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#61 |
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2022
Location: Le Brassus
Watch: Code 11.59
Posts: 296
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#62 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,923
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#63 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2012
Real Name: Gareth
Location: Surrey, UK
Watch: AP/Rolex
Posts: 2,220
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#64 |
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2022
Location: Le Brassus
Watch: Code 11.59
Posts: 296
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#65 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Uk
Posts: 1,504
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#66 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Real Name: Josh
Location: Lost in time
Watch: Me Nae Nae
Posts: 9,821
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Quote:
Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows…. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
"Sometimes the songs that we hear are just songs of our own." -Jerome J. Garcia, Robert C. Hunter ![]() |
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#67 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: HK
Posts: 4,366
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#68 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: HK
Watch: Piaget,Rolex,AP,HB
Posts: 1,040
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Another phenomenon in HK which I won’t miss seeing - some of the grey dealer areas where there are a whole bunch of them. Crowds of people, sometimes seemingly entire families talking to each other. And you can hear them - they’re not talking about the watches per se but talking about the watches and their corresponding price moves up or down. Pretty much just like watching the stock market. And you can’t even get a look in the shop windows because of these crowds
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#69 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Uk
Posts: 1,504
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Quote:
Don't want to judge but you can see how long a few of us have been around for a while before any crazy times. This should hold some weight. The fun is literally just round the corner, patience is a virtue ![]() |
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#70 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Watch: AP 15500
Posts: 700
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#71 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: USA
Posts: 10
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Quote:
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#72 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Home!
Posts: 3,307
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I am sure that AP will keep the price and some pieces will sell above MRSP like 15407, 15510 blue and khaki….
Things are change a lot now compared with what we know about AP. In 2018 you can buy any RO new on grey market with 10% under the list price. But to not forget that now AP have 90% Boutiques AP not retailers and they control very good the market and almost every piece’s sales are need to be approved before they are allocated. So, it is hard with discount.. Also in my humble opinion now people who have money but the last months make people to take care because they don’t know what’s coming. In many aspects people have change think about luxury watches and here talk about PP, AP and Rolex. Will see…. Many people when Covid starts sold his watches because they believe that nobody wants this watches. Reality shows us that was a bad ideea. I read about 15510 on around 40k here but this price it’s around 50% above MRSP. Nobody knows what and how it will be but I an sure that we will not have this luck to return on pre Covid situation. Last week I on Barcelona at AP house. They don’t have only 2-3 models for women but watches are sold waiting for customers. I think it’s pretty sooner to can predict. Also in Europe the grey market buy watches with no problem. Just my 2 cents |
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#73 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Watch: AP 15500
Posts: 700
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#74 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Watch: AP 15500
Posts: 700
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Quote:
Premature eye roll at the folks who will inevitably come on here and defend their boutique/AD/SA and try to excuse the horrible behavior and drone on about how important it is we all support the ADs and boutiques and to not buy grey. |
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#75 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Taiwan
Posts: 3,813
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#76 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Watch: AP 15500
Posts: 700
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Quote:
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#77 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2021
Location: USA
Posts: 354
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Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers
Quote:
I have nothing against people who have had bad experiences. I had my own bad experiences for 5 years before I walked into the right boutique. I’m not shy about telling that story because it speaks volume to how amazing my SA is. There are a lot of politics and personalities and timing in this watch world. That being said I’m grateful for my SA and how I’ve been introduced into the brand after years of trying to forge a path. |
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#78 |
Banned
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Bangalore
Watch: 116506A
Posts: 397
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Production of watches will drop due to energy crisis
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#79 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2012
Real Name: Gareth
Location: Surrey, UK
Watch: AP/Rolex
Posts: 2,220
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Quote:
Finding both the time and right approach to forge a productive relationship with a watch brand/AD or Boutique (or AP House) is a) well worth it in my (and friends too) experience and b) will pay dividends tangibly with the right outlook and that positive approach. It's not for everyone of course so I get why some might walk away and go grey as a result. Neither is wrong, but just a case of doing what works for you. |
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#80 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: HK
Watch: Piaget,Rolex,AP,HB
Posts: 1,040
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I think the service is fine, they aren't almost overly nice like Cartier, Roger Dubuis or Hublot but are a bit more cool. You can understand this as their watches are in such demand they don't need to try as hard, if you know what I mean
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#81 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Home!
