ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
20 March 2020, 02:27 PM | #61 |
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Lots of speculation but when grey market and flippers scooping up these watches and selling for over retail for a few years now, it’s not a normal market. My money is on a major shakeup and dive in prices if this COVID deal persists for any length of time. I mean the whole world is going to be impacted by this virus. Apparently, 800k Rolexes are produced per year? Someone can confirm that?
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20 March 2020, 02:38 PM | #62 |
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No lower supply at all.
OP, YOU yourself got a piece from the vault. And buyers just aren’t there like they were before the world crisis. Nothing absurd, but we are going towards a buyer’s market. |
20 March 2020, 03:13 PM | #63 |
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Let’s look at two cases and extrapolate the data. All rough numbers.
S. Korea 3.3% infection rate (they are doing well with this) Diamond Princess 25% infection rate (this was a sh!t show) US population 330 million. Infection rate 3.3% - 25% 10,890,000 - 82.5 million infected Current WHO mortality rate 3.4% 370,260 - 2.8 million dead in the US. Global population 7.8 billion. Infection rate 3.3% - 25% 257 million - 1.95 billion Current WHO mortality rate 3.4% 8.7 million - 66 million dead world wide Most likely a safe vaccine will be ready for distribution in 18 months. These are really rough numbers based on incomplete information. I hope I am wrong about everything in this post. What happens if I’m not? |
20 March 2020, 03:28 PM | #64 | |
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This’ll definitely put a dent in Rolex sales. Probably not Patek though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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20 March 2020, 03:37 PM | #65 | |
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20 March 2020, 03:43 PM | #66 | |
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307,000 tested 8,565 infected (2.7% infection rate) 91 deaths (1.06% mortality rate) https://www.statista.com/statistics/...navirus-cases/ |
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20 March 2020, 04:08 PM | #67 |
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S Korea is a well-oiled machine. Their govt says "self-quarantine," they say "how long?" Most countries do not operate like this. I'm guessing (hoping) it's not as grim as 25% infected (though Gavin Newsom even suggested 56% infection rate in Cali) but you also can't compare S Korea's numbers to the rest of the world.
I don't think the high high end market (Patek, A Lange) will be majorly impacted but the more I think about it, I'm betting the stainless Rolex market in particular will tank. |
20 March 2020, 04:26 PM | #68 |
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So if im in the national guard, what is the best rolex to deploy with?
Sorry had to break this up a bit to give people the chance to collect themselves |
20 March 2020, 04:33 PM | #69 |
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some people that wanted rolex in the last months will not have the capacity to buy them in the near future. do the math.
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20 March 2020, 04:50 PM | #70 | |
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America’s infection rate will more than likely be MUCH worse than other countries....perhaps the worst in the world. |
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20 March 2020, 07:10 PM | #71 |
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One thing that I have not seen mentioned is that there is a rush to get USD, other countries are flocking to it as it is the world's currency. We have seen AUD and GBP vs USD tank overnight. If you look at watch prices, a brand new Pepsi from AU/GB dealers are dropping to all time lows due to exchange rates. I am seeing sub $16K USD for a new Pepsi which is the first time I have ever seen this, and it is just the beginning.
Many world economies are not as service based as the US, and they will not come back online as quickly. Even if you see a manufacturing based economy like China come back online after several months, their customers (US, EU, etc) are now going through the same thing they were and likely means less activity for China in the short term. Rolex watches will be allocated differently, you will see gray dealers in a tough spot if they financed their inventory. The biggest threat to the US is every company facing liquidity issues, I would assume there will be mass layoffs, defaults, etc. We can not quantify it yet since we do not know the level of involvement the government will have. My bet is that you will see some stainless sport models in showrooms by this summer (sub, sub date, but I doubt you will see a Pepsi sitting). Someone mentioned a 10K dow, while I think this will end up being overstated, we have gone from nearly 30K to 20K in a month, and it is highly likely we see another 30% drop. There are many low margin businesses in the US that can not sustain 30 days without cash flow (restaurants/hospitality sector), and government won't bail them all out. The 20% unemployment rate quoted by Mnuchin was likely to scare government into action, but it isnt too far fetched given the already sharp spike in unemployment applications, coupled with the sharp decline in oil prices. The people who will not have their lives changed materially by any of this, if they were looking for a watch they likely have it. There are probably a small percentage of people who are ready and willing to buy the watch they've been waiting for (outside of the very rare like White Daytonas). I do believe many of those within that small percentage you willl find actively posting on here, myself included lol. |
20 March 2020, 08:50 PM | #72 |
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Keep calm and Rolex on
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20 March 2020, 10:12 PM | #73 |
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Seriously the hype has to stop or at least cool down.
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20 March 2020, 11:33 PM | #74 |
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This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.
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20 March 2020, 11:38 PM | #75 |
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Total? Yes, most definitely. Daily (as I think that poster was insinuating), not, this virus will never come close to killing 25,000 per day for an extended period.
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20 March 2020, 11:44 PM | #76 |
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20 March 2020, 11:47 PM | #77 |
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Agreed. People are still underestimating this virus. The damage has not even begun yet. This is just the beginning.
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21 March 2020, 12:03 AM | #78 | |
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21 March 2020, 01:23 AM | #79 | |
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21 March 2020, 02:24 AM | #80 | |
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What will really happen - lots of leveraged people will see that Rolex on their wrist as a safety net to make rent/mortgage/car payments. Not too many people will pay over $15K for a pepsi when the exchange forum may see upwards of 50 of them listed use under $10k, in like-new shape. Expect a boom in used watch sales on the forum within about 3 weeks or so. Very sad, but very true. |
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21 March 2020, 02:33 AM | #81 |
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Poor market speculation attempt
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21 March 2020, 02:35 AM | #82 | |
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21 March 2020, 02:37 AM | #83 |
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I’d love to see a list of things that were improved by being hysterical. This is a bad situation, we will get past it.
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21 March 2020, 03:05 AM | #84 |
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Need a touch of humor and to smile at least a little
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21 March 2020, 03:47 AM | #85 |
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21 March 2020, 04:14 AM | #86 |
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I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia -2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000. - 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers. And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity. Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those. Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age. This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc. Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario. Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ... Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ... |
21 March 2020, 04:31 AM | #87 |
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Also with this being a health crisis the Apple watch is proving more useful than ever. I wear mine 24/7 to track my activity, stress (heart rate pattered), sleep notifications when working remote etc. You could not give me another Rolex right now.
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21 March 2020, 04:42 AM | #88 |
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21 March 2020, 04:43 AM | #89 |
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21 March 2020, 05:46 AM | #90 | |
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