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#61 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: SoCal
Posts: 54
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Lots of speculation but when grey market and flippers scooping up these watches and selling for over retail for a few years now, it’s not a normal market. My money is on a major shakeup and dive in prices if this COVID deal persists for any length of time. I mean the whole world is going to be impacted by this virus. Apparently, 800k Rolexes are produced per year? Someone can confirm that?
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#62 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 129
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No lower supply at all.
OP, YOU yourself got a piece from the vault. And buyers just aren’t there like they were before the world crisis. Nothing absurd, but we are going towards a buyer’s market. |
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#63 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 39
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Let’s look at two cases and extrapolate the data. All rough numbers.
S. Korea 3.3% infection rate (they are doing well with this) Diamond Princess 25% infection rate (this was a sh!t show) US population 330 million. Infection rate 3.3% - 25% 10,890,000 - 82.5 million infected Current WHO mortality rate 3.4% 370,260 - 2.8 million dead in the US. Global population 7.8 billion. Infection rate 3.3% - 25% 257 million - 1.95 billion Current WHO mortality rate 3.4% 8.7 million - 66 million dead world wide Most likely a safe vaccine will be ready for distribution in 18 months. These are really rough numbers based on incomplete information. I hope I am wrong about everything in this post. What happens if I’m not? |
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#64 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Itinerant
Watch: 79010sg
Posts: 8,282
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Quote:
This’ll definitely put a dent in Rolex sales. Probably not Patek though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#65 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 9,034
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Quote:
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#66 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 9,034
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Quote:
307,000 tested 8,565 infected (2.7% infection rate) 91 deaths (1.06% mortality rate) https://www.statista.com/statistics/...navirus-cases/ |
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#67 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: SoCal
Posts: 54
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S Korea is a well-oiled machine. Their govt says "self-quarantine," they say "how long?" Most countries do not operate like this. I'm guessing (hoping) it's not as grim as 25% infected (though Gavin Newsom even suggested 56% infection rate in Cali) but you also can't compare S Korea's numbers to the rest of the world.
I don't think the high high end market (Patek, A Lange) will be majorly impacted but the more I think about it, I'm betting the stainless Rolex market in particular will tank. |
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#68 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Real Name: Steve
Location: Shasta
Watch: es..More Watches!
Posts: 2,407
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So if im in the national guard, what is the best rolex to deploy with?
Sorry had to break this up a bit to give people the chance to collect themselves |
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#69 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Singapore/London
Posts: 547
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some people that wanted rolex in the last months will not have the capacity to buy them in the near future. do the math.
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#70 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
America’s infection rate will more than likely be MUCH worse than other countries....perhaps the worst in the world. |
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#71 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 50
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One thing that I have not seen mentioned is that there is a rush to get USD, other countries are flocking to it as it is the world's currency. We have seen AUD and GBP vs USD tank overnight. If you look at watch prices, a brand new Pepsi from AU/GB dealers are dropping to all time lows due to exchange rates. I am seeing sub $16K USD for a new Pepsi which is the first time I have ever seen this, and it is just the beginning.
Many world economies are not as service based as the US, and they will not come back online as quickly. Even if you see a manufacturing based economy like China come back online after several months, their customers (US, EU, etc) are now going through the same thing they were and likely means less activity for China in the short term. Rolex watches will be allocated differently, you will see gray dealers in a tough spot if they financed their inventory. The biggest threat to the US is every company facing liquidity issues, I would assume there will be mass layoffs, defaults, etc. We can not quantify it yet since we do not know the level of involvement the government will have. My bet is that you will see some stainless sport models in showrooms by this summer (sub, sub date, but I doubt you will see a Pepsi sitting). Someone mentioned a 10K dow, while I think this will end up being overstated, we have gone from nearly 30K to 20K in a month, and it is highly likely we see another 30% drop. There are many low margin businesses in the US that can not sustain 30 days without cash flow (restaurants/hospitality sector), and government won't bail them all out. The 20% unemployment rate quoted by Mnuchin was likely to scare government into action, but it isnt too far fetched given the already sharp spike in unemployment applications, coupled with the sharp decline in oil prices. The people who will not have their lives changed materially by any of this, if they were looking for a watch they likely have it. There are probably a small percentage of people who are ready and willing to buy the watch they've been waiting for (outside of the very rare like White Daytonas). I do believe many of those within that small percentage you willl find actively posting on here, myself included lol. |
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#72 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Canada
Watch: And Learn
Posts: 418
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Keep calm and Rolex on
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#73 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 317
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Seriously the hype has to stop or at least cool down.
Sent from my HMA-L29 using Tapatalk |
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#74 |
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,349
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This virus is going to exceed that by a long shot, the virus is spreading with exponential growth.
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#75 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Total? Yes, most definitely. Daily (as I think that poster was insinuating), not, this virus will never come close to killing 25,000 per day for an extended period.
