had your crystal ball. Hopefully it’s right.


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[thenewrick]

My guess is those that rose the fastest in past few years will crash the fastest. Also those that are the most conspicuous, recognizable by the average public will go down quickly. The low key references that haven’t spiked recently will probably be the most stable.

Won’t see prices drop until people stop buying or Greys stop buying on credit. I think everyone’s waiting to see what happens. They could have a peaceful resolution and things calm down.

The slow down was coming with or without the Ukraine issue. It’ll become less easy to borrow money and with slower inflation it’ll calm down. But this current issue and stock market/crypto crash will probably accelerate things.

Top 5 biggest dips I think will be yellow gold anything, bright colored dials and bezels, white dial Daytona. I’d guess slow down starts a few months after new releases come out and things trend back to 2015 prices slowly over the next 5 years.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by AF_Rob

I wish I had your crystal ball. Hopefully it’s right.


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Look at 2015. If this is more than just Putin testing USA, we have far worse things to worry about as WWIII would decimate both countries. I doubt Russia is that stupid. I'm fairly certain it won't get to that point but it's okay to talk about what the threat MIGHT do to Rolex prices/the US economy.

[sski]

:sigh: war, what is it good for? IBTL!

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Bruse Wayne

The USD printer won’t allow that to happen again

This.

So basically two things can happen.

1. keep printing and we go into hyperinflation

2. they stop printing and the global financial system collapses

Number 1 is probably the route governments will choose and we're kind of watching it play out right in front of us.

[visualplane]

Own a rolex made of gold and you're set.

[Calatrava r]

Rolex prices are headed up. Inflation really seems to be a significant factor in luxury good prices which are skyrocketing.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

As the title states, the market has been in a heavy correction with rising interest rates and a looming war in Ukraine.

Hopefully we'll see some softening of prices once Grey's try to undercut each other?

Which model's would be the first to take the biggest blow? Will SS pieces be more resilient than PM pieces?

Bored at work and reading such gloomy news. Can't help but hope that this starts putting pressure on some Grey dealers.

nope

[vinny84]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Genuinely curious, were Beanie Babies and Tulips an asset class of it's own? I know comparing the Rolex bubble to those two bubbles is apples/oranges but I'm sure at the time, people were defining it as a liquid asset class of its own as well.

As a kid that collected Beanie Babies and tried to turn around to re-sell some of them, no, they weren't as liquid as Rolex. That's from my perspective though. My father also took me to flea markets and I would see the same rare Beanie Babies each week, not much on the higher tier seemed to move. Again, from my perspective as a 12 year old.

[fgress3969]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Everyone is all in including the lint. I'm on several forums for cars, boats, houses, etc and everyone is forcasting everyone elses bubble to pop but not theirs.

The reality is the rug is going to be pulled out from under everyones feet inlcuding the big boys. Hard to fathom now but when the markets go into free fall and business close up out of nowhere the last thing you'll be looking for is a Rolex at a discount.

The one thing we learn about history is that we never learn from history.

Absolutely

[JR16]

Originally Posted by omx5o

Just a guess. Oil up. Gold up. Rolex up.

Bingo!


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[alphadweller]

What effect did wars have on prices of luxury goods in the past? Therein lies the answer to OP's question.

[Golfbone]

Rolex and Patek prices are going to plummet. All of you with Daytonas and 5711s should sell immediately. I can take these off your hands if you like at brand new prices even though they are used watches. Please consider my generous offer because once the shit hits the fan it's OFF THE TABLE! SELL NOW!

TIME LIMITED OFFER!

[amanbra]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

This.

So basically two things can happen.

1. keep printing and we go into hyperinflation

2. they stop printing and the global financial system collapses

Number 1 is probably the route governments will choose and we're kind of watching it play out right in front of us.

There is an in between =), ease of QE, slight increase in interest rates and slowly tweak... now do I have confidence in the decision makers to get it right? not really but there is a sensible way out of this.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

What effect did wars have on prices of luxury goods in the past? Therein lies the answer to OP's question.

I can’t speak to watches, but prices for fine art and classic cars declined. Of course prices rebounded very nicely too.

The problem now is that the Fed has to raise interest rates because of record high inflation. They can’t lower interest rates to prevent a deep recession and housing collapse.

We’re not in a good situation at all…


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[daveswordfish]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Relax and don't be so dramatic. This is more of a cold war than an actual war.

If you want someone to be calm, never tell them to relax.

My point has nothing to do with what will actually happen in Ukraine and everything to do with the fact that people have become entirely too obsessed with the value of their Rolex.


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[Madman37]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

So the first thing on your mind when a war is looming is Rolex prices?

agreed i can’t believe this post. Some of people living in the separatist areas are under the most severe of risk and people hope that this will bring them a cheaper rolex. Insane.

[Madman37]

Originally Posted by daveswordfish

If you want someone to be calm, never tell them to relax.

My point has nothing to do with what will actually happen in Ukraine and everything to do with the fact that people have become entirely too obsessed with the value of their Rolex.


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this obsession is why the prices are so high in the first place people want them so bad they are even hoping the possibility of a war will help.

[Obi Wan]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Stockmarkets edgy ,people run to alternatives .Rolex is one of them .

Rolex will go up.

Just that. Nothing more to add.

[digitalR]

Originally Posted by Madman37

this obsession is why the prices are so high in the first place people want them so bad they are even hoping the possibility of a war will help.

interesting conclusion to draw from a Q related to price impact driven by a macro event.

id like to think people generally dont go around hoping for war so they can buy a rolex for less $ and that's likely not what the OP intended..

is all the increased consumer spending driven by a global pandemic also evil?

[ts3]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Look at 2015. If this is more than just Putin testing USA, we have far worse things to worry about as WWIII would decimate both countries. I doubt Russia is that stupid. I'm fairly certain it won't get to that point but it's okay to talk about what the threat MIGHT do to Rolex prices/the US economy.

Apart from sanctions the US will do ... nothing if Putin invades Ukraine proper rather than just Donetsk and Luhansk. This is not about the US whatsoever and referring to WWIII is overly dramatic. This is about Putin trying to rewrite history, or not. Sadly, nobody will stop him if he decides to do so.

[paxjedi]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

So the first thing on your mind when a war is looming is Rolex prices?

This.



.

[YGRLX]

Watches are the only safe place. Bargain at current prices.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by YGRLX

Watches are the only safe place. Bargain at current prices.

(Stolen from another TRFer)


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[Incroyable12]

You might see a rise again if and when China opens up.