Market is Softening

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Are AD’s display cases full of DJ models yet?? Until that happens we didn’t even start to return to 2017 days.

I would suggest that ADs display cases are beginning to fill up with DJs. Just that they are labelled as ‘Exhibition’ models. Maybe not available today, but will magically become available very soon, if you show serious interest.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Anyone who wants to see the actual value of an asset needs to try to offload said asset. Asking prices are meaningless benchmarks, call an AD / 2nd hand reseller and ask for a quote for any particular reference to see what it’s actually worth. For the majority of references, you’ll be lucky to get offered MSRP, and more likely to be well under MSRP.

You are cherry picking the lowest possible number. Do you solely value a car based on what you can trade it in for at an auto dealership? I hope not.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by jb335

You are cherry picking the lowest possible number. Do you solely value a car based on what you can trade it in for at an auto dealership? I hope not.


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This is in addition to grey offerings fluctuating wildly. People like that guy will get a lowball of $12.5k on a new Batgirl and try to claim the charade is over, it’s back to normal. Meanwhile 5 other greys will pay $15k same day lol.

[SLWoodster]

If you use the last 4-5 years as the norm in the Rolex world, that would be prisoner-of-the-moment mentality. I don't think you make your opinions with that in mind. However, the hype-chasing-modern-Rolex fans keep updating everyone regarding certain segments of the secondary market for the last 2 years like it's some kind of new news or doom and gloom situation for Rolex.

Rolex's own retail market remains strong, at least for now. But what "strong" means to you seems like it would also differ between you and I. I think of the last 4-5 years as an anomaly, not the norm or some measure of what a typical set of good years at Rolex looks like. I accept that type of demand as astronomical and out of the ordinary. This whole 2022-2024 is a correction. We've yet to find out what the new normal actually is. But it's not like between 2009 and 2019, Rolex was a failure even though everything sold below retail except for like 1% of the SKUs.

I used the Marlon Brando example because secondary market in certain segments are performing strong, against what is being reported here about the market. Vintage Piaget, Cartier, Patek, stone dial vintage Rolex are also all performing at all time highs. Multiple gray dealers I've done business with are hitting all time highs in revenue this year but with different product types than 2020-2021. The market of consumers and awareness in watches today is undeniably bigger than in 2019.

Originally Posted by Sublovin

To the contrary of what you posted, I think the secondary market has a large effect on a company that sells as many widgets as Rolex. On the flipside, you use very specific, one off examples, to support that the market is strong. I don’t think a watch owned by Marlon Brando selling at auction has anything to do With the state of the overall Rolex market. The secondary market dipping will absolutely turn away speculators, investors, and gray market dealers who have been gobbling them up as new. This will allow more of the average consumer who is just looking for “a watch” to walk in and purchase one at retail, thus driving down the secondary demand, and along with it the prices. Rolex has always had a very strong secondary market and has been a safe place to keep your money. I think that will certainly continue, but this ridiculous bubble of selling over retail for mass produced, still in production pieces, is gladly coming to an end in my opinion.

[sudo_root]

Originally Posted by jb335

You are cherry picking the lowest possible number. Do you solely value a car based on what you can trade it in for at an auto dealership? I hope not.


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Do you seriously believe as a private seller you’re going to offload a used car at an equivalent dealer price? Good luck, you may have a better chance going the auction route but that will still be under the dealer retail price (exotics, rarified vehicles apply as an exception)

So in essence you just argued in favor of my point, the average individual cannot offload a car or a watch at an equivalent price as an established retailer (used or AD). Meaning you can’t measure the value of a privately owned asset against those asking price benchmarks, unless you enjoy being delusional.

[Bizcut1]

Originally Posted by Starhutch

Mods, please move this to that dark hole of a sub forum “watch out” where people that care can discuss.

Apparently, it's of interest to some...why the blindfold?

I think the costs and market conditions of our hobby are relevant, kind of like always.

JMHO -

[jb335]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Do you seriously believe as a private seller you’re going to offload a used car at an equivalent dealer price? Good luck, you may have a better chance going the auction route but that will still be under the dealer retail price (exotics, rarified vehicles apply as an exception)

So in essence you just argued in favor of my point, the average individual cannot offload a car or a watch at an equivalent price as an established retailer (used or AD). Meaning you can’t measure the value of a privately owned asset against those asking price benchmarks, unless you enjoy being delusional.

Come on now. You’re ignoring the middle space. I never said the same price as an auto dealer or an established grey in the watch world (DavidSW, Takuya etc) but I can sell a watch or a car for significantly more than what the auto dealer or grey will offer, and I have done so with both watches and cars many times. It’s not that hard.