Posts: 3,307
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Agree
This will affect more production. Now it’s a fall in demand of watches in general not AP, Rolex or Patek. In the end all are fall in demand because many people prefer to stay with money and to see what comes next. I think who really are to be disappointed are who are buying Rolex on extra exploded prices. AP or Patek have enough requests that no need to be stressed about customers. Of course numbers of buyers fall because flippers disappear. This is a good thing because shows really watch lover so rise the chance to achieve a 50’anniversary |
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#82 | |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 2,116
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Quote:
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#83 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,923
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Quote:
People really should tread carefully treating this other than exactly what it is, a hobby. Almost spit out my coffee the other morning reading some about some guy who was telling others to 'buy the dip' and put their entire savings into watches. What are some of these people smoking? |
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#84 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 445
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I feel everyone here just has confirmation bias. The AP market has pretty much stabilized from a month or so ago. In fact some royal oaks have started to move back up.
Everything for right now has taken a hit. It's only temporary. It will go back up. May take longer to get back to how it was, but it will eventually get there. People forget this trend has happened before. They end up going higher. The supply situation has not changed at all. It's not any better. Did everyone forget Econ 101? Demand may have taken a hit but not enough for these to go back to MSRP or anywhere close to it when they were selling 2-3x across the board. Don't compare AP to Rolex...... |
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#85 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Boston
Watch: 16610LV
Posts: 1,051
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#86 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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Quote:
History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme… exceptional circumstances fueled the crazy watch market, and without them, it is extremely likely that prices will revert to the mean.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#87 | ||
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,923
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Quote:
I really fail to understand how you quote Econ 101 but then make that statement as well. Quote:
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#88 | |||
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Supply and demand as I said before. Supply hasn't changed. Demand has a bit. It's still extremely hard to get some of these watches at retail. It's practically impossible for most. Mostly because the supply is so low. A jumbo for instance may not be selling for 180-200k like the high. But it's still going for 2-3x MSRP. A 15500 is still going for almost 2x MSRP. It's not going back to MSRP. The only reason these watches ever sold at MSRP was because of authorized dealers selling them for 30% off, and the demand was not there. AP because of social media has gotten insane exposure. It's not going to be undone. So now you have more demand than before, with the same supply. Wait till inflation gets under control, and the fed stops raising rates. You are going to see a pop every where. Everybody better take advantage of this while they can..... |
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#89 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Orange County
Posts: 1,801
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Quote:
I can use offshores because they did in fact significantly benefit from the market conditions of the past 2 years. Your numbers are all wrong which invalidates much of what you’re saying - 15500s are going for 1.5x MSRP (and sitting). The ROs and ROCs are all dropping. There’s modern 3-handers all over the place from 33k to the 39k. 15500s have dropped over 30% and continue to fall, for example. For the aforementioned reasons that I and other posters made, it’s more likely that prices revert to the mean than stabilize at their covid-bubble levels.
__________________
AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1 |
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#90 | ||
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,923
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Quote:
Quote:
The *only* people I've heard talk like this are grey dealers who are underwater ![]() Secondly, it's a bit funny how you mention you're getting offers (what kind of grey dealer randomly hits up a client to make offers on watches?), yet there's MANY dealers who flat out tell you they're not buying anything, you can call these mainstream dealers and they'll directly tell you no, and you also have members here who can also verify this...... and this entire thread was created to elaborate on such.....yet you have some secretive off the radar grey dealer network who is prevailing above all others and winning in current market environment. Not trying to call a spade a spade but.... |
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