Expect even lower supply!

[YYZed]

Lots of speculation but when grey market and flippers scooping up these watches and selling for over retail for a few years now, it’s not a normal market. My money is on a major shakeup and dive in prices if this COVID deal persists for any length of time. I mean the whole world is going to be impacted by this virus. Apparently, 800k Rolexes are produced per year? Someone can confirm that?

[calishine]

No lower supply at all.

OP, YOU yourself got a piece from the vault. And buyers just aren’t there like they were before the world crisis.

Nothing absurd, but we are going towards a buyer’s market.

[sapper]

Let’s look at two cases and extrapolate the data. All rough numbers.
S. Korea 3.3% infection rate (they are doing well with this)
Diamond Princess 25% infection rate (this was a sh!t show)

US population 330 million.
Infection rate 3.3% - 25%
10,890,000 - 82.5 million infected
Current WHO mortality rate 3.4%
370,260 - 2.8 million dead in the US.

Global population 7.8 billion.
Infection rate 3.3% - 25%
257 million - 1.95 billion
Current WHO mortality rate 3.4%
8.7 million - 66 million dead world wide

Most likely a safe vaccine will be ready for distribution in 18 months.

These are really rough numbers based on incomplete information. I hope I am wrong about everything in this post. What happens if I’m not?

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by sapper

Let’s look at two cases and extrapolate the data. All rough numbers.
S. Korea 3.3% infection rate (they are doing well with this)
Diamond Princess 25% infection rate (this was a sh!t show)

US population 330 million.
Infection rate 3.3% - 25%
10,890,000 - 82.5 million infected
Current WHO mortality rate 3.4%
370,260 - 2.8 million dead in the US.

Global population 7.8 billion.
Infection rate 3.3% - 25%
257 million - 1.95 billion
Current WHO mortality rate 3.4%
8.7 million - 66 million dead world wide

Most likely a safe vaccine will be ready for distribution in 18 months.

These are really rough numbers based on incomplete information. I hope I am wrong about everything in this post. What happens if I’m not?

This’ll definitely put a dent in Rolex sales. Probably not Patek though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

Lighten up Francis ...

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by sapper

Let’s look at two cases and extrapolate the data. All rough numbers.
S. Korea 3.3% infection rate (they are doing well with this)
Diamond Princess 25% infection rate (this was a sh!t show)

US population 330 million.
Infection rate 3.3% - 25%
10,890,000 - 82.5 million infected
Current WHO mortality rate 3.4%
370,260 - 2.8 million dead in the US.

Global population 7.8 billion.
Infection rate 3.3% - 25%
257 million - 1.95 billion
Current WHO mortality rate 3.4%
8.7 million - 66 million dead world wide

Most likely a safe vaccine will be ready for distribution in 18 months.

These are really rough numbers based on incomplete information. I hope I am wrong about everything in this post. What happens if I’m not?

Come on ... not even close. Those mortality rates are based on those most effected coming forward and getting help once deep into the sickness. Take the S. Korean mortality rates, which are far more accurate because they tested everyone, and therefore had a lot more numbers in the denominator.

307,000 tested
8,565 infected (2.7% infection rate)
91 deaths (1.06% mortality rate)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...navirus-cases/

[YYZed]

S Korea is a well-oiled machine. Their govt says "self-quarantine," they say "how long?" Most countries do not operate like this. I'm guessing (hoping) it's not as grim as 25% infected (though Gavin Newsom even suggested 56% infection rate in Cali) but you also can't compare S Korea's numbers to the rest of the world.

I don't think the high high end market (Patek, A Lange) will be majorly impacted but the more I think about it, I'm betting the stainless Rolex market in particular will tank.

[WS9D]

So if im in the national guard, what is the best rolex to deploy with?


Sorry had to break this up a bit to give people the chance to collect themselves

[scheneider]

some people that wanted rolex in the last months will not have the capacity to buy them in the near future. do the math.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by YYZed

S Korea is a well-oiled machine. Their govt says "self-quarantine," they say "how long?" Most countries do not operate like this. I'm guessing (hoping) it's not as grim as 25% infected (though Gavin Newsom even suggested 56% infection rate in Cali) but you also can't compare S Korea's numbers to the rest of the world.

I don't think the high high end market (Patek, A Lange) will be majorly impacted but the more I think about it, I'm betting the stainless Rolex market in particular will tank.

Lol we have idiots in flocks on the beach in Florida getting drunk and being interviewed by need stations saying ‘I don’t care if I get corona’.

America’s infection rate will more than likely be MUCH worse than other countries....perhaps the worst in the world.

[westcoastghost]

One thing that I have not seen mentioned is that there is a rush to get USD, other countries are flocking to it as it is the world's currency. We have seen AUD and GBP vs USD tank overnight. If you look at watch prices, a brand new Pepsi from AU/GB dealers are dropping to all time lows due to exchange rates. I am seeing sub $16K USD for a new Pepsi which is the first time I have ever seen this, and it is just the beginning.