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#76 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2019
Location: USA
Watch: 116618LN
Posts: 1,399
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#77 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: new york
Watch: PAM111, BLNR
Posts: 242
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Agreed. People are still underestimating this virus. The damage has not even begun yet. This is just the beginning.
__________________
PAM 111 GMT II - 116710 BLNR |
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#78 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Canada
Posts: 3,650
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Quote:
__________________
Rolex 116613LN Rolex 16610LN Omega Seamaster Aqua Terra 41mm Omega Geneve Tag Heuer Aquaracer WAY2112 Orient Ray 2 |
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#79 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: usa
Posts: 747
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Quote:
+1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#80 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: OTTAWA
Posts: 374
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Quote:
What will really happen - lots of leveraged people will see that Rolex on their wrist as a safety net to make rent/mortgage/car payments. Not too many people will pay over $15K for a pepsi when the exchange forum may see upwards of 50 of them listed use under $10k, in like-new shape. Expect a boom in used watch sales on the forum within about 3 weeks or so. Very sad, but very true. |
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#81 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Toronto
Posts: 252
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Quote:
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#82 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: new york
Watch: PAM111, BLNR
Posts: 242
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Quote:
__________________
PAM 111 GMT II - 116710 BLNR |
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#83 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Houston
Watch: SkyD, SD43, GMT2
Posts: 5,022
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I’d love to see a list of things that were improved by being hysterical. This is a bad situation, we will get past it.
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#84 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2019
Real Name: Tory
Location: Mpls, MN
Watch: D-Blue
Posts: 636
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#85 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Houston, TX
Watch: 16570 Polar
Posts: 329
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#86 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Europe
Posts: 185
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I am not gonna try to predict the market, but I have never seen something like this. The whole fucking economy is stopping, and the effect will be incredible in Switzerland.
-1 No tourism in the next two quarters - large number of buyers of watches are tourists in Switzerland, mostly Asia -2 All shops closed, probably partial subsidiary from the government, but Rolex and Patek are paying salaries for 2-3 months with no work. Rolex is over 6000 employees, Patek over 2000. - 3 This year, the entire year neither Rolex nor Patek at any time will have all their retailers operational at the same time. We are going to full lock down in the next 48 hours (most likely) we are talking no economic activity at all. Mass lay offs on consultants, investment bankers - high earners who are these companies main customers. And you think those premiums will not go down? First, the gray dealers will dump stock on the market to save themselves, which will plummet the prices, second the ADs will fight for survivor and put whatever they can to get quick liquidity, Third the companies themselves will fight for liquidity. Baselworld was not canceled - was postponed, which means the organizers kept the cash, so you have Rolex and Patek with a massive wage budget, and a greatly hit distribution network to fight for survival, in a global recession? I am not buying on MSRP, the market flipped completely, I have mortgage etc. You are not on lock-down yet in America, you have only horror stories from Europe. But this is going to hit you even harder, huge number of ppl living bellow the poverty line, homeless people, illegal immigrants, good luck quarantining those. Today I watched a Nurse in Yverdon, Canton de Vaud in Switzerland, crying that they are choosing patients for a ventilator based on age. This is Switzerland for God Sake, as long as this virus is active somewhere in Europe or Africa, you will have disrupted air travel, logistics etc. Also, another thing - this crisis will radically change how we make business. When the dust settles, there will be big questions, why are we outsourcing so much important staff like drug ingredients, masks, medical equipment. We are reaching shortage of masks in 7 days for the doctors in Switzerland ???!!! The home country of two of the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world. We This is not about the number of deaths, this virus is killing the global economy, imagine 95% of population on lock down???!!!! for 6-7 weeks in the most optimistic scenario. Right now, They are dumping watches in US, because only in US from the major markets you are having operational AD's, soon they will close as well. This whole lack of product is over, Patek will switch its entire strategy, Rolex as well, maybe they will keep the Daytona rare, but all the rest will be on Display, maybe even on a small discount, and the precious metal on enormous discount, and that is optimistic. A lot of watch companies will be bankrupt ... Fuck gray dealers big time, these guys are dead now, none is buying the stock, good luck to Richard Mille as well ... |
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#87 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: sf
Watch: 116500LN White
Posts: 1,853
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Also with this being a health crisis the Apple watch is proving more useful than ever. I wear mine 24/7 to track my activity, stress (heart rate pattered), sleep notifications when working remote etc. You could not give me another Rolex right now.
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#88 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: North America
Watch: 116710 BLNR
Posts: 154
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#89 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Real Name: Chris
Location: .
Watch: Daytonas/Subs/GMTs
Posts: 12,609
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#90 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: new york
Watch: PAM111, BLNR
Posts: 242
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Quote:
__________________
PAM 111 GMT II - 116710 BLNR |
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