Your reply is ignoring there is something in-between wholesale and retail pricing…and somewhat disingenuous.


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[eman]

Is Rolex watches taking the same route as cryptocurrency?

[Barada7]

If people could remove the hype $ aspect, and base their Rolex preference on their unique preferential criteria, then many more Rolex would be available. I’m still amazed (shocked) how many past slow movers (Exp., Exp. II, AirKing) became waitlist pieces. And even the revamped GMT seems like under a more sober examination it would appeal to far fewer people.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by jb335

That is a wild take. Not the perspective I’d subscribe to.

He can turn around as a private seller tomorrow and sell it for at least 19k, so not sure how you are getting 8k. Unless you think grey price is falling to 13k for a Pepsi? Which is not very reasonable or likely imo.

One thing I have noticed about TRF over the recent years is half the people will say the sky is falling and the other half will say to the moon. Usually neither are correct.


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I don’t know what the used watch mongers are buying BLROs for but I find it hard to believe that with 3-4 BLROs on hand and not moving that they are offering 19k. Unless our used watch mongers are backed by Saudi money - then I can see that happening .

For example, look at this used watch monger. Here he has a 2023 Pepsi that’s been listed for a few days. The monger just lowered the price to $19.5k. Assuming 10% margins he bought the watch at $17,550.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=962523

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[mpkRolex]

Originally Posted by Porscheconvert

I just paid 21 for a Pepsi. Shopped it around and really tried hard to get one for less.

Agree economy is bad, but not rolex economy..l

Pepsi is one of those like SS Daytona's that still budges the market trend. Enjoy!

[jb335]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I don’t know what the used watch mongers are buying BLROs for but I find it hard to believe that with 3-4 BLROs on hand and not moving that they are offering 19k. Unless our used watch mongers are backed by Saudi money - then I can see that happening .

For example, look at this used watch monger. Here he has a 2023 Pepsi that’s been listed for a few days. The monger just lowered the price to $19.5k. Assuming 10% margins he bought the watch at $17,550.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=962523

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My 19k was not a buy price from a grey, it was my estimate he could sell it for as a private seller to an end user. Hence why I wrote “as a private seller.”

Maybe it’s closer to 18k, but it’s definitely more than the 13k that one guy predicted.


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[Mystro]

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by jb335

My 19k was not a buy price from a grey, it was my estimate he could sell it for as a private seller to an end user. Hence why I wrote “as a private seller.”

Maybe it’s closer to 18k, but it’s definitely more than the 13k that one guy predicted.


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Oh no, I understood what you meant. If a trusted used watch monger can’t sell for 19,500 you think a private seller is going to get $19k?

Regardless, poor guy lost a few grand at the snap of a finger but hey it’s all about the love of the hobby.


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[Robison347]

Rolex owners are lucky that the jewelry they prefer happens to retain value, and sometimes gain value. Most jewelry - wedding rings, diamonds, bracelets - is bought for sentiment, not as investments. Few people sit on forums and discuss values of engagement rings or pearls.

If you want a given model of Rolex, and you acquire it at a price you found acceptable, isn’t that enough? Why does tomorrow’s value matter?

[NAUI1982]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I don’t know what the used watch mongers are buying BLROs for but I find it hard to believe that with 3-4 BLROs on hand and not moving that they are offering 19k. Unless our used watch mongers are backed by Saudi money - then I can see that happening .

For example, look at this used watch monger. Here he has a 2023 Pepsi that’s been listed for a few days. The monger just lowered the price to $19.5k. Assuming 10% margins he bought the watch at $17,550.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=962523

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And that’s on Oyster, not Jubilee which typically gets whored out for $1500 more…

I wish people wouldn’t feed the kitty! Buy retail, its obvious the supply chain is sending the BLRO through to dealers, and there are too many of them going right out the back door because people are impatient and need instant gratification.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by INC

"The HYPE is gone, the song is over
Thought I'd something more to say"

Home, home again…
I like be here when I can.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Standard or big rock LP, tuned 'China-like' trio... six specially handmade and tuned.....

We need specifics, man, specifics!!!

Sonor_drummer_cowbell.jpg

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

And that’s on Oyster, not Jubilee which typically gets whored out for $1500 more…

Wow, I didn’t even know that. Even more comical if that’s the case



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[Mystro]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Standard or big rock LP, tuned 'China-like' trio... six specially handmade and tuned.....

We need specifics, man, specifics!!!

Attachment 1463244

7” steel cowbell unmuted struck by a Vic Firth marching drum stick fortissimo on the 2 and 4 at a 118bpm and don’t push the tempo at the bridge after the bagpipe and gong solo….