Many world economies are not as service based as the US, and they will not come back online as quickly. Even if you see a manufacturing based economy like China come back online after several months, their customers (US, EU, etc) are now going through the same thing they were and likely means less activity for China in the short term. Rolex watches will be allocated differently, you will see gray dealers in a tough spot if they financed their inventory. The biggest threat to the US is every company facing liquidity issues, I would assume there will be mass layoffs, defaults, etc. We can not quantify it yet since we do not know the level of involvement the government will have. My bet is that you will see some stainless sport models in showrooms by this summer (sub, sub date, but I doubt you will see a Pepsi sitting).

Someone mentioned a 10K dow, while I think this will end up being overstated, we have gone from nearly 30K to 20K in a month, and it is highly likely we see another 30% drop. There are many low margin businesses in the US that can not sustain 30 days without cash flow (restaurants/hospitality sector), and government won't bail them all out. The 20% unemployment rate quoted by Mnuchin was likely to scare government into action, but it isnt too far fetched given the already sharp spike in unemployment applications, coupled with the sharp decline in oil prices.

The people who will not have their lives changed materially by any of this, if they were looking for a watch they likely have it. There are probably a small percentage of people who are ready and willing to buy the watch they've been waiting for (outside of the very rare like White Daytonas). I do believe many of those within that small percentage you willl find actively posting on here, myself included lol.

[Jets_fan44]

Keep calm and Rolex on

[tanask211]

Seriously the hype has to stop or at least cool down.

Sent from my HMA-L29 using Tapatalk

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by socalwatchcollector

+1 Close to 25000 people die from hunger EVERY day and another 25000 tomorrow and every day after that. This virus won't touch those numbers by a long shot.

This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.

Total? Yes, most definitely. Daily (as I think that poster was insinuating), not, this virus will never come close to killing 25,000 per day for an extended period.

[Jona]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.

Not a good idea to spread hyperbole and panic thru pure speculation.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.

Agreed. People are still underestimating this virus. The damage has not even begun yet. This is just the beginning.

[Maiden]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

I dont know, H1N1 60 MILLION American's contracted. 300 000 hospitlizations, and over 15k deaths. Not sure about worldwide statistics, and I honestly dont know if this is more deadly or contagious. Just some perspective. There are not even 300k cases worldwide yet I think? Looks like the Malaria drug may be a breakthrough, Dow futures up. Again I don't know or pretend to know squat but based on this I think its a tad early to say the sky is falling.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

If we all do our part, including the government. They need to open up the piggy bank push 2+ trillion into the economy and we as citizens just stay home, do not go out for a couple of weeks we can peak out by April/May and get back to business by 3rd quarter. BOTH need to happen for a quick recovery. China is already in second gear, we can do the same.

+1


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Claven2]

Originally Posted by LAREALTOR

With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.

LOL. Nice try at stimulating sales.

What will really happen - lots of leveraged people will see that Rolex on their wrist as a safety net to make rent/mortgage/car payments.

Not too many people will pay over $15K for a pepsi when the exchange forum may see upwards of 50 of them listed use under $10k, in like-new shape.

Expect a boom in used watch sales on the forum within about 3 weeks or so. Very sad, but very true.

[aurenas]

Originally Posted by LAREALTOR

With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.

Poor market speculation attempt

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by claven2

lol. Nice try at stimulating sales.

What will really happen - lots of leveraged people will see that rolex on their wrist as a safety net to make rent/mortgage/car payments.

Not too many people will pay over $15k for a pepsi when the exchange forum may see upwards of 50 of them listed use under $10k, in like-new shape.

Expect a boom in used watch sales on the forum within about 3 weeks or so. Very sad, but very true.

+1

[Wcdhtwn]

I’d love to see a list of things that were improved by being hysterical. This is a bad situation, we will get past it.

[tgyberg]

Need a touch of humor and to smile at least a little

[OrangeKenny]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

I’d love to see a list of things that were improved by being hysterical. This is a bad situation, we will get past it.

1) Vibrators

[Bosscheto]

I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia
-2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000.
- 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers.
And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity.

Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those.
Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age.

This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc.

Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We

This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario.

Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ...

Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ...

[richard371]

Also with this being a health crisis the Apple watch is proving more useful than ever. I wear mine 24/7 to track my activity, stress (heart rate pattered), sleep notifications when working remote etc. You could not give me another Rolex right now.

[LuxLemon]

Originally Posted by richard371

Also with this being a health crisis the Apple watch is proving more useful than ever. I wear mine 24/7 to track my activity, stress (heart rate pattered), sleep notifications when working remote etc. You could not give me another Rolex right now.

C'mon..

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by richard371

Also with this being a health crisis the Apple watch is proving more useful than ever. I wear mine 24/7 to track my activity, stress (heart rate pattered), sleep notifications when working remote etc. You could not give me another Rolex right now.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia
-2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000.
- 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers.
And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity.

Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those.
Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age.

This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc.

Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We

This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario.

Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ...

Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ...

This has to be the best analysis i have seen yet. Thank you for your input. Be safe!