[jb335]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Oh no, I understood what you meant. If a trusted used watch monger can’t sell for 19,500 you think a private seller is going to get $19k?

Regardless, poor guy lost a few grand at the snap of a finger but hey it’s all about the love of the hobby.


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Ok, again, maybe it’s closer to 18k. But if it’s on jubilee, I have no doubt he can sell for 18.

And again, I was initially replying to the guy that said he can only sell it for 13k. Which is obvsly ridiculous.


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[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by eman

Is Rolex watches taking the same route as cryptocurrency?

Buy to wear and enjoy. Rolex watches are not an investment.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by jb335

Ok, again, maybe it’s closer to 18k. But if it’s on jubilee, I have no doubt he can sell for 18.

And again, I was initially replying to the guy that said he can only sell it for 13k. Which is obvsly ridiculous.


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OK.

I think he’ll be more right than wrong in that assessment over the next few months as inventory carrying costs add up and depreciation sets in


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[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

And that’s on Oyster, not Jubilee which typically gets whored out for $1500 more…

I wish people wouldn’t feed the kitty! Buy retail, its obvious the supply chain is sending the BLRO through to dealers, and there are too many of them going right out the back door because people are impatient and need instant gratification.

I agree!

Also, SMH when I see forum sellers trying to pawn off BNIB watches for sale that's way above MSRP.. oh well to each of their own.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by kopi-c

I agree!

Also, SMH when I see forum sellers trying to pawn off BNIB watches for sale that's way above MSRP.. oh well to each of their own.

Agreed!

Here’s another one of my personal favorite of the used watch mongers. Here’s he’s listing for a substantial premium as “unworn”…

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=954191

Gotta love the desperate attempt to squeeze profit from a watch you can’t offload to meet your margins.

Probably was traded to another used watch monger in an effort to shift inventory around without losing too much margin.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

OK.

I think he’ll be more right than wrong in that assessment over the next few months as inventory carrying costs add up and depreciation sets in


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More right than wrong that a BLRO on jubilee is going to 13k?!? Ok ok ok. I’ll have what you’re having tonight.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by jb335

More right than wrong that a BLRO on jubilee is going to 13k?!? Ok ok ok. I’ll have what you’re having tonight.


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You joined in 2017 so I can see why that would be out of context for you


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I don’t know what the used watch mongers are buying BLROs for but I find it hard to believe that with 3-4 BLROs on hand and not moving that they are offering 19k. Unless our used watch mongers are backed by Saudi money - then I can see that happening .

For example, look at this used watch monger. Here he has a 2023 Pepsi that’s been listed for a few days. The monger just lowered the price to $19.5k. Assuming 10% margins he bought the watch at $17,550.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=962523

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I like how you cherry pick the less desired Oyster vs Jubilee model, and used instead of new, both of which add thousands more in value Sure, an oyster Pepsi, used, is more like $17.5.




Here's a fact, stone cold offer on tap so it's not speculation, a REAL offer/market value. Brand new Pepsi on Jubilee can get a buy offer from multiple greys for $19.5. Straight up, within minutes confirmed deal. You guys can say 'oh the sky is falling' but it's an opinion and nothing more. White Daytona and Jubilee Pepsi are still pulling insane premiums, with buyers to back it up. and this will continue for years to come, as what person on a 'list' will decline a watch, when they either 1. truly want it, or 2. can resale same day for thousands in profit.

So for example the guy saying 'oh you lost $8k by paying $21k', no, not at all. He could cash out today, and lose $1500 tops, as thats to a DEALER. Could probably private sale it for what he paid, or ~$20k to a dealer who has a confirmed order waiting to be filled.

I'm all for a good/healthy discussion but everybody is ignoring facts and trying to pigeon hole their argument to justify their opinions. Come on now. and I'm not even saying this as somebody who wants everything to stay unobtanium. I'm just being a realist after witnessing the last 5 years and things not nosediving like so many predicted. I think where we're at now is pretty close to a new baseline for a lot of models to be honest.

[Starhutch]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Apparently, it's of interest to some...why the blindfold?

I think the costs and market conditions of our hobby are relevant, kind of like always.

JMHO -

Do you ever ask yourself why you worry about cost and market conditions? Yes, many of us here need a blindfold.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

You joined in 2017 so I can see why that would be out of context for you


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And you joined in 2018.

Yeah, and home prices are going to what, 2011 levels too?

You’re a sky is falling guy. Always a recession or market crash around every corner. Keep calling for doom and gloom…


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